Coronavirus outbreak

[Jaimito]

Here is an interview with a positive case from the cruise ship, now being isolated in a Japanese hospital. 

 

Sounds like it was so mild and she didn't even worried about it.  Vast majority of people infected don't get sick or die, the real mortality is more likely below 2%. The PCR test only detects for virus. If someone recovered from it, they will be negative on this test. If they have an antibody test, perhaps the number of cases will be much higher. 

 

 

 

[nuckin_futz]

China's Hubei province has reported 14,840 new coronavirus cases

Wed 12 Feb 2020 23:49:14 GMT

 

Big number of new coronavirus cases reported from the province.

Wuhan is the epicentre of the epidemic, capital of Hubei 

 

The authorities in Hubei have revised their diagnostic standard for coronavirus cases

[riffraff]

“Don’t believe the hype”

 

-flava flav

[MoneypuckOverlord]

3 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

China's Hubei province has reported 14,840 new coronavirus cases

Wed 12 Feb 2020 23:49:14 GMT

 

Big number of new coronavirus cases reported from the province.

Wuhan is the epicentre of the epidemic, capital of Hubei 

 

The authorities in Hubei have revised their diagnostic standard for coronavirus cases

gotta be kidding me......

[DonLever]

Looks like the virus will eventually reach us.  It is a matter of time.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/coronavirus-outbreak-just-beginning-outside-china-says-expert/ar-BBZVpo1?ocid=spartanntp

 

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The coronavirus epidemic may be peaking in China where it was first detected in the central city of Wuhan but it is just beginning in the rest of the world and likely to spread, a global expert on infectious diseases said on Wednesday.

The Chinese government's senior medical adviser has said the disease is hitting a peak in China and may be over by April. He said he was basing the forecast on mathematical modelling, recent events and government action.

Dale Fisher, chair of the Global Outbreak Alert & Response Network that is coordinated by the World Health Organization, said that predicted "time course" may well be true if the virus is allowed to run free in Wuhan.

"It's fair to say that's really what we are seeing," he told Reuters in an interview. "But it has spread to other places where it's the beginning of the outbreak. In Singapore, we are at the beginning of the outbreak."

 

 

 

[Gurn]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/deaths-in-china-from-novel-coronavirus-top-1300-as-country-expands-diagnosis/ar-BBZWpGu?ocid=spartandhp

 

"

The Chinese province at the center of the novel coronavirus outbreak reported a record spike in deaths Thursday, bringing the total number to more than 1,300 people globally, as experts warned the epidemic could "create havoc" in less prepared countries.

Health authorities in Hubei announced an additional 242 deaths and 14,840 cases of the virus, known officially as Covid-19, as of Thursday morning, the largest single-day rise since the epidemic began and almost 10 times the number of cases confirmed the previous day.

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The government explained the spike as due to a change in how cases are tabulated -- the total will now include "clinically diagnosed cases" after rising numbers of residents complained about the difficulty in getting tested and treated for the virus.

"Clinically diagnosed cases" are those patients who demonstrate all the symptoms of Covid-19 but have been unable to be scientifically tested, or died before they were tested. The hope is that more people will be able to receive treatment by allowing doctors to diagnose them with the virus.

Almost 34,000 patients have been hospitalized across Hubei, the central Chinese province of which Wuhan is capital, including 1,400 or so in a critical condition. So far, 3,441 patients have recovered and been discharged.

Globally, the virus has infected more than 60,000 people, with the vast majority of cases in mainland China. On Thursday, China said it has confirmed 59,804 cases on the mainland, an increase of 15,152 cases from the previous day.

The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in the country now stands at 1,367, according to China's National Health Commission.

Only two deaths have occurred outside of mainland China.

World Health Organization (WHO) officials described China's decision to broaden their definition of what constitutes a confirmed case as a necessary measure.

"When the situation is evolving, you change your definition just to make sure you can monitor the disease accurately, and this is what they have done recently -- change the case definition to incorporate more cases that were not in the initial case definition, but also integrate cases that are both asymptomatic or with little symptom," Dr. Sylvie Briand, director of WHO's Infectious Hazards Management Department, said during a press conference Wednesday.

However, the major increase in the number of deaths and cases of the coronavirus appears to dash hopes that the outbreak was leveling off. It comes as additional cases were confirmed on the quarantined cruise ship docked in the Japanese city of Yokohama, and in the US, where the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned the country "can and should be prepared for this new virus to gain a foothold."

In the UK too, a new case was confirmed Wednesday in the capital London, with health officials warning that more were likely to follow.

WHO officials had previously expressed some optimism at the apparently stabilizing outbreak in China, but even then they cautioned that the virus could still spread elsewhere.

"This outbreak could still go in any direction," WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Wednesday.

"We have to invest in preparedness," Tedros said, adding that richer countries should help invest in countries with a weaker health system. He warned the virus could "create havoc" if it reaches a country whose health system is not capable of handling such an epidemic.

 

Case number confusion

 

The massive increase in the number of cases exposes confusion over just how to diagnose the virus globally, not least in central China, where residents with symptoms had expressed frustration that they were not able to get treatment due to a delay in diagnosis.

Those delays could be significant, with some reports of patients waiting up to a week for their results, as the testing kits were sent from Hubei to a lab in Beijing. While there have been efforts to speed up the process, scientific testing of samples is difficult and time consuming, and allowing doctors to diagnose patients will enable far more people to receive treatment, including in several purpose-built hospitals dedicated to treating the virus in Wuhan.

Delays in testing are not confined to China. In the US, the CDC currently requires that all potential samples are shipped to its central laboratories for full testing.

In its guidance for hospitals, the CDC also warns that "in the early stages of infection, it is possible the virus will not be detected." However, it adds that if a person is showing symptoms but tests negative for Covid-19, it is likely that the virus is not the cause of their illness.

Speaking at a US Senate hearing on Wednesday, Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, said that testing was not been done aggressively enough and should be expanded to cover more symptoms.

"I think that we should be leaning in very aggressively to broaden diagnostic screening right now, particularly in communities where there was a lot of immigration, where these outbreaks could emerge, to identify them early enough that they'll be small enough that we can intervene to prevent more epidemic spread in this country," he said.

Gottlieb pointed to Singapore, which has now identified around 50 cases, to make a point about the US, which receives similar numbers of travelers from China every year.

"On a statistical basis, there's no reason to believe that if Singapore got implants of this virus, we didn't. You would expect them to be identified earlier in Singapore" as a densely populated island, he said. "But it does suggest, at least to me, that we probably have some community spread right now that we just haven't identified yet."

He also questioned the quality of data coming out of China -- something many outside observers have been doing, and the radical shift in how cases are diagnosed will likely not help.

"I don't trust the reporting in China, and I also believe that the China numbers reflect the most severe cases, so we're getting a skewed view of the case fatality rate and how severe this is," Gottlieb said.

Counting milder or asymptomatic cases could make the case fatality rate drop significantly, he added, but "even a case fatality rate of .2 or .5 could be catastrophic if this is highly contagious and spreads around the world."

Speaking at the same hearing, Asha George, executive director of the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense, said that China may be limited in its testing and reporting resources, versus simply "a lack of desire on the part of the Chinese government to report."

In public health schools, George said students are taught to assume they don't have complete data and account for cases they don't yet know about.

"We're often taught to multiply by seven or eight times what you've been told. For every one case you see, there are seven or eight out there that you don't," she explained. "So that means actually we'd be looking at hundreds of thousands of cases. I think that's the scale at which we should be planning."

 

Cruise ship misery

 

Outside of China, the largest single outbreak remains on a cruise ship in the Japanese port of Yokohama, south of Tokyo.

Japanese Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said an additional 44 virus cases had been confirmed on board the

Diamond Princess as of Thursday, bringing the total number on board to 219.

Kato did not give a breakdown by nationality of the new cases, nor of passengers versus crew. CNN's latest tally indicates that at least 24 Americans have tested positive for the virus aboard the ship.

The Health Minister also said that people who had tested negative for the virus and are over 80 years old, or have a non-virus medical condition requiring attention, will be allowed to leave the ship and move to a government medical facility, if they wish. He did not give a timeline for that process. Already on Tuesday, an unknown number of passengers with non-virus medical conditions were allowed to disembark.

Frustration is growing, however, among the thousands passengers and crew on board, who have been unable to leave the ship for a week now.

 

Speaking to CNN, one crew member said she fears the crew are at greater risk of being exposed to the outbreak because they are not being quarantined in the same way as the passengers and are having to continue working to take care of the guests.

Sonali Thakkar, 24, from Mumbai, said she and her colleague -- who she shares a cabin with -- became ill with a headache, cough and a fever two days ago. Her supervisor told her to stop working and she is currently staying in her cabin in isolation.

"I'm not eating very well and have been having fevers," she told CNN in a Skype call Wednesday. "We all are really scared and tense."

Thakkar fears that the virus may be spreading around the crew members. At least five have already tested positive for the virus.

There was more positive news for another cruise ship, which has been struggling to find a port to dock at for several days after countries turned it away due to fears over a potential coronavirus outbreak.

The MS Westerdam had been in a holding pattern at sea after it was denied entry by Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan despite the ship having no confirmed cases on board. It is due to arrive in Cambodia Thursday morning, after authorities there approved it to dock there.

Tedros, the WHO director, thanks Cambodia for welcoming the ship.

"This is an example of the international solidarity we have consistently been calling for," the WHO director-general said, adding that "outbreaks can bring out the best and worst in people" and that "stigmatizing individuals or entire nations does nothing but harm the response."

 

 

 

Over 1300 people dead.

[HKSR]

On 1/27/2020 at 12:40 PM, HKSR said:

What I was trying to say is that death numbers can be easily determined via autopsy or post death examination.  The number of infections worldwide, on the other hand, are MUCH more difficult to determine.  There likely are WAY more than the amount reported as infected, but there's just no way to verify them unless the person checks into a hospital and is examined.

 

Is it a delay in showing symptoms?  or is it a delay in the infected being accounted for?  Only those involved would know.

 

On 2/12/2020 at 4:07 PM, nuckin_futz said:

China's Hubei province has reported 14,840 new coronavirus cases

Wed 12 Feb 2020 23:49:14 GMT

 

Big number of new coronavirus cases reported from the province.

Wuhan is the epicentre of the epidemic, capital of Hubei 

 

The authorities in Hubei have revised their diagnostic standard for coronavirus cases

And there we go.  Exactly what I was talking about.  The number of infections is likely way higher than what has been reported.  Deaths you can confirm.  Infections are way more difficult.  I suspect the death rate is 1% or less of those infected.

[Boudrias]

Over on smalldeadanimals they are showing video of dead people in the streets and health workers carrying guns. Not much detail. 

[nuckin_futz]

China reports 5,090 new coronavirus cases for 13 February

Fri 14 Feb 2020 02:30:42 GMT

 

National Health Commission official figures for mainland China as of end Feb 13

How its progressed:

• Jan 17: 41
• Jan 19: 62
• Jan 20: 201
• Jan 21: 291 
• Jan 22: 440
• Jan 24: 830
• Jan 25: 1,287
• Jan 26: 1,975
• Jan 27: 2,744
• Jan 28: 5,974 
• Jan 29: 7,711
• Jan 30: 9,692
• Jan 31: 11,791
• Feb 1: 14,380 (death toll 304)
• Feb 2: 17,205 (death toll 361)
• Feb 3: 20,438 (death toll 425)
• Feb 4: 24,324 (death toll 490)
• Feb 5: 28,018 (death toll 563)
• Feb 6: 31,161 (death toll 636)
• Feb 7: 34,564 (death toll 722)
• Feb 8: 37,198 (death toll 811)
• Feb 9: 40,171 (death toll 908)
• Feb 10: 42,638 (death toll 1,016)
• Feb 11: 44,653 (death toll 1,113)
• Feb 12: 59,805 (death toll 1,367)
• Feb 13: 63,851 total cases. Death toll now 1,380.  6,723 discharged from hospital.

[DonLever]

From the Diamond Princess:

To date, 218 people on the luxury line r have fallen ill from the coronavirus in less than two weeks, not counting a fire department officer who escorted an infected passenger off the ship. That firefighter tested positive for the virus Friday despite the fact that he was wearing a mask and googles.

[CBH1926]

U.S. to evacuate American citizens aboard quarantined cruise ship in Japan -WSJ

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-to-evacuate-american-citizens-aboard-quarantined-cruise-ship-in-japan-wsj/ar-BB101iN7?li=BBnb7Kz

[DonLever]

Ottawa Woman claims racism by Norwegian Cruise line because they ban people with China,  Hong Kong, and Macau passports.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/ottawa-woman-banned-from-cruise-thanks-to-racist-policy/ar-BB100Yih?ocid=spartandhp

 

A family celebration has turned sour after an Ottawa woman was told she won't be able to board a cruise ship because she's Chinese.

Ming Yang, a permanent resident of Canada for 15 years, was supposed to sail from Florida on a seven-day cruise with nine family members and friends this weekend, but a new Norwegian Cruise Line policy states the company will deny boarding to anyone holding a Chinese, Hong Kong or Macau passport, regardless of where they live.

The purpose of the policy is to prevent the spread of the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, the company said. But Yang said she hasn't visited China in at least six months.

"I feel I've been targeted just because I am a Chinese passport holder," Yang said. "The policy is very racist, and it's targeting a certain race."

Yang said she booked the seven-day cruise through Sunwing Airlines. The ship is supposed to depart Miami on Saturday with stops in Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico — half a world away from the epicentre of the viral coronavrius outbreak. 

Yang said neither Norwegian Cruise Line nor Sunwing reached out to her about the policy, which she found out about from a news report. 

"Any guest that holds a Chinese, Hong Kong, or Macau passport, will be unable to board any of our ships, regardless of residency," states a policy on Norwegian Cruise Line's website that was updated on Wednesday.

"The safety, security and well-being of our guests and crew is our number one priority. We have proactively implemented several preventative measures outlined below due to growing concerns regarding Coronavirus infections in China."

 

[Boudrias]

Apparently Chinese citizens are fly into Canada and then flying to the USA to avoid the American flight restrictions. When I went thru YVR last week I saw no overt screening for sick people at security. But that was domestic not international. I don't know what tools they could be using.  

[Alflives]

6 hours ago, DonLever said:

Ottawa Woman claims racism by Norwegian Cruise line because they ban people with China,  Hong Kong, and Macau passports.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/ottawa-woman-banned-from-cruise-thanks-to-racist-policy/ar-BB100Yih?ocid=spartandhp

 

A family celebration has turned sour after an Ottawa woman was told she won't be able to board a cruise ship because she's Chinese.

Ming Yang, a permanent resident of Canada for 15 years, was supposed to sail from Florida on a seven-day cruise with nine family members and friends this weekend, but a new Norwegian Cruise Line policy states the company will deny boarding to anyone holding a Chinese, Hong Kong or Macau passport, regardless of where they live.

The purpose of the policy is to prevent the spread of the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, the company said. But Yang said she hasn't visited China in at least six months.

"I feel I've been targeted just because I am a Chinese passport holder," Yang said. "The policy is very racist, and it's targeting a certain race."

Yang said she booked the seven-day cruise through Sunwing Airlines. The ship is supposed to depart Miami on Saturday with stops in Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico — half a world away from the epicentre of the viral coronavrius outbreak. 

Yang said neither Norwegian Cruise Line nor Sunwing reached out to her about the policy, which she found out about from a news report. 

"Any guest that holds a Chinese, Hong Kong, or Macau passport, will be unable to board any of our ships, regardless of residency," states a policy on Norwegian Cruise Line's website that was updated on Wednesday.

"The safety, security and well-being of our guests and crew is our number one priority. We have proactively implemented several preventative measures outlined below due to growing concerns regarding Coronavirus infections in China."

 

If she’s Canadian, why doesn’t she have a Canadian passport? 

[-DLC-]

Hmmm, interesting when you start thinking of the things that are affected in a long arm reach way:

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/amid-virus-outbreak-concerns-hockey-stick-shortage/

 

Quote

The coronavirus outbreak that began in China is affecting the production of hockey sticks used by the world’s top players, raising concerns about a potential shortage. Two major manufacturers, Bauer and CCM, have factories in China that have closed.

 

Players are beginning to make preparations in case stick supplies dry up...

 

[Chicken.]

4 hours ago, Alflives said:

If she’s Canadian, why doesn’t she have a Canadian passport? 

She isnt canadian shes a permanent resident, china doesnt allow dual citizens and she wont give up her chinese passport I assume

[Alflives]

Just now, Chicken. said:

She isnt canadian shes a permanent resident, china doesnt allow dual citizens and she wont give up her chinese passport I assume

Then dump her back in China and leave her there until she becomes a Canadian and gets our passport.  What’s she going to do next; become leader if the Conservative Party and run for Prime Minister?  

[NewbieCanuckFan]

37 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

Hmmm, interesting when you start thinking of the things that are affected in a long arm reach way:

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/amid-virus-outbreak-concerns-hockey-stick-shortage/

 

 

heh, let the pros use "Super Blades" like we used to as kids playing in the street when the stick broke/got damaged badly down there.

[smokes]

It isn't just about the numbers. It's about people and thier hard work. There are so many stories of sacrifice and hardship but most outlets only talk about numbers.

 

In China's coronavirus epicenter, volunteers keep stricken city moving

By Huizhong Wu

BEIJING (Reuters) - A day after the city government of Wuhan locked down all of its public transportation to keep the coronavirus outbreak that began in the city from spreading further, three nurses found themselves stranded outside Hankou train station.

They had returned early from the Lunar New Year holiday to go back to work at Tongji hospital, just five kilometers away, but laden with luggage and food from concerned relatives, they had no way to reach there.

Seeing their request for help online, 53-year-old Wuhan resident Chen Hui donned a face mask and went to pick them up at the station, which is just down the street from the seafood market believed to be where the coronavirus emerged.

Wuhan, where 11 million people live, has been paralyzed by containment efforts by health authorities. With public transit shut down and taxis and ride-hailing operations also suspended, ordinary citizens are risking their health to ferry medical staff to and from work and getting key supplies such as food and masks to people needed to keep the city running.

"Through the experience of this epidemic, I really feel that we people of Wuhan are so united. Everyone in our group has such a strong sense of mission," said Chen, who runs an ad hoc ride service through a messaging group on China's ubiquitous WeChat app, to find volunteer drivers for people working in vital roles, like doctors and health workers.

Long days are common for the volunteers, some of whom are lending a hand from outside Wuhan. Shen Honghua, a volunteer who lives in eastern Zhejiang province, sits with two phones and her computer every day to find hotel rooms for some of the thousands of medical workers arriving in Wuhan.

"I wouldn't sleep until 3 a.m. or 4 a.m.," she said.

While no-one has tallied the number of rides given or donations sent, one informal alliance of hoteliers who volunteered their rooms estimated that in the first week of the shutdown, hotels in Wuhan sheltered over 6,000 medical workers.

The work is not without risk or consequence. Many volunteers in the city use pseudonyms and keep their work hidden from their families who may otherwise try to stop them. Some have also fallen ill after being exposed to the virus during their work. Officials in Wuhan and Hubei province have repeatedly warned of shortages in medical equipment to guard against infection including masks, even as Beijing exhorts manufacturers to boost production.

One 50-year-old volunteer, who has not told his family what he is doing and declined to give his real name, said he wore a mask purchased from a grocery store when he started ferrying doctors and nurses to and from work.

"After they got in the car, they said what you're wearing is completely below standard," he recalled from one of his first rides. He now delivers donations of food, medical supplies and protective gear to other volunteers as well as people whose family members have fallen ill from the new virus.

Chen's family found out about her volunteer work when her daughter called one day during a delivery run. Hearing the noise in the background, her daughter suspected that she was outside and pressed for the truth, asking for a video call. Chen said she had no choice but to tell the truth.

"She said to me, 'I'm asking, are you going out tomorrow? If you go out tomorrow, then I'm not going to wear a face mask. I'm going to stand outside the gate to my building and let myself get infected.'"

"If you get infected, then how can I live?"

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinas-coronavirus-epicenter-volunteers-keep-085824956.html

By Huizhong Wu

,

Reuters•February 14, 2020

[DonLever]

(HealthDay)—Coronavirus is most infectious when patients are at the peak of their illness, health officials from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

 

"Based on what we know now, we believe this virus spreads mainly from person to person among close contacts, which is defined as about six feet, through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes," Nancy Messonnier, M.D., director of the CDC National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said during a media briefing on Friday. "People are thought to be the most contagious when they are most symptomatic; that is when they are the sickest."

 

"Some spread may happen by touching contaminated surfaces and then touching the eyes, nose and mouth," Messonnier said. "But remember, we believe this virus does not last long on surfaces. Some spread may happen before people show symptoms. There have been a few reports of this with the new coronavirus, and it is compatible with what we know about other respiratory viruses, including seasonal flu. But right now, we don't believe these last two forms of transmission are the main driver of spread."