Expansion draft, who are you keeping ?

[IBatch]

20 hours ago, mll said:

There will be better goalies available.   Goalies like Cal Petersen, Fleury or Kuemper have been performing beyond their environment per the private tracking company CSA - posted the overview a few pages back.  Holtby has been performing below expected.

 

He’s owed 5.7M next season in salary.  At the signing several pointed out that it was savvy by Benning as it will make him less likely to be picked by Seattle.  That was before the season started and with hope that Clark could get him back on track.  He’s been relegated to a backup role.

 

So if Ian Clark can't get a Vezina winner, plus for a time a vezina finalist or close to it back on track, is it possible that maybe he's good at his job and not some miracle worker?   Markstrom only had to clean up his early goals to change the entire outcome, and Demko before Clark, was already doing it at every level.   Maybe some folks are putting too much on his abilities then are actually deserved, maybe not.   But Holtby hadn't won us a game yet has he? 

[aGENT]

37 minutes ago, IBatch said:

So if Ian Clark can't get a Vezina winner, plus for a time a vezina finalist or close to it back on track, is it possible that maybe he's good at his job and not some miracle worker?   Markstrom only had to clean up his early goals to change the entire outcome, and Demko before Clark, was already doing it at every level.   Maybe some folks are putting too much on his abilities then are actually deserved, maybe not.   But Holtby hadn't won us a game yet has he? 

Careful, you don't want to break down another Benning is an idiot narrative 

[JM_]

10 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Careful, you don't want to break down another Benning is an idiot narrative 

I don't think Holtby was a mistake. He was there as insurance and I have no doubt having him to begin the year was important in Demko's development. Demko needed some time to adjust to taking over, and he's still pretty darn new at it. If we end up with Holtby for next year thats fine too, even with Demko's bridge deal we shouldn't be terribly overspent in goal. 

 

If Jim can gather up a few more picks we might be able to entice Seattle to take hm anyway. Too soon to panic. 

[aGENT]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I don't think Holtby was a mistake. He was there as insurance and I have no doubt having him to begin the year was important in Demko's development. Demko needed some time to adjust to taking over, and he's still pretty darn new at it. If we end up with Holtby for next year thats fine too, even with Demko's bridge deal we shouldn't be terribly overspent in goal. 

 

If Jim can gather up a few more picks we might be able to entice Seattle to take hm anyway. Too soon to panic. 

Yeah, it's a mid range, two year deal for a cup winning, former Vezina goalie to be offered up as expansion fodder 

 

Apparently it's an AWFUL deal 

 

Never mind he had no real preseason and little practice time to play in behind, first a tire fire, and now a hobbled, half AHL squad.

 

Something tells me we haven't seen peak Canuck-Holtby yet.

 

[Chris12345]

22 hours ago, mll said:

There will be better goalies available.   Goalies like Cal Petersen, Fleury or Kuemper have been performing beyond their environment per the private tracking company CSA - posted the overview a few pages back.  Holtby has been performing below expected.

 

He’s owed 5.7M next season in salary.  At the signing several pointed out that it was savvy by Benning as it will make him less likely to be picked by Seattle.  That was before the season started and with hope that Clark could get him back on track.  He’s been relegated to a backup role.

 

Sure...but Holtby vs? Myers? Baer? No way. Plus a 1 year deal with a potential deal at the deadline.

[Chris12345]

1 hour ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I don't think Holtby was a mistake. He was there as insurance and I have no doubt having him to begin the year was important in Demko's development. Demko needed some time to adjust to taking over, and he's still pretty darn new at it. If we end up with Holtby for next year thats fine too, even with Demko's bridge deal we shouldn't be terribly overspent in goal. 

 

If Jim can gather up a few more picks we might be able to entice Seattle to take hm anyway. Too soon to panic. 

Holby is perfect. Sure he's struggling but the combo is great.

Edited March 26, 2021 by Chris12345

[BigTramFan]

On 3/13/2021 at 6:35 PM, Elias Pettersson said:

Alexander Volkov...

So now he's off the table for Seattle. TBL GM too good for something like that to happen, not just losing the player for nothing but losing the opportunity to shed cap in the ED. I think TBL will add as much as a 1st round pick as long as SEA picks one of Palat, Johnson, Killorn, Gourde or McDonagh. And as frustrating as it is for another team to help TBL out of their cap trouble, SEA will take that deal.

[BigTramFan]

On 3/25/2021 at 3:47 PM, DSVII said:

I really think Myer's contract will guarantee Seattle passes on him for Jake.. And if Seattle takes him, we have cap space to maneuver in a free agency that has Dmen like Parayko, Seth Jones, Lindholm, Rielly, Pulock, Manson to name a few.

These Dmen are not UFA until 2022, so there would be a 1 year gap between losing Myers and having a shot at them. You also can't expect any of these guys to not get resigned by then, except maybe Manson and Lindholm. But the others are legit #1D (or believed to be by their franchise).

 

If we are looking to sign a UFA RHD in 2021 then we have the likes of Hamilton, Larsson, Savard, Hamonic, Montour to choose from. And the value of these few players may end up being quite high because quite a few teams will have had their blueline thinned out by Seattle.

 

On 3/25/2021 at 3:47 PM, DSVII said:

Use the extra slot at Defense to try and swing a hockey trade for a Dman we can protect from a team that is going to lose a defenseman for nothing. Otherwise keep this as is.

Can you give an example of the trade that VAN could make with another team? I haven't seen one example yet of a trade that another team would accept that would bring us a Dman worth protecting over Schmidt, Myers and OJ.

 

I can think of a couple that bring a cheap Dman that meets the exposure requirements so that Myers or OJ don't need to be exposed, but that's much different to what you suggest.

[Elias Pettersson]

4 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

So now he's off the table for Seattle. TBL GM too good for something like that to happen, not just losing the player for nothing but losing the opportunity to shed cap in the ED. I think TBL will add as much as a 1st round pick as long as SEA picks one of Palat, Johnson, Killorn, Gourde or McDonagh. And as frustrating as it is for another team to help TBL out of their cap trouble, SEA will take that deal.

Tampa will be close to $9 million over the cap next year. They will need to get rid of 2 of those players you mentioned not just one. Good luck getting rid of McDonagh’s contract for only a first round pick. They will need to trade their entire 2021 draft class to dump that $9 million. 
 

I guess it was worth it in order to win a Cup. If they win another Cup this year then probably nobody in Tampa will care about this summer’s draft class.  
 

If Tampa had not won the Cup last year I wonder how many people would be calling their GM “smart”. I think “lucky” would be the better word. 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Elias Pettersson

[mll]

16 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I don't think Holtby was a mistake. He was there as insurance and I have no doubt having him to begin the year was important in Demko's development. Demko needed some time to adjust to taking over, and he's still pretty darn new at it. If we end up with Holtby for next year thats fine too, even with Demko's bridge deal we shouldn't be terribly overspent in goal. 

 

If Jim can gather up a few more picks we might be able to entice Seattle to take hm anyway. Too soon to panic. 

Seattle not picking Holtby doesn’t equate to it being a bad deal.  When the contract structure was disclosed there were comments that it was smart as it would make Seattle hesitate to pick him.  He wasn’t signed to be picked but to help Demko transition to a starter.  Jones, Jake Allen, Murray, Kuemper in Minnesota looked to have become number 1s but at some point struggled and their teams had no one to help them out.  

 

Going from one goalie coach/system to another can take time to adjust.  As Vancouver improves defensively so should his numbers.  He also had to transition to a different role - going from starter to playing less regularly is not always evident as it’s not the same rhythm.  Cap might be a bit tight but the timeline to truly contend is not next season.

 

A 2 year bridge would bring Demko to free agency at the same time as Miller and Horvat.  Given his age they might prefer to try and go long term.

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by mll

[JM_]

19 minutes ago, mll said:

Seattle not picking Holtby doesn’t equate to it being a bad deal.  When the contract structure was disclosed there were comments that it was smart as it would make Seattle hesitate to pick him.  He wasn’t signed to be picked but to help Demko transition to a starter.  Jones, Jake Allen, Murray, Kuemper in Minnesota looked to have become number 1s but at some point struggled and their teams had no one to help them out.  

 

Going from one goalie coach/system to another can take time to adjust.  As Vancouver improves defensively so should his numbers.  He also had to transition to a different role - going from starter to playing less regularly is not always evident as it’s not the same rhythm.  Cap might be a bit tight but the timeline to truly contend is not next season.

 

A 2 year bridge would bring Demko to free agency at the same time as Miller and Horvat.  Given his age they might prefer to try and go long term.

 

no it doesn't but I guarantee if Holtby isn't picked that will be the rant on here. 

 

I'd bet long on Demko now personally, I'd be very happy to see something like 5x5 for him. 

[DSVII]

7 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

These Dmen are not UFA until 2022, so there would be a 1 year gap between losing Myers and having a shot at them. You also can't expect any of these guys to not get resigned by then, except maybe Manson and Lindholm. But the others are legit #1D (or believed to be by their franchise).

 

If we are looking to sign a UFA RHD in 2021 then we have the likes of Hamilton, Larsson, Savard, Hamonic, Montour to choose from. And the value of these few players may end up being quite high because quite a few teams will have had their blueline thinned out by Seattle.

 

I'm of the opinion that next year is a wash anyway, and this lines up with Benning's stated 2 year goal. Again, i'm pretty confident that seattle would prefer a Jake or Lind in the expansion draft to Myers. Or hopefully Holtby if they elect to not take say Jake Allen. 

 

If Seattle is committed to spending $6 mil on a RHD, they would take Dumba from Minnesota imo.

 

I'd prefer to sign a stop gap RHD if it comes to it, so another 1 year deal with Hamonic or even try to go for Montour. But the real value is having cap space ready in that 2022 UFA class. I don't know if you watch NFL, but similar to what the Patriots did this offseason, planning to have a maxmimum cap available to sign two coveted tight ends in Smith and Henry. I'm not worried if Seattle takes Myers if it means having 6 mil available to invest in a still flat cap world.

 

But again, I don't think they do. This is my bias speaking. I'm not sure Myers can maintain a Top 4 level of play for the next 3-4 years. I'll add I don't mind being proven wrong on this.

 

If we somehow bring on a depth Dman for cheap to expose and protect Myers. I'm not completely opposed to it.

 

 

Quote

Can you give an example of the trade that VAN could make with another team? I haven't seen one example yet of a trade that another team would accept that would bring us a Dman worth protecting over Schmidt, Myers and OJ.

 

I can think of a couple that bring a cheap Dman that meets the exposure requirements so that Myers or OJ don't need to be exposed, but that's much different to what you suggest.

Honestly, I don't think I can with the limited information I have. 

 

This is a tough trade, and I won't fault management if they can't get it done. It is a nice to have, and why they are paid the big bucks to explore this. Because this is essentially a three team trade and only works if you and the opposing GM agree on what Seattle is going to do and the opposing GM has not been able to get Seattle to get off their pick. It also requires creativity and seeing if the other team also has expansion slots available.

 

Kole Lind is a prospect we are projected to lose (i personally protect him over Jake) but in the event we find a team that has less depth at forward to protect, we can offer him as a swap plus picks. (Carolina for instance). Motte is our most tradeable forward atm but I don't move him for anything less than a surefire D.

 

But some Dmen available that we could 'snipe'

 

Solid top 4 - pipe dream but see if there's a market (I would offer our high tier prospects and picks for these, like a Dipietro, Lind)

Nathan Beaulieu, Joel Edmundson, Brady Skejci, Devon Toews (unlikely, it's more likely avs pay Seattle to not draft him)

 

Prospects/Projects 

Oliver Kylngton, Jake Bean, Sebastien Aho, Sami Niku

 

I think if you are confident that you can extract a value defenseman that is better than Rafferty without paying too much, you explore this, but if the price is too high. I won't fault them for staying pat. 

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by DSVII

[BigTramFan]

13 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Tampa will be close to $9 million over the cap next year. They will need to get rid of 2 of those players you mentioned not just one. Good luck getting rid of McDonagh’s contract for only a first round pick. They will need to trade their entire 2021 draft class to dump that $9 million. 
 

I guess it was worth it in order to win a Cup. If they win another Cup this year then probably nobody in Tampa will care about this summer’s draft class.  
 

If Tampa had not won the Cup last year I wonder how many people would be calling their GM “smart”. I think “lucky” would be the better word. 

Pretty sure they will find a way around the cap situation next season. Assuming they won't be able trade away any large contracts, likely something like sending Palat to Seattle with pick(s); buying out Johnson & Rutta; resigning Foote, Goodrow and McElhinney to cheap deals; fill their bottom 6 and depth D with ELCs and a few UFA vets signed to league minimum deals with the "chance to win a cup" (maybe the likes of E Staal, L Schenn, Jordie Benn).

 

The below roster would be possible. They are going to have to play that game of keeping their core pieces while minimising cost, not just next season but ongoing. Even in 2022-23 they have an even worse cap situation and Point to resign.

 

2021-22 possible roster:

Gourde Point Kucherov

Killorn Cirelli Stamkos

Goodrow Staal Raddysh

Joseph Stephens Maroon

(Barre-Boulet)

 

Hedman Foote

Sergachev Cernak

McDonagh Schenn

(Benn)

 

Vasilivskiy

(McElhinney)

[BigTramFan]

9 hours ago, DSVII said:

But the real value is having cap space ready in that 2022 UFA class. I don't know if you watch NFL, but similar to what the Patriots did this offseason, planning to have a maxmimum cap available to sign two coveted tight ends in Smith and Henry. I'm not worried if Seattle takes Myers if it means having 6 mil available to invest in a still flat cap world.

Again I really don't think ANY of those #1 Dmen will make it to UFA in 2022. Its a real risk to set your team up with a big hole that you hope to fill through free agency in 2022, only to have that entire group pass you by. 

 

9 hours ago, DSVII said:

But some Dmen available that we could 'snipe'

 

Solid top 4 - pipe dream but see if there's a market (I would offer our high tier prospects and picks for these, like a Dipietro, Lind)

Nathan Beaulieu, Joel Edmundson, Brady Skejci, Devon Toews (unlikely, it's more likely avs pay Seattle to not draft him)

I really wouldn't be trading Lind or Dipietro for any of those guys except Toews. But it is likely that the Av's protect him anyway. Plus all those vets you mention are LHD. We really don't need any more LHD with young guys in Hughes, Juolevi, Rathbone on left side. We are more in need of RHD.

[DSVII]

14 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

Again I really don't think ANY of those #1 Dmen will make it to UFA in 2022. Its a real risk to set your team up with a big hole that you hope to fill through free agency in 2022, only to have that entire group pass you by. 

 

I really wouldn't be trading Lind or Dipietro for any of those guys except Toews. But it is likely that the Av's protect him anyway. Plus all those vets you mention are LHD. We really don't need any more LHD with young guys in Hughes, Juolevi, Rathbone on left side. We are more in need of RHD.

That's totally fair. Although we don't know for sure. This offseason we saw guys like Pietrangelo and Krug leave for new teams. In the flat cap era, I think the chances we'll see the bigger chance of an excess of dmen available due to the cap squeeze for other teams so the risk is there but the overall market inefficiency can give us a brief window where that risk isn't as big as it appears. 

 

Agreed as well on the Toews, but Colorado has to protect Erik Johnson (NMC) and they're getting Makar. So that means either Girard or Toews is available to be selected by Seattle. I think they will most likely pay Seattle not to select them, but in the off chance they aren't able to budge on that, there is some leeway there. (again this relies on a lot of factors)

 

I'm also not 100% sold on having RHD for the sake of it, because they are so short in supply, I believe this is causing teams to overvalue RHD and pay premium for lesser skilled RHD when cheaper, more skilled LHD are available. (would you rather have Myers at $6x6 mil or Jake Gardner  at $4x4 mil) If it is for a stop gap, I would like to see if we can try and scout similar players like Schmidt who are capable of playing their offwing. I think part of me also wants to do this because it goes back to Kevin Bieksa's commentary about how a righty to righty  one timer (so presumably lefty to lefty ala Ovie/Carlson) is actually faster than a lefty to righty one timer.

 

 And if we needed more RHD and foresaw a deficiency in future UFA classes, Benning should not have chosen to let two of them walk for nothing in free agency (that is another argument altogether, but qualifying Jake and overpaying Holtby were choices he made over signing the RHD)

Edited March 27, 2021 by DSVII

[BigTramFan]

1 hour ago, DSVII said:

That's totally fair. Although we don't know for sure. This offseason we saw guys like Pietrangelo and Krug leave for new teams. In the flat cap era, I think the chances we'll see the bigger chance of an excess of dmen available due to the cap squeeze for other teams so the risk is there but the overall market inefficiency can give us a brief window where that risk isn't as big as it appears. 

 

Agreed as well on the Toews, but Colorado has to protect Erik Johnson (NMC) and they're getting Makar. So that means either Girard or Toews is available to be selected by Seattle. I think they will most likely pay Seattle not to select them, but in the off chance they aren't able to budge on that, there is some leeway there. (again this relies on a lot of factors)

 

I'm also not 100% sold on having RHD for the sake of it, because they are so short in supply, I believe this is causing teams to overvalue RHD and pay premium for lesser skilled RHD when cheaper, more skilled LHD are available. (would you rather have Myers at $6x6 mil or Jake Gardner  at $4x4 mil) If it is for a stop gap, I would like to see if we can try and scout similar players like Schmidt who are capable of playing their offwing. I think part of me also wants to do this because it goes back to Kevin Bieksa's commentary about how a righty to righty  one timer (so presumably lefty to lefty ala Ovie/Carlson) is actually faster than a lefty to righty one timer.

 

 And if we needed more RHD and foresaw a deficiency in future UFA classes, Benning should not have chosen to let two of them walk for nothing in free agency (that is another argument altogether, but qualifying Jake and overpaying Holtby were choices he made over signing the RHD)

Piet and Krug were purposely not resigned by their teams due to their expense and the fact that younger players had taken over their #1D role.

 

I think the Av's will go the 8 skaters route and protect more than 3 Dmen. They may even get EJ to waive his NMC so that they can protect Makar, Girard, Graves and Toews.

 

Seriously I would rather have Myers over Gardiner despite the $2m price difference.

 

Lastly, I was gutted when they let Tanev walk. I didn't mind that Stecher left but Tanev was a big blow. However, when JB traded for Schmidt and signed Hamonic I thought that they were really good moves and an overall improvement in our D corps.

 

 

[DSVII]

1 hour ago, BigTramFan said:

Piet and Krug were purposely not resigned by their teams due to their expense and the fact that younger players had taken over their #1D role.

 

I think the Av's will go the 8 skaters route and protect more than 3 Dmen. They may even get EJ to waive his NMC so that they can protect Makar, Girard, Graves and Toews.

 

Seriously I would rather have Myers over Gardiner despite the $2m price difference.

 

Lastly, I was gutted when they let Tanev walk. I didn't mind that Stecher left but Tanev was a big blow. However, when JB traded for Schmidt and signed Hamonic I thought that they were really good moves and an overall improvement in our D corps.

 

 

Yes, and who is to say there won't be a similar situation in 2022? We don't know obviously but it can happen.

 

I agree, Avs will find a way to keep their D core intact. 

 

That $2 mil difference is Stetcher right there, and signing myers in 2019 was essentially handing Tanev his future walking papers. I think Gardiner is a slightly better player than Myers especially given the cap hit but I respect that, we can have different opinions on a player.

 

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by DSVII

[BigTramFan]

54 minutes ago, DSVII said:

Yes, and who is to say there won't be a similar situation in 2022? We don't know obviously but it can happen.

 

I agree, Avs will find a way to keep their D core intact. 

 

That $2 mil difference is Stetcher right there, and signing myers in 2019 was essentially handing Tanev his future walking papers. I think Gardiner is a slightly better player than Myers especially given the cap hit but I respect that, we can have different opinions on a player.

 

 

I'm not exactly sure what you are saying regarding Myers vs Gardiner. Do you mean that we should have signed Gardiner at $4m instead of Myers at $6m?

As you say that would have given us space to keep Stetcher. And I am guessing that you also think we should've kept Tanev? Which would then mean we wouldn't have had cap space for Schmidt. And Flames likely resign Hamonic since they don't get Tanev. 

 

So our alternative D corps we COULD have had if we signed Gardiner instead of Myers would be:

Hughes Tanev

Edler Stecher

Gardiner Benn

Juolevi

 

I really don't think this is better than what we have right now. I really don't like Gardiner as a player. Stech was owned by larger forwards and in the playoffs. Tanev was great, but Schmidt is also excellent.

[DSVII]

2 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

I'm not exactly sure what you are saying regarding Myers vs Gardiner. Do you mean that we should have signed Gardiner at $4m instead of Myers at $6m?

As you say that would have given us space to keep Stetcher. And I am guessing that you also think we should've kept Tanev? Which would then mean we wouldn't have had cap space for Schmidt. And Flames likely resign Hamonic since they don't get Tanev. 

 

So our alternative D corps we COULD have had if we signed Gardiner instead of Myers would be:

Hughes Tanev

Edler Stecher

Gardiner Benn

Juolevi

 

I really don't think this is better than what we have right now. I really don't like Gardiner as a player. Stech was owned by larger forwards and in the playoffs. Tanev was great, but Schmidt is also excellent.

Not not saying we specifically need to get Gardiner. I used Gardiner as an example as he was another UFA in 2019. If it were up to me I would not have pursued an expensive UFA have signed a cheaper stop gap and then splurge in 2020 (like Beaulieu or Chariot). I know it wasn't popular here but I still thought in 2019 we could have used another down year, similar to how we are approaching this season. No expectations of playoffs and to stock up on picks and prospects before making the push.

 

Let's operate under the assumption we do have Gardiner.  Bottom line,  in this hypothetical example where we get Gardiner, it is my opinion the cap flexibility of that $2 mill is worth more than the skill gap between Myers and Gardiner. We can use that $2 million to go towards keeping Toffoli, or Tanev.

 

Stetcher is replaceable, we don't necessarily need to sign Stetcher, we could in theory still get Schmidt in that line up and get a cheaper goalie than Holtby. 

 

Hughes Tanev

Edler Schmidt

Gardiner Benn

Juolevi

 

Hypothetical D lineup - $24.2 million in Cap

Current D lineup - $22.8 million

 

Then sign a backup goalie for roughly $2-2.5 million. 

 

Again this is getting all too Armchair GMing with a lot of hypotheticals, but that was the ideal in my mind. I agree Schmidt is excellent, we were just not prudent with our cap spending to take advantage of this even going into the eleventh hour in 2020 (Holtby, Jake). What should have been Schmidt coming in to augment an existing competitive D core was in reality, Schmidt coming in to plug in a hole caused by our unforced error.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2021 by DSVII

[Chris12345]

Question/proposal?

 

Canucks trade Eriksson to the Wild for Dumba after the season. The Canucks then protect Dumba.

 

Three days later trade Dumba to the Wild for a 7th?

 

Legal? Possible?