Popular Post HKSR Posted January 19, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted January 19, 2022 We talk about how JT Miller's value is at an all-time high, but how do we quantify that? I did some research and the reality is, PPG players under 30 years old are RARELY traded. Especially ones that can play any forward position, has leadership qualities, brings an edge to his game, can play PP and PK, and simply has a passion for the game. Here are a few comparables that I was able to dig up... Mark Stone Position: Right Wing Age when traded: 27 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $7.35M AAV Years remaining on contract: UFA Year (last year) Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.95 PPG Traded from/to: OTT to VGK Traded for: With Tobias Lindberg for Oscar Lindberg, Erik Brannstrom, 2nd Round Pick (2020) Ryan O'Reilly Position: Centre Age when traded: 27 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $7.5M AAV Years remaining on contract: 6 Years Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.79 PPG Traded from/to: BUF to STL Traded for: Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, Tage Thompson, 1st Round Pick (2019), 2nd Round Pick (2021) Max Pacioretty Position: Left Wing Age when traded: 29 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $4.5M AAV Years remaining on contract: UFA Year (last year) Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.74 PPG Traded from/to: MTL to VGK Traded for: Tomas Tatar, Nick Suzuki, 2nd Round Pick (2019) Matt Duchene (Part 1) Position: Centre Age when traded: 26 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $6M AAV Years remaining on contract: 2 Years Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.66 PPG Traded from/to: COL to OTT Traded for: Kyle Turris, Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers, Conditional 1st Round Pick (2019), 3rd Round Pick Matt Duchene (Part 2) Position: Centre Age when traded: 28 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $8M AAV Years remaining on contract: 6 Years Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.76 PPG Traded from/to: OTT to CBJ Traded for: With Julius Bergman for Jonathan Davidsson, Vitaly Abramov, 1st Round Pick (2019), Conditional 1st Round Pick (2020) So what does our JT Miller look like compared to these guys? JT Miller Position: Centre Age when traded: 28 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $5.25M AAV Years remaining on contract: 2 Years Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.98 PPG So there we have it. JT Miller has the highest PPG average compared to all of the above. He also has the 2nd lowest cap hit, but has 2 years left rather than a UFA year. I'd also say that a centre will naturally be worth more than a winger. In my opinion based on the above, fair value for JT Miller would be a package that includes: 1. An NHL ready player that is a capable top 6 forward or top 4 defenceman 2. A top tier prospect 3. A 1st Round Pick Thoughts? 7 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcam Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Great post, I agree and there are a few more young player that I really like on Rangers under 25...Good trade partner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, wildcam said: Great post, I agree and there are a few more young player that I really like on Rangers under 25...Good trade partner... Based on my research, I think a package from NYR would have to look something like this: Chytil Schneider Blais 1st Neither Chytil or Blais are bonafide top 6 forwards, so their combined worth is about as much as a proven top 6 forward. Schneider is clearly the top tier prospect, and of course the 1st round pick. Could throw Strome into the mix, much he's a UFA, so brings about as much value as Blais or Chytil. I wouldn't want to see a package that doesn't include a proven player though. That's way too risky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Doesn't look like I was that far off in value from my Florida proposal thread: I'd say it's probably: Lundell Hornqvist 2nd Round Pick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dekey Pete Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 A lot. He would be a very valuable addition to a contender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Goose Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I think u gotta aim for an NHL ready prospect with legit ceiling & a good draft pick or young NHL player with potential Basically Id go for quality over quantity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Great post, nice to see some research behind things. He should command a ton, his cap hit and the remaining extra year of term make him extremely valuable to a contender with an aging core. If we retain his value goes even higher. The key for us I think is not to trade just for pure futures as we don't want to lose the room that is battling hard. Horvat and Boeser want to know we are planning on trying to win and not rebuilding from scratch. One of the pieces that comes back needs to be a blue chip young player (preferably a RHD) that is in the NHL right now but may be a year or two from his prime. A late 1st round pick isn't going to help us for at least 3 years if ever... it should be an extra piece of a package and not the main one. We should be able to get the top prospect from pretty much any team plus extra pieces. We should also be able to play teams off each other... do you think any team in the East wants to see the Rangers get Miller? Or Florida? They have to play defence to keep Miller out of their opposition's hands as well as considering adding him to their own. Until he proves otherwise by a bunch of bad moves, I trust Rutherford to handle this huge trade a lot more than Benning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
appleboy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 NY Schneider and Kakko. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasCanuck Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, HKSR said: We talk about how JT Miller's value is at an all-time high, but how do we quantify that? I did some research and the reality is, PPG players under 30 years old are RARELY traded. Especially ones that can play any forward position, has leadership qualities, brings an edge to his game, can play PP and PK, and simply has a passion for the game. Here are a few comparables that I was able to dig up... Mark Stone Position: Right Wing Age when traded: 27 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $7.35M AAV Years remaining on contract: UFA Year (last year) Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.95 PPG Traded from/to: OTT to VGK Traded for: With Tobias Lindberg for Oscar Lindberg, Erik Brannstrom, 2nd Round Pick (2020) Ryan O'Reilly Position: Centre Age when traded: 27 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $7.5M AAV Years remaining on contract: 6 Years Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.79 PPG Traded from/to: BUF to STL Traded for: Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, Tage Thompson, 1st Round Pick (2019), 2nd Round Pick (2021) Max Pacioretty Position: Left Wing Age when traded: 29 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $4.5M AAV Years remaining on contract: UFA Year (last year) Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.74 PPG Traded from/to: MTL to VGK Traded for: Tomas Tatar, Nick Suzuki, 2nd Round Pick (2019) Matt Duchene (Part 1) Position: Centre Age when traded: 26 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $6M AAV Years remaining on contract: 2 Years Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.66 PPG Traded from/to: COL to OTT Traded for: Kyle Turris, Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers, Conditional 1st Round Pick (2019), 3rd Round Pick Matt Duchene (Part 2) Position: Centre Age when traded: 28 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $8M AAV Years remaining on contract: 6 Years Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.76 PPG Traded from/to: OTT to CBJ Traded for: With Julius Bergman for Jonathan Davidsson, Vitaly Abramov, 1st Round Pick (2019), Conditional 1st Round Pick (2020) So what does our JT Miller look like compared to these guys? JT Miller Position: Centre Age when traded: 28 years old Cap Hit at time of trade: $5.25M AAV Years remaining on contract: 2 Years Points per game for the 3 seasons preceding trade: 0.98 PPG So there we have it. JT Miller has the highest PPG average compared to all of the above. He also has the 2nd lowest cap hit, but has 2 years left rather than a UFA year. I'd also say that a centre will naturally be worth more than a winger. In my opinion based on the above, fair value for JT Miller would be a package that includes: 1. An NHL ready player that is a capable top 6 forward or top 4 defenceman 2. A top tier prospect 3. A 1st Round Pick Thoughts? Yup, your estimate checks all my boxes. Miller isn't a UFA, he's not going to bolt at the end of this season, he's not a rental. Completely open to moving him, but I'd be looking for a Linden type of return. Linden got us McCabe, Bertuzzi and a pick that became Ruutu. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Great post, props for doing the research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 ditto on the great post @HKSR 3 hours ago, HKSR said: Based on my research, I think a package from NYR would have to look something like this: Chytil Schneider Blais 1st Neither Chytil or Blais are bonafide top 6 forwards, so their combined worth is about as much as a proven top 6 forward. Schneider is clearly the top tier prospect, and of course the 1st round pick. Could throw Strome into the mix, much he's a UFA, so brings about as much value as Blais or Chytil. I wouldn't want to see a package that doesn't include a proven player though. That's way too risky. this ^ seems like the right kind of package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Provost said: A late 1st round pick isn't going to help us for at least 3 years if ever... it should be an extra piece of a package and not the main one. Decent replacement for our missing 2nd though. Also (unless we're already in position to do so) could be packaged to move up for Jiricek or similar.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BPA Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Keep Miller. $7.5-$8M x 6-8yrs. Some combination of those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, BPA said: Keep Miller. $7.5-$8M x 6-8yrs. Some combination of those numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junkyard Dog Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 (edited) 6 hours ago, HKSR said: Based on my research, I think a package from NYR would have to look something like this: Chytil Schneider Blais 1st Neither Chytil or Blais are bonafide top 6 forwards, so their combined worth is about as much as a proven top 6 forward. Schneider is clearly the top tier prospect, and of course the 1st round pick. Could throw Strome into the mix, much he's a UFA, so brings about as much value as Blais or Chytil. I wouldn't want to see a package that doesn't include a proven player though. That's way too risky. For just Miller, I think this is fair value both sides. I think they keep Strome for a playoff push. He's been good and would be their own rental player. They wanted to add a top 6 player on top of what they have, they probably wouldn't want to part with him anyway. Blais I can see them parting with. They have some other big boys in the system that could replace him. He's also will be a 26 year old RFA and they might not want to commit long-term on him with other more important players needing re-ups the next 2 off-seasons(K.Miller, Kakko, Laf). He's a player who brings qualities we could use. I can see Rags being interested in Schenn or maybe even Motte as well. They were already said to be interested in MTL's Lehkonen. They've also been trying players like Schneider and Lundqvist at 3rd RD so Schenn would give them a bit of security. I am not sure how much more prospects/players they'd part with though on top of this. I reckon they might add picks for these guys. Edited January 20, 2022 by Junkyard Dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, aGENT said: And yet on the open market he. His contract is up he will command $9 million if he keeps to close to a PPG for another season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junkyard Dog Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Provost said: And yet on the open market he. His contract is up he will command $9 million if he keeps to close to a PPG for another season. Power forward scorer who plays physical, wins draws, carries his line, plays both special teams and produces at a PPG pace. No doubt he could get around 9M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Man Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, aGENT said: Best kept to four years if possible. His Vancouver time has energized his career. Remember AV's quiet comments about J.T.s maturation. Love him as a player but we can't go long term when the reward.. (after our playoff hopes are lost) will be so high. Edited January 20, 2022 by Cat Man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, Provost said: And yet on the open market he. His contract is up he will command $9 million if he keeps to close to a PPG for another season. Oh I'm not suggesting that's not what he'll get/is worth. We just shouldn't be the ones paying it. Last thing this team needs is a 35 year old, $8m+ Miller in the meat of our core's prime. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Man Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 hours ago, aGENT said: Decent replacement Kind of like a displacement replacement:) Remember AV's comments "I knew he"d figure it out" All to J.T.'s maturity and what Vancouver has done for him and what J.T. has done for Vancouver. Tough times. Love him as a player but we gotta sell high. All over 4 years at 7 maybe 8... after that well.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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