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Current Odds of Making the Playoffs

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allegend

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While I say all these optimistic things, we've seen this story before many times... 

How about coming out flat against NYI in our first full Capacity home game and going down 5-0. 

How about getting hammered in NJ in a critical game while we are catching up in the playoff race? 

With 9 games left, Canucks are easily capable of doing that twice against teams we should beat. Against good teams like Cgy, I have no idea which team will come out. 

Very realistic to go 6-3 or even 5-4 to end the season...

But then again, not impossible to go 7 - 1-1 either... 

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4 hours ago, CanucksJay said:

I think tiebreaker is regulation wins (RW) . So OT and shootout  doesn't count. We are tied with LA currently at 29 RW. We have a game in hand and if we are in a position at the end of the year where we are tied, the math is that we would have had to have more regulation wins. 

On the other hand, Vegas beats us in a RW tiebreaker... 

Yes, sorry i meant RW but typed ROW

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1 hour ago, CanucksJay said:

But then again, not impossible to go 7 - 1-1 either... 

Not impossible - though highly improbable. As much as I would love to see the team come together and slay the remaining games, like you said, they've been unable to generate the energy required to beat some pretty crappy teams, so I can't say I am fully confident they will be able to string that kind of record together. And even if they do, we rely on the Knights to lose most of their remaining games AND one of Dallas, Nashville or LA to also get in a similar funk.

 

So... possible? Sure. Is it gonna happen? Almost surely not. :(

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9 minutes ago, kloubek said:

Not impossible - though highly improbable. As much as I would love to see the team come together and slay the remaining games, like you said, they've been unable to generate the energy required to beat some pretty crappy teams, so I can't say I am fully confident they will be able to string that kind of record together. And even if they do, we rely on the Knights to lose most of their remaining games AND one of Dallas, Nashville or LA to also get in a similar funk.

 

So... possible? Sure. Is it gonna happen? Almost surely not. :(

Yeah you're being a realist and I'm being a complete hopeful for sure... 

That said, pretty amazing that Canucks are playing in important games with 9 games left.... Who would have thought this was possible when we were 8-15-2... 

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40 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

Yeah you're being a realist and I'm being a complete hopeful for sure... 

That said, pretty amazing that Canucks are playing in important games with 9 games left.... Who would have thought this was possible when we were 8-15-2... 

Well, not all of us can be fairweather fans like me. :) Nah, I'm actually at least generally supportive of the team and agree - with the start this team had, it's amazing it's even a conversation at this point in the season.

If you look at our record since Bruce took over, we are 27-13-8, or 64.6%, which if we were playing to that level from the start, the team would be 11th place currently. (Which doesn't sound as impressive as I thought it would, but it would firmly put us in a playoff spot) It's also a pa
ce of 106 points through an entire season. Is there still work to do? Of course. But I DO believe we are finally a playoff team - even given the current discussion of whether we will make the playoffs or not. 

 

I think Boeser, Garland, Petey, Podz, and Hogs are poised for better seasons next year. Then we have guys like Pearson, Myers, Horvat, who I believe all have potential to have better years too. (Yes, I know Horvat just set his goal record, but I still think he has more in him.) Then we also have a few young guys who may or may not hit. In any event, I think that in a couple of years we will see most of this team in it's full prime, and I believe we're going to see really exciting things. 

 

Mind you, I said most of the same stuff last year around this time. :)


 

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22 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

We’re not trying to catch Dallas. We are trying to catch LA and Vegas. If we run the table we would certainly overtake both of them. 

That's if all those teams literally collapse and win less than 50% of their remaining games...no matter how you slice it, the chances of the Nucks making the dance is slim ...like they can't make a mistake at all!!...all those other teams can afford a loss or two even....just enjoy the ride ....

ride raise the roof GIF

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23 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

I think 5% is generous.

 

I haven't done the math but if we run the present scenario, making it once every twenty times feels a little optimistic.

I'd say the odds if we beat Vegas are 100% that if we beat Vegas tomorrow, that well the odds go up a little and that we all have smiles on our face. 

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5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

I'd say the odds if we beat Vegas are 100% that if we beat Vegas tomorrow, that well the odds go up a little and that we all have smiles on our face. 

 

Yeah to be fair, unlike a wild card spot, grabbing 3rd in the division is at least a non-negligible possibility...but I'm not holding my breath.

 

If the season had 100 games, I would give the Canucks something like 50/50 but I think they are just going to run out of runway.

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27 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

Yeah to be fair, unlike a wild card spot, grabbing 3rd in the division is at least a non-negligible possibility...but I'm not holding my breath.

 

If the season had 100 games, I would give the Canucks something like 50/50 but I think they are just going to run out of runway.

Those Buffalo and Detroit missed points are definitely haunting us. 

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2 minutes ago, DSVII said:

Those Buffalo and Detroit missed points are definitely haunting us. 

 

Yeah I threw in the towel after those two games but...then the Bruce There it Is Canucks came back and won a few more in a row so...I suppose I can indulge a tiny bit of cautious cautious cautious optimism.

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6 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

Yeah I threw in the towel after those two games but...then the Bruce There it Is Canucks came back and won a few more in a row so...I suppose I can indulge a tiny bit of cautious cautious cautious optimism.

Yeah I'm about as excited about the Canucks playoff chances as I am of winning a Set for Life scratch 'n win ticket. i mean, there's always a chance, but deep down, I know the truth lol

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Doughty confirmed out for the season. Not sure if he is still as big a factor as he was before but still a loss for the Kings. 

Biggest concern is Vegas has got hot again winning 6 of their last 7 with Pacioretty back now too. 
 

  Kev

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On 4/10/2022 at 5:20 PM, Elias Pettersson said:

We’re not trying to catch Dallas. We are trying to catch LA and Vegas. If we run the table we would certainly overtake both of them. 

Yeah a lot has to do with their schedules are too, depending on how tough or lighter competition. At least we've had some time to rest by puck drop tomorrow but unless we play these last games like they actually are playoff games it's a toss up but we still can't afford to spot a whole first period or we're done like dinner. 

 Seems to me that's changed so let's hope they keep it up and press hard for a full 60 and then we might just get there but with Boeser out, it will be that much harder. Hope the rest of the season meant a month-ish and not much more so he can make it back in if we get to the post.. (crossing fingers at any rate)

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