The Contending Window for this team is the next 4 years and planning should be for that period

[*Buzzsaw*]

I am seeing a lot of posters talking about trading away huge parts of the team in the off season and suggesting we should be building for 5-7 years away.

 

I completely disagree.

 

This team was wasted for the last two years under Green.  He should have been gone in 2020. 

 

They would have been in the playoffs under a competent coach... they completely underachieved under Green.  Management has wasted two years when the team should have been gaining valuable playoff experience.

 

Depressing when you think of it that way, but there is a bright side... this team should surprise a lot of pundits next year.

 

Assuming Boudreau is here next year, I think getting into the playoffs should be a slam dunk... in fact I would expect them to place 2nd or 3rd in the division... (assuming we get some defensive additions in the off season!!!)

 

If you look at the personnel, all the key top six offensive players will be moving into the peak career age years of 24-32 in the next four years. 

 

Horvat - age is 28-31 over the 4 year span

Miller -  30-33

Pettersson -  24-27

Boeser -  25-28

Podkolzin -  21-24

Garland -  26 - 29

 

Miller would be 33, but his birthday is March 15, he has just turned 29, so most of the year he is younger... and 33 is still an age when a player, while he might not have a career season, has all the veteran savvy which is key in the playoffs.  Garland also has a March birthday.  Boeser's is in February.  Podz is younger than optimum, but this year has shown he is maturing faster than most power forwards... I think he will be playoff ready starting next year.  His birthday is in November at the start of the season.

 

Defense is not as optimal when you look at ages... but we already know there is a need to add bigger, younger D... to complement Hughes.  Hughes birthday is October 14 at the start of the season, so next year he is 24 nearly all year.  Myers is 32... his birthday his halfway through the season in February.  But D can play effectively later than forwards... they depend more on endurance and power, slow twitch muscle response rather than fast twitch.  So they can often play effectively till they are 34 or even 35.  Schenn is the worst case... his birthday is in November, so next year he is 33 most of the year.  But as mentioned, as our #1 priority we need a replacement for him on the Hughes pairing... Schenn should ideally be playing the 5/6.

 

Hughes -  24-27

Myers -  32-35

OEL -  31-34

Schenn -  33-36

 

The other younger D which are already in the roster are not likely key to the team's future plans... they will be 6/7's.  Of those Dermott and Burroughs could fill those roles.  The role of Poolman is a big question mark.  If he gets some decent coaching under Boudreau can his career be resurrected?  He does have the size the team needs.  If he could pair effectively with Schenn in the 5/6, then suddenly the team looks better.  I do not think he can fill the role as Hughes' partner.

 

The missing piece is the #2 D to pair with Hughes... which has be someone who is big, decently mobile and with a good shot... but someone who like Schenn focuses on being the D in that 1/2 pairing.

 

Finally we need to look at goaltending.  Yes, goalies play well into their mid '30's, but typically they have their career years between 28-31.

 

Thatcher Demko is 26, his birthday is in December, most of next year he will be 27.  He is the team's franchise goalie... in fact, he may be the team's franchise player.

 

Goalies of the caliber of Demko do not fall off trees... look at the problems Edmonton, Calgary, (before Markstrom) and many other teams have trying to find the backstopper who will take them deep into the playoffs.

 

Canucks management need to plan around what are likely to be Demko's best years.

 

I think as mentioned, the key to improving this team into a real contender is finding a big, physical, defensively skilled, young D to complement Hughes.  This does not have to be a #1 D... we already have our #1 in Hughes.  But that first D pairing, which is currently Myers/OEL, will inevitably change as they age to another pairing, one of whom will be Hughes, and one of which will be someone the team acquires. 

 

Canucks management need to set as their priority acquiring that D.

 

That may mean trading away one of the team's offensive assets... (absolutely not Petey or Podz and hopefully not Miller)  Or maybe they can find a nugget in free agent signings, (has to be a bargain though) or in another team's discards, or in Europe?

 

There are other parts which the team needs... they do not have a good 3rd line.... right now the current third line of Lamikko/Highmore/Lockwood is actually what should be next year's 4th line.  The current 4th line will probably see Richardson leave due to age... Pearson should be back and can slot into the third.  Maybe Nils Hoglander can come back and fill a spot on the third... he clearly was injured this year and hopefully will be better.  I don't see Petan there... hasn't shown the scoring finish and doesn't have the physical size.  Sheldon Dries is more physical, has speed and is showing flashes, but is a long way off.  Then you have Dickenson and Chiasson... Dickenson would work on the third line if he can continue his improved play under Boudreau... not sure about Chiasson... he is not so good in the third line role... he shines in top six and PP roles... but I don't think he is good enough to slot top six.  Ideally the team signs a big, tough center in the off season who can chip in 10 goals a year and be solid defensively.

 

I think this team is closer than a lot of the fans think.  It has been underachieving, but next year can be the real turnaround. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by *Buzzsaw*

[King Heffy]

If we could somehow get Manson, that would cover up a lot of deficiencies.  He's a very rich man's Schenn and the perfect partner for Hughes.

[aGENT]

Petey and Hughes not even in their primes. Major structural and succession issues at RD, lack of speed, size and grit, PK'ers, 3C, lack of organizational depth to support the roster and overly reliant on Demko.

 

Their play under Bruce has been admirable, but it doesn't change those realities.

 

Our window is +/- 2-7 years.

[khay]

I don't think anyone is suggesting to build for 5-7 years away. Even a full fledged rebuild shouldn't take that long. And we are too good for a full blown rebuild anyways.

 

The goal is to start our window in 2 years.

 

Look at Minnesota Wilds. It seemed like they were bound to enter a rebuild when we kicked their a$$es in the bubble.

 

With good drafting, trades, and some luck, they turned things around in 2 seasons. Now they have two star players in Kaprizov and Fiala (who will get paid about 9 mil on average between the two). Then, they've got good players signed at reasonable money to supplement the two stars and young players with star potential like Boldy but others are coming up as well.

 

Look at that team from line 1 to 4 and pairings 1 to 3. I don't see many weaknesses. Skill, speed, size... it's all there.

 

Look at ours even without injuries to Horvat and Pearson.

 

I see us losing a 7 game series. The only way we beat them is if one of our star players takes over the series. Demko. Maybe Petey as he has the ability to take over a game when it matters. But even if Demko and Petey plays at a high level, we will probably lose the series 4-2. 

 

We have three star players in Petey, Hughes, and Demko. We need to surround these guys with good roster players signed at reasonable $$ and have the possibility of adding a star player through drafting and developing. 

 

I point to Tampa as an example. They had Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, and Vasy but they still couldn't win. Then, they added another super star in Point. And Cirelli (not a star but an elite player). Then, they won 2 cups and are going for 3.

 

Luckily for us, Hughes and Demko signed long term contracts at very reasonable cap hits. But Petey... well, first I'll say that Petey will become an elite two-way guy that scores 90+ points (e.g. Barkov) based on his play in the last 40 games or so. Then we are looking at 10+ mil contract for Petey.

 

Cap efficiency is going to be the key to opening our window of contention.

 

Now, about Miller.

 

There is zero doubt that Miller is going to be a great piece that can and will help this team win immediately. 

 

He is easily worth 9+ mil right now and will probably be worth that money for the next 2-3 years. In other words, he will play like a 9+ mil player for the first 2 seasons of his contract putting up 80+ points and playing in all situations and helping us get W's. And as Petey begins his ascension, I think we will be a top 10 team in the NHL.

 

If we somehow win a cup in that 2 year brief window, great! 

 

But what if we don't? And what happens when Petey gets his 10+ mil contract and Miller declines? Maybe to being a 50-60 point player.

 

Don't get me wrong. I think Miller will still be a good contributor in his 30's. He will put up decent amount of points and if being a center is no longer viable as he ages, then we can simply switch him to wing and he will strengthen our LW depth.

 

I don't doubt that Miller will be a good player in his 30's, I also don't doubt that he will decline from his current peak form. Because all players decline, even Gretzky, Crosby, and our own, Sedins. There was a moment where I thought the Sedins might not decline as fast and could put up 70 points into their late 30's as they didn't depend much on their physical attributes but more so on being cerebral. I was wrong. No one escapes the father time.

 

Now, when Miller declines, his 9+ mil contract is a potential deal breaker that closes our window.

 

We contend for the next 2-3 years and then, the window might close.

 

Again, I emphasize cap efficiency being key to opening the window of contention and ultimately, winning the cup.

 

If you have a player paid 1 mil, then you expect him to score maybe 20 points at most. But if he puts up 60 points, well then that's 60/20 * 100% = 300% efficiency.

 

If you paid an offensive player 9+ mil, then you'd expect 90+ points. But if he puts up 60 points, then that's 60/90 * 100% = 67% efficiency. 60 points is not bad but you are below par.

 

If you have one too many of these sub 100% efficiency players, you are going to be hard pressed to win a cup.

 

The team that wins the cup is almost always the one that has the highest overall efficiency in the roster. That's just how it works in the cap world.

 

Tampa had Point who was severely underpaid. They won two cups.

 

Blues had Binnington play like a 10 mil goalie and most of their players, like Pietrangelo were over 100% efficiency. They won a cup.

 

Same story with Washington. Guys like Kuznetsove, Wilson, Orlov, Carlsson, Oshie, all performed above their cap.

 

Penguins' three stars, whose contract seemed big when they signed it, have become much smaller as cap rose. And with that, their cap efficiency grew to the point that they could even fit in a guy like Kessel. They won 2 cups.

 

It's no coincidence that Chicago and LA started sucking once their cap efficiency went down the drain as their stars got paid coupled with decline in play (Toewes and Kopitar).

 

 

[khay]

To add to my post above, the reason why we did well in 2020 bubble playoffs is because despite some cap deficiencies (Loui, Beagle, Roussel), we had some amazing cap efficiencies coming from Hughes, Petey, and Marky.

 

And also players like Bo and Miller played like 7, 8 mil players.

 

Players like Edler and Tanev played at or above their cap as well.

 

[deus.ex.makina]

Garland Miller Podlokzin

Pettersson Horvat Boeser

Pearson xxx Hoglander

Highmore Lammikko Chiasson 

Lockwood

 

OEL Myers

Hughes Schenn

Dermott zzz

Rathbone

 

Demko

Martin

coach Boudreau 

these roster is already good.

 

now add a speedy gifted 3C and a top 4 Def to play with Hughes, using Myers Cap.

 

Hughes zzz 

OEL Dermott

Rathbone Schenn 

get ride of the 2 mistcasts : save 5.1

Poolman 2.5M

Dickinson 2.6M

 

Let them fly : save 1,9M

let Hunt goes. 800k
Let Sutter retires 1.125M

so 7 M to re-sign the following :

sign Miller 8,8 x 5 up 3,6

sign Boeser 6,9 x 5  up 1.1

sign Highmore 1,2 x 2 up 500k

sign Lammikko 1 x 2 up 250k

sign Chiasson 1 x 1 up 250k

Re-signing costs ups: under 6M

 

we still have to sign our 3C and our top4 def, but we should not be that bad cap wise. 

 

[filthycanuck]

Depth Depth Depth. Stars get you to the playoffs, depth wins you the cup, and thats been proven every year. Star players almost cancel each other out, its whos mid- bottom 6 forwards, bottom 4 dmen which decides who goes far

[J-23]

1 hour ago, deus.ex.makina said:

so 7 M to re-sign the following :

sign Miller 8,8 x 5 up 3,6

sign Boeser 6,9 x 5  up 1.1

sign Highmore 1,2 x 2 up 500k

sign Lammikko 1 x 2 up 250k

sign Chiasson 1 x 1 up 250k

Re-signing costs ups: under 6M

 

we still have to sign our 3C and our top4 def, but we should not be that bad cap wise. 

 

What about Bo? He is going to get a raise. Pettersson going to get a big pay check as well after this contract.

 

Someone is getting moved, if it’s not Miller, it’s likely going to be BB.

 

Also not that easy to move out guys like Dickinson and Poolman, likely going to have to give up an asset with one of them.

Edited April 23, 2022 by J-23

[J-23]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

Petey and Hughes not even in their primes. Major structural and succession issues at RD, lack of speed, size and grit, PK'ers, 3C, lack of organizational depth to support the roster and overly reliant on Demko.

 

Their play under Bruce has been admirable, but it doesn't change those realities.

 

Our window is +/- 2-7 years.

Well said. Petey and Hughes have yet to hit their prime. That is a few years away and once that happens, that’s when our window opens and when we truly become contenders. During that time though, we must fix those issues you mentioned.

[shiznak]

The fact that JR outright said, they need to clear cap to compete in a few years indicate the team isn’t going to truly compete for at least 2 years. Too many holes in the lineup.
 

Miller has been a workhorse/fan favourite for us and is playing like a superstar. But that doesn’t mean re-signing him to a mega deal is the right move for the organization moving forward. Plus, there’s no guarantee Miller can sustain his current production next year. So, you move him when his value is at it peak.

Yes, the team did wonders when Boudreau took over, but how many of those games that you can say we deserve to win? I’d wager to bet that more than half of the games since Boudreau took over, we were badly outplayed, only for Demko to bail us out.

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by shiznak

[mikeyman109]

3 hours ago, shiznak said:

The fact that JR outright said, they need to clear cap to compete in a few years indicate the team isn’t going to truly compete for at least 2 years. Too many holes in the lineup.
 

Miller has been a workhorse/fan favourite for us and is playing like a superstar. But that doesn’t mean re-signing him to a mega deal is the right move for the organization moving forward. Plus, there’s no guarantee Miller can sustain his current production next year. So, you move him when his value is at it peak.

Yes, the team did wonders when Boudreau took over, but how many of those games that you can say we deserve to win? I’d wager to bet that more than half of the games since Boudreau took over, we were badly outplayed, only for Demko to bail us out.

 

Last time I checked the goaltender is part of the team. How many years did Luongo bail us out? Thats why you build from the net out. Markstrom did it for a few years as well.

 

Moving Miller is not a complete disaster as some have suggested but its possibly not the answer to all our issues. Whomever we trade JT to will have to have the assets we need to be competitive within 2 years or so. We need a RHD that is ready to compete in that 2 years. Adding draft picks for JT is not smart as we already have the player we want in JT hes just a little older than our core. How much better will we be adding a Juolevi or Virtanen that dont work out for a player that we already know.

The player most likely to be moved is Boeser. As much as I like the kid, i dont like his speed. Pure and simple when he gets the puck he can shoot and accurately but to build a fast skilled team you need to be able to skate in this league and hes the slow man out.

If we can somehow move on from Poolman, Dickenson and Hunt as well as either a trade of Brock or walk away we get cap space to sign a D man to play with Hughes. As I have said before I dont think BB6 beings us much back in a trade after this season

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by mikeyman109

[babych]

I have a hard time seeing this team competing with OEL, Myers and Dickenson taking up almost $16 million in cap space. Not that they aren't good players, but the value just isn't there at that price.

 

Benning screwed this team over with bad contracts, and we're tied to OEL for another, what 5 years? 

 

Le sigh.

[Alflives]

Great years out of Miller, Demko, Bo, Hughes, and Petey.  And we still missed the playoffs!  Big changes are needed, and (unless our owner is involved) are coming.

Oir top players are going to be different.  

Miller out

Garland out

Myers out

 

 

 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, babych said:

I have a hard time seeing this team competing with OEL, Myers and Dickenson taking up almost $16 million in cap space. Not that they aren't good players, but the value just isn't there at that price.

 

Benning screwed this team over with bad contracts, and we're tied to OEL for another, what 5 years? 

 

Le sigh.

Exactly!  We are stuck with OEL.  We cannot stick it to ourselves even more and sign Miller.  

Myers and Dickinson can and will both be moved.  

[nux_win]

I think that we should try to win now and later.  The idea that it has to be one or the other seems rather artificial to me.  We've just seen how big a difference that coaching can make with essentially the same players so the idea that "the window" is only open for a limited amount of time while certain players are certain ages is silly.  There are so many factors at play that it can't be boiled down to a simple mechanical formula.  Sometimes a 35 year old is over the hill and sometimes they can be a vital piece to winning it all, it can't be predicted by age alone.  As long as we are constantly trying to improve we can win at any time, it's not about now or later.

 

Go Canucks Go!

[IBatch]

The way i see it is Allvin doesn't have much of a choice other then some minor surgery.   I don't think we are going to be contenders either way.  But what i do see is a modest path to give our team some playoff reps.    Major surgery comes with too much risk - at least that's how i see it.    A few lopsided trades could push us into a contender.   Not expecting that either.   Rather a team that is good enough to compete with the big boys but not a top team.    That's ok.   My biggest curiosity is how we are in the post season.  It's a big unknown.    LA was a bad/middling regular season team.    There is always hope.  

[Ghostsof1915]

I'm just not sure about the mix. And not just the tweeners the team has. Myers is sort of the team summed up in one player. At times when he keeps it simple. He's very effective.

Other times he's like he's juggling the puck like a hand grenade. He's not the only one that seems to be inconsistent. 

 

The problem is we play in the Western Conference. And outside of Schenn, Myers, Burroughs, Pearson. We don't have a lot of size and or muscle. Chaisson has the size and frame, but doesn't use it like he should. When we play the bigger teams like Vegas, Minny, the Canucks get boxed out. We can't thrive with smaller players and skill. 

Edmonton tried that, and even they had to bring in more muscle, and improve their defence. (But they still can't invest in a good goalie)

 

I'd hope we move some pieces and the team will gel and improve. But personally I'm stumped. I really don't want to completely rebuild. But I'm not sure we're good enough to be up against the Tampas, Floridas, Hurricanes. Let alone teams in our conference. 

[Alflives]

29 minutes ago, nux_win said:

I think that we should try to win now and later.  The idea that it has to be one or the other seems rather artificial to me.  We've just seen how big a difference that coaching can make with essentially the same players so the idea that "the window" is only open for a limited amount of time while certain players are certain ages is silly.  There are so many factors at play that it can't be boiled down to a simple mechanical formula.  Sometimes a 35 year old is over the hill and sometimes they can be a vital piece to winning it all, it can't be predicted by age alone.  As long as we are constantly trying to improve we can win at any time, it's not about now or later.

 

Go Canucks Go!

Will Miller and OEL making 16 mil on our cap in 3 years allow us to be winning?  

[Chris12345]

7 hours ago, khay said:

To add to my post above, the reason why we did well in 2020 bubble playoffs is because despite some cap deficiencies (Loui, Beagle, Roussel), we had some amazing cap efficiencies coming from Hughes, Petey, and Marky.

 

And also players like Bo and Miller played like 7, 8 mil players.

 

Players like Edler and Tanev played at or above their cap as well.

 

We also did really well in the bubble because the St Louis Blues went a bit of a bender.

[Chris12345]

46 minutes ago, nux_win said:

I think that we should try to win now and later.  The idea that it has to be one or the other seems rather artificial to me.  We've just seen how big a difference that coaching can make with essentially the same players so the idea that "the window" is only open for a limited amount of time while certain players are certain ages is silly.  There are so many factors at play that it can't be boiled down to a simple mechanical formula.  Sometimes a 35 year old is over the hill and sometimes they can be a vital piece to winning it all, it can't be predicted by age alone.  As long as we are constantly trying to improve we can win at any time, it's not about now or later.

 

Go Canucks Go!

Exactly I hate the term window.

 

You should always been moving players and pieces to be competitive.