Canuck Forwards After Free Agency

[Jaimito]

Probably need to seperate the centers from the list. They are key components that form the backbone of the lines, and are not interchangeable with regular wingers. 

I think it's a reasonably deep center depth. Not sure if I miss anyone else.  Of course, losing JT will leave a big hole since he plays in so many situations PP, PK, 3 on 3, 4 on 4, 5 on 5, shootout.  

 

Miller

Pettersson

Horvat

Lazar

Dickinson

Joshua 

Edited July 16, 2022 by Jaimito

[stawns]

no secret that I think Miller shouldn't and won't be here by start of the season, but he is currently here and I have zero issue with him as a player. 

 

However, they are heavy on rw and light on lw, so someone is going to have to switch sides if they want to find a spot for Boeser, who is the hardest one to find a spot for if everyone played their true position, imo.  My lineup projections leave Hogz out in the cold, sadly..........I'm not sure what they're going to do with him, as I don't think he has a lot of value in a deal but I do think he's a great fit for the style this team wants to play.  PA did a pretty good job putting together a deep group of forwards who will play a tenacious style

 

Pearson Bo Boeser - I couldn't fit a good spot for Boeser, but Bo and Pearson seem like the best fit as they are most defensively responsible 5v5

 

Kuz Miller Garland - Garland and Miller were solid together and it seems like the logical spot for Kuz.  Solid line at  both ends.

 

Mikheyev Petey Podz - to me, this is the best line in this setup.  That is a tough line to play against and would put on a takeaway clinic

 

DJ Lazar Lockwood/Dickinson/Hogz - I like WL in this spot........hard, physical line who could actually be a shutdown line and allow Bo to take a few less faceoffs in his own end

 

PP

Kuz Bo Petey

OEL Hughes

 

BB Miller Garland 

Rathbone Myers

 

PK

Mik Lazar

OEL Myers

 

DJ Pearson

Poolman Schenn

 

The miller and petey lines are nicely balanced in terms of playing style, imo, but (no surprise) Boeser is the outlier in this lineup........I know people think I don't like Boeser (not true), but I just don't think he's a good fit in this lineup.  Primarily, I don't think his style fits the team and it's tough to find a spot where he fits well.  He doesn't play well with Petey and putting him on Miller's line takes Garland off and I thought CG and JT had something good late last season.  Secondly, with BB in the lineup, they have to flip a rw to the left side, which is probably Miheyev (left shot) and that pushes Hogz out of the lineup and I think that's too bad, because I think he fits the style they want to play and he's motivated to prove himself after last season.  I think Hogz is a solid top 9 forward who plays a hard, intense game and he should be in the lineup. 

 

I think this is the last puzzle to solve in the fwd group.

Edited July 16, 2022 by stawns

[DownUndaCanuck]

My concern is what they do at center. You need good center depth to win cups, that's simple, and you need insurance in case of injuries. We have Miller, Petey and Bo as our top guys but it depends how Bruce wants to play them. No doubt as the season goes on they'll switch up from rolling 3 lines with each of those guys on their own line, to Petey and Miller likely on the same line loaded up. That's how we ended last season.

 

If that's the case, who is our shutdown 3C who can kill penalties and score 30-40 points (the way most 3Cs do)? Right now it's Lazar. Who's our 4C? Joshua. That makes me a bit nervous - downgrade compared to Lammikko there.

 

It just depends, if we have Miller on the top line, Petey as 2C and Bo as 3C we've arguably got the best center depth in the league with a 100pt center, 80+ pt 2C and 50-60pt 3C, so it depends how Bruce uses them as the season goes on.

 

Then there's Dickinson who, at the moment, starts on the bottom 6 wing if at all.

 

I think this may also be why we've gone out and snagged two top wingers, because management may have discussed this with Boudreau and decided to roll 3 scoring lines. Even then, we're going to have to move one of them, but adding Kuzmenko and Mikheyev to an already strong winger group really gives us some of the best forward depth in the league.

 

The glaring hole at RD still exists and for the most part we're still top and bottom heavy at center without a true 40 point shutdown 3C but we can work with that if we have 6 centers on the roster (Petey, Miller, Bo, Lazar, Joshua and Dickinson).

[stawns]

2 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

My concern is what they do at center. You need good center depth to win cups, that's simple, and you need insurance in case of injuries. We have Miller, Petey and Bo as our top guys but it depends how Bruce wants to play them. No doubt as the season goes on they'll switch up from rolling 3 lines with each of those guys on their own line, to Petey and Miller likely on the same line loaded up. That's how we ended last season.

 

If that's the case, who is our shutdown 3C who can kill penalties and score 30-40 points (the way most 3Cs do)? Right now it's Lazar. Who's our 4C? Joshua. That makes me a bit nervous - downgrade compared to Lammikko there.

 

It just depends, if we have Miller on the top line, Petey as 2C and Bo as 3C we've arguably got the best center depth in the league with a 100pt center, 80+ pt 2C and 50-60pt 3C, so it depends how Bruce uses them as the season goes on.

 

Then there's Dickinson who, at the moment, starts on the bottom 6 wing if at all.

 

I think this may also be why we've gone out and snagged two top wingers, because management may have discussed this with Boudreau and decided to roll 3 scoring lines. Even then, we're going to have to move one of them, but adding Kuzmenko and Mikheyev to an already strong winger group really gives us some of the best forward depth in the league.

 

The glaring hole at RD still exists and for the most part we're still top and bottom heavy at center without a true 40 point shutdown 3C but we can work with that if we have 6 centers on the roster (Petey, Miller, Bo, Lazar, Joshua and Dickinson).

I think Lazar is going to surprise a lot of people.

[IBatch]

On 7/14/2022 at 7:18 PM, AlwaysACanuckFan said:

1. Miller
2. Pettersson
3. Horvat
4. Boeser
5. Garland
6. Chiasson 
7. Lammikko
8. Podkolzin
9. Pearson
10. Hoglander
11. Highmore
12. Dickinson
13. Lockwood
14. Motte 
15. Karlsson
16. Dowling

Compared to last season's roster, if the current roster holds up, on paper looks better. Looking forward to seeing how it plays out. Hoping for going the right direction. 

Maki/Kuzmo > then Lammy Chia ...that's the main upgrade right there. 

[JM_]

3 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Maki/Kuzmo > then Lammy Chia ...that's the main upgrade right there. 

NHL vs AHL/fringe right there 

[IBatch]

10 hours ago, stawns said:

I think Lazar is going to surprise a lot of people.

Lazar early in OTT seemed like he was going to have a decent - good NHL career ... it's cool that he's still around, and does have a chance here to do just that.   Hope he makes the best of it given year's signed (at a very low risk deal)...His good attitude is infectious. 

[stawns]

3 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Lazar early in OTT seemed like he was going to have a decent - good NHL career ... it's cool that he's still around, and does have a chance here to do just that.   Hope he makes the best of it given year's signed (at a very low risk deal)...His good attitude is infectious. 

Hrs a smart guy and very skilled and he's figured out that being an effective player doesn't necessarily show up on the stat sheet

[RU SERIOUS]

On 7/15/2022 at 12:01 AM, Jaimito said:

 

some comments of the new forwards from Harman Dayal. 

I'm glad you brought up the D&D show because on yesterdays (last show of the season), Thomas Drance brought-up a very good point, in that the two/three main acquisitions the Canucks made to their mid-bottom six sure looks a lot like the yearly "tinkering’s" that 'ol Uncle Jim used to make each and every year by slotting in/out a couple/three new players then hyping them up to keep us interested but which always brought about the same end results each and every year (I.E. Not making the playoffs).   

 

So the question remains: Will the changes made by JR this year - to those mid level players - result in any different results given we still have the same anemic defensive corps and the same top players??????

 

 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2022 by RU SERIOUS

[mikeyman109]

its more and more looking like we are following the Coiler and Laff model. All your strengths kicked in up front with the forwards and nothing left for the D. the only thing we have going for us better than those two teams is Demko. Otherwise we are an exact duplicate of those failing teams. Cap aside the D we have is better than Torontos. The oilers are in trouble on the back end even with their new goalie.

[250Integra]

Podkolzin-Miller-Kuzmenko

Hoglander-Pettersson-Boeser

Mikheyev-Horvat-Garland

Pearson-Lazar-Joshua

Dickinson

OEL-Myers

Hughes-Schenn

Dermott-Poolman

Rathbone

Still waiting for the shoe to drop.. gotta beef up our defense somehow. Think this group can make the playoffs but losing Miller and/or Horvat for nothing come next TDL would be a stupid move knowing that it’s highly unlikely we can keep both come the following season. I don’t see us being SCF contenders either but anything can happen?

 

We would still have a good team that can make the playoffs and is better set for the future if we traded Miller. 

[Viper007]

On 7/15/2022 at 9:59 AM, Stierlitz said:

Canucks finally get rid of Sutter, he is UFA now.

I wouldn't mind to see if he's healthy with a PTO.  And then sign him for $1 Mill again if he is.  We could use another good Right handed faceoff guy.

[awalk]

I was a big Lammikko fan so this is nice.

 

https://canucksarmy.com/2022/07/20/dakota-joshua-brings-everything-canucks-looking-fourth-liner/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[teepain]

Podkolzin-Miller-garland

Pearson-Pettersson-Boeser

Mikheyev-Horvat-Kuzmenko

hoglander-lazar-Dickinson

Joshua

[Bruce Boudreau]

On 7/14/2022 at 2:40 PM, JamesB said:

The Canucks did more than expected on the first day of free agency. The signing of Kuzmenko was already a done deal and it was made official when free agency opened. And signing Larzar was no surprise and had been widely suggested as a possibility. But signing Mikheyev was a big surprise and the Canucks also brought in Dakota Joshua (and Allvin has said he expects him to be on the NHL team).

 

And no one was traded away. Despite all the talk about a possible Miller trade and rumors and speculation about various other forwards who might be traded (Pearson, Garland, Dickinson, Hoglander) no trades occurred and all those guys are still Canucks.

 

That means that the Canucks have more "NHL forwards" than can fit on the 23-man roster, giving rise to the "internal competition" that Allvin said he likes (as does pretty much every GM).

 

So I thought this would be a good time to step back and see where the Canucks are with the forwards and how this year's group compares with last year. 

 

First, here is the list of "NHL forwards" on the team. I have ordered them by my sense of relative ability -- but don't pay too much attention to the ordering as it is just a rough approximation. Basically I just want to get the names down in some kind of meaningful order.  

 

1. Miller
2. Pettersson
3. Horvat
4. Boeser
5. Garland
6. Mikheyev
7. Kuzmenko
8. Podkolzin
9. Pearson
10. Hoglander
11. Lazar
12. Dickinson
13. Lockwood
14. Joshua
15. Karlsson
16. Dowling

 

!6 names is too many. And the Canucks have other guys who will make a push in training camp: Aman, Bains, Klimovich, and Di Guiseppe, although all those guys will almost certainly start in Abby, as will Dries.

 

The Canucks need 12 guys to put on the ice and will carry either one extra forward (13th man) or two (adding a 14th man) in the 23-man roster.

It seems pretty obvious that Dowling will go to Abby and I am guessing that Karlsson also starts in Abby. That leaves 14 guys who I expect to be on the 23-man roster.

 

So how do these forwards compare with last year's team.

 

A. Additions versus subtractions.

 

The additions are much better than the subtractions. No disrespect intended to Motte, Lammikko, Highmore, Chiasson, and Petan (subtractions), but the additions are, as a group, much better players. Mikheyev is at a different level than the group leaving. And, while Kuzmenko has not yet played in the NHL, chances are that he is also a much higher level player. Lazar replaces Lammikko at 4C and on PK and, while I like Lammer, I think Lazer is a significantly more valuable player in those slots. (And that is obviously the decision the Canucks made). And Joshua brings some potential toughness that the departing guys did not have.

 

The other point about the additions is that they add what JR said the team wanted -- speed, "sandpaper", energy, PK ability, secondary scoring, and being "tough to play against".

 

B. Age-related effects.

 

Age-related changes matter a lot. Roughly speaking, you expect guys under 25 to improve year-to-year, you expect guys in the 25-30 range to stay about the same, and you expect guys over 30 to show some age-related decline. There is a lot of individual variation, but those ranges provides a pretty good general indication. 

 

None of the forwards likely to be on the 23-man roster are over 30. In fact, none are over 29 as the oldest guys are Miller and Pearson, who are both 29.

The Canucks have three guys in the likely 23 man roster under 25: Podkolzin, Hoglander, and Pettersson, and it is reasonable to expect a significant step forward from all three of those guys, especially Podkolzin. Most of the forwards are in their "early prime" -- which is a good place to be. 

 

So age-related effects also suggest improvement.

 

C. Regression to the mean.

 

In any given year some guys have a good year -- good luck, good fit, good linemates, staying healthy. And some guys have unusually bad years. Usually a guy who has a "career year" tends to come back down to earth the following year, but guys who have bad luck usually bounce back -- returning to the "mean" or expected performance for that player. It is possible to get a sense of how this will go by looking at underlying numbers like PDO and expected goals (xGF and xGA) and by thinking about deployment, quality of line-mates and quality of competition. 

 

I have taken a look at those things and there are some obvious conclusions.

 

a. Miller had a career year. He is unlikely to be as good next year. But he will still be good. I think it would be reasonable to project him as about a point per game player, as he was in the two years before last year.  

 

b. On the other hand, Boeser had a disappointing year. Part of it was personal issues (the illness of his father) and part of it was bad luck. He should bounce back. Dickinson should also bounce back. This is a significant plus. And I have already suggested that Petey should have a good year, partly because of age-related improvement and partly due to "bounce-back" from a bad first half of the season. 

 

Overall, I think that regression to the mean should have a small positive net effect as bounceback for Boeser, Petey, and Dickie should more than offset regression to the mean for Miller. 

 

D. What about coaching? The forwards improved a lot when Boudreau took over. Part of it was fit and part was the Green had "lost the room" and the team just needed a change. Having Boudreau all year should help the forwards. 

 

Bottom line:

 

I expect a departure or two but I would not be surprised if we don't see much change over the summer. A possible Miller trade is the big question mark but that is looking less and less likely as time passes. 

 

This forward group will be good. If Miller stays it could be the best forward group in the Pacific Division. Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl (and Kane, which might be positive or negative), but the Canucks have better depth. And losing Gaudreau obviously hurts Calgary a lot. . 

 

Will Garland bounce back?

 

With Tkachuk out of Cowtown Calgary takes a bit of a hit but getting Huberdeau back was pretty big along with Weegar.

[Hairy Kneel]

On 7/22/2022 at 2:24 AM, teepain said:

Podkolzin-Miller-garland

Pearson-Pettersson-Boeser

Mikheyev-Horvat-Kuzmenko

hoglander-lazar-Dickinson

Joshua

Dickinson doesn't have the toughness of Joshua. I'd waive Dickinson. He can be a captain in Abby.

[Gurn]

59 minutes ago, Chip Kelly said:

Will Garland bounce back?

Bounce back from what?

Guy had his best statistical season last year.

Career	-	241	66	82	148	17	94	12	29	0	0	11	0	614	10.7	43.3
ARI	47	13	5	18	1	12	4	6	0	0	2	0	118	11.02	55.56
2019-2020	ARI	68	22	17	39	1	20	4	10	0	0	5	0	158	13.9	36.36
2020-2021	ARI	49	12	27	39	-3	26	3	10	0	0	1	0	135	8.9	33.33
2021-2022	VAN	77	19	33	52	18	36	1	3	0	0	3	0	203	9.4	50

[StanleyCupOneDay]

On 7/15/2022 at 9:59 AM, Stierlitz said:

Canucks finally get rid of Sutter, he is UFA now.

Sutter was way better then most fans here give him credit for. If it wasn’t for that maskless idiot Gaudette and his wife infecting him and derailing his health (and potentially his entire career) with long COVID he’d still be on this team. He was the perfect 3C for us.

[Hairy Kneel]

On 7/17/2022 at 11:31 AM, 250Integra said:

Podkolzin-Miller-Kuzmenko

Hoglander-Pettersson-Boeser

Mikheyev-Horvat-Garland

Pearson-Lazar-Joshua

Dickinson

OEL-Myers

Hughes-Schenn

Dermott-Poolman

Rathbone

Still waiting for the shoe to drop.. gotta beef up our defense somehow. Think this group can make the playoffs but losing Miller and/or Horvat for nothing come next TDL would be a stupid move knowing that it’s highly unlikely we can keep both come the following season. I don’t see us being SCF contenders either but anything can happen?

 

We would still have a good team that can make the playoffs and is better set for the future if we traded Miller. 

Good lists

I would like to see Joshua slotted up with EP for a few shifts here and there against tougher teams. Not full-time but just as a protection flare.

[EddieVedder]

On 7/27/2022 at 9:49 AM, StanleyCupOneDay said:

Sutter was way better then most fans here give him credit for. If it wasn’t for that maskless idiot Gaudette and his wife infecting him and derailing his health (and potentially his entire career) with long COVID he’d still be on this team. He was the perfect 3C for us.

True.  Gauds and his bimbo wife should just go sign in the khl