(discussion) With stats/facts to back it up, explain where you think our d group ranks.

[hammertime]

35 minutes ago, Viper007 said:

He's not big enough to screen the goalie, IMO.  Net front presence has to block the eyes of the goalie.  Garland will make it too easy for the goaltender to look around.  He hasn't really shown me to be adept at deflecting pucks either.  He might be able to do it, I can't say, but I would prefer a bigger body.  I think Pearson is possibly going to lose his powerplay time with Kuzmenko joining the team.  Personally I would prefer Miller or Bo in front as the net presence with Boeser and Petey shooting the one timers.  But I can't really complain about the PP.  They were in the Top 10.  

 

Anyways, I think the thread is going off track with Boeser talk, this is suppose to be about the Defense.  I will stop now.  Sorry JM_.

I wonder if Myers used a shorter stick on the PP if he could stand infront of the net like Buff did to us on the PP.  

[spook007]

5 hours ago, JM_ said:

 

 

I can't find much to go on re: Rathbones defensive stats. Impressive offensively tho: https://www.quanthockey.com/game-logs/en/game-log.php?player=51047&season=all&st=r

 

 

Rathbone was always good going forward, but at his stint at the beginning of last season, his pairing couldn't keep the puck out of their own net, hence he got demoted again. 
Think Hammer is right in saying we need a reliable 3rd pairing the can defend and pk. 
Don't like to rely too much on Hughes for PK'ing...

But stat, of which I have none to back it up. 

[iceman64]

58 minutes ago, hammertime said:

I wonder if Myers used a shorter stick on the PP if he could stand infront of the net like Buff did to us on the PP.  

Maybe but don't remind me..  I remember that like it was yesterday, we needed a certain big Russian goes by the nick of Train..

 However that's why Alberts was signed in response. I think he was one of the biggest available but still not big enough.. 

 Buffs wingspan was pretty impressive like Myers, but from being tall and a long stick can have a good chance of tipping from outside in instead of being out closer. It was what we were taught growing up anyway, then take the body and with a longer stick and reach helps because your still not out of balance and end up looking, well you know and what a McD, OV, will take advantage of is something they dream about. 

 So it works both ways.. reminds me of the age old stick length opinions actually that have been around for years but in actually it's just what type of style your suited to or want. 

 A smaller stick is easier to control and less of a target for it to be lifted so a trade off.. 

 Speaking of Myers, keeping him for the size aspect of our team that will be picked and developed at the same time. (For a change) 

 Speaking of which, Jackson Van De Leest, previously Capt of the red deer rebels or hitmen (can't remember which one) who could come in and help I think, when?  I really don't know but he's huge, tough mo-fo and smart so the scouting reports say anyway. Might end up being a steal or a Guddy, no idea...

Has what we're looking for, good skater, skills, brains with edge!! Yes please!!

 

[JM_]

2 hours ago, Attila Umbrus said:

I think it was more due to injuries with Rathbone, he had a couple small ones last year and would come back, start ripping it up, then go down again. I could see management being gun shy on bringing him up when he was getting hurt quite frequently.

 

I think Rathbone has all the tools to succeed  offensively in the NHL. His defence is passable, not great, but that’s ok. My major red flag is his injuries and how he takes contact when getting hit. He puts himself in some dangerous positions from time to time. He needs to clean that part up and be more aware…when he got smeared on the boards last season I think it taught him a valuable lesson. After that hit when he come back a few games later he was definitely more aware. If he learns that end of things he will have a long career in the NHL. Every time he makes mistakes he has shown strong willingness to learn and move on from them. 

I'm always worried with that college to AHL jump, keep your head up kids. 

[JM_]

Thanks folks, this went better than expected today. 

 

I think its pretty clear that we shouldn't expect more than average, and yeah its expensive. OTOH I think people presented a lot of good evidence to think that the group shouldn't regress either. So average-ish it is, until we can swap Myers out and/or move other salary for one more RHD.

 

Big wild card imo is the effect of the new look F group, and if that can help to take some pressure of the d group (and Demko). 

 

[TGT68]

I think the question, if we go with the defence we have, is what lefty plays the right side this year.  

 

 

Can we do

 

Quinn Dermot

Oel   Myers

Rathbone schenn

Burroughs pool man

 

Or 

 

OEL Hughes

Dermott myers

Rathbone schenn

Burroughs poolman

 

If one or both those work I see a solid top 4 and a very good top 6 with a very good top 8.  

 

And I don't think the pipeline is that bare anymore.  

 

Woo

Juulsen

Brisebois

Wolanin

Petterssen

 

All those have top 8 potential to me.  Really like how EP32 looked in development camp.  He looked fast and big.  Still growing and 2 or 3 years away but one like that every year amd the pipeline gets deep in a hurry   

 

[Dazzle]

5 hours ago, Master Mind said:

This is simply false. It's also odd how you manage to bring Gillis into this when unwarranted. Our pipeline is very thin, that is a legitimate observation.

 

Teams like Carolina are able to have players make the team, while still maintaining a deep prospect pool. If a contending team can do this, we should be striving to do the same if not better.

Drafting/development. It was missing under the Gillis regime and the lack of players from that time period have a very real impact today. To ignore this is silly as hell.

[Master Mind]

3 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

Drafting/development. It was missing under the Gillis regime and the lack of players from that time period have a very real impact today. To ignore this is silly as hell.

We' haven't had good drafting/development on defense for almost our entire franchise's existence.

 

To pick on Gillis, when Benning is the most recent predecessor and therefore the GM that contributed the most to our currently empty pipeline, is very questionable.

 

As is saying Benning successfully drafted several good defensemen. In 8 years he drafted one for sure in Hughes with a top seven pick. Maybe Rathbone becomes the second, but that's hardly several.

[iceman64]

7 minutes ago, TGT68 said:

I think the question, if we go with the defence we have, is what lefty plays the right side this year.  

 

 

Can we do

 

Quinn Dermot

Oel   Myers

Rathbone schenn

Burroughs pool man

 

Or 

 

OEL Hughes

Dermott myers

Rathbone schenn

Burroughs poolman

 

If one or both those work I see a solid top 4 and a very good top 6 with a very good top 8.  

 

And I don't think the pipeline is that bare anymore.  

 

Woo

Juulsen

Brisebois

Wolanin

Petterssen

 

All those have top 8 potential to me.  Really like how EP32 looked in development camp.  He looked fast and big.  Still growing and 2 or 3 years away but one like that every year amd the pipeline gets deep in a hurry   

 

That would be weird... Hard to fathom something the organization has never been able to so before, for whatever reason. 

 No need to discuss reasons, that ship sailed, if it's replaced with this, yeah who cares. 

 A fully working farm producing ELC'S is what we need way more of. 

 Sadly since 2012 we were too locked up for it but now clean slate and a lot of good assets and the word to follow through and up to now has looked like it but like most here, case of believing it by seeing it not words...

 Something JR said in a recent interview was he could only work with what's available and that's the thing worth noting and remembering, that's a thing, and if we have to wait for that, so be it, it's better waiting for a better result. 

 So if we kick to the curb the thought that ever going back to buy a team and end up selling depth to do and get nowhere, we're a lot better off. 

 Can't say that any of the 3 one trick ponies ever got us a cup either. 

 I'm just stoked that every last player of the 2012 roster all the way to Luongo is gone. 

 Yeah most were locked in but finally we're here... And the odd thing is, we lucked out for a change, not the typical curse, we have management that wants to build, shocking lol 

[Alflives]

26 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

Drafting/development. It was missing under the Gillis regime and the lack of players from that time period have a very real impact today. To ignore this is silly as hell.

Gillis was building a Cup level team around an existing key core.  And he did it brilliantly.  Our most successful era ever, shout question.  Benning tried to retool/rebuild/reset or whatever it is called that he failed so miserably at.  The new regime needs to fix the Benning disaster, and then build (like Gillis did so brilliantly) around an existing key core.  The new group is very smart and listens to those they hired who are the experts in their area, so I expect they will do a good job.  Time will tell if they can reach the level of brilliance as Gillis.  

[ButterBean]

I think the addition of Mikheyev and Lazar will at least help our defense a little bit. From what I hear they are both good PK’ers and the speed Mikheyev brings will help our backchecking. Simply too many odd man rushes against last year and if our forwards can do better defensively thats a big plus.

 

There’s an argument to be made for and against Rathbone. If he’s being deployed right with sheltered minutes and a strong defensive guy on the right side I see no problem. Question is if his puck moving and offensive abilities outweigh his potential subpar defensive play. Dermott may have top 4 potential both him and Burroughs are guys you don’t notice out there for good reasons and rarely get caught making obvious mistakes. Which of these options would you take if you had to choose? 

Option A:

Hughes - OEL 

Dermott - Myers

Rathbone - Schenn/Burroughs

Poolman/Juulsen

 

Option B:

Hughes - Schenn

OEL - Myers

Dermott - Burroughs

Rathbone/Juulsen/Poolman

 

[J-23]

Don’t need stats or facts, our d core is average. Could be better, could be worse. Not as bad as some people make it out to be, slightly overpaid imo.
 

We have a lot of middle 6 wingers right now. Make a trade for a RHD. The most important thing is finding a partner for Hughes from a trade or signing. Sign Subban for a fair price as well for a year or two. Good depth.

 

OEL - Myers

Hughes - Trade

Dermott/Schenn/Rathbone - Subban

 

This d core on paper looks above average imo.

 

[Timråfan]

2 hours ago, Dazzle said:

Drafting/development. It was missing under the Gillis regime and the lack of players from that time period have a very real impact today. To ignore this is silly as hell.

Can you give up simple minded analyse you got?

You got Benning that managed to draft a few low numbers but after those players almost nothing.

You talk about defence. We only got one jet and that is Hughes. Both Rathbone and Woo has to earn their spot on the roster and talk about them afterwards if so. Not before when we know nothing about their ability on the highest level. 

After the trading of a lot of dratfs Benning  handcuffed the team with really bad contracts so the new regime has a problem going forward. 

No players on ELC on their way in and no cap to take on a good RHD.

All on Benning

 

The critique against Benning isn't ten years old as the garbage you're spouting about Gillis. 

[Rindiculous]

9 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

For some “at a glance” ratings on our defencemen, based purely on stats, here are the player cards for Canucks players, from The Athletic:

 

https://theathletic.com/3062792/2022/04/18/nhl-player-cards-vancouver-canucks/

 

It’s probably behind a paywall, so I’ll try to quickly summarize:

 

Quinn Hughes: top pairing D, elite assists and points, value equal to contract 

 

OEL: fringe top pairing/high end middle pairing D, high middle pair stats pretty much across the board, top pair defensive stats, annual value ~$3M less than contract (aka overpaid by $3M/yr)

 

Myers: middle pairing D, middle to bottom pair team effects, higher end bottom pairing production, annual value ~$4M less than contract 

 

Poolman: bottom pairing to fridge middle pairing D, top pairing defensive effects, fringe NHL level to bottom pairing on everything else, annual value ~$1M less than contract

 

Dermott: middle pairing D, elite defensive impact (statistically anyway), high end middle pairing offensive impact, bottom pairing production, annual value ~$1M more than contract 

 

Schenn: high end middle pairing D, top pairing defensive impact, middle pairing effects pretty much everywhere else, annual value ~2.5M more than contract

 

All together, it’s not that bad. Probably puts us somewhere near the middle of the pack, as far as our overall defence (at least statistically). Main issue is being ~$5M overpaid as a group. Some better decisions on player acquisitions and contracts would have allowed us to swap in another top pairing level D, in place of a bottom pairing guy, which would make the overall group far more impressive.

I don’t know about the overpay, underpay that all the sportswriters put out there cause especially on the right side almost all defensemen would be considered way overpaid by those standards.  Like what fringe top pairing D is being paid 4 mill…I don’t think there’s one out there

[DSVII]

23 minutes ago, Rindiculous said:

I don’t know about the overpay, underpay that all the sportswriters put out there cause especially on the right side almost all defensemen would be considered way overpaid by those standards.  Like what fringe top pairing D is being paid 4 mill…I don’t think there’s one out there

There's some, granted you have to look at some ELCs

 

2021 cap hits

Mackenzie Weegar ($3.25 mil) - RHD

Mortiz Seider ($863k) - RHD

Noah Dobson ($894k) - RHD

Devon Toews ($4.1 mil)

Brian Dumolin ($4.1 mil) 

Vince Dunn ($4 mil)

 

It's rare as RHD and top pairing defensemen are valued. But when you can hit on one it's great. 

 

 

[Rindiculous]

1 hour ago, DSVII said:

There's some, granted you have to look at some ELCs

 

2021 cap hits

Mackenzie Weegar ($3.25 mil) - RHD

Mortiz Seider ($863k) - RHD

Noah Dobson ($894k) - RHD

Devon Toews ($4.1 mil)

Brian Dumolin ($4.1 mil) 

Vince Dunn ($4 mil)

 

It's rare as RHD and top pairing defensemen are valued. But when you can hit on one it's great. 

 

 

ELCs absolutely don’t count lol.  But yah those are the only ones you can find that are not overpaid.  Weegar and Toews are gonna make bank next contract.  So this overpaid narrative is highly skewed making almost every defenseman seem overpaid rather than giving 50% overpaid and 50% underpaid.  So that’s why I don’t like when writers are always like this.  The salary cap isn’t 40 mill anymore.

[mll]

The private tracking company CSA has Demko saving Vancouver over 21 goals above expected - the 5th best mark in the league.  That's 4x times more than the Natural Stat Trick model.  CSA looks at the full context of the play that leads to a shot - screens, passing plays, rush vs cycle, etc.

 

The Natural Stat Trick model has Demko saving the team just over 5 goals at all strength (168 goals against vs an expected 173.26).  Public models like Natural Stat Trick can't factor in pre-shot movements, screens or goalie positioning which can considerably impact shot quality.

 

A shot without a screen is easier to save then one with multiple screens.  A shot off a cross-seam pass is considerably more dangerous than one where the goalie doesn't have to quickly move laterally.  Some teams struggle at defending against the rush with the Ds too slow to track back.  Natural Stat Trick only has shot location.  It's also a subjective measure because tracked manually by the in-arena officials and it's not necessarily consistent across arenas.

 

At the league level the numbers look pretty reasonable but as you go down to the team level numbers can get pretty out of whack (would suspect that there's similar discrepancies at the player level).

 

Natural Stat Trick had an expected goal for of 5'320.  There were 5'477 goal scored - a difference of less than 3%.  

 

For some teams the numbers are within 10 goals but a team like St Louis is 36 goals off (over 20%).  St Louis is all about creating rebounds and cross-seam plays - those are considerably more dangerous scoring chances.  Their expected goals is likely undervalued.

 

Trotz gives the example of a goalie who has the post completely sealed but a player takes a couple of shots right into his pads - they will be recorded as high danger chances given the location when really there is nothing threatening about those shots.

 

Per Kevin Woodley who uses CSA, Demko operates in one of the harshest environments for a starting goalie - from April:

 

[iceman64]

9 hours ago, Dazzle said:

Drafting/development. It was missing under the Gillis regime and the lack of players from that time period have a very real impact today. To ignore this is silly as hell.

Silly isn't the word I'd use but yes that's been the case for a VERY long time... I'd use the word ignorant or blind, both kind of the same but typical... Yeah we were locked in and locked up for quite a few years, rebuilding after that was impossible with so many NTC's with term but clueless people can't get their heads around that.

 Why? Tell me and we'll both know... Thought it was obvious.

[Dazzle]

8 hours ago, Timråfan said:

Can you give up simple minded analyse you got?

You got Benning that managed to draft a few low numbers but after those players almost nothing.

You talk about defence. We only got one jet and that is Hughes. Both Rathbone and Woo has to earn their spot on the roster and talk about them afterwards if so. Not before when we know nothing about their ability on the highest level. 

After the trading of a lot of dratfs Benning  handcuffed the team with really bad contracts so the new regime has a problem going forward. 

No players on ELC on their way in and no cap to take on a good RHD.

All on Benning

 

The critique against Benning isn't ten years old as the garbage you're spouting about Gillis. 

Why is this apparently on Benning, meanwhile Gillis gets a free pass for:

 

1) not drafting an NHL goaltender with any pick

2) not drafting an NHL defenseman with any pick

3) not being to replace Edler, who was drafted well before Gillis did

4) no succession plan after the Sedins

5) being only able to draft with two of his first round picks, and not even all of them that he had. Gaunce and Jensen were total flubs. The missing depth from the 2nd round to 7th round picks. Yikes.

 

My point is that you're missing these players from this period that would've helped for the next GM.

[IBatch]

11 hours ago, Master Mind said:

We' haven't had good drafting/development on defense for almost our entire franchise's existence.

 

To pick on Gillis, when Benning is the most recent predecessor and therefore the GM that contributed the most to our currently empty pipeline, is very questionable.

 

As is saying Benning successfully drafted several good defensemen. In 8 years he drafted one for sure in Hughes with a top seven pick. Maybe Rathbone becomes the second, but that's hardly several.

Agreed.  Suppose we could add Stecher, who was better then Hutton (MG era "prize D" lol), but yes not exactly much to get excited about.   Hughes that's it.  Crazy how long this team relied on Edler and Tanev ... 

Edited July 18, 2022 by IBatch