What if we bought out OEL? (Updated June 16 2023)

[aGENT]

8 hours ago, NHL97OneTimer said:

Miller's contract may be more complicated than OELs based on timing.  If we do a rebuild, OEL's contract would expire before we're actually back in the hunt again.....and drafted D-men will take more than 4 years to come to fruition anyway.  Myers is in the same boat for me......let his contract run its course unless we can get a pick in return.

 

Trading Miller before the next season is actually the priority in my eyes.  Trading Boeser, re-signing Bo and Kuz are the next priorities.

 

May?

 

[5nothincanucksohno]

17 hours ago, stawns said:

They can replace what Miller does, how are they going to replace what horvat does?  It's been a few years, now, of being a solid two way C, of being a very good face off guy........in the last couple of years he's been an elite faceoff C and last year he scores 30 and this year, he's going to pass that, easily 

 

So you have a player drafted and developed by the team who grew from young two way C, to a two way C who can be your b st face off guy, to a good two way C who is an elite faceoff guy, to a great two way C who is an elite faceoff guy and is now a 30 goal player to a 1C who is a top 3 faceoff guy in the league and will also be your top goal scorer.

 

If they let him go, how do they replace that?  There are few things more important than possession and you get possession from faceoffs.  Losing Bo would be catastrophic 

Your views are too absolute, you don't know it would be catastrophic. No one knows what the result would be or what options will be available to Mgmt with more flexibility. We also don't know what the result will be in terms of addition by subtraction. 

 

I do not know what the impact will be either but this team would be hard pressed to be worse than it already is. The Canucks are a young team and Horvat is moving into a higher age bracket...rather than continue to see the same lack of accountability year in and year out, I would rather see Mgmt reset with the younger players in place and surround them with young ELC players at forward (mix in the odd proven winner) and experienced players on the blue line. 

 

 

[stawns]

1 hour ago, 5nothincanucksohno said:

Your views are too absolute, you don't know it would be catastrophic. No one knows what the result would be or what options will be available to Mgmt with more flexibility. We also don't know what the result will be in terms of addition by subtraction. 

 

I do not know what the impact will be either but this team would be hard pressed to be worse than it already is. The Canucks are a young team and Horvat is moving into a higher age bracket...rather than continue to see the same lack of accountability year in and year out, I would rather see Mgmt reset with the younger players in place and surround them with young ELC players at forward (mix in the odd proven winner) and experienced players on the blue line. 

 

 

I know possession is the biggest factor in winning hockey games and I know possession, mainly, comes from winning faceoffs.  I also know there are few, if any C in the league better than Horvat.  Finally, I know the Canucks have no one else in their org that can do that the way Horvat does.

[Bobby James]

No definitely not worth it right now. Way bigger problems then OEL. He plays a tons of minutes and paired with a simpler more defensively minded Dman I think he would play even better. 

 

Maybe when he has 1 or 2 years left if the fall off hits him hard then it might be worth it. 

 

Also wow you gave Kuzmenko 7 million dollars in your hypothetical?? That seems like an enormous overpayment. He is producing really well, but no chance would I ever want him (as he is now) for 7 million dollars. Maybe 4 million with term if he continues playing like this all season. If he is looking for a 6 million+ for 6-7 years then it might be better for us to move him around the deadline.

[Ted Lasso]

I like what OEL brings as a top 4D, and see him as overpaid by ~ $2M, so not worth the buyout once you replace him IMHO. Wait to see how he responds to the next coach/system also.  A run and gun style doesn’t show well for dmen or goalies

[NHL97OneTimer]

11 hours ago, aGENT said:

 

May?

 

Ha ha fair enough.  I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he can keep this up for another 10 years while cleaning up his blind pass giveaways.

[alt kilgore]

OEL is a problem. As far as a glutton of the cap. But one of the last problems on the ice. 
BB should manage the D, as they are now, to a first pairing, and two more interchangeable lines. No set second and third.  OEL, like Elder, plays up to his full potential, high value minutes, when his minutes are managed.

 

[Guest]

15 hours ago, kilgore said:

OEL is a problem. As far as a glutton of the cap. But one of the last problems on the ice. 
BB should manage the D, as they are now, to a first pairing, and two more interchangeable lines. No set second and third.  OEL, like Elder, plays up to his full potential, high value minutes, when his minutes are managed.

 

I've really liked OEL last year and thought that he was the most underrated player on our team. It is fair to question his play this year though. 

 

Either way, buyout doesn't make any sense financially or from the on-ice product point of view. 

[cuporbust]

Lol. Absolutely nobody saw these posts coming in 2020 ( insert sarcasm). They only talked about it on sports radio as a relatively certainty the ENTIRE time these idiots chased him.  No big deal. Just another epic F up to add to the list. He's not even better than Alexander Edler at this point in his career.  I'd take Chris Tanev 100 times out of 100 over this has been . 

 

Sure hit a home run on ignoring and pissng off the other UFA'S that year ( and locker room) to land him didn't we. 

 

Who's next? Should we not even answer Bo Horvat's calls this summer to land Jonathan Toews?  Why not keep up with tradition?

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by cuporbust

[CanucksJay]

On 12/8/2022 at 11:28 AM, canuck73_3 said:

So drop a top 4 Dman, to look for a top 4 Dman which would result in no money saved? OEL is not as bad as all the whining here makes him out to be. Like not even close. Again OEL is NOT the problem.

I agree with you but I have seen more nights this year like wtf are you doing OEL? 

I think both Myers and OEL need to play less for them to be more effective. Whenever their ice time is too high, they are prone to mindfarts and blunders that they normally don't make. 

Which is also why I wonder how we would have fared had we had dermott and poolman in the lineup to take some of that ice time.. 

 

 

 

[canuck73_3]

2 hours ago, CanucksJay said:

I agree with you but I have seen more nights this year like wtf are you doing OEL? 

I think both Myers and OEL need to play less for them to be more effective. Whenever their ice time is too high, they are prone to mindfarts and blunders that they normally don't make. 

Which is also why I wonder how we would have fared had we had dermott and poolman in the lineup to take some of that ice time.. 

 

 

 

Myers especially but OEL has been pretty decent to really good after the first 10-12 games. 

[DarthMelvin]

People say OEL is not the problem are correct. BUT he is part of the problem.

 

 

[canuck73_3]

Just now, DarthMelvin said:

People say OEL is not the problem are correct. BUT he is part of the problem.

 

 

nah mediocre to abysmal defence after Quinn, OEL and Schenn is the problem. Even Myers is hit or miss, when he's good he's fine but he's not good often enough and mooreso not a fit here too.

[canuck73_3]

On 12/11/2022 at 3:49 AM, cuporbust said:

Lol. Absolutely nobody saw these posts coming in 2020 ( insert sarcasm). They only talked about it on sports radio as a relatively certainty the ENTIRE time these idiots chased him.  No big deal. Just another epic F up to add to the list. He's not even better than Alexander Edler at this point in his career.  I'd take Chris Tanev 100 times out of 100 over this has been . 

 

Sure hit a home run on ignoring and pissng off the other UFA'S that year ( and locker room) to land him didn't we. 

 

Who's next? Should we not even answer Bo Horvat's calls this summer to land Jonathan Toews?  Why not keep up with tradition?

 

Yes, he is better than Edler at this stage. Much better.

[HKSR]

Ok, doing this to humour @Elias Pettersson ...

 

Here's a bit of a forecast of buying out OEL.

 

As expected, we would be fine for the first couple years.  It's those 2 years of $4.8M each that we would have to navigate. 

 

Some key things to note here:

1.  Our top 4 RHD next to Hughes is assumed to be a cheap 'filler' like Bear or Schenn.  Simply cannot afford a true bonafide top pairing RHD, otherwise we run into major cap problems in 2025-26 and 2026-27.

2.  On the other hand, I've been conservative here with cap increases year over year (only $2M each year).  Could see significant jumps in a couple years, but who knows.

3.  Assuming here that we are able to develop our own top 6 forwards (Podz, Hogs, Raty, etc) and sign them to value deals.  Realistically, if any of them become 70 point forwards, they will cost much more than the $5M forecasts I've included.

 

Bottomline is we could ice a competitive team even if we bought out OEL, but I really think it seriously impacts our ability to ice a contender.  Dead cap has no business on a Stanley Cup contender.  It eats into either depth of lineup or quality of core, especially when it's as high as $4.8M per year. 

 

[Elias Pettersson]

32 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Ok, doing this to humour @Elias Pettersson ...

 

Here's a bit of a forecast of buying out OEL.

 

As expected, we would be fine for the first couple years.  It's those 2 years of $4.8M each that we would have to navigate. 

 

Some key things to note here:

1.  Our top 4 RHD next to Hughes is assumed to be a cheap 'filler' like Bear or Schenn.  Simply cannot afford a true bonafide top pairing RHD, otherwise we run into major cap problems in 2025-26 and 2026-27.

2.  On the other hand, I've been conservative here with cap increases year over year (only $2M each year).  Could see significant jumps in a couple years, but who knows.

3.  Assuming here that we are able to develop our own top 6 forwards (Podz, Hogs, Raty, etc) and sign them to value deals.  Realistically, if any of them become 70 point forwards, they will cost much more than the $5M forecasts I've included.

 

Bottomline is we could ice a competitive team even if we bought out OEL, but I really think it seriously impacts our ability to ice a contender.  Dead cap has no business on a Stanley Cup contender.  It eats into either depth of lineup or quality of core, especially when it's as high as $4.8M per year. 

 

Good job in doing these projections.  A few things.  According to CapFriendly, the cap for 2025 will be $92,000,000, so the extra cap space covers the entire buyout amount.  So, we will have almost $5 million to play with to add another Dman.  I doubt we re-sign Hoglander to a $3 million deal.  Klimovich will be ready to go by then, so we save another $2 million.  I doubt Bear is around either, I am hoping we sign Livingstone.  If so, our defence will be alot bigger.  Schenn may be around as well as a 7/8 Dman.  So, overall we are looking at an extra $7 million in cap to spend.

 

Kuzmenko (7.5)       Pettersson (11)    Beauvillier (5)

Podkolzin (3)           Miller (8)              Kravtsov (1.5)

Mikheyev (4.75)      Raty (1.5)             Klimovich (1.5)

Joshua (1.5)           Aman (1.5)              ?? (1)

?? (1)

 

Hughes (7.85)            ??

Gavrikov (5)             Hronek (7)

Tryamkin (1.5)         Livingstone (1.5)

Brisebois (1)            Schenn / Malinski (1.5)

 

Demko (5)    Silovs (1)

 

OEL - 4.8 

 

That's only $85 million out of a $92 million cap, so we have $7 million to find a partner for Hughes and to use for any retention of other players.

 

In 2 years, Podkolzin will be a beast, Kravtsov will have found his game, Raty will be a legit 3C, Klimovich will be ready for the big show, Gavrikov and Hronek will be a dynamic shutdown pairing and Petey, Hughes and Demko will all be in their prime years and the best that they will ever be.  The race to the cup will be in our sights surely...

 

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[HKSR]

9 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Good job in doing these projections.  A few things.  According to CapFriendly, the cap for 2025 will be $92,000,000, so the extra cap space covers the entire buyout amount.  So, we will have almost $5 million to play with to add another Dman.  I doubt we re-sign Hoglander to a $3 million deal.  Klimovich will be ready to go by then, so we save another $2 million.  I doubt Bear is around either, I am hoping we sign Livingstone.  If so, our defence will be alot bigger.  Schenn may be around as well as a 7/8 Dman.  So, overall we are looking at an extra $7 million in cap to spend.

 

Kuzmenko (7.5)       Pettersson (11)    Beauvillier (5)

Podkolzin (3)           Miller (8)              Kravtsov (1.5)

Mikheyev (4.75)      Raty (1.5)             Klimovich (1.5)

Joshua (1.5)           Aman (1.5)              ?? (1)

?? (1)

 

Hughes (7.85)            ??

Gavrikov (5)             Hronek (7)

Tryamkin (1.5)         Livingstone (1.5)

Brisebois (1)            Schenn / Malinski (1.5)

 

Demko (5)    Silovs (1)

 

OEL - 4.8 

 

That's only $85 million out of a $92 million cap, so we have $7 million to find a partner for Hughes and to use for any retention of other players.

 

In 2 years, Podkolzin will be a beast, Kravtsov will have found his game, Raty will be a legit 3C, Klimovich will be ready for the big show, Gavrikov and Hronek will be a dynamic shutdown pairing and Petey, Hughes and Demko will all be in their prime years and the best that they will ever be.  The race to the cup will be in our sights surely...

 

 

I think a lot hinges on what our younger players do over the next 2 or 3 years.   If we develop our prospects well internally, we could have these kinds of 'value' deals working for us.  If not, we're forced to go external, and then you won't find $1.5 or $3M top 6 wingers lol. 

 

And yes, as I mentioned, I'm conservative with my cap limit projections.  We could be well into the $90s by then, but who knows... if we're not, we fall into the same predicament that Benning found himself in a couple years ago.

 

[Elias Pettersson]

10 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think a lot hinges on what our younger players do over the next 2 or 3 years.   If we develop our prospects well internally, we could have these kinds of 'value' deals working for us.  If not, we're forced to go external, and then you won't find $1.5 or $3M top 6 wingers lol. 

 

And yes, as I mentioned, I'm conservative with my cap limit projections.  We could be well into the $90s by then, but who knows... if we're not, we fall into the same predicament that Benning found himself in a couple years ago.

 

Yes, that is important.  Of course, if we have to go out and get all $6 million players in the top 6 then our cap will not work, even without an OEL buyout.  We have to make sure that Podkolziin, Kravtsov, Raty and Klimovich are ready to go so we have cheaper deals in the top 6, some even on ELC's.  Another thing to remember is who we draft this year.  If it's Reinbacher, then he may be ready to go in 2 years and play on the 3rd pairing and maybe Livingstone is ready for a top 4 role.  If we get a forward, then that forward could replace Beauviller in the top 6 and then we don't need to re-sign him.  So there is room to maneuvre more cap space around.

 

At the end of the day, I am sure that JR/PA will go through every scenario before OEL is even considered to be a buyout option.  It depends who we draft, who we sign in the summer, etc.  Not sure when the window is for buyouts, so that is something to consider as well.  I am pretty sure that it is after the draft and after July 1 UFA day, but am not 100% certain on that...

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Yes, that is important.  Of course, if we have to go out and get all $6 million players in the top 6 then our cap will not work, even without an OEL buyout.  We have to make sure that Podkolziin, Kravtsov, Raty and Klimovich are ready to go so we have cheaper deals in the top 6, some even on ELC's.  Another thing to remember is who we draft this year.  If it's Reinbacher, then he may be ready to go in 2 years and play on the 3rd pairing and maybe Livingstone is ready for a top 4 role.  If we get a forward, then that forward could replace Beauviller in the top 6 and then we don't need to re-sign him.  So there is room to maneuvre more cap space around.

 

At the end of the day, I am sure that JR/PA will go through every scenario before OEL is even considered to be a buyout option.  It depends who we draft, who we sign in the summer, etc.  Not sure when the window is for buyouts, so that is something to consider as well.  I am pretty sure that it is after the draft and after July 1 UFA day, but am not 100% certain on that...

The thing I don't like about a buyout is that dead cap is stuck on the books.  We can't add a sweetener to move it out if we run into cap trouble. 

[Elias Pettersson]

Just now, HKSR said:

The thing I don't like about a buyout is that dead cap is stuck on the books.  We can't add a sweetener to move it out if we run into cap trouble. 

Of course.  That is the worst part.  Problem is what if JR/PA go out and get Graves/Gavrikov for the 2nd pairing?  Then what do you do?  Do you play OEL on the 3rd pairing for 4 years at $7.26 million?  If we had a 3rd pairing guy that can kill penalties and be a physical force, say a Tryamkin, for only $1.5 million who can better help the 3rd pairing, then how do we keep OEL around?  

 

Paying the buyout and then paying Tryamkin would work out to the same thing at the end of the day.  The only difference is that $2.1 million for the extra 4 years which we already talked about.

 

The only scenario where it makes sense to keep OEL for another 4 years if he is in the top 4 and on the 2nd pairing.  That's it.  If JR/PA feel comfortable rolling with him and not getting a Graves or a Gavrikov then they won't be buying out OEL.  I put that scenario at around 5% max.  I think we are all in now and Hronek was just the first domino.  One bite at a time...