HKSR Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Of course. That is the worst part. Problem is what if JR/PA go out and get Graves/Gavrikov for the 2nd pairing? Then what do you do? Do you play OEL on the 3rd pairing for 4 years at $7.26 million? If we had a 3rd pairing guy that can kill penalties and be a physical force, say a Tryamkin, for only $1.5 million who can better help the 3rd pairing, then how do we keep OEL around? Paying the buyout and then paying Tryamkin would work out to the same thing at the end of the day. The only difference is that $2.1 million for the extra 4 years which we already talked about. The only scenario where it makes sense to keep OEL for another 4 years if he is in the top 4 and on the 2nd pairing. That's it. If JR/PA feel comfortable rolling with him and not getting a Graves or a Gavrikov then they won't be buying out OEL. I put that scenario at around 5% max. I think we are all in now and Hronek was just the first domino. One bite at a time... Having OEL on the 3rd pairing isn't the end of the world either. I've ran those numbers and it works out too. The defensive core looked like: Hughes-Schenn/Livingstone/etc Gavrikov-Hronek OEL-Bear In 3 years, maybe a buyout is in the cards, and we won't be saddled with dead cap for 8 years to maneuver around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cripplereh Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, HKSR said: Having OEL on the 3rd pairing isn't the end of the world either. I've ran those numbers and it works out too. The defensive core looked like: Hughes-Schenn/Livingstone/etc Gavrikov-Hronek OEL-Bear In 3 years, maybe a buyout is in the cards, and we won't be saddled with dead cap for 8 years to maneuver around. I know there's talks about us getting Gavrikov but I wouldn't mind giving Rathbone a shot,if not trade him.Plus Bear should be gone as Johansson is coming over and we are trying to get two rhd from the NCAA. So saying that Gavrikov would be sweet meaning we buyout OEL. Edited March 10, 2023 by cripplereh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ted Lasso Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, cripplereh said: I know there's talks about us getting Gavrikov but I wouldn't mind giving Rathbone a shit,if not trade him.Plus Bear should be gone as Johansson is coming over and we are trying to get two rhd from the NCAA. So saying that Gavrikov would be sweet meaning we buyout OEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cripplereh Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said: Lol oops fixed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ted Lasso Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, cripplereh said: Lol oops fixed Agree with you about Rathbone. Time to use him or lose him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ted Lasso Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Allvin said he wants our identity to be a fast team, especially getting the puck from D to our forwards. Got me wondering if they’ll consider multiple puck movers vs balanced pairings. For example, play Hughes with Hronek and Rathbone with Malinski (if we sign him). Maybe we go with 4 PMD and 2 more classic shutdown D. Could be a cool differentiator, always having an offensively gifted D on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSVII Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Let's see if OEL can find his game back first. I'd rather play him as a mid/bottom pair contributor to lessen the buyout pain as much as possible. The cap is supposed to go up to like 86-88 mil in 2 years? If we can find efficiencies elsewhere and OEL can reinvent himself. We may be able to get away with it. My copium for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5nothincanucksohno Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Gut feeling that Bear is gone - given the injury and his likely salary expectations. They can't spend a tonne on a #5 - 6 D-man (that may or may not be able to fill in at times beside Hughes). Hughes and Hronek are the guarantees. I assume OEL is as well given his contract situation. The other three spots are question marks. QH RHD partner: Need a steady defensive D partner that is responsible and can allow QH to push offensive upside. Need someone who can play a steady, low-event 18 mins a game. Additional QH mins will be PP and could be with Hronek. I haven't watched him enough this season to know where he is at but I wonder if Calgary would consider sending Tanev back for next to nothing or a winger (one more year left on his contract)? Hronek LHD partner: I suppose a dark horse candidate like Rathbone could emerge but it is unlikely. This is definitely where mgmt should allocate a larger portion of the available cap towards. Gavrikov, etc. OEL RHD partner OEL is an offensive D-man that is being asked to be a defensive D-man (not an excuse for his play but a reality). He needs to be put in a position to flourish offensively so a responsible low event partner is required. In sheltered mins, I believe he could be productively offensively and hopefully play low event hockey. Maybe the current group of #6 - 10 group of defenders can deliver by committee at a low cap hit Useful #6 - 10 D: Juulsen, Brisebois, Burroughs, Wolanin, etc. QH xx Xx Hronek OEL xx 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred65 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 From all the comments from PA I tend to think Johansson will be here and then it's fingers crossed for Livingston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 On 3/10/2023 at 9:39 AM, DSVII said: Let's see if OEL can find his game back first. I'd rather play him as a mid/bottom pair contributor to lessen the buyout pain as much as possible. The cap is supposed to go up to like 86-88 mil in 2 years? If we can find efficiencies elsewhere and OEL can reinvent himself. We may be able to get away with it. My copium for today. Don't see that happening with the Bally's fiasco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU SERIOUS Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 13 hours ago, 5nothincanucksohno said: Gut feeling that Bear is gone - given the injury and his likely salary expectations. They can't spend a tonne on a #5 - 6 D-man (that may or may not be able to fill in at times beside Hughes). Hughes and Hronek are the guarantees. I assume OEL is as well given his contract situation. The other three spots are question marks. QH RHD partner: Need a steady defensive D partner that is responsible and can allow QH to push offensive upside. Need someone who can play a steady, low-event 18 mins a game. Additional QH mins will be PP and could be with Hronek. I haven't watched him enough this season to know where he is at but I wonder if Calgary would consider sending Tanev back for next to nothing or a winger (one more year left on his contract)? Hronek LHD partner: I suppose a dark horse candidate like Rathbone could emerge but it is unlikely. This is definitely where mgmt should allocate a larger portion of the available cap towards. Gavrikov, etc. OEL RHD partner OEL is an offensive D-man that is being asked to be a defensive D-man (not an excuse for his play but a reality). He needs to be put in a position to flourish offensively so a responsible low event partner is required. In sheltered mins, I believe he could be productively offensively and hopefully play low event hockey. Maybe the current group of #6 - 10 group of defenders can deliver by committee at a low cap hit Useful #6 - 10 D: Juulsen, Brisebois, Burroughs, Wolanin, etc. QH xx Xx Hronek OEL xx It's pretty-well a given that we have OEL for a bit longer as a buyout is too punishing and no other team would be insane to take on his contract - unless - the Canucks give up something of high value to entice a trade. So get used to having him around for awhile unless Tock-it can re-establish the severe anomosity between him and OEL they apparetly had in the past that many described as a "Fire & Water" relationship. If Tocket can piss him off enough and make life miserable for him then maybe OEL might make the first move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 Welp... it happened. So.... lemme get to work on Excel for an update lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 Here's a rough forecast for the next 5 years that includes OEL's buyout. Projections/estimates are in blue. It's not terrible, but I think we will run into some cap issues in 2024-25 and 2025-26 unless we make additional trades, or unless the cap goes up a lot more than a projected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 (edited) ...oops moot point as he's been bought out. Edited June 16, 2023 by NewbieCanuckFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McBackup Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 We better win the cup next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiTaniuM Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, HKSR said: Here's a rough forecast for the next 5 years that includes OEL's buyout. Projections/estimates are in blue. It's not terrible, but I think we will run into some cap issues in 2024-25 and 2025-26 unless we make additional trades, or unless the cap goes up a lot more than a projected. Basically projected cap increase from 24 to 28 is wiped out because of this. Too bad they've chosen to do this this year, I would’ve given him one more year. Looks like they might be going all in again and dip into UFA market big time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeanSeanBean Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Thanks Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman64 Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 On 12/8/2022 at 10:24 AM, HKSR said: June 16, 2023: UPDATED TO INCLUDE OEL BUYOUT with MULTI YEAR FORECAST. SEE UPDATED SPREADSHEET HERE: A crazy idea, but what do things look like if we bought out OEL? The cap hits are as follows: 2023-24: $146,667 2024-25: $2,346,667 2025-26: $4,766,667 2026-27: $4,766,667 2027-28: $2,126,667 2028-29: $2,126,667 2029-30: $2,126,667 2030-31: $2,126,667 I'm gonna assume the following: - Trade Myers with $2M retained for nothing but a pick or prospect - Trade Pearson with $1.2M retained for a pick or prospect - Horvat re-signed at $8M AAV - Kuzmenko re-signed at $7M AAV - Various raises for the other pending FAs (Hoglander, Bear, etc) Buys us some time to move Boeser later = more leverage in a deal. Would be a lot easier to find a solid shut down top 4 LHD. Thoughts? And done! Never saw it coming or thought it would happen but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman64 Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 1 hour ago, McBackup said: We better win the cup next year. In your dreams..like we have depth for that, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xanlet Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 This team won't be competitive now until the mid 2030s, great job management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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