[Discussion] Kuzmenko Extension

[wildcam]

3 hours ago, HKSR said:

So one thing that baffles me on here is how so many people think Kuzmenko is gonna sign a 'show me' deal, or a bridge deal.

 

WHY?  WHY ON EARTH WOULD HE DO THAT?

 

Kuzmenko will be 27 years old by the time he signs an extension.  If you were him, and never made any big bucks in the NHL before, would YOU sign a 1 to 3 year deal that transfers ALL of the risk to you?  What if you hit a slump next season?  What if you get injured?  What if, what if, what if?

 

Reality is there is a really good chance that Kuzmenko hits 30 goals and 75 to 80 points this season.  Those are great numbers and puts him easily in the $7M+ AAV range.  As a UFA, I have zero doubt that a team would be more than willing to hand him a $50M deal over 7 years. 

 

I just laugh and cringe when I see people here thinking he will go ahead and put pen to paper on a 3 year deal worth $5M per year lol.  Keep dreaming CDC... keep dreaming.

 

Kuzmenko 27 UFA will be in driver seat lets say he ends up with GP 75  G 25 PTS 55 - Will demand 3 yrs X 4.5--4.9 million

Canucks will be in a tough spot..

[Crabcakes]

2 hours ago, Fanuck said:

In before someone suggests he's taking a 'hometown discount'.......

If you've got a player making less than $1M and he puts up north of 30 goals / 60 points, THAT's a pretty good discount.  Karnac says, Kuz signs a 5 year deal

[Jester13]

Management HAS to find a way to trade dead weight and keep both Kuz and Bo. Petey finally has the perfect skilled winger for him, and now Bo with Miller. If they truly want to make a go with this core, these two need to stay. If not, bite the gdang bullet and rebuild already. Fack.

[Rabbit]

Bo is the centre, Kuz is a winger, compare with these two players are not so appropriate.

Just want to compare with another winger - JT.

I will select to keep Kuz, not only the skill but the attitude.

[higgyfan]

I think it's too early for giving Kuze a ++$ contract.  How often have we seen guys come into the league

and have an incredibly successful season, only to find the other teams have 'read the book on him' and

his numbers plummet in his 2nd year.

 

Kuze has a terrific wrist shot, as well as a very good hockey sense around the net.  He has also benefited 

greatly from playing alongside Pete and playing on the #1 PP.

 

 

 

[Odd.]

Perhaps he signs another 1 year deal at 6-7M

[Devron]

[R3aL]

5 hours ago, HKSR said:

So one thing that baffles me on here is how so many people think Kuzmenko is gonna sign a 'show me' deal, or a bridge deal.

 

WHY?  WHY ON EARTH WOULD HE DO THAT?

 

Kuzmenko will be 27 years old by the time he signs an extension.  If you were him, and never made any big bucks in the NHL before, would YOU sign a 1 to 3 year deal that transfers ALL of the risk to you?  What if you hit a slump next season?  What if you get injured?  What if, what if, what if?

 

Reality is there is a really good chance that Kuzmenko hits 30 goals and 75 to 80 points this season.  Those are great numbers and puts him easily in the $7M+ AAV range.  As a UFA, I have zero doubt that a team would be more than willing to hand him a $50M deal over 7 years. 

 

I just laugh and cringe when I see people here thinking he will go ahead and put pen to paper on a 3 year deal worth $5M per year lol.  Keep dreaming CDC... keep dreaming.

 

Think he will want a 5-6 Year Deal.

 

Trevor Moore and Mikehyev are good examples of the floor of his deal.

 

He is going to get 5-6.5 / 6-5 Years I think.

 

I think around 30 Million Total Money deal with bonuses gets him but hey maybe he just wants max deal he can get and doesn't care and if some team wants to give him $7 plus and thats what he wants then we better trade him if we aren't gonna sign him.

 

 

 

[R3aL]

25 minutes ago, Odd. said:

Perhaps he signs another 1 year deal at 6-7M

That is possible maybe he thinks he can have an even bigger year and really bet on himself.

[jyu]

5 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Kuzmenko is already on pace this year for 39 goals.  So 50 goals isn't out of the question in year 2...

This sounds so much like, "Boeser scored 29 goals in 62 games, he's 100% going to score 40 goals in year 2..."

 

^I was one of the believers, that Boeser was on his way to many 40+ goal seasons.

 

It's a hard call with Kuz. I wouldn't mind betting on him and give him a big contract, 7 mil x 5 or 6 years. But we will have to unload Boeser or Garland.

 

 

[Odd.]

31 minutes ago, R3aL said:

That is possible maybe he thinks he can have an even bigger year and really bet on himself.

Yeah, that’s what I see likely happening.

 

This year is show us if you’re NHL material, and next year would be prove you’re “that guy” deal. And if he has a good year next year too, then I can see a 6 year 7.5-8.5M contract.

 

If we don’t trade him, i think we re sign him for a 1 year $6M deal. Obviously, that would be the safest thing to do and something management is likely to try and do. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Odd.

[BlakeQuinnAndEggs]

16 minutes ago, jyu said:

This sounds so much like, "Boeser scored 29 goals in 62 games, he's 100% going to score 40 goals in year 2..."

 

^I was one of the believers, that Boeser was on his way to many 40+ goal seasons.

 

It's a hard call with Kuz. I wouldn't mind betting on him and give him a big contract, 7 mil x 5 or 6 years. But we will have to unload Boeser or Garland.

 

 

Me too, that rookie wrist shot was lethal. I thought we found a Brett hull lite.

 

But we are Canucks fans we are used to being let down lol.

[The_Rocket]

On pace for 75 points right now but he’s shooting 24%. If he shoots 12% for the rest of the season, he’ll score another 12 or 13 goals (based on his current shots per game). 
 

that’ll put him in the 60-70 point range with around 25ish goals. 
 

reasonable comps would include:

 

hyman

E Kane

R strome

burakosky

mason marchment

ondrej palat

pavel buchnevich

mangiapane

 

so 3-7 years and 5-6 million

 

imo, based on small sample, third line ice time, and not being trusted for Dzone assignments, kuzmenko will only have his offensive output to rely on for negotiations (unlike Hyman, marchment, mangiapne, or palat) so a 5x5 would be pretty reasonable and inline with his offensive play

Edited December 16, 2022 by The_Rocket

[VanCan2023]

3 hours ago, higgyfan said:

I think it's too early for giving Kuze a ++$ contract.  How often have we seen guys come into the league

and have an incredibly successful season, only to find the other teams have 'read the book on him' and

his numbers plummet in his 2nd year.

 

Kuze has a terrific wrist shot, as well as a very good hockey sense around the net.  He has also benefited 

greatly from playing alongside Pete and playing on the #1 PP.

 

 

 

Turning the table on the who we should/shouldn't extend (forward) talk, it is high time we talk about a much needed deference man who is quietly doing what is asked and then some.... Ethan Bear. Kid loves it in Van, and should just improve. Even if he stays status quo, the money he gets will be a bonus for what he brings. Looks like a perfect fit for both the organisation and him, and should come at a decent price. 

After seeing his after hours last week, I still cant believe they passed him by on the second half of after hours around 6 weeks ago so Horvat could talk about his commercial with McDavid and other meaningless crap. CBC dodged a bullet for not getting hit by the social media grenade there.

[hammertime]

4 hours ago, wildcam said:

Kuzmenko 27 UFA will be in driver seat lets say he ends up with GP 75  G 25 PTS 55 - Will demand 3 yrs X 4.5--4.9 million

Canucks will be in a tough spot..

I'm down. Git er dunn!

[PunjabiCanucks]

I'd give Kuzmenko 5 x 5 if he took it, but thats us taking a risk long term and him selling low only after 1 season.

[Curmudgeon]

If you can find a way to offload Horvat and Boeser and Myers, without taking back too much salary, you can easily afford Kuzmenko. I can dream, can't I?

[*Buzzsaw*]

8 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Kuzmenko is already on pace this year for 39 goals.  So 50 goals isn't out of the question in year 2...

The assumption Kuzmenko will continue at his current goal production rate is a typical error hockey fans make.

 

He is new to the league, there was no opposition book on him and his go-to moves, and like a lot of newcomers with talent, he is taking advantage of being an unknown.

 

Plus its the start of the year... nearly everyone scores at a higher rate in the first half of the season than they do in the second half.

 

Lets see what is happening at the end of February and beginning of March.

[R3aL]

4 hours ago, Odd. said:

Yeah, that’s what I see likely happening.

 

This year is show us if you’re NHL material, and next year would be prove you’re “that guy” deal. And if he has a good year next year too, then I can see a 6 year 7.5-8.5M contract.

 

If we don’t trade him, i think we re sign him for a 1 year $6M deal. Obviously, that would be the safest thing to do and something management is likely to try and do. 

Ya especially if he thinks he can be more than a PPG or just to have to have 2 full season under his belt at his age he could cash in huge. And this is really his only shot for the big nhl money. He could bet on himself and secure an absolute monster contract hoping next year average salaries increase again, and salary cap goes up more than what it did this season. 
 

but if he gets an offer now that hits his goals / target he could get locked up now too. 

[IBatch]

Panarin is a good comp.   Kuzmenko is a little older so get that too.   That said he signed a two year deal, then another two year deal.   Then he got his legacy deal.

 

Im one of those guys that suggest we offer him a 2-3 year deal.    At around 5.  Panarin got a 3.5 x 2 deal, then 6 x 2.   And sorry folks, Kuzmenko isn't Panarin.  

 

He had to prove himself and he did just that.   One year ... If  team wants to sign him to full term be their guest, I sure wouldn't do that unless the AVV was quite low.    We don't even know if he can play 82 games yet, or what happens once the second season starts.   Does anyone remember that guy from NSH?  Who became a KHL superstar, did things there that neither Panarin or Kuzmenko did, came back, and really wasn't that great.    Is Kuzmenko a line driver on his own like Panarin?   Put him on his own line and see how that goes for awhile, against lesser competition.    Like Bruce did with Hogs last game. 

 

Id be ok with him getting Brocks cap hit on a long term deal IF the intent is EPs long term wing man.    I'd also be OK trading him at the deadline if a reasonable deal can't be made.   To me a reasonable deal is a 2 year one, just like Panarin, he should also prove himself first, not a one year wonder.   Prefer 3 but get that he's a bit too old for that  puts him a bit past his prime earning bracket.   Also not all UFAs are getting their big money this summer.   Bettman remarks, a couple days ago, one million is their expectation.    We will see some more Klingberg stuff, and that's a guy who's proven himself in this league for a long time.    Only Horvat and a handful of guys will get max deals.