(Rumour) 4 teams interested in J.T. Miller

[Mustard Tiger]

As expected. You have to be on drugs to think gms wouldn't take him still. They all shell out the worst deals ever in UFA all the time lmao. 

 

This better not mean signing horvat though. He needs to go. Our fanbases addiction of paying to make capspace so we can retain the same guys and pay them more while thinking outcomes will change as the player ages needs to stop 

[aGENT]

Just now, Elias Pettersson said:

If Carolina were to buy out KK this summer their total savings would be over $23 million.  And they'd only have a cap hit of $822,000.  Obviously, they are not going to buy him out this soon, but the fact his contract is so buyout friendly means they have no reason to trade him at all as a cap dump with picks and prospects attached.  He is also an effective 3C, he just isn't worth anywhere near $5 million right now.  However, Carolina does not have any cap issues moving forward.  After next season they will have over $60 million in cap space.  So they have no motivation to move KK's contract at all.

 

5 minutes ago, coryberg said:

That would cost them 11.5 million in cash and that $822,857 cap hit would be for 14 years. That would take some crazy desperation.

As @corybergpointed out, it's still $11.5m in cash and 14 years of cap penalty to pay a guy to not play for you. Don't see that happening. Especially in Carolina (whose ownership seems quite *ahem* pragmatic).

 

And that $60m in space is going to disappear fast once their expiring guys get extensions. Or are they just letting Slavin, Aho etc walk to UFA?

[Dazzle]

Just now, Mustard Tiger said:

As expected. You have to be on drugs to think gms wouldn't take him still. They all shell out the worst deals ever in UFA all the time lmao. 

 

This better not mean signing horvat though. He needs to go. Our fanbases addiction of paying to make capspace so we can retain the same guys and pay them more while thinking outcomes will change as the player ages needs to stop 

The amount of buying without any consideration for consequences reminds me of those people who buy stuff because it's a good deal, not because they actually needed it.

[DrJockitch]

7 minutes ago, Crabcakes said:

Miller isn't having an off year.  He's having a normal year.  He had a career year last year, this year, he's regressed to his mean.  Look at his year over year stats.  He's a 70 point player and $8M is a fair number for 70 - 80 points.   

 

Can they move Miller?  It's a big ask but if $8M is a reasonable number as I think it is, the answer is yes.  But the number of teams who really would take him are severely limited.

 

Allvin clearly has a lot of work to do.  I pretty much agree with the rest of what you say.

 

Does anybody really think that Yzerman, patient man that he is, would bring in Miller?

 

And then there were 3....

I think this is true but only on the offensive end. When Miller came over from a quality organization he played a better two way game. As his offence developed he increasingly abandoned the defensive side. Last year it went out the window completely so he could run up his scoring for contract and he has not been able to find it or his fitness so far since. 
‘Very common to have a down year after signing big contract, this is certainly not an exclusive JTM thing but it is a concerning trend of increasingly poor defensive game if he isn’t scoring at elite level. 

[Mustard Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

The amount of buying without any consideration for consequences reminds me of those people who buy stuff because it's a good deal, not because they actually needed it.

Yup. In this instance with horvat it's like many want to re sign him at the worst possible time. He's not doing what he needs to do very well ( play the 2way 2C game, Strong defensively ) and instead doing what great for him and his new contract... Scoring tons of goals. 

 

We do this every year since 2012. Everyone is scared to let what they know go. Must retain everyone because they are a canuck!! Hellllll naahhh that's ruined a decade for us.

 

Signing him now is like buying something at Canadian tire not on sale. It's not worth it because it's going to drop back down to it's normal rate soon after

Edited January 8, 2023 by Mustard Tiger

[Elias Pettersson]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

As @corybergpointed out, it's still $11.5m in cash and 14 years of cap penalty to pay a guy to not play for you. Don't see that happening. Especially in Carolina (whose ownership seems quite *ahem* pragmatic).

 

And that $60m in space is going to disappear fast once their expiring guys get extensions. Or are they just letting Slavin, Aho etc walk to UFA?

Obviously, they are not buying him out this summer.  If it gets to a point that in 2-3 years they want to get rid of him then that is always an option with such a buyout friendly contract.

 

Aho, Necas and Slavin will only account for less than $30 million out of that $62 million in cap space.  They have young players as well that will fill other holes.  With Pacioretty, Burns, Gardiner and Anderson coming off the books they have zero cap issues moving forward.  Svechnikov is signed to a great deal at under $8 million until he is 29.  They can lock up Aho in the $10 million range in two years and have both of them at under $18 million.  With $62 million in cap space they can be flexible and methodical in how they move forward.  I see them in the running to sign Horvat in the summer to fill that 2C spot.

[spook007]

14 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

There is zero evidence that JR is ACTIVELY trying to move Miller.  If a team like the Rangers came along and gave us an offer we couldn't refuse, then absolutely everyone is on the trade block in that scenario.  But in terms of JR calling teams right now and trying to push a Miller trade, I think that is absolutely 100% false.  The guy they are pushing to trade is Bo Horvat.  I'm absolutely certain of that and JR's direct quotes that if they can't sigh him they will trade him tells me that is true.

 

If Horvat isn't re-signed by the TDL he absolutely 100% will be traded...

Definitely...

They simply can not afford to take the chance, he'll sign in the summer, and risk letting him leave for nothing. 
The plan was laid out last summer, when they signed Miller to his deal...

I am however sure, that a few in the management team are sitting with sweaty palms now, as Bo has been tearing it up, while Miller not so much so...

But regardless, atm unless a dance partner is found for Miller, I also see Bo being the one leaving. 
They can find the money to keep him, but then we are going nowhere really. 
Don't see us gaining much by trading Boeser, and may even have to retain. 

If the management is doubling down on the plan they laid out last summer, I'm sure Bo is history.. only positive thing is, for each goal he scores, the more interesting he becomes to potential suitors, especially with money retained....

Should bring a good haul, but its a mess...

Edited January 9, 2023 by spook007

[Elias Pettersson]

7 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

I think this is true but only on the offensive end. When Miller came over from a quality organization he played a better two way game. As his offence developed he increasingly abandoned the defensive side. Last year it went out the window completely so he could run up his scoring for contract and he has not been able to find it or his fitness so far since. 
‘Very common to have a down year after signing big contract, this is certainly not an exclusive JTM thing but it is a concerning trend of increasingly poor defensive game if he isn’t scoring at elite level. 

This is the problem when we don't have a good defensive structure in place.  Players are cheating defensively to pad their stats and not considering the defensive side of the game.  With a new coach and a better defensive structure I am sure Miller and the other players would pay more attention to the defensive side of the game.

[luckylager]

14 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Maybe the issue was the return wasn't as good as we thought it would be? 

If that was the case, they misread the market but still shouldve taken the best offer on Miller last TDL. 

His value has only gone down and we lost all leverage.

[Crabcakes]

50 minutes ago, Alflives said:

The allotment of our cap space for our centres is a lot less if we move Miller for Kotkaniemi.  And we get a lot of years of JK in his mid twenties.  A lot of people would be excited about this deal.  I wouldn’t do Bo for JK unless there was a lot more coming back. 

Kotkaniemi is a pig in a poke.  Why on earth do we take on another crap contract?  We have more than our share already.  Surely we can do better than that.

 

Just what is Allvin up to?  Can he have a team with this cap structure?

• Pettersson 9.5
• Horvat 8.5
• Miller 8.0
• Kuzmenko 7.5
• Hughes 7.8
• Ekman-Larson 7.2 (only because I think he's too hard to move)

What does it take?

1. No giant contracts (sorry, no Bedards)
2. No inefficient contracts (OEL is a problem, Myers, Boeser, Garland, etc)
3. A lot of players under $2M

Allvin has already been working on getting a lot of players in on low contracts.  I'm sure he's working on trimming the fat but substantial deals are hard to make under a flat cap.  There is an immediate problem to solve with Horvat which is going to require $3M of cap cleared.  It's easy to move him at the deadline but what a hole to fill!

 

I think they can also hold a few players with mid range contracts to round out the top 6 and top 4 (4-5M) but how many depends on how efficient they can become with respect to the cap.

 

[Elias Pettersson]

6 minutes ago, Mustard Tiger said:

Yup. In this instance with horvat it's like many want to re sign him at the worst possible time. He's not doing what he needs to do very well ( play the 2way 2C game, Strong defensively ) and instead doing what great for him and his new contract... Scoring tons of goals. 

 

We do this every year since 2012. Everyone is scared to let what they know go. Must retain everyone because they are a canuck!! Hellllll naahhh that's ruined a decade for us.

 

Signing him now is like buying something at Canadian tire not on sale. It's not worth it because it's going to drop back down to it's normal rate soon after

CDC is upset because we re-signed Miller after he had a career year to a retirement contract.  Also, CDC is upset because we are NOT re-signing Horvat to a retirement contract after having a career year.  Miller regressed after getting paid but there is no way Horvat will ever do that, he will just keep scoring goals forever.

 

People want to get rid of Miller to fix the "mistake", but they want JR to do the exact same thing with Horvat as they did with Miller because it definitely won't be a mistake this time.  Nope, Horvat is the real deal.  He will never let us down after he gets that $64 million...

[stawns]

27 minutes ago, aGENT said:

You don't think they'd give up Morrow, playing in the NCAA... But they'd give up Jarvis, a major and successful part of their contending roster....?

I don't think so, no.  They can absorb the loss of a winger more than a dman as tyeyll need morrow to step in over the next year or two.

[Crabcakes]

19 minutes ago, R3aL said:

And if he played winger with petey more and / or there wasn’t all these negative narratives and storylines and distractions he’d prolly be out scoring his mistakes a little more too.

 

he’s been better than a lot of players on the league making his current salary and his salary that kicks in next year. 
 

id still like to move him though if it meant being able to keep Horvat 

There's this new thing.  Miller Petey Kuzmenko

 

Why didn't they try this before?  We'll see where this takes us.

 

I think that when people see Horvat for 8.5 or what ever it is they think omg, they have to move somebody big.  It's a $3M raise.  Pearson for a pick would do the trick.

[J.I.A.H.N]

Here is what I think about a JK for Miller trade.....they are both over paid by 1 million dollars on this years performance..............so with that being even, a trade of these 2 players is very reasonable from a cap perspective.

 

So now you get to the heart of the trade...............Millers 70 to 90 point actual production to JK's actual production..............one is a 1st liner and 1 is a 3rd liner

 

The cost of the difference IMO is a late 1st and a prospect (Miller is not a dime a dozen player)

 

The only caveat to that whole argument is the buyout if one does not work, which JK wins hands down with a buyout of less than 1 million per, but if Carolina wants to stay competitive, they must replace some of their players that are aging out...aka Staal and maybe Patches, who has a torn Achilles Heal

 

Personally, I do not think there are many players as good as Miller available this year. (People looking at Ryan O'Rielly should really look at his +/- and his no real points.

Pretty much a useless player. IMO (-23 at Even strength, and no Power play ability)

 

 

[stawns]

7 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

CDC is upset because we re-signed Miller after he had a career year to a retirement contract.  Also, CDC is upset because we are NOT re-signing Horvat to a retirement contract after having a career year.  Miller regressed after getting paid but there is no way Horvat will ever do that, he will just keep scoring goals forever.

 

People want to get rid of Miller to fix the "mistake", but they want JR to do the exact same thing with Horvat as they did with Miller because it definitely won't be a mistake this time.  Nope, Horvat is the real deal.  He will never let us down after he gets that $64 million...

Because they can absorb the loss of Miller.  Losing horvat and keeping miller will cripple the franchise imo.  On top of being an elite faceoff guy, good two way cman, the leader on the team, a consistent offensive producer, he's now added top level goal scorer to his resume.  

 

And if you think Millers attitude stinks now, wait until horvats gone and miller realizes he's signed on to a team going in the opposite direction he wants his s career to go.  He'll be intolerable on the ice and in the room.  How do you think Petey is going to react to that?

Edited January 8, 2023 by stawns

[J.I.A.H.N]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

Because they can absorb the loss of Miller.  Losing horvat and keeping miller will cripple the franchise imo.  On top of being an elite faceoff guy, good two way cman, the leader on the team, a consistent offensive producer, he's now added top level goal scorer to his resume.  

 

And if you think Millers attitude stinks now, wait until horvats gone and miller realizes he's signed on to a team going in the opposite direction he wants his s career to go.  He'll be intolerable on the ice and in the room.  How do you think Petey is going to react to that?

I do not disagree with of things Horvat brings to the table other than "Leader of the team" ......where has he lead them? When have you seen him create energy by doing more? That is my actual only complaint with Horvat............other than his leadership he is a great asset.

[aGENT]

13 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Obviously, they are not buying him out this summer.  If it gets to a point that in 2-3 years they want to get rid of him then that is always an option with such a buyout friendly contract.

 

Aho, Necas and Slavin will only account for less than $30 million out of that $62 million in cap space.  They have young players as well that will fill other holes.  With Pacioretty, Burns, Gardiner and Anderson coming off the books they have zero cap issues moving forward.  Svechnikov is signed to a great deal at under $8 million until he is 29.  They can lock up Aho in the $10 million range in two years and have both of them at under $18 million.  With $62 million in cap space they can be flexible and methodical in how they move forward.  I see them in the running to sign Horvat in the summer to fill that 2C spot.

They also need to re-up (or replace) Teräväinen, Necas, Fast, Martinook, Stastny, Jarvis, Pesce, Skej and a starting goalie in the next couple years. Yes they're relatively well positioned to do so, but all that supposed cap space is an illusion. It's largely spoken for.

 

And yes, I see Horvat as a stellar fit there at 2C (arguably their biggest need).

 

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

I don't think so, no.  They can absorb the loss of a winger more than a dman as tyeyll need morrow to step in over the next year or two.

Not one of their better wingers, on a bargain ELC, with his entire prime ahead of him.

 

If they're sending us a winger off their roster, it will be someone like Fast, Stepan or Martinook. There's next to zero chance we're getting Jarvis.

[ilduce39]

I brought it up earlier and I still like the idea of a trade around Kotkaniemi for Miller.  They wouldn’t have to add much for me.  Add in their (assumed very late) 1st and I’d drive Miller to the airport. 
 

KK has had great possession stats in 13-14 minutes a night his whole career. He’s chippy.  Big. A natural C. 50+% on face offs the last 2 seasons.
 

Yes you’d prefer around 40 points to 25-30 but if he was doing that he’d be prohibitively expensive as opposed to likely very available. Pretty small margin for improvement to become a solid asset.

 

edit: he’s also younger than Linus Karlsson, our top C prospect at the moment. 

Edited January 8, 2023 by ilduce39

[stawns]

1 minute ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

I do not disagree with of things Horvat brings to the table other than "Leader of the team" ......where has he lead them? When have you seen him create energy by doing more? That is my actual only complaint with Horvat............other than his leadership he is a great asset.

One person doesn't lead a team anywhere, but he is the captain and leader of the team.  It's up to management to get the coach the right players and up to the coach to get them to play systems that will be successful.......tysts mostly where the failure is.

 

Two players fans can't complain about through any of this is Horvat and Petey.......they're carrying this team on their backs 

 

[stawns]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

They also need to re-up (or replace) Teräväinen, Necas, Fast, Martinook, Stastny, Jarvis, Pesce, Skej and a starting goalie in the next couple years. Yes they're relatively well positioned to do so, but all that supposed cap space is an illusion. It's largely spoken for.

 

And yes, I see Horvat as a stellar fit there at 2C (arguably their biggest need).

 

Not one of their better wingers, on a bargain ELC, with his entire prime ahead of him.

 

If they're sending us a winger off their roster, it will be someone like Fast, Stepan or Martinook. There's next to zero chance we're getting Jarvis.

I disagree.......Jarvis is an undersized winger who's played decently well, but will likely never be as productive or impactful as Miller.  Miller makes them the clear cut favourite for the Cup, imo.