Popular Post SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME Posted February 6, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted February 6, 2023 Buying out Garland would be asinine. Even trading him, for anything less than a healthy return, would be pretty dumb. He’s having an off year, but he’s only one season removed from scoring 52 points, almost entirely at 5v5. He was arguable our best even strength player last season. Just look at these 2021-22 stats: 18 GAR, 3.2 WAR, 13.9 EVO, 3.5 EVD That’s highly impressive. By Evolving Hockey’s calculations (based on those GAR/WAR stats), 2021-22 Garland provided a whopping $13.7 million in value for the Vancouver Canucks that season. Garland isn’t really even a bad contract. He should not be viewed that way. And he definitely shouldn’t be bought out or cap dumped in a low/zero return trade. This season, his production and on-ice impact have clearly taken a step back, but even given that he’s having an off year, he’s still on pace for around 40 points, and he still likely finishes the season with net positive analytics (albeit only modestly so). Here’s a good quote from Cam Charron’s recent piece in The Athletic: “If you squint hard enough, you could argue Garland is actually having a halfway-decent season, but he’s getting unlucky with shooting percentages: His five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 6.7 percent is the lowest since his rookie year, and his individual five-on-five shooting percentage is a career-low 7.8 percent. He’s second on the team in shot rate and, by my own tracking, fifth among regular forwards (counting Horvat) in controlled offensive zone entry rate, third in controlled defensive zone exit rate, and third in turnovers that are forced in the attacking zone. The Canucks’ game plan with Garland needs to be patience and avoiding the urge to sell him to any buyer before his value recovers.” We need to be patient with Garland. He’s very likely to bounce back season next year. It would suck to watch him do that with another team (especially while still paying him on a buyout, or having just dumped him for no real return). I’m not against a trade, if there’s actually something of significant value coming back. But that doesn’t seem to be part of the current conversation around this player. If the market for Garland is that poor right now, it makes no zero sense to me to “sell low” on him, just to move a contract. There are plenty of better candidates on this team for cap dumps and buyouts. And there’s a very good chance that 2023-24 Garland will prove to be worth more than his salary (like he was in 2021-22), and provide better value for this team than any replacement player that could be acquired using his $4.95 AAV. 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHL97OneTimer Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12 hours ago, HKSR said: Yes. Whoever came out with this rumour is stupid. Buying out Garland is a 6 year dead cap hit! 2023-24 - 839k 2024-25 - 839k 2025-26 - 1.8m 2026-27 - 1.9m 2027-28 - 1.9m 2028-29 - 1.9m Why the ____ would the Canucks do that? You could retain $1.25M on his $4.95M cap hit to make him a $3.7M cap player. He would DEFINITELY bring assets back at that price. Not only that, you'd only have dead cap for 3 years instead of 6: 2023-24 - $1.25 2024-25 - $1.25 2025-26 - $1.25 So this whole thread is pointless. If the Canucks did buyout Garland, their cap strategist needs to be fired on the spot. EDIT: You know who should and could be bought it? Riley "Tank Commander" Stillman. Dead Cap: 2023-24 - 225k 2024-25 - 225k Saves over $1M in cap per season. It's pretty appalling to think about the number of years we've had dead cap space though (more like when did we not have dead cap space?!!!). But I agree with Stillman to a point.....it's very short-term at a time when we shouldn't be worried about bringing in expensive assets anyway. If they can't trade him or lose him to waivers without dead cap space, then this makes good sense. I just hope the Canucks find a way to create a lot of cap space in the next 6 months because that can be a huge asset to bringing in good draft picks and prospects without giving up more players (e.g. take on bad contracts that expire like Arizona did with us, but with draft picks or prospects in return). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ted Lasso Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 21 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said: Buying out Garland would be asinine. Even trading him, for anything less than a healthy return, would be pretty dumb. He’s having an off year, but he’s only one season removed from scoring 52 points, almost entirely at 5v5. He was arguable our best even strength player last season. Just look at these 2021-22 stats: 18 GAR, 3.2 WAR, 13.9 EVO, 3.5 EVD That’s highly impressive. By Evolving Hockey’s calculations (based on those GAR/WAR stats), 2021-22 Garland provided a whopping $13.7 million in value for the Vancouver Canucks that season. Garland isn’t really even a bad contract. He should not be viewed that way. And he definitely shouldn’t be bought out or cap dumped in a low/zero return trade. This season, his production and on-ice impact have clearly taken a step back, but even given that he’s having an off year, he’s still on pace for around 40 points, and he still likely finishes the season with net positive analytics (albeit only modestly so). Here’s a good quote from Cam Charron’s recent piece in The Athletic: “If you squint hard enough, you could argue Garland is actually having a halfway-decent season, but he’s getting unlucky with shooting percentages: His five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 6.7 percent is the lowest since his rookie year, and his individual five-on-five shooting percentage is a career-low 7.8 percent. He’s second on the team in shot rate and, by my own tracking, fifth among regular forwards (counting Horvat) in controlled offensive zone entry rate, third in controlled defensive zone exit rate, and third in turnovers that are forced in the attacking zone. The Canucks’ game plan with Garland needs to be patience and avoiding the urge to sell him to any buyer before his value recovers.” We need to be patient with Garland. He’s very likely to bounce back season next year. It would suck to watch him do that with another team (especially while still paying him on a buyout, or having just dumped him for no real return). I’m not against a trade, if there’s actually something of significant value coming back. But that doesn’t seem to be part of the current conversation around this player. If the market for Garland is that poor right now, it makes no zero sense to me to “sell low” on him, just to move a contract. There are plenty of better candidates on this team for cap dumps and buyouts. And there’s a very good chance that 2023-24 Garland will prove to be worth more than his salary (like he was in 2021-22), and provide better value for this team than any replacement player that could be acquired using his $4.95 AAV. We’ll said, I think he’ll thrive again under Tocchet. He’s been taking most of his shots from very sharp angles near the goal line this year, which is likely depressing his shooting % and point totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgarM Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I don't think the right line mates have come his way yet. If you are open, he will find you. I see many times he is looking for someone to pass to and there is no one. Then he is stuck trying to go one on one and then loses the puck. I am hoping Tocchet will figure this out eventually and he is utilized to get the most out of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westcoastcanucks777 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 We can not buy him out you fools! He’s a good hockey player can do scoring role lower budget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitz-Pix Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Garlands Stats since Tocchet's arrival... 5 Points in 5 games...let the coach build up his confidence and stats and decide what to do with him at the TDL or offseason. It would be a shame to sell low on him...JMO Last 5 games Opponent Date G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG S Shifts TOI NJD FEB 6 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 23 15:26 CBJ JAN 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 21 16:49 SEA JAN 25 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 20 13:06 CHI JAN 24 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 5 20 16:13 EDM JAN 21 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0 1 18 16:16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgarM Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 23 minutes ago, Blitz-Pix said: Garlands Stats since Tocchet's arrival... 5 Points in 5 games...let the coach build up his confidence and stats and decide what to do with him at the TDL or offseason. It would be a shame to sell low on him...JMO Last 5 games Opponent Date G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG S Shifts TOI NJD FEB 6 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 23 15:26 CBJ JAN 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 21 16:49 SEA JAN 25 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 20 13:06 CHI JAN 24 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 5 20 16:13 EDM JAN 21 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0 1 18 16:16 I think the coaches deployment of the players contributes significantly in their success or failure at times. We have had the last couple of coaches who were dead set on their line ups and had their favorites. Tocchet looks to be a more outside of the box thinker and looks at the team as a whole as opposed to individualistic. Looking forward to seeing what he can get out of this group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R3aL Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just gonna say garland-Miller-podkolzin together looked pretty good. if garland builds on that or stays restively consistent and keeps taking pucks through neutral zone with speed he shouldn’t be hard to trade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coryberg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Don't look now but Garland has 6 points (2g 4a) and is a +3 in his last 6 games. Will be nice if Tocchet can keep him rolling, definitely looks like a much better player of late. I'm digging the podz Miller Garland Combo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 29 minutes ago, R3aL said: Just gonna say garland-Miller-podkolzin together looked pretty good. if garland builds on that or stays restively consistent and keeps taking pucks through neutral zone with speed he shouldn’t be hard to trade Miller and Podkolzin played really well together last year. Not sure why Bruce buried Podkolzin on the 3rd and 4th lines this year. He also called Garland a 3rd liner and didn't give him many opportunities either. Everyone wants to praise Bruce, but he had his flaws. Seems logical to play Miller with Podkolzin and adding Garland to that line allows Miller to not be the only play driver on that line. Garland has 5 points in 5 games under Tocchet. Not rocket science to figure out that Garland was not used properly under Boudreau. Garland went from being a buyout candidate to a top 6 forward who can score 60+ points in the span of two weeks. Crazy. No wonder our asset management has been horrible these past few years... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Vanderhoek Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said: Miller and Podkolzin played really well together last year. Not sure why Bruce buried Podkolzin on the 3rd and 4th lines this year. He also called Garland a 3rd liner and didn't give him many opportunities either. Everyone wants to praise Bruce, but he had his flaws. Seems logical to play Miller with Podkolzin and adding Garland to that line allows Miller to not be the only play driver on that line. Garland has 5 points in 5 games under Tocchet. Not rocket science to figure out that Garland was not used properly under Boudreau. Garland went from being a buyout candidate to a top 6 forward who can score 60+ points in the span of two weeks. Crazy. No wonder our asset management has been horrible these past few years... I thought the suggestion to buyout Garland was a move that would make no sense. He is earning under 5 million per and can play anywhere from lines 1 through 3. Has never been given a proper opportunity here and he's the kind of hardworking player Tocchet will keep around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 22 minutes ago, Mike Vanderhoek said: I thought the suggestion to buyout Garland was a move that would make no sense. He is earning under 5 million per and can play anywhere from lines 1 through 3. Has never been given a proper opportunity here and he's the kind of hardworking player Tocchet will keep around. If we can draft one of the 3 centres then we can move Miller to left wing and have a very potent 2nd line. Put Podkolzin up with Petey and Kuzy and move Mikheyev to a more defensive role on the 3rd line, get Raty going as our 3C, and all of a sudden we have a top 9 that can compete with anyone. Kuzmenko Pettersson Podkolzin Miller Fantilli Garland Beauvillier Raty Mikheyev I don't think you can ask for much better than that really. Just gotta get that 2nd overall pick. If we get the 1st overall then you have Bedard instead, which would be even more crazy. After that, we need to spend at least one more year fixing the defence. If there is one guy who is a buyout candidate, my money is on OEL. It would be painful, but I just can't see how we can move forward with him for another 4 years on the 2nd pairing. And you can't play him on your 3rd pairing as he takes up too much of the cap. I watched him tonight. It was painful. I mean he has trouble even skating backwards, never mind trying to defend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: After that, we need to spend at least one more year fixing the defence. If there is one guy who is a buyout candidate, my money is on OEL. It would be painful, but I just can't see how we can move forward with him for another 4 years on the 2nd pairing. And you can't play him on your 3rd pairing as he takes up too much of the cap. I watched him tonight. It was painful. I mean he has trouble even skating backwards, never mind trying to defend... Agreed on OEL..been saying this for a while now too. If Minny can buy out 8 figures, AAV( THREE yrs?), then we can handle a couple yrs of 4.7 mill. Edited February 9, 2023 by Nuxfanabroad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_Hawk Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 8 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: If we can draft one of the 3 centres then we can move Miller to left wing and have a very potent 2nd line. Put Podkolzin up with Petey and Kuzy and move Mikheyev to a more defensive role on the 3rd line, get Raty going as our 3C, and all of a sudden we have a top 9 that can compete with anyone. Kuzmenko Pettersson Podkolzin Miller Fantilli Garland Beauvillier Raty Mikheyev I don't think you can ask for much better than that really. Just gotta get that 2nd overall pick. If we get the 1st overall then you have Bedard instead, which would be even more crazy. After that, we need to spend at least one more year fixing the defence. If there is one guy who is a buyout candidate, my money is on OEL. It would be painful, but I just can't see how we can move forward with him for another 4 years on the 2nd pairing. And you can't play him on your 3rd pairing as he takes up too much of the cap. I watched him tonight. It was painful. I mean he has trouble even skating backwards, never mind trying to defend... I agree 100%, with two exceptions: - Beauvillier has shown absolutely nothing in the couple games he has played. The topper; its been with Pete and Kuz who have made AHL fodder look good this year. Hope I'm wrong, but he was the cap dump to fit Bo in with NYI. My guess is we'll just ride his contract out as a 3L/press box guy. - OEL is just plain tired at this point. Making any type of judgement on his fit past 2022/2023 would be a struggle right now. He is NOT a shutdown Dman nor is he 1st pairing minute muncher some expect him to be. Was it a good trade...no...is he worthy of 7.2m..no...is he a good dman when deployed properly..yes. A buy out is just asinine; at the very least, his value as a 3LD is better than the cap savings in my opinion. And the sooner we are rid of the whole contract the better. Though Bedard or Fantilli would be a dream, any of the top 5 prospects this year would be a game changer. If they weren't a center, we could simply revert to looking for the defensive #C we have always talked about; a Sutter type in his prime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_Hawk Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 8 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said: Agreed on OEL..been saying this for a while now too. If Minny can buy out 8 figures, AAV( THREE yrs?), then we can handle a couple yrs of 4.7 mill. I just don't get how locking in 4.8m in the two years we will want to be active in FA is the right move. 2023/24 is a building year; cap space really doesn't matter. And having $$ on the books until 2031 is crazy! And even in the 2.1m years, I am not sure you find a better Dman with a 5m cap hit with cap inflation. Once again, I am NOT stating OEL is a 7.2m guy nor our answer on D; he is just a good player that we are tied to for 4 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_Hawk Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 8 hours ago, Mike Vanderhoek said: I thought the suggestion to buyout Garland was a move that would make no sense. He is earning under 5 million per and can play anywhere from lines 1 through 3. Has never been given a proper opportunity here and he's the kind of hardworking player Tocchet will keep around. Garland is a great player, just lacks size. His effort and skills are through the roof. You see it when he gets deployed with a couple bigger good skating fwds (JT & Podz OR Mik & Pete). This team needs to focus on Boeser; he is the 6.65m mistake...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, BC_Hawk said: I agree 100%, with two exceptions: - Beauvillier has shown absolutely nothing in the couple games he has played. The topper; its been with Pete and Kuz who have made AHL fodder look good this year. Hope I'm wrong, but he was the cap dump to fit Bo in with NYI. My guess is we'll just ride his contract out as a 3L/press box guy. - OEL is just plain tired at this point. Making any type of judgement on his fit past 2022/2023 would be a struggle right now. He is NOT a shutdown Dman nor is he 1st pairing minute muncher some expect him to be. Was it a good trade...no...is he worthy of 7.2m..no...is he a good dman when deployed properly..yes. A buy out is just asinine; at the very least, his value as a 3LD is better than the cap savings in my opinion. And the sooner we are rid of the whole contract the better. Though Bedard or Fantilli would be a dream, any of the top 5 prospects this year would be a game changer. If they weren't a center, we could simply revert to looking for the defensive #C we have always talked about; a Sutter type in his prime. 1 hour ago, BC_Hawk said: I just don't get how locking in 4.8m in the two years we will want to be active in FA is the right move. 2023/24 is a building year; cap space really doesn't matter. And having $$ on the books until 2031 is crazy! And even in the 2.1m years, I am not sure you find a better Dman with a 5m cap hit with cap inflation. Once again, I am NOT stating OEL is a 7.2m guy nor our answer on D; he is just a good player that we are tied to for 4 years. I somewhat agree. I used to feel like you regarding OEL. He's virtually a 3-4m D man. So is there a point in buying him out or retaining for 4 years to only pay another guy 3-4m to do the same job? The ones thing I'm noticing lately howvwer is that even his strong trait (skating) isn't good anymore. He's lost like 2 steps and barely able to keep forwards to the outside. I can't believe how quickly they gain ground on him now. If he continues to lose his skating abilities, he may become unplayable... So far, I only see players skate faster but he hasn't gotten beat outside. When that starts happening, it's prob time to find a way to get rid of his contract. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_Hawk Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, CanucksJay said: I somewhat agree. I used to feel like you regarding OEL. He's virtually a 3-4m D man. So is there a point in buying him out or retaining for 4 years to only pay another guy 3-4m to do the same job? The ones thing I'm noticing lately howvwer is that even his strong trait (skating) isn't good anymore. He's lost like 2 steps and barely able to keep forwards to the outside. I can't believe how quickly they gain ground on him now. If he continues to lose his skating abilities, he may become unplayable... So far, I only see players skate faster but he hasn't gotten beat outside. When that starts happening, it's prob time to find a way to get rid of his contract. Agree....I'd bet a beer that he is actually playing injuried right now...like Ilya was. He just looks tired and immobile out there. I just cant see him lose his ability to skate that quick. Much like Hughes, he just played WAY TOO MUCH hockey early in the year, and has really had no time off to heel/recover other than All Star break. I'll give him the benfit of the doubt for 23/24, then have the discussion. I feel Myers is suffering from this too. Edited February 9, 2023 by BC_Hawk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canucks Curse Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 6 points in 6 games now, Tocchet likes him, he thrived in the Zone under Tbone last go around, so buy out not likely if he keeps this up, he looks more effective than Brock and with a better contract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canucks Curse Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 also Podzy looking good under Tbone Podzy just needs to keep it up, he looks like where he left off end off last year good two way guy, just needs to learn to play a bit quicker, he is getting there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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