(Article) If the Canucks MUST make the playoffs in 2023/24, what does ‘all in’ look like?

[RWJC]

If the Canucks MUST make the playoffs in 2023/24, what does ‘all in’ look like?

 

 

PHOTO CREDIT: © BOB FRID-USA TODAY SPORTS

 

By Stephan Roget

11 hours ago

 

The Mission Impossible franchise just debuted the seventh instalment in its film franchise with Dead Reckoning Part One.

The Mission Improbable series, however, will conclude with Episode IV, which could be titled Dead-Set on Reaching the Postseason. 

 

If you’re just joining us, in this series we’ve decided to take Elias Pettersson’s ominous wording and Elliotte Friedman’s interpretation of that wording as seriously as possible, and we’re operating from the premise that Pettersson — in one way or another — has communicated to GM Patrik Allvin and Co. that he won’t sign a long-term extension unless the Canucks make the playoffs in this upcoming season.

 

Now, this is the Vancouver Canucks we’re talking about, an organization that never needs much convincing to make a push toward postseason revenue. But the prospect of “make the playoffs or watch your franchise player walk” certainly gives that push some higher stakes than it’s had in recent memory.

 

We’ve looked at the teams the Canucks will need to leapfrog. We’ve peered at the teams they’ll need to fend off from the sides and below. We’ve guessed at how many extra points the Canucks themselves will be able to accumulate.

 

Now, it’s time to get away from all the numbers and get down to the spirit of the thing. What does the 2023/24 look like if the Canucks are all-in and going all-out to make the playoffs?

 

Or, put differently, what can the Canucks do to give themselves the very best chance of making an appearance in the 2024 postseason?

 

We’ve got some ideas to present (that shouldn’t necessarily be taken as recommendations.)

 

(Over)Play the stars, especially Demko

Well, we really didn’t expect this to be a popular article, so why not start with one of last year’s hottest controversies?

 

Some fans were frustrated to see core talent like Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, and Thatcher Demko “overplayed” down the stretch run in 2022/23, despite the Canucks being realistically out of the playoffs long before then.

 

But if they really want a shot at the 2024 postseason, that’s exactly what they need to do again this year.

 

The Canucks’ depth has improved, but they’re still a team that is reliant on its stars to win, and that means those stars do need to play as much as possible to give the Canucks their best shot each night. Every point is going to count in the chase for the playoffs, so there can be no nights off.

 

The player that this applies to the most is clearly Demko. Put bluntly, the Canucks’ chances are sunk without him, and the only real avenue they have to the postseason is to have Demko starting upward of 60 games and winning a better-than-decent chunk of them.

He’s either up to it or the season is a bust anyway.

 

Hang on to Tyler Myers (or find a replacement)

Within a week or so of this being published, Tyler Myers’ $5 million signing bonus will be paid, and he’ll be available to acquire at the low, low price of just $1 million in salary (but still a $6 million cap hit).

There are many who have waited all summer for this point, assuming that Myers would be traded the second he became a cheaper asset.

But if the playoffs are the goal, then keeping Myers is almost a must. The Canucks are still short on RHD, and even if one of Carson Soucy or Ian Cole joins Filip Hronek on that side, Myers still represents the next-best option on the depth chart — and as good an injury replacement as they could possibly find this late in the game.
 

Myers might not handle those 20+ minute deployments very well, but he can handle them, and that’s more than can be said about anyone lower than him on the depth chart. Reducing the capacity of the blueline is simply not an option, which means that Myers stays on.

(Or, alternatively, a suitable replacement must be found before Myers is traded. This is where a healthy Ethan Bear could enter the picture again.)

 

An all-veteran center rotation

Forward units both literally and figuratively revolve around their centers. Which is why, if they want to give themselves the best chance to win on a nightly basis, the Canucks should probably go with an all-veteran center rotation in 2023/24.

 

That means going Pettersson, JT Miller, Pius Suter, and Teddy Blueger, and probably in that order. Sorry, Nils Åman, but you’re on the outside looking in for now, unless you can come into Training Camp and straight-up steal a job from someone older.

 

Veteran centers are great at doing all the “little things” that add up to hockey victories: defensive coverage, faceoff wins, chippy stuff.

To make the playoffs, the Canucks need the consistent stability of their centerpieces far more than they need the upward potential of someone like Åman.

 

Employ some form of load management

“Load management” is still a controversial term in hockey circles. We’re probably never going to get to the point of the NBA, where star players are regularly healthy scratched just to keep them fresh and healthy, but perhaps there is a middle ground worth exploring.

We’ve already noted how much the Canucks are going to rely on their stars playing big minutes. Could they compensate for that with occasional nights off? Or at least nights of reduced minutes?
 

When Chicago rolls into town, should it be automatic to give Demko the night off and chop Hughes’ ice-time by five minutes?

Alternatively, and perhaps more popularly for players who loathe losing ice-time, perhaps the team could explore a reduced practice schedule for certain players, or something along those lines.

Or, the team could say “to heck with it,” because it’s making the playoffs that is the goal, not sticking around once they get there.

 

Pick a captain now

We’ve been talking captaincy all summer, and the general consensus amongst fans and media alike seems to be that the Canucks should not name a captain for the 2023/24 season.

 

But while most prefer to wait, that’s not exactly conducive to an “all-in” attempt at the playoffs. Teams do typically need leaders, and going all year without an official ‘C’ could represent both a distraction and a lack of focus, potentially to the team’s detriment.

 

Teams do make the playoffs frequently without a captain, but they are the exception to the rule. If the 2023/24 season is going to be a mad drag-race to the finish, it makes plenty of sense for someone to have their hands firmly on the wheel, whoever that might be.

 

Up the physicality (especially against Pacific rivals)

Believe it or not, the Canucks finished eighth in the league and first in the Pacific Division in 2022/23 with 2024 hits.

To give themselves the best chance of rising up the Pacific standings in 2023/24, that needs to both continue and intensify.

 

The Canucks aren’t the most physically-imposing roster, but they have added some bangers in Soucy and Cole, and some existing players, like Dakota Joshua, are probably capable of giving more on this front. Making up for the loss of Luke Schenn and Kyle Burroughs, isn’t easy, but it is doable by committee.

 

The Pacific Division has lost a lot of muscle over the last couple of offseasons. The opportunity is there for the Canucks to, if not physically dominate, at least make their physicality a factor on a night-in, night-out basis.

Doing so both ups their chances of reaching the playoffs and makes them more ready when those playoffs arrive.

 

Cut and demote players mercilessly 

If every point counts, the Canucks can’t abide any passengers in 2023/24. That starts with Training Camp, where competition should be fierce and anyone not up to snuff should be cut in favour of those who are. That’s regardless of age, status, or contract, too.

 

From then on out, the Canucks finally have enough depth to really lean on their hot hands. If someone in the bottom-six isn’t contributing much, it’s probably time to swap them out for someone on a roll down in Abbotsford.

 

If a veteran starts slumping, they’ll need to come out of the lineup for a while until they’re back up to speed.

The Canucks can’t afford to be as nice about who’s “on the team” anymore if the stakes are as high as we think they are.

 

Pay up to create cap wiggle room

Speaking of roster management, the Canucks are still tight up against the cap, and getting under it before opening night may prove tricky if Tanner Pearson really is as healthy as they say.

 

Some options include running with a roster of fewer than 23 players. But for a team that travels and incurs injuries as often as the Canucks do, this isn’t really workable.

 

What the Canucks need is some wiggle room, and the only way to get that is to pay up.

 

At this point, that probably looks like giving someone a draft pick or a prospect to take the returned Pearson off their hands.

Whatever the cost, such wiggle room would allow the Canucks to A) ice a full 23-person roster and call-up and demote players with abandon throughout the season. That’s the kind of flexibility they’re going to need to maximize their point-earning potential.

 

Acquire a better backup, or recall Arturs Silovs frequently

We’re not here to be cruel or callous, but Spencer Martin was the worst backup in the NHL last year, and it wasn’t even close.

Yes, Demko is going to play the lion’s share of the games in 2023/24, but the Canucks can’t look at all of their backup games as near-guaranteed losses and still expect to make the playoffs. Nor can they sit around and hope that Martin will magically rebound.

 

Perhaps using that aforementioned wiggle room, the Canucks need to acquire a better backup. There are seemingly plenty available on the market.

Or, alternatively, the Canucks need to use the close placement of Abbotsford to get Arturs Silovs up with the big club as often as possible, his development be damned. This could look like Silovs getting a lot of home appearances and Demko starting almost all the road games, but so be it. Whatever gives the team the best chance to win each night is the only way to go.

 

Keep Anthony Beauvillier as a self-rental

We can keep this one short and sweet.

Anthony Beauvillier is the Canucks’ most valuable expiring contract. For almost any team in the stage of development that the Canucks are in, the smart move would be to trade him at some point during the season for a futures-based return.
 

But not if the goal is making the playoffs. Under that context, it makes more sense to hang on to Beauvillier as a sort of “self-rental,” even if the team fully intends on letting him walk come the summer.

Any extra points he brings to the table in the meantime will have been worth it.

 

Trade that first round pick

Sorry about this.

But one thing we can probably guarantee is that the Canucks won’t be comfortably in a playoff spot by the Trade Deadline. If they’re in it, they’ll be in the thick of it, and that will lead to a desire to “buy” at the deadline, not sell.

 

The Canucks are already down their 2024 second rounder, and they only have a handful of quality prospects that they desperately need to hang onto. That means that their best trade chip is the 2024 first round pick, and if they’ve absolutely, positively gotta make the playoffs, then what else can they do but trade it?

 

The pick shouldn’t come cheap, and it should almost certainly be spent on a top-four defender. To say that such a move would prove controversial isn’t even a guess, as we already went through this with Hronek last year.

But if that’s what it takes, then that’s what it takes.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Pears]

45 minutes ago, RWJC said:

(Over)Play the stars, especially Demko

Well, we really didn’t expect this to be a popular article, so why not start with one of last year’s hottest controversies?

 

Some fans were frustrated to see core talent like Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, and Thatcher Demko “overplayed” down the stretch run in 2022/23, despite the Canucks being realistically out of the playoffs long before then.

 

But if they really want a shot at the 2024 postseason, that’s exactly what they need to do again this year.

 

The Canucks’ depth has improved, but they’re still a team that is reliant on its stars to win, and that means those stars do need to play as much as possible to give the Canucks their best shot each night. Every point is going to count in the chase for the playoffs, so there can be no nights off.

 

The player that this applies to the most is clearly Demko. Put bluntly, the Canucks’ chances are sunk without him, and the only real avenue they have to the postseason is to have Demko starting upward of 60 games and winning a better-than-decent chunk of them.

He’s either up to it or the season is a bust anyway.

 

 

 

45 minutes ago, RWJC said:

Employ some form of load management

“Load management” is still a controversial term in hockey circles. We’re probably never going to get to the point of the NBA, where star players are regularly healthy scratched just to keep them fresh and healthy, but perhaps there is a middle ground worth exploring.

We’ve already noted how much the Canucks are going to rely on their stars playing big minutes. Could they compensate for that with occasional nights off? Or at least nights of reduced minutes?
 

When Chicago rolls into town, should it be automatic to give Demko the night off and chop Hughes’ ice-time by five minutes?

Alternatively, and perhaps more popularly for players who loathe losing ice-time, perhaps the team could explore a reduced practice schedule for certain players, or something along those lines.

Or, the team could say “to heck with it,” because it’s making the playoffs that is the goal, not sticking around once they get there.

 

I agree with much of this article but these two paragraphs/situations kind of contradict each other don’t they? You can’t overplay your best players but at the same time put them on some kind of load management plan. 

[Gurn]

13 minutes ago, Pears said:

You can’t overplay your best players but at the same time put them on some kind of load management plan. 

You can, if your plan is to overload them. Which would be a bad plan, but it could happen.

[Ghostsof1915]

No to trading the first round pick.

Lekkerimaki if needed and there's a great deal to be had moving him. Otherwise no.

[Phil_314]

Would be great if we could trade Myers and Beauvillier with retention and get some slightly pricey big, physical guys to fill out the depth. 

Kuzmenko - Pettersson - Mikheyev
________ - Miller - Boeser
Garland - Suter - Podkolzin
Pearson - Blueger - Joshua (not massive but at least they'd offer some pushback and scoring ability) 

[ilduce39]

Roget from CA is becoming one of my favourite writers.  I don’t always (or even usually) agree with what *he* thinks but he’s able to churn out content like this, which honestly evaluates the other side of the coin. 
 

Not to say I love everything in this, “all in” course of action, but it’s honestly a lot of things we’ll likely see and it’s a fun to think where “too far” falls (trading the 1st for a rental down the stretch).

[JeremyCuddles]

Going all in is turning our blueline from 2 top 4 d-men to 3 top 4 d-men. Which is the sad part. But knowing ownership, they'd probably okay another OEL level trade if they were told it'd lead to playoffs. Even if it cost us another first rounder and decimated our cap going forward. Just the allure of playoff revenue is enough for ownership to okay moves that F over this team.

 

1st rounder, Pod/Hogs, and Myers/Beau/Garland for cap reasons and we can get a semi-decent D-man should one be on the market. That's pretty close to all in, given our cap constraints and lack of real tradeable assets. Or finding a true 2C is also something worth targeting if your goal is going all in. Garland/Beau for cap reasons, that 1st rounder and maybe Rathbone, Raty or Woo or the aforementioned Pod/Hogs depending on the other team's wants.

[iinatcc]

ALL In looks like CM PUNK!!!

 

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by iinatcc

[EddieVedder]

6 hours ago, Phil_314 said:

Would be great if we could trade Myers and Beauvillier with retention and get some slightly pricey big, physical guys to fill out the depth. 

Kuzmenko - Pettersson - Mikheyev
________ - Miller - Boeser
Garland - Suter - Podkolzin
Pearson - Blueger - Joshua (not massive but at least they'd offer some pushback and scoring ability) 

Aside from the top line, looks like one of the weakest lineups in the league. 

[-DLC-]

8 hours ago, Pears said:

 

I agree with much of this article but these two paragraphs/situations kind of contradict each other don’t they? You can’t overplay your best players but at the same time put them on some kind of load management plan. 

You give them nights off against teams that you're expected to beat. So play them heavily in games you need to then let them ease off for games you think you can manage without them. 

 

I think the article has some good ideas for sure. 

[HorvatToBaertschi]

1 hour ago, -DLC- said:

You give them nights off against teams that you're expected to beat. So play them heavily in games you need to then let them ease off for games you think you can manage without them. 

 

I think the article has some good ideas for sure. 

we've played well against strong teams and heavily struggled against the teams "we expect to beat" for years. Our team plays down to their opponents, so this wouldn't work. 

[-DLC-]

10 minutes ago, HorvatToBaertschi said:

we've played well against strong teams and heavily struggled against the teams "we expect to beat" for years. Our team plays down to their opponents, so this wouldn't work. 

Thought of that after I posted it....

 

Have to avoid getting lulled into losses because they expect to win. That thinking often backfires ("we should win this game"). 

 

Yep,  you're right.

[Ballisticsports.]

48 minutes ago, HorvatToBaertschi said:

we've played well against strong teams and heavily struggled against the teams "we expect to beat" for years. Our team plays down to their opponents, so this wouldn't work. 

Is that because our stars let up though?

Rest them more and have other's step up given the opportunity with more ice time and offensive zone starts against weaker teams and build team unity where everyone's contribution is rewarded

[HorvatToBaertschi]

9 minutes ago, Ballisticsports. said:

Is that because our stars let up though?

Rest them more and have other's step up given the opportunity with more ice time and offensive zone starts against weaker teams and build team unity where everyone's contribution is rewarded

It's because the entire team lets up, from what I've witnessed personally these last few years. It's a team identity. Honestly, Petey and Hughes might be the only ones trying in those games....

[EdgarM]

I don't know, there are a lot of assumptions in this article. For one, I don't think Alvin and Co. are going to give any one player the ability to dictate how they are going to plan a successful team and two, is there really pressure to make the playoffs, THIS YEAR?

Judging from how they have conducted themselves so far, they are not caving in to players demands(Horvat) nor have they band aided the line up by signing older players long term contracts. 

Their plan seems to be more of a longer term plan where there is the ability to succeed with a bigger window of opportunity.

I am seeing a bit of learnng from past mistakes and not repeating them, as the order of the day. Very refreshing to see.

I would be willing to forego instant success in order to hold on to a few more draft picks and build up the future while simutaniously building a wiining team the right way.

[EdgarM]

4 minutes ago, HorvatToBaertschi said:

It's because the entire team lets up, from what I've witnessed personally these last few years. It's a team identity. Honestly, Petey and Hughes might be the only ones trying in those games....

I think you are exactly right with this, when we got out of the plumber attitude where we worked hard and grinded out games, we got more talented and those talented players thought that they needed to apply less effort to the weaker teams. The problem is, that there is so much parity in the league that once you do this, it back fires on you. 

This goes with the lackluster play where we hit less, back checked less, checked with our stick instead of the body and skated away from scrums. 

It was very maddening to watch our beloved team get so far away from playing basic hockey and moving towards fancy plays which never had any success in the playoffs.

This newer group knows what it takes to win in the post season which has been long overdue and needed with this club.

[EddieVedder]

Whats our team identity?

And aside from a skilled first line i just see a mish mash of soft players thrown together that have never shown chemistry playing with one another. 

The team desperately needs a Burrows/kesler/bieksa unit to come up from the minors. 

 

[Devron]

All in. Gives me shivers 

[McBackup]

I love hearing "all in" on a team that hasn't legitimately made the playoffs in a decade. Inspires confidence. 

[EdgarM]

44 minutes ago, EddieVedder said:

Whats our team identity?

And aside from a skilled first line i just see a mish mash of soft players thrown together that have never shown chemistry playing with one another. 

The team desperately needs a Burrows/kesler/bieksa unit to come up from the minors. 

 

I think this will come once we get away from trying to be super skilled and build a team from the 1st line to the 4th and all the dcore lines with everyone having a role to play. 

Vegas does a great job of this and I don't think we will get there until we get rid of our said "Soft " players.