Korean peace?

[Hamhuis Hip Check]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/04/17/report-north-and-south-korea-set-announce-official-end-war/523804002/

Could the rival Koreas declare peace soon to their nearly 70-year confrontation? 

North and South Korea are reportedly set to announce an official end to the 1950-1953 Korean War that technically finished with a truce — and not a peace treaty, according to South Korea's daily newspaper Munhwa Ilbo.

The newspaper, citing an unnamed South Korean official, reports that lawmakers from North and South Korea are negotiating a joint statement that could focus on  a path to the end of the war.

The move comes ahead of next week's summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. 

Moon said Tuesday that the denuclearization of North Korea is the most pressing task facing the South and vowed to establish permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula, according to Yonhap news agency. 

"The complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is the most urgent task that lies before us and a task we must complete peacefully," Moon said while attending a Buddhist service. 

The April 27 summit between Moon and Kim is scheduled to take place in the border village of Panmunjom. That summit is expected to be followed by a historic meeting between Kim and President Trump — the first meeting between two sitting leaders of North Korea and the United States. 

 

 

 

This will be huge if it happens, i can only hope this can eventually lead to a better and more stable life for everyone in the area

[kingofsurrey]

Great news.

[Rob_Zepp]

5 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:

Great news.

Apparently the only thing that could now fracture this accord is a lack of fuel to power the economies.   They had planned to get it from Alberta but now who knows.   

 

 

(sorry, couldn't resist).....

[luckylager]

9 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Apparently the only thing that could now fracture this accord is a lack of fuel to power the economies.   They had planned to get it from Alberta but now who knows.   

 

 

(sorry, couldn't resist).....

Kim's adding "Solar" to his name as part of the accord.

 

Kim Jung-Solar-un

[Lancaster]

I wonder how much of this has to do with Xi's term being extended indefinitely.  

Kim Jr. and Xi are friendemies..... and now Kim can no longer just wait until the next Chinese leader to come around to play games with.  

If he wishes to stay in power, he'll need all the help he can get from the Chinese and if they say jump, he should be answering, "How high?"

 

As for Trump's role in all this?  Who really knows?  Perhaps his unpredictability in whether or not he'll attack may have convinced Kim that it's better to just declare peace.  If there's a peace treaty, it would look really bad for the US to preemptively attack.  

 

Alternatively, a peace treaty between them will probably mean the end of the UN (mostly US) presence in South Korea and the dismantling of United Nations Command and USFK.  Forcing the US to leave.... theoretically making it the prime time for North Korea to attack should they wish to continue with hostilities.  

[Rob_Zepp]

1 minute ago, luckylager said:

Kim's adding "Solar" to his name as part of the accord.

 

Kim Jung-Solar-un

Sounds better than his dating name - Kim Hung-Jung-Un

 

....or his bee-keeping name - Kim Stung-Jung-Un

 

....his musical career name - Kim Sung-Jung-Un

 

....or even this massive fertilizer business name - Kim-Dung-Jung-Un

[brownky]

6 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Sounds better than his dating name - Kim Hung-Jung-Un

 

....or his bee-keeping name - Kim Stung-Jung-Un

 

....his musical career name - Kim Sung-Jung-Un

 

....or even this massive fertilizer business name - Kim-Dung-Jung-Un

... or his ladder factory title, Kim-Rung-Jung-Un

 

... or his smoking campaign name Kim-Lung-Jung-Un

 

...Or what his dentist calls his brushing strategy Kim-Mung-Jung-Un

 

 

[Rob_Zepp]

3 minutes ago, brownky said:

... or his ladder factory title, Kim-Rung-Jung-Un

 

... or his smoking campaign name Kim-Lung-Jung-Un

 

...Or what his dentist calls his brushing strategy Kim-Mung-Jung-Un

 

 

Or if he ends up in prison and gets to be the "lady" of the duo, he can be Kim-Bung-Jung-Un......

[khay]

5 hours ago, Lancaster said:

I wonder how much of this has to do with Xi's term being extended indefinitely.  

Kim Jr. and Xi are friendemies..... and now Kim can no longer just wait until the next Chinese leader to come around to play games with.  

If he wishes to stay in power, he'll need all the help he can get from the Chinese and if they say jump, he should be answering, "How high?"

 

As for Trump's role in all this?  Who really knows?  Perhaps his unpredictability in whether or not he'll attack may have convinced Kim that it's better to just declare peace.  If there's a peace treaty, it would look really bad for the US to preemptively attack.  

 

Alternatively, a peace treaty between them will probably mean the end of the UN (mostly US) presence in South Korea and the dismantling of United Nations Command and USFK.  Forcing the US to leave.... theoretically making it the prime time for North Korea to attack should they wish to continue with hostilities.  

I think it's huge.

 

When he got elected I was like this is a big joke. This guy has biggest ego in the world. He's going to make life difficult for everyone.

 

But it turns out that to benefit himself, he is willing to sacrifice the benefits of his country. And these are the easiest people to negotiate with. You give them something, they will give something back, only trick is that you have to make him believe that he is getting a better return. I mean, peace in that region is a great news for Koreans but for US? They aren't going to be able to make billions or even trillions of dollars through weapon sales no more. That will decline over time. Good news for the world, bad news for greedy and power hungry US corporates and government officials.

 

If peace is indeed achieved, Trump will get a lot of credit for achieving peace in a region where there has been so much volatility in the last 70 years. No US president even Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, the latter being a Nobel peace prize winner have not been able to achieve. And Trump will use this fact to get more votes and go for re-election.

 

It's getting very interesting.

 

 

[Ryan Strome]

6 hours ago, Lancaster said:

I wonder how much of this has to do with Xi's term being extended indefinitely.  

Kim Jr. and Xi are friendemies..... and now Kim can no longer just wait until the next Chinese leader to come around to play games with.  

If he wishes to stay in power, he'll need all the help he can get from the Chinese and if they say jump, he should be answering, "How high?"

 

As for Trump's role in all this?  Who really knows?  Perhaps his unpredictability in whether or not he'll attack may have convinced Kim that it's better to just declare peace.  If there's a peace treaty, it would look really bad for the US to preemptively attack.  

 

Alternatively, a peace treaty between them will probably mean the end of the UN (mostly US) presence in South Korea and the dismantling of United Nations Command and USFK.  Forcing the US to leave.... theoretically making it the prime time for North Korea to attack should they wish to continue with hostilities.  

You don't actually believe the Americans will pull out of South Korea do you?

[thedestroyerofworlds]

56 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

You don't actually believe the Americans will pull out of South Korea do you?

When there are still a significant military presence in Germany and Japan, then staying in South Korea is a certainty.  That might change if American politicians decide that they need to cut military spending and close some/many of their foreign bases of which they have hundreds.

[MJDDawg]

This is unreal, but all moving too fast for my liking.

 

I'm more cynical about what's going here. Does anyone really think that Un is going to denuclearize, sign a peace treaty, unify the two Korea's then stand hand in hand with other world leaders singing Kumbaya?

 

I'm unsure what his end-game is here other than to have certain demands that he knows the USA wouldn't accept. He could then play the sympathy card with the international community to try and obtain breaks on sanctions. Much like the Iran deal, he probably figures he can get sanctions softened while still developing his nuclear programme.

 

Regardless, I hope this all turns out for the best.

[Tre Mac]

2 hours ago, Ryan Strome said:

You don't actually believe the Americans will pull out of South Korea do you?

By the time the Americans actually pull out it'll be too late, S. Korea will already be pregnant.

 

22 minutes ago, MJDDawg said:

I'm more cynical about what's going here. Does anyone really think that Un is going to denuclearize, sign a peace treaty, unify the two Korea's then stand hand in hand with other world leaders singing Kumbaya?

No I think they'll open with 'Micheal Row the Boat Ashore' followed by a 'Kumbaya/Twinkle Twinkle Little Star' medley.

[kloubek]

40 minutes ago, MJDDawg said:

I'm more cynical about what's going here.

Me too, but mainly because the North has been SO crazy and SO pushing their agenda that this is quite a shocking 180 reversal. That, and they've proven in the past that they don't abide by agreements unless they want to.

The other thing that I had considered about this is that if they kiss and make up, North Korea loses their obvious advantage in that if they were to be struck by the US, they have an easy and quick retaliation point in the South whereby they could level the South before the US could even mobilize fully.  This tells me that they are not so much in fear anymore of being attacked by the USA since they are so willing to give up this strategic advantage. 

That in turn tells me one of two things:
1) They really have done a 180 and are going to drop their nuclear program and try to make nice with the world, or 
2) They have a better deterrent than their ability to strike South Korea.  Ie: They already have nukes capable of reaching the USA.

[Tortorella's Rant]

Don't get your hopes too high. Dotard will ruin it with a stupid tweet, or something. 

[Ryan Strome]

2 hours ago, thedestroyerofworlds said:

When there are still a significant military presence in Germany and Japan, then staying in South Korea is a certainty.  That might change if American politicians decide that they need to cut military spending and close some/many of their foreign bases of which they have hundreds.

Exactly.

[Kragar]

5 hours ago, khay said:

I think it's huge.

 

When he got elected I was like this is a big joke. This guy has biggest ego in the world. He's going to make life difficult for everyone.

 

But it turns out that to benefit himself, he is willing to sacrifice the benefits of his country. And these are the easiest people to negotiate with. You give them something, they will give something back, only trick is that you have to make him believe that he is getting a better return. I mean, peace in that region is a great news for Koreans but for US? They aren't going to be able to make billions or even trillions of dollars through weapon sales no more. That will decline over time. Good news for the world, bad news for greedy and power hungry US corporates and government officials.

 

If peace is indeed achieved, Trump will get a lot of credit for achieving peace in a region where there has been so much volatility in the last 70 years. No US president even Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, the latter being a Nobel peace prize participation award winner have not been able to achieve. And Trump will use this fact to get more votes and go for re-election.

 

It's getting very interesting.

FTFY

 

Given his communication style, I'm surprised Trump is having much success with foreign affairs.  This would be a 'uuuge win for him.  It will be interesting to see if Kim can stick to any agreement though, given his family's version of manifest destiny.

[Warhippy]

5 hours ago, khay said:

I think it's huge.

 

When he got elected I was like this is a big joke. This guy has biggest ego in the world. He's going to make life difficult for everyone.

 

But it turns out that to benefit himself, he is willing to sacrifice the benefits of his country. And these are the easiest people to negotiate with. You give them something, they will give something back, only trick is that you have to make him believe that he is getting a better return. I mean, peace in that region is a great news for Koreans but for US? They aren't going to be able to make billions or even trillions of dollars through weapon sales no more. That will decline over time. Good news for the world, bad news for greedy and power hungry US corporates and government officials.

 

If peace is indeed achieved, Trump will get a lot of credit for achieving peace in a region where there has been so much volatility in the last 70 years. No US president even Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, the latter being a Nobel peace prize winner have not been able to achieve. And Trump will use this fact to get more votes and go for re-election.

 

It's getting very interesting.

 

 

He actually had very very little to do with it.  Like at all.  

 

Kim Jong met with Xi and a south korean delegation pre olympics.   After thatovertures of peace were made.  Post olympics there was a lot of back and forth on the "red phone" leading to this up to and including official visits to the "blue house" 

 

Trumps office sent Pompeo and by all measure he was a military delegate due to the fact that with peace the US is about to be kicked out of South Korea losing a HUGE power base in the South Pacific

 

In fact by and large the only word the US had in this was when South Korea called the US to let them know what they were doing while the US sat back and mumbled about nukes being the issue

 

So in all honesty it appears China and South Korea are/were the reasons behind peace.

 

Not Trump, no matter what twittler will try to force down people's throats

 

Pre Olympics

http://www.businessinsider.com/south-koreas-moon-tells-trump-hes-sending-diplomats-to-north-korea-2018-3

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/04/asia/koreas-seoul-delegation-pyongyang/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/18/world/asia/north-korea-south-treaty.html

 

Recent Announcements

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/18/world/asia/north-korea-south-treaty.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/04/17/report-north-and-south-korea-set-announce-official-end-war/523804002/

https://globalnews.ca/news/4149454/north-korea-south-korea-discussing-announce-end-of-war-summit-reports/

 

Now, let's ask the question nobody seems to want to.  With almost 30,000 troops stationed in South Korea along the DMZ and South Korea being the YUGE arms purchaser it has been, as well as South Korea's strategic benefit to America for checking Chinese expansions and aggression.

 

Do you honestly think that the US will simply allow this to happen while being told to leave?  My money is on them setting up shop in Taiwan 

 

 

 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

For those "History Experts", I know about MacArthur but was it feasible for the UN forces to stop just short of the Yalu river (so that China wouldn't enter the "police action")?  That would've left the North with not alot of territory to speak of (assuming some sort of worked out "peace agreement" could then be worked out).

[Ronaldoescobar]

I have to agree that Trump was a factor in the two sides getting together at least if you believe the South Koreans and Japanese which really have no reason to lie specially for Trump. For all his faults and bizarre actions you have to give him a bit of credit for this one.