HomeBrew Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 23 hours ago, peaches5 said: The value of the trade at the time of the trade does not change over time. It does, it really does... When it's a player for a player, or a player for known picks, no. But, we are talking about a changing variable here. The value changes depending on where we end up in the standings. I don't know what it is that is preventing you from understanding that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe-max Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, HomeBrew said: It does, it really does... When it's a player for a player, or a player for known picks, no. But, we are talking about a changing variable here. The value changes depending on where we end up in the standings. I don't know what it is that is preventing you from understanding that. The funny thing is how the evaluation will never end. Currently the majority calls it a win for Van, Canucks make the playoffs, TB gets the Canucks 16th pick. Next season Miller misses the entire year due to surgery, Canucks miss playoffs, TB drafts a player that jumps directly into the league and rocks it, people call it the worst trade ever and call for JB'S head. The following year JT plays again, Canucks make the playoffs, win a round or two, suddenly it's a win again. This will never stop. In 10 years people will still talk themselves blue in the face, trying to judge whether the pieces that Miller eventually turned into are worth more or less at any moment in time than what Tampa received. It happened after the Linden trade, it is still happening in the Gudbranson thread. It will outlive all of us. It is fun, people love doing it, so why not? Then again, if you only analyse a trade relative to the moment it was made, the number of factors and variables is limited and therefore the discussion finite. How about that?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghostsof1915 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timbermen Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Canucks won this trade from day one, who cares about hindsight. The people hoping it doesn't work out are trying to save face for being wrong. You've already proved you don't know your earhole from your ar#$hole when it comes to hockey trades but carry on. Go JTM !! Go JB !! Go Canucks !! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghostsof1915 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 (edited) So if you can't measure value, then trading Schieds for a first which lead to Horvat, meant that was an even trade then right? Edited January 28, 2020 by Ghostsof1915 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chronic.Canuck Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 We got a 1st line power forward winger for Petey who can win faceoffs. That's a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Chronic.Canucks.Fan said: We got a 1st line power forward winger for Petey who can win faceoffs. That's a win. Petterson is seemingly flanked by power forwards these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, PhillipBlunt said: Petterson is seemingly flanked by power forwards these days. yep, thats the experiment. He's going to need that beside him in the playoffs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timbermen Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said: So if you can't measure value, then trading Schieds for a first which lead to Horvat, meant that was an even trade then right? Also we must have lost the Naslund for Stojavich trade because we gave up a high first rounder for a low one. All that matters is the value at the time of the trade, that way you can never be wrong no matter how it plays out, weird logic. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chronic.Canuck Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said: yep, thats the experiment. He's going to need that beside him in the playoffs. That's fine with me. Eventually I'm sure we'll see Boeser back on Horvat's wing before the playoffs, especially if Virtanen keeps it up. Miller - Pettersson - Virtanen Pearson - Horvat - Boeser Looks more than okay to me. Maybe Loui can be the guy that gives the puck to Gaudette and heads to the net for the rebounds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post -DLC- Posted January 29, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 29, 2020 There's a segment on right now about how JT's been a huge mentor to Jake. That Jake really is like a sponge around JT and tends to listen to him - and we all know how Jake's been improving. JT says Jake reminds him of himself and the things he's gone through. There are so many things that you can't really "measure" when a trade is made...value isn't something that's only gauged on what you give up...it's what you get. And no one knew we'd be getting all this. So the argument that you can't base future deals on this one? Why not? It sends the message that sometimes the gambles pay off and that's why teams MAKE trades. Nothing is exactly as you'd expect it to be on paper. There is no real way to evaluate a trade without moving beyond it to see how it pans out. We're certainly not a loser in this. The only point being proven in this is that many who wanted JB and TG gone were wrong. Patience is a virtue. 3 4 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 38 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said: There's a segment on right now about how JT's been a huge mentor to Jake. That Jake really is like a sponge around JT and tends to listen to him - and we all know how Jake's been improving. JT says Jake reminds him of himself and the things he's gone through. So there are so many things that you can't "measure" when a trade is made...value isn't something that's only based in what you give up...it's what you get. And no one knew we'd be getting all this. So the argument that you can't "base" future deals on this one? Why not? It sends the message that sometimes the gambles pay off and that's why teams MAKE trades. Nothing is exactly as you'd expect it to be on paper. There is no real way to evaluate a trade without moving beyond it to see how it pans out. We're certainly not a loser in this. The only point being proven in this is that many who wanted JB and TG gone were wrong. Patience is a virtue. Interesting that Miller feels Virtanen reminds hiim of himself. We discussed their trajectories in the Jake hate thread.... On 1/18/2020 at 10:31 AM, oldnews said: This is an interesting point, one I don't see an honest, realistic response to - rather an evasion. Miller at age 21 10 goals, 13 assists, 23 pts, 20 at event strength, 58 games played, 52.3% ozone starts, 12:42 ice time. Virtanen at age 21 10 goals, 10 assists, all 20 at even strength, 75 games played, 44.8% ozone starts, 11:59 ice time. It's actually a pretty interesting comparison. Miller played with Hayes and Hagelin, a pair of guys that had 45 and 35 pts respectively - with higher ozone/different situational usage than Virtanen, so I think it's an interesting trade off between the extra 17 games Virtanen played, and the situational advantage Miller had. Miller at 22 22 goals, 21 assists, 82 games, 15:02 ice time, 57.8% ozone starts, playing with Stepan and Zuccarello. Those two lead the Rangers in scoring (61 and 58 pts) on a team that was well coached (AV) and had 101 pts Jake at 22 15 goals, 10 assists, 70 games, 14:49 ice time, 45.4% ozone starts, playing primarily with Sutter and Roussel (who were both injured for long stretches), on a team that struggled to maintain .500 hockey (81 pts on the season). Miller understandably had the better at-22-yrs-of-age season, but the performed in a significantly different context. My caution would be to avoid underestimating players like this prematurely. ie Neiderreiter - who was dealt at age 20, after 64 NHL games in which he scored 2 goals and 1 assist. Those numbers climbed to comparable to Miller's at 21, 22 - and then he continued to uptick to a 57 pt player at age 24. Worth asking what kind of "mean" had been set by age 22....but in any event, an interesting comparison you suggest in looking at MIller and Virtanen. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post The_Rocket Posted January 29, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 29, 2020 Not sure if this was posted back in the previous 200 pages on this thread, but though this would be good for a laugh... a popular Instagram page with 250,000 followers named NHL.discussion ranked GMJB 29th in the league in their pre-season rankings based mostly on the idea that the miller trade was the worst one he’s ever made. THE WORST ONE HES EVER MADE! just hilarious to think about how wrong people were about this trade when it happened 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gerry35 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 27 minutes ago, The_Rocket said: Not sure if this was posted back in the previous 200 pages on this thread, but though this would be good for a laugh... a popular Instagram page with 250,000 followers named NHL.discussion ranked GMJB 29th in the league in their pre-season rankings based mostly on the idea that the miller trade was the worst one he’s ever made. THE WORST ONE HES EVER MADE! just hilarious to think about how wrong people were about this trade when it happened Just shows how many people are stupid, all fuelled by the "sports media" and guys like JD Burke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, The_Rocket said: Not sure if this was posted back in the previous 200 pages on this thread, but though this would be good for a laugh... a popular Instagram page with 250,000 followers named NHL.discussion ranked GMJB 29th in the league in their pre-season rankings based mostly on the idea that the miller trade was the worst one he’s ever made. THE WORST ONE HES EVER MADE! just hilarious to think about how wrong people were about this trade when it happened Priceless. Question: is that a loyalist of a rival team with an (understandable) axe to grind - ie. trash talk - all in good fun? Or - funny thing - is that one of Vancouver's own? ala canucksmarmy / the JD Burke's of this media market? If it's the former, my response would be: #30 Kyle Dubas Worst contract: Patrick Marleau Worst picks: Yes. Worst Trade: 1st round pick, Patrick Marleau for Dubas' lunch. re: picks 2019 Entry NHL Totals Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2019 Entry 53 2 Nick Robertson L Peterborough Petes [OHL] 2019 Entry 84 3 Mikko Kokkonen D Jukurit Mikkeli [SM-liiga] 2019 Entry 115 4 Mikhail Abramov C Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL] 2019 Entry 124 4 Nick Abruzzese C Chicago Steel [USHL] 2019 Entry 146 5 Michael Koster D Chaska [Minn. H.S.] 2019 Entry 204 7 Kalle Loponen D Karpat [Finland Jrs.] 2018 Entry Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2018 Entry 29 1 Rasmus Sandin D Soo Greyhounds [OHL] 10 1 5 6 4 2018 Entry 52 2 Sean Durzi D Owen Sound Attack [OHL] 2018 Entry 76 3 Semyon Der-Arguchintsev C Peterborough Petes [OHL] 2018 Entry 83 3 Riley Stotts C Calgary Hitmen [WHL] 2018 Entry 118 4 Mac Hollowell D Soo Greyhounds [OHL] 2018 Entry 149 5 Filip Kral D Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 2018 Entry 156 6 Pontus Holmberg L Vasteras (Sweden-3) 2018 Entry 209 7 Zachary Bouthillier G Chicoutimi Sagueneens [QMJHL] 2018 Entry 211 7 Semyon Kizimov R Togliatti-2 (Russia Jrs.) 2017 Entry Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2017 Entry 17 1 Timothy Liljegren D Rogle BK Angelholm [SweHL] 1 0 0 0 0 2017 Entry 59 2 Eemeli Rasanen D Kingston Frontenacs [OHL] 2017 Entry 110 4 Ian Scott G Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] 2017 Entry 124 4 Vladislav Kara L Kazan [Russia-Jrs] 2017 Entry 141 5 Fedor Gordeev D Flint Firebirds [OHL] 2017 Entry 172 6 Ryan McGregor C Sarnia Sting [OHL] 2017 Entry 203 7 Ryan O'Connell D St. Andrews [Ont. H.S.] 2016 Entry Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2016 Entry 1 1 Auston Matthews C Zurich SC [Swiss-A] 262 146 117 263 44 2016 Entry 31 2 Egor Korshkov L Yaroslavl Lokomotiv [KHL] 2016 Entry 57 2 Carl Grundstrom R MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SweHL] 24 5 5 10 10 2016 Entry 62 3 Joseph Woll G U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 2016 Entry 72 3 J.D. Greenway D U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 2016 Entry 92 4 Adam Brooks C Regina Pats [WHL] 7 0 3 3 0 2016 Entry 101 4 Keaton Middleton D Saginaw Spirit [OHL] 2016 Entry 122 5 Vladimir Bobylev L Victoria Royals [WHL] 2016 Entry 152 6 Jack Walker L Victoria Royals [WHL] 2016 Entry 179 6 Nicolas Mattinen D London Knights [OHL] 2016 Entry 182 7 Nikolai Chebykin L MVD Jrs (Russia) 2015 Entry Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2015 Entry 4 1 Mitch Marner R London Knights [OHL] 280 80 192 272 96 2015 Entry 34 2 Travis Dermott D Erie Otters [OHL] 138 9 29 38 57 2015 Entry 61 2 Jeremy Bracco R U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 2015 Entry 65 3 Andrew Nielsen D Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL] 2015 Entry 68 3 Martins Dzierkals R Riga Jrs. (Russia) 2015 Entry 95 4 Jesper Lindgren D MODO Jrs. (Sweden) 2015 Entry 125 5 Dmytro Timashov L Quebec Remparts [QMJHL] 33 4 5 9 12 2015 Entry 155 6 Stephen Desrocher D Oshawa Generals [OHL] 2015 Entry 185 7 Nikita Korostelev R Sarnia Sting [OHL] 2014 Entry Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2014 Entry 8 1 William Nylander R MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SweHL] 289 78 129 207 70 2014 Entry 68 3 Rinat Valiev D Kootenay Ice [WHL] 12 0 0 0 2 2014 Entry 103 4 J.J. Piccinich R Youngstown Phantoms [USHL] 2014 Entry 128 5 Dakota Joshua F Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL] 2014 Entry 158 6 Nolan Vesey F South Shore Kings [USPHL-Pr] 2014 Entry 188 7 Pierre Engvall L Frolunda (Sweden Jrs.) 28 7 7 14 6 Not sure a rival lottery champion - Edmonton's - drafting record would look any better.... On the other hand, if that's from one of Vancouver's 'own': Edited January 29, 2020 by oldnews 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rekker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 31 minutes ago, oldnews said: Priceless. Question: is that a loyalist of a rival team with an (understandable) axe to grind - ie. trash talk - all in good fun? Or - funny thing - is that one of Vancouver's own? ala canucksmarmy / the JD Burke's of this media market? If it's the former, my response would be: #30 Kyle Dubas Worst contract: Patrick Marleau Worst picks: Yes. Worst Trade: 1st round pick, Patrick Marleau for Dubas' lunch. re: picks 2019 Entry NHL Totals Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2019 Entry 53 2 Nick Robertson L Peterborough Petes [OHL] 2019 Entry 84 3 Mikko Kokkonen D Jukurit Mikkeli [SM-liiga] 2019 Entry 115 4 Mikhail Abramov C Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL] 2019 Entry 124 4 Nick Abruzzese C Chicago Steel [USHL] 2019 Entry 146 5 Michael Koster D Chaska [Minn. H.S.] 2019 Entry 204 7 Kalle Loponen D Karpat [Finland Jrs.] 2018 Entry Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2018 Entry 29 1 Rasmus Sandin D Soo Greyhounds [OHL] 10 1 5 6 4 2018 Entry 52 2 Sean Durzi D Owen Sound Attack [OHL] 2018 Entry 76 3 Semyon Der-Arguchintsev C Peterborough Petes [OHL] 2018 Entry 83 3 Riley Stotts C Calgary Hitmen [WHL] 2018 Entry 118 4 Mac Hollowell D Soo Greyhounds [OHL] 2018 Entry 149 5 Filip Kral D Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 2018 Entry 156 6 Pontus Holmberg L Vasteras (Sweden-3) 2018 Entry 209 7 Zachary Bouthillier G Chicoutimi Sagueneens [QMJHL] 2018 Entry 211 7 Semyon Kizimov R Togliatti-2 (Russia Jrs.) 2017 Entry Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2017 Entry 17 1 Timothy Liljegren D Rogle BK Angelholm [SweHL] 1 0 0 0 0 2017 Entry 59 2 Eemeli Rasanen D Kingston Frontenacs [OHL] 2017 Entry 110 4 Ian Scott G Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] 2017 Entry 124 4 Vladislav Kara L Kazan [Russia-Jrs] 2017 Entry 141 5 Fedor Gordeev D Flint Firebirds [OHL] 2017 Entry 172 6 Ryan McGregor C Sarnia Sting [OHL] 2017 Entry 203 7 Ryan O'Connell D St. Andrews [Ont. H.S.] 2016 Entry Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2016 Entry 1 1 Auston Matthews C Zurich SC [Swiss-A] 262 146 117 263 44 2016 Entry 31 2 Egor Korshkov L Yaroslavl Lokomotiv [KHL] 2016 Entry 57 2 Carl Grundstrom R MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SweHL] 24 5 5 10 10 2016 Entry 62 3 Joseph Woll G U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 2016 Entry 72 3 J.D. Greenway D U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 2016 Entry 92 4 Adam Brooks C Regina Pats [WHL] 7 0 3 3 0 2016 Entry 101 4 Keaton Middleton D Saginaw Spirit [OHL] 2016 Entry 122 5 Vladimir Bobylev L Victoria Royals [WHL] 2016 Entry 152 6 Jack Walker L Victoria Royals [WHL] 2016 Entry 179 6 Nicolas Mattinen D London Knights [OHL] 2016 Entry 182 7 Nikolai Chebykin L MVD Jrs (Russia) 2015 Entry Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2015 Entry 4 1 Mitch Marner R London Knights [OHL] 280 80 192 272 96 2015 Entry 34 2 Travis Dermott D Erie Otters [OHL] 138 9 29 38 57 2015 Entry 61 2 Jeremy Bracco R U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 2015 Entry 65 3 Andrew Nielsen D Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL] 2015 Entry 68 3 Martins Dzierkals R Riga Jrs. (Russia) 2015 Entry 95 4 Jesper Lindgren D MODO Jrs. (Sweden) 2015 Entry 125 5 Dmytro Timashov L Quebec Remparts [QMJHL] 33 4 5 9 12 2015 Entry 155 6 Stephen Desrocher D Oshawa Generals [OHL] 2015 Entry 185 7 Nikita Korostelev R Sarnia Sting [OHL] 2014 Entry Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM 2014 Entry 8 1 William Nylander R MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SweHL] 289 78 129 207 70 2014 Entry 68 3 Rinat Valiev D Kootenay Ice [WHL] 12 0 0 0 2 2014 Entry 103 4 J.J. Piccinich R Youngstown Phantoms [USHL] 2014 Entry 128 5 Dakota Joshua F Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL] 2014 Entry 158 6 Nolan Vesey F South Shore Kings [USPHL-Pr] 2014 Entry 188 7 Pierre Engvall L Frolunda (Sweden Jrs.) 28 7 7 14 6 On the other hand, if that's from one of Vancouver's 'own': Also, Dubas trades their best trade chip in Kadri for a one year, redundant, rental Dman and another player in Kerfoot that isn't difficult to find in free agency. Dubas has to be one of the most overrated GM's out there. How's the backup goalie search going Dubas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, rekker said: Also, Dubas trades their best trade chip in Kadri for a one year, redundant, rental Dman and another player in Kerfoot that isn't difficult to find in free agency. Dubas has to be one of the most overrated GM's out there. How's the backup goalie search going Dubas? 3 of his top 4 D are also expiring - and none of them are RFAs - none of them - while with the retention on Barrie, he and Muzzin combined carry a 6.75 million cap hit - not exactly a winfall of cap opening up to replace 40+ minutes of ice time/game, and additionally another 20+ minutes (Ceci also expiring). They're going to need to replace over 63 minutes of top 4 ice time, and they have 10.75 million expiring (and little elsewhere). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, oldnews said: 3 of his top 4 D are also expiring - and none of them are RFAs - none of them - while with the retention on Barrie, he and Muzzin combined carry a 6.75 million cap hit - not exactly a winfall of cap opening up to replace 40+ minutes of ice time/game, and additionally another 20+ minutes (Ceci also expiring). They're going to need to replace over 63 minutes of top 4 ice time, and they have 10.75 million expiring (and little elsewhere). Looks like the Leaf’s window is closed after this season. Or does it stay open while they have Matthews? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Alflives said: Looks like the Leaf’s window is closed after this season. Or does it stay open while they have Matthews? I don't know about "closed" - but I'm not sure it gets any easier, or better, for them. They might need a better conversion rate on those picks / more uptick from their non-lottery picks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rekker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Alflives said: Looks like the Leaf’s window is closed after this season. Or does it stay open while they have Matthews? It's never mentioned by the Leaf Blower media that AM is only on contract for four more years after this one. He will be Arizona bound. That's their window, and it look very tinted. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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