Jake Virtanen | #18 | RW

[Ballisticsports.]

JV at 1.5 is better than LE at 6

 

Just wish a lot more of our players not on the top lines weren't eating up the teams cap space

[dpn1]

I really enjoyed the After Hours interview that Jake did.  Its always to learn more about individual Players.  The Donation at the CAN Fishing tourney was gracious to say the least.

[MeanSeanBean]

On 12/23/2019 at 6:27 PM, canucklehead44 said:

Virtanen has increased his goal totals by 50% each season
2015-2016: 7 goals 
2017-2018: 10 goals

2018-2019: 15 goals
2019-2020: 22 goal pace

Maybe he hits 33 next season? I would probably put that at his cap haha. 

The numbers say he should get 31 if he continues his exact current point trajectory

[wloutet]

Interesting problem. I was just working last week with tutoring a Foundations of Math 12 student in "lines, or curves, of best fit" and interpolating and extrapolating the results.  If I use this data of (2016, 7), (2018, 10), (2019, 15) and (2020, 22), I get a line of best with an exponential equation of

y= 0.0689716157 (1.328648205)^x.   I know using all those decimals seems ridiculous, but when you round off it really affects the curve.  Anyway, interpolating, I got a value of 8.6 goals for the year 2016-2017. Extrapolating I get 20.27 goals for 2019-2020, 26.93 goals for 2020-2021 and 35.78 goals for 2021-2022.  After that it gets silly.

[Kanukfanatic]

1 hour ago, wloutet said:

Interesting problem. I was just working last week with tutoring a Foundations of Math 12 student in "lines, or curves, of best fit" and interpolating and extrapolating the results.  If I use this data of (2016, 7), (2018, 10), (2019, 15) and (2020, 22), I get a line of best with an exponential equation of

y= 0.0689716157 (1.328648205)^x.   I know using all those decimals seems ridiculous, but when you round off it really affects the curve.  Anyway, interpolating, I got a value of 8.6 goals for the year 2016-2017. Extrapolating I get 20.27 goals for 2019-2020, 26.93 goals for 2020-2021 and 35.78 goals for 2021-2022.  After that it gets silly.

Little early to hit the sauce that hard!

 

[Crabcakes]

1 hour ago, wloutet said:

Interesting problem. I was just working last week with tutoring a Foundations of Math 12 student in "lines, or curves, of best fit" and interpolating and extrapolating the results.  If I use this data of (2016, 7), (2018, 10), (2019, 15) and (2020, 22), I get a line of best with an exponential equation of

y= 0.0689716157 (1.328648205)^x.   I know using all those decimals seems ridiculous, but when you round off it really affects the curve.  Anyway, interpolating, I got a value of 8.6 goals for the year 2016-2017. Extrapolating I get 20.27 goals for 2019-2020, 26.93 goals for 2020-2021 and 35.78 goals for 2021-2022.  After that it gets silly.

Forecasting is very hard to do for very long into the future though.  I can see 20 this year and 26 the year after but even 2020-21 is a shot in the dark.   Nobody progresses in a tidy linear or even non-linear fashion. 

 

I chart my golf scores and as long as the big trend is towards improvement I'm happy.  I have no illusions to be on tour in 10 years though 

[wloutet]

Oh, I totally agree. Hockey goal trends actually look more like a :   y = - cos(x)  curve from 0 to 180 degrees!!

[kloubek]

While I didn't see the Virtanen I wanted to earlier in the season, he really seems to he consistently bringing his game over the last few weeks. 

 

As long as he plays like this, I am happy enough. He needs to play big and pitch in with scoring. He is doing that. While I hope he continues to progress (and very well may), I personally believe we are largely seeing the best we can expect from him right now.

 

If he hits the ground running next season there should be an improvement, but if I am right I hope fans will he satisfied with what we have seen lately. He just isn't going to he that top power forward.

 

With that said, I feel he has an opportunity to really help a playoff series or two if we make it this season. Guys like him can he difference makers.

 

So.... a difference maker at maybe 50 points per season? Good enough - given the draft position?

 

I think so. Hardly the bust many have been claiming.

[-AJ-]

1 hour ago, kloubek said:

While I didn't see the Virtanen I wanted to earlier in the season, he really seems to he consistently bringing his game over the last few weeks. 

 

As long as he plays like this, I am happy enough. He needs to play big and pitch in with scoring. He is doing that. While I hope he continues to progress (and very well may), I personally believe we are largely seeing the best we can expect from him right now.

 

If he hits the ground running next season there should be an improvement, but if I am right I hope fans will he satisfied with what we have seen lately. He just isn't going to he that top power forward.

 

With that said, I feel he has an opportunity to really help a playoff series or two if we make it this season. Guys like him can he difference makers.

 

So.... a difference maker at maybe 50 points per season? Good enough - given the draft position?

 

I think so. Hardly the bust many have been claiming.

I think a factor in the bust claims are also relatively unrealistic expectations at #6. As high as the pick is, you're still not really guaranteed a star at that position. A 50-60 point forward is probably about par for #6. 

 

Regardless, I don't really care about what happened 5 years ago. Just happy that he's continually improving (even if it's taken a long time).

[WeneedLumme]

23 hours ago, wloutet said:

Interesting problem. I was just working last week with tutoring a Foundations of Math 12 student in "lines, or curves, of best fit" and interpolating and extrapolating the results.  If I use this data of (2016, 7), (2018, 10), (2019, 15) and (2020, 22), I get a line of best with an exponential equation of

y= 0.0689716157 (1.328648205)^x.   I know using all those decimals seems ridiculous, but when you round off it really affects the curve.  Anyway, interpolating, I got a value of 8.6 goals for the year 2016-2017. Extrapolating I get 20.27 goals for 2019-2020, 26.93 goals for 2020-2021 and 35.78 goals for 2021-2022.  After that it gets silly.

Thanks for your work. While you do have way more significant figures than your data justifies, it doesn't matter. Your extrapolations look fine to me, at least for this season and next. Although trying to predict 21-22 is a bit ambitious, until evidence comes in to disprove your forecasts, I will be happy to go along with them.

[WeneedLumme]

7 hours ago, -AJ- said:

I think a factor in the bust claims are also relatively unrealistic expectations at #6. As high as the pick is, you're still not really guaranteed a star at that position. A 50-60 point forward is probably about par for #6. 

 

Regardless, I don't really care about what happened 5 years ago. Just happy that he's continually improving (even if it's taken a long time).

Absolutely. Many of those who claim Jake is a bust are basing that on the delusion that a pick in that range should be a guaranteed instant star. They would be the same people who grossly overvalue draft picks/lottery tickets, feeling that lottery tickets should be the core of retirement savings plans, ignoring the concepts of expected value and sunk costs.

[canucklehead44]

39 forwards drafted #6th overall

Average career games played: 489 ( If you remove all the picks who haven't reached that average it is about 560).
Goals: 122
Assists: 178
Points: 301

So the "average" season for a 6th overall pick is 20 goals 30 assists 50 points (in 82 games). 

That is over a career. So let's pull some simple numbers. Let's say Jake goes 820 games, 200 goals, 300 assists, 500 points. 

So over the next 572 games he would need 158 goals, 263 assists, 421 points. 

To hit the point totals he would need to average a 60 point per season pace. Probably not possible. However, on the goals side it would be an average of 23 goals per year 82 game season. I think he can get within the ballpark. 

In my eyes his best comparable is Michael Grabner with better hitting ability. If he ended up with comparable career numbers as Grabner would you be satisfied with the pick? Grabner has averaged 23 goals 13 assists per 82 games.

Edited December 27, 2019 by canucklehead44

[higgyfan]

45 minutes ago, canucklehead44 said:

39 forwards drafted #6th overall

Average career games played: 489 ( If you remove all the picks who haven't reached that average it is about 560).
Goals: 122
Assists: 178
Points: 301

So the "average" season for a 6th overall pick is 20 goals 30 assists 50 points (in 82 games). 

That is over a career. So let's pull some simple numbers. Let's say Jake goes 820 games, 200 goals, 300 assists, 500 points. 

So over the next 572 games he would need 158 goals, 263 assists, 421 points. 

To hit the point totals he would need to average a 60 point per season pace. Probably not possible. However, on the goals side it would be an average of 23 goals per year 82 game season. I think he can get within the ballpark. 

In my eyes his best comparable is Michael Grabner with better hitting ability. If he ended up with comparable career numbers as Grabner would you be satisfied with the pick? Grabner has averaged 23 goals 13 assists per 82 games.

Grabs has had a 52pt and 40pt season over 10yrs.  The rest of the seasons were unimpressive.  In three of those 10 seasons, he had 34, 27 & 25goals.  Again, the remainder were unimpressive.

 

If we're just looking at stats, no I wouldn't be happy with Jake's offensive game similar to Grabs. 

[Elias Pettersson]

Virtanen has 20 points so far this year.  The 2 guys he will always be compared to are Nylander and Ehlers.  They both have 28 points.  However, they also both average around 5 minutes per game more in ice time and play regular minutes in the top 6.  If Virtanen was playing 17 minutes a night with BO or Petey he might also have 28 points, we will never know. 

 

But the biggest difference is that Jake plays a physical game unlike the other two, which is much needed as we don't have a lot of physical forwards.  So you need to take that into consideration.  He may never get the same amount of points as Ehlers or Nylander but if he is a 20 goal guy on the 3rd line playing a power forward game then I am happy we have Jake.  And being a local boy may help with marketing in the future if he can play consistently at this level.  And best of all his overall game translates better in a tough 7 game playoff series than an Ehlers or a Nylander, so that could be the deciding factor when we get to see Jake in the playoffs.

[Kanukfanatic]

25 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Virtanen has 20 points so far this year.  The 2 guys he will always be compared to are Nylander and Ehlers.  They both have 28 points.  However, they also both average around 5 minutes per game more in ice time and play regular minutes in the top 6.  If Virtanen was playing 17 minutes a night with BO or Petey he might also have 28 points, we will never know. 

 

But the biggest difference is that Jake plays a physical game unlike the other two, which is much needed as we don't have a lot of physical forwards.  So you need to take that into consideration.  He may never get the same amount of points as Ehlers or Nylander but if he is a 20 goal guy on the 3rd line playing a power forward game then I am happy we have Jake.  And being a local boy may help with marketing in the future if he can play consistently at this level.  And best of all his overall game translates better in a tough 7 game playoff series than an Ehlers or a Nylander, so that could be the deciding factor when we get to see Jake in the playoffs.

Excellent post and I know Alf will strongly agree lol.

 

I would take Virtanen over both Nylander and Ehlers for the reasons you state above if he continues at the pace he is at this year. The point difference (28 instead of 20) is not enough for me to want another small soft player.

[kloubek]

That is exactly it. While you might (ok... you will) get more points out of a guy like Nylander during the season, I feel when the going gets tough, it is guys like JV who you need to win playoff games. Guys like Nylander get checked off their game, while guys like Jake are both focused on less by the opposition, are tougher, and dole out the damage rather than absorbing it.

 

All this, plus the fact that Jake comes cheap and Nylander is (imo) overvalued thanks to his flash and point totals.

 

Yeah it would have been great to have drafted a higher scoring guy in the #6 position, but at the end of the day I think we did ok. I think it should also be considered where would we be right now in cap land if we were paying another 6-7 million in salary.

[Ballisticsports.]

53 minutes ago, kloubek said:

That is exactly it. While you might (ok... you will) get more points out of a guy like Nylander during the season, I feel when the going gets tough, it is guys like JV who you need to win playoff games. Guys like Nylander get checked off their game, while guys like Jake are both focused on less by the opposition, are tougher, and dole out the damage rather than absorbing it.

 

All this, plus the fact that Jake comes cheap and Nylander is (imo) overvalued thanks to his flash and point totals.

 

Yeah it would have been great to have drafted a higher scoring guy in the #6 position, but at the end of the day I think we did ok. I think it should also be considered where would we be right now in cap land if we were paying another 6-7 million in salary.

Will that apply to OUR lighter guys in EP, Hughes and BB ?

[kloubek]

50 minutes ago, ba;;isticsports said:

Will that apply to OUR lighter guys in EP, Hughes and BB ?

I was worried about Hughes, but he has such elite edgework and smarts that he usually gets himself out of such situations. Still, he will need to keep his head on a swivel to avoid getting crushed.

 

Brock is not a small guy. I think he will be fine.

 

As for Petey, I actually would expect he will be subject to such pressure and in our first playoff run would not be surprised to see him struggle with playoff intensity. But he has a big enough frame and when he gets to 190-195 I think he will be ok. He also already plays far more heavy than a guy like Nylander imo. 

 

I do think, however, that we need to maintain our overall size to help offset playoff intensity and potential size of other teams. Benning knows this, and has tried to get bigger guys to withstand such. That's where guys like Ferland, Virtanen, Myers, Edler, Pearson, Miller and Horvat will need to go all-out. We have already seen how heavier teams like Vegas can be a handful when we let them dictate the play. We need to be the aggressors imo, and I believe we have enough heavy guys to do it.

 

So in short, no - I think we will he ok thanks mainly to the mix Benning has put together. But I also think a team like Toronto is a prime example of what happens when you build a team on skill without considering how the team as a whole will perform in such situations. Their series with Boston was really no contest last year and I feel they will continue to struggle unless they make some changes to better handle the rigors of playoff hockey. 

Edited December 27, 2019 by kloubek

[coastal.view]

On 12/21/2019 at 2:39 PM, Silky mitts said:

It’s like people forgot how dominant bertuzzi was lol

yes

 

and so i thought

i wonder how big bert really was

so went to look it up

6'3, 246 pounds

um, so yeah, jake is never going to be that size

 

bert was big big like lindros

players bounced off him

he scored many goals in the slot as opposing d could not control him

 

the league made a subtle rule enforcement change

cuz bert was getting too big of an advantage by his size

i'm trying to remember what rule it was, likely something to do with interference

[Ballisticsports.]

27 minutes ago, coastal.view said:

yes

 

and so i thought

i wonder how big bert really was

so went to look it up

6'3, 246 pounds

um, so yeah, jake is never going to be that size

 

bert was big big like lindros

players bounced off him

he scored many goals in the slot as opposing d could not control him

 

the league made a subtle rule enforcement change

cuz bert was getting too big of an advantage by his size

i'm trying to remember what rule it was, likely something to do with interference

I remember him pushing away defencemen in front easily, and clearing the way for him to score

Yet you still see Defencemen even today, pushing forwards from out front of the crease with their sticks and not called for it

He just did it so easily