Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[Warhippy]

1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said:

Global events seem to be wreaking havoc in commodity markets. Today it was Oil's turn.

 

 

That is at one point a $23 dollar/barrel intraday drop. At one point it fell $11 in under 7 minutes. If you had bought just 1 contract at $115 you would have been down $11,000 in no time. So strange to see oil go essentially 'no bid'. It may be the biggest intraday drop ever. I've certainly never seen one that big.

 

 

Oil is tanking you say?

 

Why, we must increase prices at the pump by 10 cents to make up for this!

 

(every oil company/fuel outlet ever)

[Russ]

2 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

Global events seem to be wreaking havoc in commodity markets. Today it was Oil's turn.

 

 

That is at one point a $23 dollar/barrel intraday drop. At one point it fell $11 in under 7 minutes. If you had bought just 1 contract at $115 you would have been down $11,000 in no time. So strange to see oil go essentially 'no bid'. It may be the biggest intraday drop ever. I've certainly never seen one that big.

 

 

And thats why I don't screw with contracts lol. 

[AriGold]

Hopped back in the game for a bit. With the crazy money I made off the Tesla split I couldn't sit by and watch Amazon. Snagged 5 shares for a hold till the end of May.

 

[Warhippy]

All of those dips.

 

Who is buying them and what are you buying?

Remember, buying the dip during a potential global conflict can make you a lot of money.  It's a serious risk for sure, but if the world ends; not like you'll be spending it or feeling the loss anyways right?

[Boudrias]

19 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

All of those dips.

 

Who is buying them and what are you buying?

Remember, buying the dip during a potential global conflict can make you a lot of money.  It's a serious risk for sure, but if the world ends; not like you'll be spending it or feeling the loss anyways right?

I'm not as adventurous as you. We could easily drop into a lengthy recession. I added to my oils last week and will do more if WTI drops to $80. The dividends coming from there will keep growing. Oil is a 4-5 year play for me. On the USA side I am holding cash and will by GOOGL and even MSFT if their P/E drops to 20. My outlier in that space is RIO which is another commodity based buy. I have a +/- $5.00 dividend coming in April. 

 

Bottom line is buy companies with strong cash positions, growth and ideally pay dividends. Wait out the storm.

[Warhippy]

Just now, Boudrias said:

I'm not as adventurous as you. We could easily drop into a lengthy recession. I added to my oils last week and will do more if WTI drops to $80. The dividends coming from there will keep growing. Oil is a 4-5 year play for me. On the USA side I am holding cash and will by GOOGL and even MSFT if their P/E drops to 20. My outlier in that space is RIO which is another commodity based buy. I have a +/- $5.00 dividend coming in April. 

 

Bottom line is buy companies with strong cash positions, growth and ideally pay dividends. Wait out the storm.

I've pulled almost all of my money out of the markets.  I have about $10,000 split between 4 blockchain/crypto mining stocks and one NFT pairing.  I have some in to Rolls Royce because their move towards electric jet engines and small nuclear reactors is now looking more promising than ever, with rumours the UK and german governments are willing to start shoving $$ towards them to get off of Russian energy.  And I think, I have one or two more with a slant towards medical aspects like testing and naturopathic BS that people seem to want to dump money in to because drs are bad.

 

All of them are the $0.20 and under kind of stocks, them penny and pink sh*ts but I have $7500 saved up for some interesting plays if they come about.

 

Watching what's going on though with China shutting down again, Russia getting hammered and inflation kicking in the door like a night of surprise sex from your prison cellmate I am more thinking I am doing absolutely squat for a time here.

[UnkNuk]

Any opinions on how serious this would be if it came to pass?

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541

 

Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

 

Excerpts:

 

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.

 

and

 

The Saudi move could chip away at the supremacy of the U.S. dollar in the international financial system, which Washington has relied on for decades to print Treasury bills it uses to finance its budget deficit.

 

“The oil market, and by extension the entire global commodities market, is the insurance policy of the status of the dollar as reserve currency,” said economist Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security who co-wrote a book about de-dollarization. “If that block is taken out of the wall, the wall will begin to collapse.”

 

 

[Warhippy]

58 minutes ago, UnkNuk said:

Any opinions on how serious this would be if it came to pass?

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541

 

Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

 

Excerpts:

 

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.

 

and

 

The Saudi move could chip away at the supremacy of the U.S. dollar in the international financial system, which Washington has relied on for decades to print Treasury bills it uses to finance its budget deficit.

 

“The oil market, and by extension the entire global commodities market, is the insurance policy of the status of the dollar as reserve currency,” said economist Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security who co-wrote a book about de-dollarization. “If that block is taken out of the wall, the wall will begin to collapse.”

 

 

The BRICS nations have been bandying this for a while.  Having a major OPEC player on board outside of Russia would really put the screws to the world economy.

[nuckin_futz]

13 hours ago, UnkNuk said:

Any opinions on how serious this would be if it came to pass?

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541

 

Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

 

Excerpts:

 

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.

 

and

 

The Saudi move could chip away at the supremacy of the U.S. dollar in the international financial system, which Washington has relied on for decades to print Treasury bills it uses to finance its budget deficit.

 

“The oil market, and by extension the entire global commodities market, is the insurance policy of the status of the dollar as reserve currency,” said economist Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security who co-wrote a book about de-dollarization. “If that block is taken out of the wall, the wall will begin to collapse.”

 

 

There are 2 versions of the Yuan. An offshore Yuan and an onshore Yuan. The onshore Yuan (used within China) is not a free floating currency. It's movements are controlled by the PBOC (central bank). They set a reference rate daily and it's only allowed to move a certain amount from that point per day. The offshore Yuan while allowed to float freely never strays from the onshore Yuan.

 

In order for the Yuan to ever become the world's reserve currency the CCP would have to crumble. The financial world has way more trust in the US government than the CCP. Until that changes the USD$ is king. Bottom line is would you rather keep your money in dollars or Yuan?

[Warhippy]

29 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

There are 2 versions of the Yuan. An offshore Yuan and an onshore Yuan. The onshore Yuan (used within China) is not a free floating currency. It's movements are controlled by the PBOC (central bank). They set a reference rate daily and it's only allowed to move a certain amount from that point per day. The offshore Yuan while allowed to float freely never strays from the onshore Yuan.

 

In order for the Yuan to ever become the world's reserve currency the CCP would have to crumble. The financial world has way more trust in the US government than the CCP. Until that changes the USD$ is king. Bottom line is would you rather keep your money in dollars or Yuan?

Easily understood.  Thanks for the heads up.

 

Now what about a move back towards the gold standard?

[J-23]

[nuckin_futz]

 

A 5 year chart of Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation fund. The fund is approx -69% off the top. On a 5yr basis the fund is now being outperformed by old man Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway.

 

Wood's 3rd largest holding is (TDOC) Teledoc is -40% today after reporting earnings and providing poor guidance. Wood's bought another 260,000 shares of TDOC yesterday ahead of earnings.

 

Looks like the legend of Cathie Wood is no more.

Edited April 28, 2022 by nuckin_futz

[nuckin_futz]

Archegos owner Bill Hwang and former CFO Halligan plead not guilty to U.S. fraud charges

• Archegos Capital Management’s owner, Bill Hwang, and its former chief financial officer, Patrick Halligan, have been charged with racketeering and securities fraud in connection with the collapse of the family office last year.
• The men pleaded not guilty to the charges on Wednesday afternoon.
• Hwang was released on a $100 million bond, which is secured by two properties and $5 million in cash, while Halligan was released on a $1 million bond.
• Two other senior Archegos executives, who were named in the complaint, are cooperating with authorities and have pleaded guilty,

 

Archegos Capital Management’s owner, Bill Hwang, and its former chief financial officer, Patrick Halligan, pleaded not guilty Wednesday to criminal charges filed against them in connection with the implosion of the family office last year.

 

The men were arrested Wednesday morning and appeared in Manhattan federal court that afternoon. They have been charged with racketeering and securities fraud.

 

U.S. Magistrate Judge Jennifer Willis ordered Hwang released on $100 million bond, which is secured by two properties and $5 million in cash, while Halligan was released on a $1 million bond.

 

Earlier Wednesday, in a 59-page indictment, federal prosecutors alleged Hwang used his personal fortune to manipulate markets and commit fraud in a scheme that had far-reaching consequences and left banks on the hook for more than $10 billion.

 

The family office’s collapse shed light on potential risks at these private funds, which are used to manage the fortunes of wealthy individuals but operate under less regulatory oversight than hedge funds.

 

The charging documents say Hwang and Halligan used leverage to inflate their market positions, which swelled to as much as $160 billion before the scheme came crashing down.

 

Hwang allegedly used derivative securities that had no public disclosure requirements, which helped shield the size of Archegos’ positions in the market. As a result, investors were unaware that Archegos was dominating the trading of a few select companies, which included media companies ViacomCBS and Discovery Communications and Chinese education technology company GSX Techedu, among others.

 

 

Over the course of about a year, Hwang’s wealth rose from about $1.5 billion to more than $35 billion, the documents said. But the scheme fell apart in late March 2021 when the prices of these stocks declined and Archegos was unable to continue to prop up its positions, according to the documents.

 

After Archegos couldn’t meet its margin calls, the firms’ counterparties suffered significant losses. Credit Suisse suffered the most, tallying some $5 billion in losses, when the family office collapsed. But Nomura, Morgan Stanley and UBS also lost money.

 

In addition to the action taken by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, suits have been filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

 

“The collapse of Archegos last spring demonstrated how activities by one firm can have far-reaching implications for investors and market participants,” said SEC Chair Gary Gensler, in a press release.

 

The complaints also name William Tomita, Archegos’ head trader, and Scott Becker, its chief risk officer, for their alleged involvement. The two are cooperating with authorities and have pleaded guilty, according to Manhattan U.S. Attorney Damian Williams.

 

Attorneys for both Hwang and Halligan said their clients are innocent.

 

“We are extremely disappointed that the U.S. Attorney’s Office has seen fit to indict a case that has absolutely no factual or legal basis; a prosecution of this type, for open-market transactions, is unprecedented and threatens all investors,” said Lawrence Lustberg, a lawyer at Gibbons who is representing Hwang.

 

In a statement, Mary Mulligan, a lawyer at Friedman Kaplan Seiler & Adelman who is representing Halligan, said he was “innocent and will be exonerated.”

 

In 2012, Hwang pleaded guilty in an insider trading case involving two Chinese bank stocks. At the time, he was running an Asia-focused hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management. Last May, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood disclosed that Hwang had provided the seed funding for her first four ETFs.

 

**************************************

 

The run ups and eventual crash in VIAC and DISCA among others about a year ago was quite the story. Now the fraudster behind it appears to be getting what he deserves.

 

Oh yeah, Bill Hwang was the seed money for Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation Funds.

Edited April 28, 2022 by nuckin_futz

[nuckin_futz]

On 1/24/2022 at 3:03 PM, CBH1926 said:

Crazy to see how low have PLTR, TDOC, DFKG, SOFI, ADPT etc. have sunk so low in the last 6 month.

Brutal!

Take a look at them now.

[Warhippy]

A lot of money was made in a very VERY short period of time but wow the last 4 months or so have been not so nice to people.  The last week alone has been...yikes

[HI5]

 

[Down by the River]

3 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

 

A 5 year chart of Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation fund. The fund is approx -69% off the top. On a 5yr basis the fund is now being outperformed by old man Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway.

 

Wood's 3rd largest holding is (TDOC) Teledoc is -40% today after reporting earnings and providing poor guidance. Wood's bought another 260,000 shares of TDOC yesterday ahead of earnings.

 

Looks like the legend of Cathie Wood is no more.

I can't remember if it was you or someone else in this thread who posted about 8-12 months ago cautioning me about ARK. Whoever it was saved me a buttload of money (by my standards).

[24K PureCool]

6 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

I can't remember if it was you or someone else in this thread who posted about 8-12 months ago cautioning me about ARK. Whoever it was saved me a buttload of money (by my standards).

Yeah I didn't sell all of them lost a bit there. Only have like 10 shares so whatever, just gonna be a tax write off. 

[nuckin_futz]

1 hour ago, Down by the River said:

I can't remember if it was you or someone else in this thread who posted about 8-12 months ago cautioning me about ARK. Whoever it was saved me a buttload of money (by my standards).

Yeah it was me. We exchanged a few DM's in Feb 2021. Incidentally Feb 2021 marked the top for ARKK.

Your sir, are very welcome.

Went back and found my thesis/rant ......

 

On 2/23/2021 at 2:10 PM, nuckin_futz said:

Just my opinion. In the next 2 years there's a 50% chance Cathie blows up.

 

On 2/23/2021 at 3:51 PM, nuckin_futz said:

Blowing up does not equate to dwindling to nothing.

 

IMO this is a market that is fresh out of good original ideas. First of all repeatedly plowing into the same 5 or 6 stocks. Then the SPAC craze. There's too many of them chasing too few opportunities. It's going to end badly for the majority of them. You know it's a mania when Kaepernick is forming a SPAC to focus on Social Justice. Greedy bastards like A-Rod pimping his SPAC, etc. Then the short busting game. Yeah it was fun watching GME levitate but that quickly ended in tears. Then this crazy idea to teach Jamie Dimon a lesson by running silver. Then of course everyone blindly chucking money at Cathie because she's buying speculative names during a raging bull market fueled by an irresponsible Fed.

 

Cathie Wood has become a victim of her own success. The amount of dough flowing into her funds is simply obscene. It's literally off the chart. It's not like she can go plow it into WMT or BAC etc. She has a limited universe in which to allocate these funds. Which puts her in a precarious position. I think she already owns 10% of at least 24 companies. Where do you go from there? Where do you allocate the existing capital not to mention all the capital that continues to flow in? Today she was in the market loading up on TSLA. That doesn't seem like a wise thing to do to me but what choice does she have?

 

Another astonishing thing she does is let her positions be known on a daily basis. What is the benefit in doing that other than to sate one's ego? There is a long history of the market figuring out another entity's positions and driving the market against them. We saw it recently with Melvin Capital. Brian Hunter at Amaranth Advisors is another good example. So Cathie is in speculative names some of which are thinly traded and she's advertising her positions to anyone who will listen. That's just not wise.

 

Eventually this market which is out of good original ideas and flush with cheap money will turn on her. Why? Because she's put herself in a vulnerable position and it's survival of the fittest.

 

She herself has said in a rising rate environment her funds would get hit especially hard. Well we are in a rising rate environment and what has happened to her funds? They have been hit much harder than the Nasdaq. When her performance suffers she'll be hit with redemption requests and have to sell holdings that aren't the most liquid and thus begins the vicious cycle. When that happens the pile on will begin.

 

She's obviously a bright fund manager but I do think a considerable part of her success can be attributed to an environment embracing risk taking driven by cheap money. She's good but she's no Peter Lynch.

 

[I.Am.Ironman]

Why did markets rip today?