Markus Granlund | #60 | C/W

[aGENT]

7 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Could be. Definitely an option that should be comsidered. But I think we'll have to see how the first half plays out. If Baer can build off last season and possibly improve on his 2016-17 per 60 scoring rate (which was best in the team IIRC), it might make more sense to hold on to him and consider moving another piece. Especially if he's proving to be a key component in driving offense on a line with Horvat.

All the better to sell high! 

 

I think they have Dahlen penciled in to that (smaller, skilled LW) role in the future and are hoping a Granlund/Rodin tandem can be a cheaper stepping stone to him (if Rodin can stay healthy and perform). I think they'd prefer to spend the cap $ they would be next summer on Baer, on adding some physicality with skill to the top 6 with Kane if they can. That's a dimension we presently lack.

 

But yes, this will all depend on how Dahlen shows, if Rodin can stay healthy, if Granlund can keep progressing etc.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

6 minutes ago, J.R. said:

All the better to sell high! 

 

I think they have Dahlen penciled in to that (smaller, skilled LW) role in the future and are hoping a Granlund/Rodin tandem can be a cheaper stepping stone to him (if Rodin can stay healthy and perform). I think they'd prefer to spend the cap $ they would be next summer on Baer, on adding some physicality with skill to the top 6 with Kane if they can. That's a dimension we presently lack.

 

But yes, this will all depend on how Dahlen shows, if Rodin can stay healthy, if Granlund can keep progressing etc.

Yeah, I definitely see the benefit of selling high. I just don't have a good enough read on Baertschi's ceiling yet to know what selling high would be. It's possible that he peaks at a 2nd liner that puts up around 2 points per 60. Or he might still have room to grow. 

 

It would be typical Canucks luck to sell Baertschi at 2nd liner value and then watch him develop into a legitimate first liner with another team.

 

He is only 24. 

 

That said, I do tend to hope that we can improve on him by swapping in a younger player with higher potential at that position. Or one that contributes similar scoring but also brings a more complete game. 

 

Thankfully, it's not my decision.  

 

And since I don't have a hockey ops staff tucked away around here, I'll let the Canucks make that call. 

[Boudrias]

7 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Yeah, I definitely see the benefit of selling high. I just don't have a good enough read on Baertschi's ceiling yet to know what selling high would be. It's possible that he peaks at a 2nd liner that puts up around 2 points per 60. Or he might still have room to grow. 

 

It would be typical Canucks luck to sell Baertschi at 2nd liner value and then watch him develop into a legitimate first liner with another team.

 

He is only 24. 

 

That said, I do tend to hope that we can improve on him by swapping in a younger player with higher potential at that position. Or one that contributes similar scoring but also brings a more complete game. 

 

Thankfully, it's not my decision.  

 

And since I don't have a hockey ops staff tucked away around here, I'll let the Canucks make that call. 

Funny how perceptions can vary. Like you I do not think Baer's true upside is known yet. J.R.'s concern is warranted. We are talking a player who should/could have had 50 point season. His compete level took a big jump last year. Saying all this I do not see him as being on a Canuck CUP contending team. Of course all this goes by the wayside if he has a big season.  

[TimberWolf]

We should be careful not to overate Granlund with expectations.

 

Keep in mind his Shooting percentage is not sustainable and he's not likely to get the same kind of offensive zone starts and favourable minutes. Also with the staggering amount of pp and top six minutes (17-18 mins) a game last season his point totals were not as flattering as we're making out. There are always players like this on a bad team 

 

Not saying he can't become a 20 goal scorer like some are predicting, just it's not a given yet and playing less minutes and probably less powerplay he'll have to be something special to hit that. 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

23 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Funny how perceptions can vary. Like you I do not think Baer's true upside is known yet. J.R.'s concern is warranted. We are talking a player who should/could have had 50 point season. His compete level took a big jump last year. Saying all this I do not see him as being on a Canuck CUP contending team. Of course all this goes by the wayside if he has a big season.  

Yeah, Baertschi hasn't shown enough (yet) to convince me he's a "plus" player at a top-six position on a contending team. So far he looks like a competent 2nd liner on a middling team. But he's not "value added" so to speak.

 

That can all change if he takes another step in development. But I'm just not sure how much more room for improvement he has. Or if his scoring rate last season is even sustainable (never mind a springboard for even greater production).

 

We'll see what happens.

 

3 minutes ago, TimberWolf said:

We should be careful not to overate Granlund with expectations.

 

Keep in mind his Shooting percentage is not sustainable and he's not likely to get the same kind of offensive zone starts and favourable minutes. Also with the staggering amount of pp and top six minutes (17-18 mins) a game last season his point totals were not as flattering as we're making out. There are always players like this on a bad team 

 

Not saying he can't become a 20 goal scorer like some are predicting, just it's not a given yet and playing less minutes and probably less powerplay he'll have to be something special to hit that. 

All very true. And thanks for steering the discussion back to Granlund.  

 

He's also a guy who will need to build on his last season to prove his value moving forward. I tend to agree that he will need to see his opportunities reduced if we hope to raise the quality of the overall team. Will he be able to maintain his production levels with less minutes? It's possible. While his individual numbers might have been somewhat inflated, his team (on-ice) numbers were quite low and likely will see some improvement simply through regression. So if he can stay close to the same range in goalscoring, but get a boost in his assists, then maybe Granlund manages to still produce well even with less quality minutes.

[MattJVD]

I'm not sure where Granlund land in our line-up. Back with the twins? Bottom 6? Is Ganger a similar player to him at all? 

[Cramarossa]

 

[Cramarossa]

Did anyone else see Markus driving the Tesla on instagram today?  My dude's riding in style! 

 

I'm happy to hear the wrist is doing well. Funny they asked him about Bo's contract; I think they are friends, wonder of they've talked about it at all. If Granny has a similar season to last year or even better in goals scored what kind of contract will he demand? Two to three mil?

 

 

Edited August 18, 2017 by Cramarossa

[wildcam]

On February 10, 2017 at 8:11 AM, Alflives said:

Granlund is an average player, at best.  Sure he's better than Shinkaruk, but that's not saying much.

Grandlund is a 20 goal scorer in the NHL now a days is very good.. Look most team 4-5  guys with over 20 goals..

 

Grandlund has talent and I knew it with his AHL stats and world u20 he was very good.. Great trade again JB

[wildcam]

Shinkaruk is not scoring 15 goals in AHL? Big talent difference between Grandlund 19 G NHL ) and  ( Shinkaruck, 15 G AHL)

Last I looked Shinkaruck is still in AHL.. 

[kloubek]

On 8/3/2017 at 10:00 AM, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Yeah, I definitely see the benefit of selling high. I just don't have a good enough read on Baertschi's ceiling yet to know what selling high would be. It's possible that he peaks at a 2nd liner that puts up around 2 points per 60. Or he might still have room to grow. 

I'm one of the ones who didn't see a lot of value in Granlund, so my opinion isn't worth much....

 

But regardless, my concern with Baertschi is lack of progression in his game.

 

I know there are other elements to consider like offensive zone starts, etc - but I took a look at his stats.  I considered the amount of games played in a season and extrapolated it to 82 games from 2012 to 2017.  I then took his amount of  time on ice per game, then adjusted his points to consider same amount of time on ice per game of 15 minutes.  That gives us his average production level over the 5 year span if he were to play 15 minutes a game, and 82 games per year.  This is what I found:

 

2012-2013: 

47 points

2013:2014: 

35 points
 

2014-2015:

43 points
 

2015-2016: 

37 points
 

2016-2017: 

39 points

I do think he is a legit 2nd liner, but besides perhaps being a bit more defensively responsible, he really hasn't developed any since he has been in the NHL since his arrival. In fact, his rookie year was by far his best considering the amount he played.

 

I'd expect his average will probably be about 40-41 points per 15 minutes this coming season - so given the likelihood of an increased role to about 17 minutes a game, that alone would have him end up with around 46 points overall this season.  That's a slight improvement in ability ability/chemistry, but more likely to do with increased ice time.  Add in the fact that he will likely have an even better Horvat and maybe a better-scoring right winger on his line in Boeser, I'd say it will probably be closer to 50-52 points total if he plays the full 82 games.  That actually IS good enough for low-end 1st line scoring statistically.  But at the end of the day, any team needs more out of their 1st line than that and I think he has been and will continue to appear better than he really is playing with Horvat and perhaps at some point Boeser.

 

In summary, I feel he hasn't really shown an ability to improve much beyond his raw skill, which translates to a low-end 1st liner, or an elite 2nd liner with little upside beyond that.  Nothing to scoff at, really... especially considering what we paid to acquire him, but I also believe the risk of trading him now is relatively low for us since I believe what you see is what you get.  

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

@kloubek:

 

I'm on my phone. And since David Johnson got hired in Calgary, and his Hockey Analysis family of websites closed, it's a little tough to pull data (most of the other websites are painfully slow on mobile). So I'm gonna go from memory a bit here.

 

I'm pretty sure Baertschi showed good progression the last couple seasons in his 5v5 points/60, as well as some of his underlying metrics. IIRC, his points/60 was nearly 0.5 higher in 2016-17 than 2015-16 (went from around 1.4 to 1.9 if memory serves). So that's encouraging.

 

Also encouraging is the fact that Baertschi has developed into a solid three zone player who gives his full effort every shift. When you read Brian Burke's criticisms from 2013 and compare to the player we see today, you get a sense how far Baer has come (and how much our coaches helped him).

 

I'd also be careful with any analysis using projected totals while comparing seasons played on two different teams and also comparing 20-25 game seasons to 65-70 game seasons. You suggest Baertschi's 2012-13 season was his best and that he hasn't progressed since then. But that was only a 20 game sample. You could pull a stretch of 20 games last season (from his 68 games total) where Baertschi blew those numbers away. There was one point last year where Baertschi was top-10 in the league in scoring rate (per minute 5v5). 

 

I think it's best to look at what Baertschi has done since arriving in Vancouver and over the last two full seasons (where he's played 69 and 68 games). Again, I'm on mobile and can't easily pull numbers, but from what I can recall, Baer's numbers chart rather nicely over that two span and show nice progression. And the eye test also shows a player who's gone from a somewhat one dimensional game to a someone who can be trusted by his coaches in all zones and game states (while also producing offense at a near first line rate).

 

My big question with Baertschi is whether or not he has more to show us? Or has he already topped out? But I have no question in my mind that he's progressed as a player. His last two seasons (in Vancouver) are the best of his NHL career IMO. And last season was a significant improvement and puts him on an upward trajectory. The question is if he keeps rising or hits a plateau?

 

All of which feeds back into my issue with placing a value on Baertschi. I just don't know what he is. If he's topped out, then he's a second liner. But he might still have first line upside. And this coming season will (likely) answer that question.

[higgyfan]

1 hour ago, kloubek said:

In summary, I feel he hasn't really shown an ability to improve much beyond his raw skill, which translates to a low-end 1st liner, or an elite 2nd liner with little upside beyond that.  Nothing to scoff at, really... especially considering what we paid to acquire him, but I also believe the risk of trading him now is relatively low for us since I believe what you see is what you get.  

I tend to agree with what you have said, although with some players (like Baer), their comfort/confidence level can really effect their game.  He clearly had a dismal struggle trying to make the team in Calgary, but appeared to regain it while playing in Utica and then Vancouver.  I don't see Baer becoming a solid 1st line player (certainly not on a good team), but if he can maintain at least 35pt/20g seasons; he would be considered a good 2nd line.  It was a good trade for Vancouver and considering what Calgary got in return; it was a good trade for them as well. 

 

Both Baer and Granny may end up being traded at some point, as their roles will likely be filled by younger players in 2 or 3 yrs.  Regardless, they have both more than exceeded expectations and will get decent returns in any future trade.

[Rob_Zepp]

30 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

I tend to agree with what you have said, although with some players (like Baer), their comfort/confidence level can really effect their game.  He clearly had a dismal struggle trying to make the team in Calgary, but appeared to regain it while playing in Utica and then Vancouver.  I don't see Baer becoming a solid 1st line player (certainly not on a good team), but if he can maintain at least 35pt/20g seasons; he would be considered a good 2nd line.  It was a good trade for Vancouver and considering what Calgary got in return; it was a good trade for them as well. 

 

Both Baer and Granny may end up being traded at some point, as their roles will likely be filled by younger players in 2 or 3 yrs.  Regardless, they have both more than exceeded expectations and will get decent returns in any future trade.

Not going to single you out but why does everyone seem to say that about Baertschi or imply that he isn't going to get any better etc.?   He was a high first round pick (top 1/2 of first round), put up draft +1 year point totals in CHL (WHL) that were off the charts insane and finally after getting a full time gig in NHL has over two seasons, his first two full seasons, put up more goals than Daniel Sedin did in his first two and he did it in quite a number of fewer games.    Not saying SB is the next HOF player to wear a Canuck uniform but some guys take longer to develop and he is all of 24 years old - LOTS of NHL players improve after that age.

[higgyfan]

2 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Not going to single you out but why does everyone seem to say that about Baertschi or imply that he isn't going to get any better etc.?   He was a high first round pick (top 1/2 of first round), put up draft +1 year point totals in CHL (WHL) that were off the charts insane and finally after getting a full time gig in NHL has over two seasons, his first two full seasons, put up more goals than Daniel Sedin did in his first two and he did it in quite a number of fewer games.    Not saying SB is the next HOF player to wear a Canuck uniform but some guys take longer to develop and he is all of 24 years old - LOTS of NHL players improve after that age.

In the part that you bolded I was referring to fan expectations.  As far as I'm concerned, being a good 2nd line winger is a terrific achievement in the NHL; especially when you consider that he is very solid in both ends of the ice.  Maybe he can reach higher goals; nobody can predict the future.  Certainly not me!

[189lb enforcers?]

Granny or Sutter with Vanek is the beginnings of a nice 3rd line. 

Looking forward to seeing a Granny get some O-zone parity and what he does with it. Shifty lil buggar! 

[Alflives]

38 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Granny or Sutter with Vanek is the beginnings of a nice 3rd line. 

Looking forward to seeing a Granny get some O-zone parity and what he does with it. Shifty lil buggar! 

Granny scored 19 with an injured wrist.  Maybe he pushes for 25 this season?  

[189lb enforcers?]

4 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Granny scored 19 with an injured wrist.  Maybe he pushes for 25 this season?  

Would be nice to shelter him a bit and see if he can make that push.

Its time to stop gifting ice time to the twins anyways. Granny might become something we can use or inflate and flip. I'd rather we keep him and inflate Baer for the TDL. Granny has some of that chippy playoff hockey sense in him. There is a shortage of that on this team and in the NHL. He might be a valuable trade chip one day. 

[Boudrias]

19 hours ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Would be nice to shelter him a bit and see if he can make that push.

Its time to stop gifting ice time to the twins anyways. Granny might become something we can use or inflate and flip. I'd rather we keep him and inflate Baer for the TDL. Granny has some of that chippy playoff hockey sense in him. There is a shortage of that on this team and in the NHL. He might be a valuable trade chip one day. 

How many of his goals last year were crafty moves out of the corners to the net? He is gritty. Baer came a long way last year and his increased compete level had a lot to do with that. While either might be dealt I prefer that older vets are moved as these two and Horvat cement their NHL cred. 

[-Vintage Canuck-]

Where do you guys think Granlund fits in the lineup? I was thinking a spot with the Sedins, as I don't think he belongs in our bottom-six group. Then there is also Eriksson, Boeser, Vanek who will be fighting for the two right wing spots in our top six. Green may even juggle the lines and maybe put him with Horvat and Baertschi. It will be interesting for sure with so many forwards this year and an endless number of possible line combos you could have.