The Vancouver Canucks and their cap strategy over these coming years

[Patel Bure]

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/canucks

 

The Vancouver Canucks and their cap strategy over these coming years

 

As of right now, I am of the belief that we are a 1st round calibre team that will lose to the 1st seeded team in five games.  Our lack of a good ‘defensive minded’ top pairing RD will be our downfall since our two best RD’s, Hamonic and Myers, are #4’s at best.  On the flip side however, I think we will establish ourselves as a playoff calibre team that is past the rebuilding stage and so that’s the good news.

 

My biggest issue with this team now, is how do we go from being 1st rounder fodder, into a 2nd round+++ elite team like Colorado, Vegas, Boston, Tampa, Carolina, NYI, and maybe even a Florida?

 

Most of us know that the obvious answer will be in upgrading our top pairing RD, but how will we go about doing that given our cap structure over these next few years?

 

Boeser will need to re-upped and qualified at 7.5 million minimum, while the promising Jack Rathbone will be scheduled for a raise as well.    While Halak, Sutter, and Motte, can be replaced with Dipietro, and two sub 1 million dollar contracts, which would basically help us pay for Brock, would that really help push us forward?   
 

In the following year after that, Hamonic’s 3 million can be applied towards the raises for both Miller and Horvat, but we’d still need to figure out a way to give Hoglander a raise, as well as, finding a replacement for Hamonic (perhaps Jett Woo internally?).  
 

The main point that I’m getting at is this:  While I’m really happy that the Canucks will likely be playoff bound from here on out, the Canucks will still need to figure out a way as to how to get to the next level while making it work from a cap perspective......and I’m not sure if I see an obvious way in doing that.

 

Walking from JT Miller in two seasons would be an obvious answer, but would anyone here really want to see that given that he is our. It’s versatile player + a natural lockerroom leader?  I don’t.  
 

The only real solution that I see, is if both Klimovich and Rathbone become good enough to the point where....

 

1) Klimovich basically becomes Boeser’s replacement, to which the Canucks then move Boeser for a top pairing “defensive RD” OR a 1st round pick and cap space (assuming that Hughes wasn’t moved for the 1st + cap space).

 

2) Rathbone basically becomes Hughes’ replacement, to which the Canucks then move Hughes for a top pairing “defensive RD” OR a 1st round pick and cap space (assuming that Boeser wasn’t moved for the 1st + cap space).

 

Another more short term oriented solution would be in using someone like Rathbone to be packaged with Tyler Myers for a more immediate upgrade on RD which would give us a greater chances of making a stronger push this season (while figuring out our cap at a later time).

 

It will be interesting to see what happens for sure.  
 

 

Edited October 3, 2021 by Patel Bure

[tas]

it's the tampa bay model. jan rutta isn't a top pairing right d in real life either, but I feel like they've done ok.

 

if you're loaded on the left side, find players to complement that on the right side. 

[Nuxfanabroad]

The twins basically summed it up: You need a max amount of players playing beyond their contracts.

 

Character is needed, of course. Guys committed to continually improve, even after they're 80-90% up a pro player's mtn of progress. I feel JB has drafted a great number of this type..well, let's hope so!

[spook007]

Simple answer we can't have everything in a cap world. Somewhere, someone needs to perform better than anticipated, and when time comes somebody has to move up from the prospects and take over a spot from one of the experienced players... rinse/repeat. 
Benning now has a year to see how it works, and if it doesn't he has to make a few changes next summer to make it right. 

PS we never know for sure, what happens next. So many new players, and an on paper poorer squad went 1game from conference finals only 1 year ago, so lets see how they do before we start to worry too much. 
Have a good season, send a player LTIR,  trade for a good Rhd and call the LTIR player back for the playoffs. 
Isn't that how others do?

 

[JM_]

The answer might lie from within. Maybe we have a sleeper in Persson. Maybe Woo takes a step. Maybe next draft has our guy.

 

I see this as more likely than some sort of blockbuster trade for an established 1RHD.

[Coconuts]

As much as I like Miller, letting him go would go a long way to opening up cap space for a RD. That being said, even middle of the road RD are very much in demand and there's no guarantee we'd be able to acquire one. 

 

Trading for a top end established guy would cost more than we could probably afford via UFA or require assets we wouldn't want to give up via trade. We'll probably just have to insulate the talent we do have on D the best we can and see what happens. 

 

More than anything the salary implications of the coming years make it clear to me that we should be holing on to our high picks. The best way to acquire top end talent is to draft it, and given how drafting has been a strength under JB I think going into the draft with our first and second round picks intact should be a priority. The value of players on ELC's playing in the lineup can't be understated. 

[PunjabiCanucks]

In my opinion Klimovich has to step in and take a spot from Pearson- Pearson gets packaged with a top prospect/ pick for a RD.

 

We have one of the best top 9's in the league, PP should be top 10,  PK is questionable, Defence is above average if OEL and Hughes play solid. Demko can win us games if not series

[Crabcakes]

 

Essentially, Benning has set up contracts coming off the cap to coincide when core pieces need to be re-signed

 

2022:

Boeser renewal 

Luongo off the cap $3M

 

2023:

Horvat, Miller, Hoglander renewals 

Hamonic $3M, Ferland $3.5, Holtby $1.9M, Virtanen $0.5M off the cap 

 

2024:

Petterson renewal

Pearson $3.25, Dickinson $2.65, Myers $6M off the cap

 

2027:

Hughes renewal

Ekman-Larson $7.26 off the cap

 

This is effing brilliant.

 

 

[Crabcakes]

2026:

Demko renewal

Dickinson $4.95 off the cap

[J.I.A.H.N]

Any short falls in money will be borrowed by Aqualini from Hughes and Pettersson

 

No problems here!

[Patel Bure]

1 hour ago, Crabcakes said:

 

Essentially, Benning has set up contracts coming off the cap to coincide when core pieces need to be re-signed

 

2022:

Boeser renewal 

Luongo off the cap $3M

 

2023:

Horvat, Miller, Hoglander renewals 

Hamonic $3M, Ferland $3.5, Holtby $1.9M, Virtanen $0.5M off the cap 

 

2024:

Petterson renewal

Pearson $3.25, Dickinson $2.65, Myers $6M off the cap

 

2027:

Hughes renewal

Ekman-Larson $7.26 off the cap

 

This is effing brilliant.

 

 

The management plan is brilliant, AND your post is brilliant!  :-o.  Well done sir.   Are you the creator of that video analysis?   Awesome awesome post.  

[Crabcakes]

1 minute ago, Patel Bure said:

The management plan is brilliant, AND your post is brilliant!  :-o.  Well done sir.   Are you the creator of that video analysis?   Awesome awesome post.  

The Hockey Guy

[Toyotasfan]

Upgrade Baumgartner, play a better defensive system modelled after Tampa Bay, current roster will accomplish more.

[Patel Bure]

3 hours ago, PunjabiCanucks said:

In my opinion Klimovich has to step in and take a spot from Pearson- Pearson gets packaged with a top prospect/ pick for a RD.

 

We have one of the best top 9's in the league, PP should be top 10,  PK is questionable, Defence is above average if OEL and Hughes play solid. Demko can win us games if not series

Can Klimovich play LW?  If so, then replacing Pearson would be a pretty decent next step.........although I love the defensive game that Pearson brings to the table.  To your point though, something will eventually have to give cap wise.  

 

I think Green and Benning will do one of two things:

 

1) Commit to the 19-20 core that was a part of that bubble playoff experience (i.e. Horvat, Pettersson, Demko, Hughes, Boeser, etc.)

 

2) Use young cheap players that elevate their games significantly (Rathbone, Klimovich, etc.) to move out more expensive players for right side D help, cap space, and 1st round recoup (so basically, using Klimovich, Rathbone, and Podkolzin to replace Boeser, Hughes, and JT Miller).  

 

From the earlier post in this thread ("The Hockey Guy" you tube video), I think it looks like Benning and the Aqua's have a pretty strong long term cap strategy in place.  The key for me, will be in finding that top pairing 'defensive' RD.  I know a few posters on here believe that a strong system might be able to compensate for a weak right side D, but I'm not entirely convinced given the inevitability of injuries.   

 

I'm wondering if there's a young RD "defensive" defenseman out there that would have similar value to Jack Rathbone?   Not a Moritz Seider or Braden Schneider obviously, but maybe a prospect on the tier below? 

 

[VegasCanuck]

Reposting this since the other thread got killed.

 

About 2 weeks ago, I did a post on what I thought the math for this team would be, 3 years out, based on Pettersson signing a 3 year, 7.5 million bridge and Hughes on a 3 year, 6.5 million bridge.

 

I'm reposting this, updated for the fact that Hughes now signing for 6 years at reported 7.75 million, gives us much more cost certainty for the 2024/25 season. This is what I think our primary players and cap space will look like.

 

I'm still working off the NHL's projection that cap will rise 1 million per for the next few years, meaning that we'll have 84.5 million to play with in that season.

 

Forwards:

Pettersson - 10.5 million Per

Boeser - 8 million per (likely 8 years)

Horvat 7 million per (likely 8 years)

Miller or Miller replacement 5 million per I'm assuming that he will eventually be pushed out by younger / cheaper player. Maybe Klimovich??

Garland 4.95 million per

Dickinson 3 million per or similar player. He may be squeezed out by one of our upcoming by then at a lower cap hit.

Motte 2.5 million - or similar player, I'm assuming that he will eventually be squeezed out by younger guys playing similar game

Hoglander 5 million per - I'm assuming a bridge deal on this one, same as Pettersson and Hughes

Podkolzin - 5 million per - I'm projecting his 2nd contract and assuming that it will likely be a bridge deal

Total for Top 9 Forwards, 50.95 million

 

Defense:

OEL 7.26 million

Hughes 7.75 million

Rathbone 3.0 million - will sign a bridge deal, has no arbitration rights and can't get an offer sheet

Juolevi 2.5 million

Poolman I think will eventually be traded and replaced at similar cap hit, possibly to make room for Woo

 

Total top 4 Defense: 20.51

 

Demko - 5 million - I'm assuming that we will carry one primary and a sub 1 million backup moving forward. Unless DiPietro proves he's better than Demko, DiPietro will eventually be moved for picks or prospects. I think we ride Demko at least till the end of his current contract.

 

Total 76.46 projected 2024/25 cap hit!

 

That leaves 8.04 million to round out the roster, not accounting for LTIR, which happens every year, or other changes.

This is just my estimate, there will be trades and moves. I don't think Myers will be here till the end of his contract and it's very likely someone on my forward and defense projections will be moved to spread out cap space, the same as all competitive teams do. Look what has happened in Tampa the last few years on moving guys out to make room.

 

I should actually save this somewhere and look back in 3 years and see how close I was.

 

As before, go ahead and rip it to shreds 

[Elias Pettersson]

11 hours ago, Coconuts said:

As much as I like Miller, letting him go would go a long way to opening up cap space for a RD. That being said, even middle of the road RD are very much in demand and there's no guarantee we'd be able to acquire one. 

 

Trading for a top end established guy would cost more than we could probably afford via UFA or require assets we wouldn't want to give up via trade. We'll probably just have to insulate the talent we do have on D the best we can and see what happens. 

 

More than anything the salary implications of the coming years make it clear to me that we should be holing on to our high picks. The best way to acquire top end talent is to draft it, and given how drafting has been a strength under JB I think going into the draft with our first and second round picks intact should be a priority. The value of players on ELC's playing in the lineup can't be understated. 

I agree with Miller.  He's probably the one guy on a big contract that can be moved for a nice piece on defense.  With Horvat, Miller and Höglander all needing new deals in 2 years, there won't be enough money to pay all of them.  Horvat is our captain and leader, so he needs to be a priority signing for Benning.  Höglander is going to be a star and top 6 player for years to come, so we need to secure him with a long term deal.  Miller can be expendable, especially if Gadjovich and Klimovich can step up and become regular top 9 wingers.

 

Miller+ for a nice solid RHD would be the ideal trade to make next summer.

Edited October 4, 2021 by Elias Pettersson

[spook007]

6 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I agree with Miller.  He's probably the one guy on a big contract that can be moved for a nice piece on defense.  With Horvat, Miller and Höglander all needing new deals in 2 years, there won't be enough money to pay all of them.  Horvat is our captain and leader, so he needs to be a priority signing for Benning.  Höglander is going to be a star and top 6 player for years to come, so we need to secure him with a long term deal.  Miller can be expendable, especially if Gadjovich and Klimovich can step up and become regular top 9 wingers.

 

Miller+ for a nice solid RHD would be the ideal trade to make next summer.

Yes, it will be revisited next summer, but also think we have to let the D be tested for this season to see, what we have got.

If we are lucky Lockwood continues his impressive aggressive play, and if he starts to puck the puck in the net as well, I fancy him to make a push for top 6 over the next couple of yers as well... Best part is, at the moment its not just a pipe dream that some of our prospects, can actually take up spaces on the team, but more likely the reality... Good times

 

[Forsy]

Continue to draft prospects that become good players.

Continue to develop current young players into good players.

Re-sign young players who become good players to not-too-expensive contracts.

Trade for and/or UFA sign good players with reasonable contracts.

 

Year-to-Year salary cap changes versus existing contracts determines the amount of deviation you can make on these four keys.

Edited October 4, 2021 by Forsy

[timberz21]

Wait a minute... Where is the EP and QH blockbuster proposal?

[GB5]

Win a cup in the next 6 years and celebrate.... that's my plan.

 

For what its worth, he cap can fall to hell after that.