[Discussion] How good should the 2021-22 Canucks be?

[combover]

Get rid of the excuse making failures. (JB green) 

Team would be hard pressed to be any worse than what we’ve seen over the last 8 years.

 

team could do well and be in the play off conversation well past November which would be an improvement over JBs teams.

 
But the new GM will have his work cut out

bad contracts cap straped and not really and tradable depth won’t make things easy. 
you’d think after 8 seasons of stinking you’d have be able to trade from a position of strength but not JBs teams our depth comprises of other teams thrown away AHLers. 
 

 

 

 

[Provost]

They should be a bubble wildcard team, which is what most models pegged them to be (well most said we would miss the playoffs but still be in the hunt)… they are currently worse than that.

 

For those that think just swapping out the coach will make us a contender, there are probably a few things that need to happen to make us better than a bubble team.  I have basically written off the next 2-3 seasons as a rebuilding/re-tooling phase.    
 

i honestly think if we don’t change the GM and start planning for the future, we are going to be a bad team for another decade.  Three of our most efficient contracts come off the books in the near future with Horvat, Miller, and Hoglander.  We don’t have high end prospects in the pipeline to give us new efficient contracts so even if we were able to re-sign all those guys, we are going to be worse as it will cost us depth to afford them.

 

It is truly a bleak time to be a Canucks fan and the ownership needs to do something to convince me we even have a chance to work our way out of it.

 

I have been a fan since the 80’s so I am used to losing, heck I have been on this forum for almost 20 years.  There are only two times I have stopped watching games.  One was during the Messier years, and the other is now.  There are some teams that just don’t capture your love and right now to me, this is one of them.

 

I far preferred the undermanned teams fighting every night to get the occasional win to the talented ones that underperformed.

Edited November 23, 2021 by Provost

[aGENT]

Was expecting them to be battling for 3rd in the division/wildcard barring catastrophic injuries or the like.

 

This forward group is massively underperforming and causing the majority of our woes. I have no idea if that's coaching, players, both, or something else but they need to fix that NOW, whatever it is.

 

Benning also needed to find more 'someones' to play PK when he found out we'd be starting without Hamonic, Sutter and Motte. Lammiko was a decent start but then....?

 

 

[Ballisticsports.]

2 hours ago, ba;;isticsports said:

How Good?

We should be better than what we are !

But Canuck fans should be use to losing since joining the NHL

 

Canucks are the third team from the bottom, for the ALL TIME NHL Team  Lowest winning %  in the history of the NHL

Only Coyotes ..009% behind us and Kraken 

and yet we have never had a #1 overall pick

 

I guess it is ok to only say

At least we aren't the Coyotes or Kraken at this stage 

 

[wallstreetamigo]

12 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Was expecting them to be battling for 3rd in the division/wildcard barring catastrophic injuries or the like.

 

This forward group is massively underperforming and causing the majority of our woes. I have no idea if that's coaching, players, both, or something else but they need to fix that NOW, whatever it is.

 

Benning also needed to find more 'someones' to play PK when he found out we'd be starting without Hamonic, Sutter and Motte. Lammiko was a decent start but then....?

 

 

Not filling those pk spots adequately once he knew those guys would be out was a huge misstep. Not sure anyone thought our pk would be this bad but it was pretty obvious it wouldn’t be good.

 

I actually think Hoglander and Garland could be good pk guys.

[billabong]

Owners aren’t going anywhere so accept that fact

 

Benning won’t be back…I mean I hope so cause HOW can you re-sign this man when they don’t make the playoffs?! 
 

Bring in an experienced coach like julien, Babcock or whoever might be available with playoff success so no boudreau

re-jig the line up and hope it works this time.

 

I can defiantly see Miller and horvat requesting trades so that’s how you can mix things up in a big way 

[Junkyard Dog]

I was expecting us to be in the hunt till the end for at least a wildcard spot with an off-chance of 3rd in the division. 

 

I also thought the division would be weaker than it is though.

[Toyotasfan]

I think if Pettersson was productive enough to average close to a point a game ( which he should be able to do) and if the special teams could even come close to middle of the pack league averages the Canucks would be 3rd in the Pacific division this year.

[Chris12345]

I think they should be sitting in 27th overall very comfortably.

 

I am absolutely 100% confident in that on NOV 22, 2021.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Forwards and PP should be near top-10 in league. Maybe just on the outside of the top-3rd in this league.

 

Defence and PK, easily bottom-10 in the league, possibly bottom-5.

 

That’s just personnel based.

Maybe different coaching can tweak things a bit, but this roster is very weak on D and lacks the necessary players (RH faceoff man, good PK Dmen) to dependably kill penalties.

 

The forwards underperforming is a big issue, because we should be able to outscore some of our problems, but we haven’t. It’s the one area I do expect things to improve, however, and without really needing to change/upgrade the personnel.

 

The defence, as currently constructed, is something I expected would limit this team’s chances to compete for a playoff spot. And I don’t see much improvement on the horizon (other than Hamonic hopefully rounding into better form, as he’s been pretty terrible so far).
 

The Canucks D still needs major work, but unfortunately, the team is capped out, and probably needs to “rob Peter to pay Paul,” if they hope to make any upgrades (ie: trade a core roster forward for defensive help).

 

Overall, with good coaching, and some luck, this roster could be on the bubble for the playoffs. If Demko stands on his head, the forwards manage to produce as expected, and PP starts clicking, etc, it might be enough to cover up a weak defence and PK group. 
 

Better coaching and systems could also hide some weaknesses. But I don’t think any coach can make this defensive group “good.” Nor can they fix the personnel issues that plague the current PK.

 

Barring an absolute Cinderella run, I don’t see this roster getting too far. Certainly we’re a long ways away from contending, with the team as currently constructed. There are still major roster holes/weaknesses, despite Benning spending to the cap, and having a pretty good young core in place.

 

The Canucks should be doing better than they are. That much is true. But not so much better that they’d be ever considered a top tier team in this league, or a threat to compete for the Cup any time soon (without changes anyway).

[Coconuts]

I figured they'd be pushing for a 7-8 wildcard spot at best

[BigTramFan]

14 hours ago, erkayloomeh said:

Firing green is the starting point. 

Yes agreed. But my feeling is that JB has now left it too late to act in order to salvage this season. It should have been done after 10 games, when it was clear that nothing was being done to change the outcome.

 

There is a part of me that wants to keep Green on until the end of the season, so we can tank and get an excellent new prospect with our 1st round pick. But that would be terrible for the players. We absolutely should fire Green now, because we can start the process of righting this sinking ship.

 

But what will probably happen is that we will limp to the end of this season under Green. All our players will be frustrated and will not want to play for VAN anymore. They will have mentally shut down and said to themselves " I just wanna get outta here"...that isn't worth the high pick.

[erkayloomeh]

1 minute ago, BigTramFan said:

Yes agreed. But my feeling is that JB has now left it too late to act in order to salvage this season. It should have been done after 10 games, when it was clear that nothing was being done to change the outcome.

 

There is a part of me that wants to keep Green on until the end of the season, so we can tank and get an excellent new prospect with our 1st round pick. But that would be terrible for the players. We absolutely should fire Green now, because we can start the process of righting this sinking ship.

 

But what will probably happen is that we will limp to the end of this season under Green. All our players will be frustrated and will not want to play for VAN anymore. They will have mentally shut down and said to themselves " I just wanna get outta here"...that isn't worth the high pick.

True. Won't be to good for the fanbase either. 

[awalk]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

They should be a bubble wildcard team, which is what most models pegged them to be (well mod said we would miss the playoffs but still be in the hunt)… they are currently worse than that.

 

For those that think just swapping out the coach will make us a contender, there are probably a few things that need to happen to make us better than a bubble team.  I have basically written off the next 2-3 seasons as a rebuilding/re-tooling phase.    
 

i honestly think if we don’t change the GM and start planning for the future, we are going to be a bad team for a other decade.  Three of our most efficient contracts come off the books in the near future with Horvat, Miller, and Hoglander.  We don’t have high end prospects in the pipeline to give us new efficient contracts so even if we were able to re-sign all those guys, we are going to be worse as it will cost us depth to afford them.

 

It is truly a bleak time to be a Canucks fan and the ownership needs to do something to convince me we even have a chance to work our way out of it.

 

I have been a fan since the 80’s so I am used to losing, heck I have been on this forum for almost 20 years.  There are only two times I have stopped watching games.  One was during the Messier years, and the other is now.  There are some teams that just don’t capture your love and right now to me, this is one of them.

 

I far preferred the undermanned teams fighting every night to get the occasional win to the talented ones that underperformed.

Yep. I'll continue watching and cheering but it's fairly hollow at the moment.

[BigTramFan]

42 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Maybe different coaching can tweak things a bit, but this roster is very weak on D and lacks the necessary players (RH faceoff man, good PK Dmen) to dependably kill penalties.

I disagree that our Dmen aren't good PKers. They USED to be great PKers when they played for their previous teams. Now they suck. What is the cause do you think?

 

Hamonic, shorthanded oiGA/60:

2015-16 = 6.6 (NYI)

2016-17 = 5.9 (NYI)

2017-18 = 7.8 (CLG)

2018-19 = 6.4 (CLG)

2019-20 = 7.3 (CLG)

2020-21 = 12.8 (VAN - with Sutter, Motte, Beagle, etc)

2021-22 = 22.5 (VAN)

 

Notice a trend here^^^^???

 

 

OEL, shorthanded oiGA/60:

2017-18 = 6.3 (ARI)

2018-19 = 6.1 (ARI)

2019-20 = 4.8 (ARI)

2020-21 = 5.1 (ARI)

2021-22 = 14.8 (VAN)

 

Poolman, shorthanded oiGA/60:

2019-20 = 5.6 (WPG)

2020-21 = 3.4 (WPG)

2021-22 = 15.5 (VAN)

 

Myers has actually been very good on the PK for VAN the last two years but this year its terrible!

2019-20 = 6.0 (VAN)

2020-21 = 5.4 (VAN)

2021-22 = 17.3 (VAN)

 

This is not just on losing Sutter and Beagle, and Motte being injured. It is our PK system, or lack of one. That is on the coach. I'm not saying JB escapes blame because he hired the coach and he could have done more to fill the void left by Sutter, but again JB has assembled a team of players that SHOULD be able to kill penalties. SHOULD be able to score goals. But they are not performing anywhere near their potential. THAT IS ON THE COACH! 

(sorry about the capitals, I'm not yelling at you )

 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

2 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

I disagree that our Dmen aren't good PKers. They USED to be great PKers when they played for their previous teams. Now they suck. What is the cause do you think?

 

Hamonic, shorthanded oiGA/60:

2015-16 = 6.6 (NYI)

2016-17 = 5.9 (NYI)

2017-18 = 7.8 (CLG)

2018-19 = 6.4 (CLG)

2019-20 = 7.3 (CLG)

2020-21 = 12.8 (VAN - with Sutter, Motte, Beagle, etc)

2021-22 = 22.5 (VAN)

 

Notice a trend here^^^^???

 

 

OEL, shorthanded oiGA/60:

2017-18 = 6.3 (ARI)

2018-19 = 6.1 (ARI)

2019-20 = 4.8 (ARI)

2020-21 = 5.1 (ARI)

2021-22 = 14.8 (VAN)

 

Poolman, shorthanded oiGA/60:

2019-20 = 5.6 (WPG)

2020-21 = 3.4 (WPG)

2021-22 = 15.5 (VAN)

 

Myers has actually been very good on the PK for VAN the last two years but this year its terrible!

2019-20 = 6.0 (VAN)

2020-21 = 5.4 (VAN)

2021-22 = 17.3 (VAN)

 

This is not just on losing Sutter and Beagle, and Motte being injured. It is our PK system, or lack of one. That is on the coach. I'm not saying JB escapes blame because he hired the coach and he could have done more to fill the void left by Sutter, but again JB has assembled a team of players that SHOULD be able to kill penalties. SHOULD be able to score goals. But they are not performing anywhere near their potential. THAT IS ON THE COACH! 

(sorry about the capitals, I'm not yelling at you )

 

There’s no defenceman on this team currently that’s anywhere near as proven or effective on the PK as the two guys we let go (Tanev, Edler).

 

Edler is a career 10 GAR in shorthanded defence. 
 

Tanev is a career 8.8 GAR.

 

Myers was good last year mostly because he was joined at the hip with Edler on the PK. That pairing played 124:46 shorthanded. The next most frequent PK pairing was Edler-Hamonic, at 31:16. Myers played 176:58 total shorthanded, so about 70% of the time, he was with Edler.

 

The previous season, we had Edler-Tanev playing 160:04 shorthanded. The next most frequent pairing was Benn-Tanev at 50:48 (Edler missed 10 games that season).

 

Guys like Myers and Hamonic are fine, when either paired with an elite PK guy like Edler, or playing behind an elite guy like Tanev.

 

To be fair, Hamonic was an excellent PKer his last two years in Calgary, and he has a lot of experience killing penalties. But he’s actually below replacement in shorthanded defensive GAR for his career.
 

And he’s been hot garbage, both 5v5 and PK, so far this season (although I’m hoping he’s going to get better with time, and given his late start, and inconsistent presence in the lineup, due to the vax issues).

 

Here’s our current options (top six defensemen in PK TOI; stats are for shorthanded defensive GAR; sourced from Evolving Hockey):

 

Myers: career -10.1 GAR

OEL: career 0.4 GAR 

Poolman: career -1.2 GAR (and -1.6 GAR last year)

Burroughs: career 0.1 GAR (and <20 minutes on an NHL PK for his career)

Hamonic: career -0.4 GAR (and -1.9 GAR last year)

Schenn: career -4.2 GAR

 

So our 6 most frequent PK defensemen are a total of 15.4 goals below replacement (shorthanded defence) for their careers.

 

The two guys we let go (Edler, Tanev) are a combined 18.8 goals above replacement for their careers.

 

(And before anyone starts complaining about me using career stats, Edler was 1.6 GAR last season and Tanev was 2 GAR, when it comes to shorthanded defence. And so far this season, they’re both on pace for similar or better numbers. Both Edler and Tanev are still very good penalty killers, even this late in their careers.)

 

We’ve basically downgraded the back end two years in a row, by letting our most talented PK defencemen walk. 
 

I’m not saying this explains everything. The numbers this season are way worse than you’d expect, just based off the player personnel and their stats. It’s been a perfect storm of many factors (on and off the ice IMO). But roster construction is definitely one of them. 
 

And I agree that coaching is most definitely another.

 

(I’d do a similar breakdown of shorthanded faceoff percentage, but I don’t want to ruin anyone’s night.)

 

EDIT: Just for some bonus content, Troy Stecher is actually a career 2.1 GAR for shorthanded defence, so even he’s statistically better than any of our current D, when it comes to his overall results on the PK. 

Edited November 23, 2021 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME
Reposted players in order of their PKTOI this season

[RU SERIOUS]

On 11/21/2021 at 2:44 PM, BigTramFan said:

I know this is a ‘what if’ but….how well should this team be performing?

Offense:
Based on the individual players ‘goals for per game’ from the previous 2 seasons the Canucks should be targeting approx. 276 goals for this regular season. But they are currently tracking towards only 209 goals for (about 67 goals less).

 

Our forwards are the main contributors to the projected drop in ‘goals for’, on pace for 62 goals lower than they should be targeting. Especially Pettersson, Pearson, Boeser and Dickinson, who are well down on the pace of goals we expect them to score. Horvat is lagging a bit but can still catch up. Miller and Hoglander are doing better than expected. Garland and Chiasson are performing about as expected. As a rookie, Podkolzin is on track for 15 goals this season, so I have used that as his ‘past’ performance. Motte has been injured so has not put any goals up this season yet. He has time to contribute. For more detail see table below.

 

Note we should expect about 35 goals from our defense corps over the season and we are on pace for 30 goals at this stage. Not too bad and tells the story that the forwards are the main reason for this slump in offense.

 

Defense:
Our team is doing well on 5v5. After 18 games we have given away 37 goals at even strength. The issue is the PK. Currently 23 PP goals against, whereas the league average is 10 PP goals against. If our PK could perform at ‘league average’ for the whole season, then the Canucks would be on track for a total of only 214 goals against. At this stage they are looking at closer to 273 goals against based on the current rate.

 

Summary:

If the individual players scored as they have the previous 2 seasons and our PK was just 'average', then we would looking at 276 goals for and 214 goals against, and could expect to easily make the playoffs.

 

 

For the below table, 'Goals based on previous performance' is based on averaged goal production per game over the past 2 seasons multiplied by 82 games. For 'Projected goals based on performance this season' I have taken the pace of goals scored in the first 18 games multiplied by 82 games.

 

	Goals based on previous performance	Projected goals based on performance this season
Miller	28	32
Pettersson	32	14
Boeser	28	22
Pearson	21	9
Horvat	27	23
Hoglander	19	23
Garland	23	23
Dickinson	11	5
Podkolzin	15	15
Motte	15	0
Lammikko	7	0
Chiasson	15	13
Forwards TOTAL	241	179
OEL	8	9
Hughes	7	10
Myers	8	0
Hamonic	6	0
Poolman	3	5
Burroughs	3	6
Defense TOTAL	35	30
Team TOTAL	276	209

 

That pretty well confirms what we're witnessing this year and graphically illustrates the need to IMMEDIATELY TERMINATE GREEN AND BENNING !

8 YEARS IS ENOUGH!

[vannuck59]

On 11/21/2021 at 8:39 PM, Alflives said:

We WILL BE winning the Cup in 2022.  

LOL with this group . this management and this coach !!! LOL LOL LOL LOL!!!!!!!!!

[vannuck59]

 

20 hours ago, -DLC- said:

You get a great goal scorer like Petey and everyone seems to want to put their stamp on him.  Start refining his game and focusing on things that maybe have taken away from "his" game...which was instinctual and something special.  Have they wrecked Petey by having a to do list for him when, really, what he just needs to do is score?  By focusing on other things he "should be" doing now he's not doing the one thing he was really good at.  It's mind boggling.

 

I get that he's doing "other" things...but we had a "little things" guy and we need a pure goal scorer.  We had that in Petey.  I'm really starting to feel these coaches are over coaching some of our guys and need to tap in to their natural abilities first and foremost.  

 

Who knows (I certainly don't).  Petey appears to really be struggling with the mental game right now and that's a huge hurdle to overcome.  But scoring a few highlight reel goals can bring that all back into focus.  

Holding on to this coach and GM is got us into 5th last and sinking fast ,LOL

[vannuck59]

12 hours ago, combover said:

Get rid of the excuse making failures. (JB green) 

Team would be hard pressed to be any worse than what we’ve seen over the last 8 years.

 

team could do well and be in the play off conversation well past November which would be an improvement over JBs teams.

 
But the new GM will have his work cut out

bad contracts cap straped and not really and tradable depth won’t make things easy. 
you’d think after 8 seasons of stinking you’d have be able to trade from a position of strength but not JBs teams our depth comprises of other teams thrown away AHLers. 
 

 

 

 

Hold on, trading for picks this years and next years draft is what we should be doing rebuild from the bottom out . Miller, Horvat, Boeser and any deman not named Hughes. Stock up on all positions .