[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[AV.]

Rangers will probably make their move for Miller in the coming month or so.  Of course, it's on us to get some goodies back from them.

[kanucks25]

6 minutes ago, CJ44 said:

I agree for sure, Miller's value is super high so he makes the most sense to move....Boeser is up for contract renewal and for me that's the biggest question, how much does he want and can we afford it...I guess that will decide what the team does. 

Yes, it's a tricky situation. Based on his performance so far this year, Boeser is not worth his QO.

 

2 minutes ago, JM_ said:

I would imagine sitting down with Miller is priority #1 for the new mgmt team. If he does want to stay, they could hash out an extension for July 1.

 

Really the only bad situation with Miller is if he ends up walking for nothing. Stay, great. Trade, probably great. Walk, no beuno.

 

I don't think JR is afraid of his age one bit. 

Problem is there is little incentive for Miller to sign before he hits free agency.

 

And if we're punting this to the off-season, we lose quite a bit of trade value because now the team that acquires him only has him for 1 year instead of 1.5~.

 

Tough situation for the new management team. They have some tough decisions to make and are evaluating the team in a weird year with our best player (arguably) having an off-year which throws everything out of whack.

[Nucker 67]

What about something different (other than NYR), the money sort of works

 

to FLA: Miller

to VAN: Hornqvist (25%), Tippett and a 1st (2022)

 

I'd say FLA's chances of winning their first Cup increase greatly with Miller in their forward group.

 

The Canucks get another 1st and Tippett (22) to join the young core. Hornqvist (35) is old, but he can still play and brings some veteran snarl. He has this and next year left. 

 

Could the Canucks get more?  Maybe also a 2nd (2023)?

 

 

[Pbhatti00]

Makes total sense to trade miller now while his value is high. This team won't be contending for a cup anytime soon, and can probably make the playoffs next season with the return they get for him. By the time we are contenders (if we ever get there), he will be 32-33. Trade him to a team that can offer a youth package including a young top 4 RHD that fits our core's age. Potential trading partners that that have a lot youth/picks to offer and will be making playoff pushes: NYR, LA , Ana. Feel like the Rangers are a perfect fit. Hopefully management doesn't mess this one up and sign him to a long term deal. 

Edited January 24, 2022 by Pbhatti00

[Maniwaki Canuck]

On 1/22/2022 at 5:54 PM, aGENT said:

What if we're not trading him (at least solely) because he has trade value (he does)? What if we're moving him because Rutherford knows he wants to go to a contender/doesn't want to stay here/won't stay here for $ or tem that works for the Canucks/doesn't fit the core's contention window of 2-7 +/- years from now?

The "doesn't plan to stay here" scenario is the one that would definitely justify moving him, and there are some indications it might be true.   He's American, been through some covid issues with the team here, there are tax and border issues, and he'll have all kinds of options as an FA in a bit over a year.  From his point of view, staying here might not be the top option.  If we can believe Serevalli, it sounds like management has discussed these issues with Miller's camp and are trying to make a deal that will maximize return for Vancouver and minimize disruption for Miller.  That would be the right way to handle it. 

As for the "window" part of it, it's impossible to know in advance exactly when that would be.  Some guys peak in their mid-20s, others in their early 30s.  Just look at the difference between Hughes and Pettersson right now.  If Petey were on the same developmental curve as Hughes, our window would already be open.  We hope Hoglander and Podkolzin are going to improve their finishing and not just drive play, but who knows?  Cup-winning teams do tend to be veteran-heavy but some (Chicago 2010) were less so and all had a mix of ages.  Timing of career years and injuries play a big role:  there's more than a bit of luck in that.  If your team is declining you might want to take your chances and re-load, but if it's on the rise, that's a pretty big risk.  

Miller is a franchise player.  Moving him voluntarily would be a mistake:  you typically have about a 10% chance of winning or breaking even on those trades.  But if your hand is forced, you do it, and that could well be the situation.  If it happens, we'll still come out ahead of the 1st and 3rd he cost us so I'm going to try to stay zen about it and enjoy watching him play for us while he's still here.  But as a fan with an emotional investment in the team, you have to love a guy like Miller.  His fingerprints are all over the team, particularly the heart they've shown in the last couple of games he's been out of the lineup.  Let's hope that holds up if and when he's gone for good.

[Gawdzukes]

8 minutes ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

The "doesn't plan to stay here" scenario is the one that would definitely justify moving him, and there are some indications it might be true.   He's American, been through some covid issues with the team here, there are tax and border issues, and he'll have all kinds of options as an FA in a bit over a year.  From his point of view, staying here might not be the top option.  If we can believe Serevalli, it sounds like management has discussed these issues with Miller's camp and are trying to make a deal that will maximize return for Vancouver and minimize disruption for Miller.  That would be the right way to handle it. 

As for the "window" part of it, it's impossible to know in advance exactly when that would be.  Some guys peak in their mid-20s, others in their early 30s.  Just look at the difference between Hughes and Pettersson right now.  If Petey were on the same developmental curve as Hughes, our window would already be open.  We hope Hoglander and Podkolzin are going to improve their finishing and not just drive play, but who knows?  Cup-winning teams do tend to be veteran-heavy but some (Chicago 2010) were less so and all had a mix of ages.  Timing of career years and injuries play a big role:  there's more than a bit of luck in that.  If your team is declining you might want to take your chances and re-load, but if it's on the rise, that's a pretty big risk.  

Miller is a franchise player.  Moving him voluntarily would be a mistake:  you typically have about a 10% chance of winning or breaking even on those trades.  But if your hand is forced, you do it, and that could well be the situation.  If it happens, we'll still come out ahead of the 1st and 3rd he cost us so I'm going to try to stay zen about it and enjoy watching him play for us while he's still here.  But as a fan with an emotional investment in the team, you have to love a guy like Miller.  His fingerprints are all over the team, particularly the heart they've shown in the last couple of games he's been out of the lineup.  Let's hope that holds up if and when he's gone for good.

Yeah if he's going to leave anyway in 2 years, which seems as likely or more so than not, the only solution is to trade him. Huge moment for the franchise. Need to cash in big time.

[BPA]

Canucks can probably have talks with Miller on his intentions.  No contract extensions can be made until the offseason.

 

What if Millers says “I like it here and want to win here.”  Then discussion turns to salary and he says “I’d like to be paid my worth”

 

His worth is at least $8.5M but more likely $9M.  And term as well since this is most likely be his last big contract.

 

Last thing we need is a Jeff Skinner contract.

 

 

[SilentSam]

41 minutes ago, Pbhatti00 said:

Makes total sense to trade miller now while his value is high. This team won't be contending for a cup anytime soon, and can probably make the playoffs next season with the return they get for him. By the time we are contenders (if we ever get there), he will be 32-33. Trade him to a team that can offer a youth package including a young top 4 RHD that fits our core's age. Potential trading partners that that have a lot youth/picks to offer and will be making playoff pushes: NYR, LA , Ana. Feel like the Rangers are a perfect fit. Hopefully management doesn't mess this one up and sign him to a long term deal. 

The off setting argument can be made that we have to extend or give a 7.5 m? Qualifying offer to Boeser to retain him , or he himself walks away for nothing basically.

Given Boesers situation is timing related,  and we have Miller for another season.

I personally think Boeser is more of a concern for management right now than Miller.

 

[KKnight]

1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

What about something different (other than NYR), the money sort of works

 

to FLA: Miller

to VAN: Hornqvist (25%), Tippett and a 1st (2022)

 

I'd say FLA's chances of winning their first Cup increase greatly with Miller in their forward group.

 

The Canucks get another 1st and Tippett (22) to join the young core. Hornqvist (35) is old, but he can still play and brings some veteran snarl. He has this and next year left. 

 

Could the Canucks get more?  Maybe also a 2nd (2023)?

 

 

Lundell would have to be involved. 

[Pbhatti00]

3 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

The off setting argument can be made that we have to extend or give a 7.5 m? Qualifying offer to Boeser to retain him , or he himself walks away for nothing basically.

Given Boesers situation is timing related,  and we have Miller for another season.

I personally think Boeser is more of a concern for management right now than Miller.

 

7.5 million is too much for Boeser right now for sure, but he could grow into that contract. I feel like keeping Miller is a risk...losing the potential of such a good return. Maybe there is a possibility that they trade both? Resets things significantly, opens up a lot of cap space and we'd get a big return. 

[HOFsedins]

TBH us trading Miller would be telling the team that they arent ready to compete. Bo and Petey have made it clear they want to win NOW. I said this many times. It would be a mistake to trade Miller. Boeser on the other hand...

[Gurn]

8 minutes ago, HOFsedins said:

Bo and Petey have made it clear they want to win NOW.

Funny, because Petey, up until recently, has been playing and scoring like he didn't care if he ever won a game.

And if they want to win now- I'd suggest moving both of them to a team that could win it all, now.

[D.B Cooper]

2 hours ago, CJ44 said:

How about this year? and 16 goals the year before that doesn't constitute a big pay day either. How much would you pay him to re-sign?

You said past couple years.   
I think you are wrong.  Last year he was great. 
This year is very different.  
Id offer him 6.5 at the most. 

[HOFsedins]

9 minutes ago, gurn said:

Funny, because Petey, up until recently, has been playing and scoring like he didn't care if he ever won a game.

And if they want to win now- I'd suggest moving both of them to a team that could win it all, now.

What Im trying to say is, if you trade Miller now, that will affect resigning Petey and Bo guranteed. Bo has put up with alot of losing and us trading away our top player right now is not going to help.

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, HOFsedins said:

What Im trying to say is, if you trade Miller now, that will affect resigning Petey and Bo guranteed. Bo has put up with alot of losing and us trading away our top player right now is not going to help.

If we extend Miller (cap cost 7.5) will there be enough cap room in a balanced lineup to sign Bo too?  That's a lot of money tied up in three centers.  

[SilentSam]

1 minute ago, HOFsedins said:

What Im trying to say is, if you trade Miller now, that will affect resigning Petey and Bo guranteed. Bo has put up with alot of losing and us trading away our top player right now is not going to help.

This is part of the reason I think Miller, if he wants to stay,.  Is worth so much more to the Canucks .  He is the perfect vet / presence/ leader that this team has missed for many years..   and will be able to leave his fingerprints of intensity on many others to come.

There is no one in the room with that same enthusiasm if he is moved.… and thinking it will come back in a trade is fantasy.

[Maniwaki Canuck]

35 minutes ago, BPA said:

Canucks can probably have talks with Miller on his intentions.  No contract extensions can be made until the offseason.

 

What if Millers says “I like it here and want to win here.”  Then discussion turns to salary and he says “I’d like to be paid my worth”

 

His worth is at least $8.5M but more likely $9M.  And term as well since this is most likely be his last big contract.

 

Last thing we need is a Jeff Skinner contract.

 

 

Yes, this is where it gets difficult.  There does have to be a walk-away point, beyond which you start to look at what kind of return you could get for him.  I'd go to 8.5 but am not sure after that.  It's not just the raw numbers against the cap, but what kind of bar you're setting for other players who need extensions.  Same reason why Brock at 7.5 and Dickenson at 2.65 are problems.  One thing about Miller:  he's a way more complete player than Skinner and way less likely to underperform his next contract to that degree.

[KyGuy123]

Lundell and Lafrenier are names we should not expect at all, adding to them is insane. 
People need to temper their expectations.

[JM_]

2 hours ago, kanucks25 said:

Yes, it's a tricky situation. Based on his performance so far this year, Boeser is not worth his QO.

 

Problem is there is little incentive for Miller to sign before he hits free agency.

 

And if we're punting this to the off-season, we lose quite a bit of trade value because now the team that acquires him only has him for 1 year instead of 1.5~.

 

Tough situation for the new management team. They have some tough decisions to make and are evaluating the team in a weird year with our best player (arguably) having an off-year which throws everything out of whack.

yup its not easy. As far as incentive goes, I would guess those come down to some basic personal questions. Does his family want to make a life here? does he think he can win here? does his family have more access to help at home in NY? lots of legitimate reasons for JT to want to move on, or stay. 

 

[Harold Drunken]

17 minutes ago, D.B Cooper said:

You said past couple years.   
I think you are wrong.  Last year he was great. 
This year is very different.  
Id offer him 6.5 at the most. 

I said past few years actually, but either way it's been somewhat inconsistent. I'd still offer him something to stay but it all depends on price, $6.5 seems reasonable to me but 19 points in 35 games and a -6 is tough to justify big money, at last years pace I'd say no problem. 6 to 6.5 is reasonable for sure, we'll see if he management agree....