Where does JTM rank?

[DrJockitch]

13 minutes ago, BarnBurner said:

Whatever. That wasn't even his contract year. 

 

I agree, watch what you pay at that age, but that doesn't take away from the reality that he is one of the top players in this league. 

 

Next year will tell the real story. 

Hope so. The numbers I quoted for him were at the top of that list. 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Good discussion OP...  

 

Johnny Gaudreau is about to turn 29 in a couple of weeks, 7 years x 9.75 mil.  

Mika Zibanejad is 29, 8 years x 8.5 mil.  

Gabe Landeskog was 28 when he signed for 8 years x 7 mil. 

Tomas Hertl is 28, 8 years x 8.1 mil  

 

What I believe would be a fair contract for both sides is something along the lines of 

6 years x 8.25 mil.  

 

I would also be happy with this deal.  JT Miller was far and away our best skater last year.  If we do this, then Bo Horvat can naturally fall in line with a 7 mil/year extension.  

That’s a very good offer for JTM.  I do t know if JR/Allvin will go to 50 mil.  But if they do, and Miller declines, then Miller is making a big mistake.  July 1,2023 Miller isn’t getting that much. 

[MikeyD]

Ideal contract: 6 years, 7.25 million.

 

Do I think it'll happen? Nope. I think we will be looking closer to 6 years 8.5 and I think that's a slightly problematic contract come his later years. I think you need to keep his AAV in the 7's and you need to try to keep the years as low as possible. His style of play won't hold up well when his body starts to slow down and not recover quite as quickly. 

[Got the Babych]

1 hour ago, BarnBurner said:

Personally, even though he's turning 30, I'd put JT first or second. 

 

He's scoring over a PPG, plays hard, doesn't disappear when it matters most, excellent at face-offs and can kill penalties. 

I wouldn't put him that high, but he is that important on this team. The important part is, I don't think the league puts him that high on the list. He flew under the radar for many years (we know the reasons for that) and had his career year (so far) at 29. 

[Got the Babych]

10 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Ideal contract: 6 years, 7.25 million.

 

Do I think it'll happen? Nope. I think we will be looking closer to 6 years 8.5 and I think that's a slightly problematic contract come his later years. I think you need to keep his AAV in the 7's and you need to try to keep the years as low as possible. His style of play won't hold up well when his body starts to slow down and not recover quite as quickly. 

Yeah, all things considered and given our "cap structure" a number that starts with 7 shouldn't be seen as preposterous. But, I don't think it happens and would be fine with the low 8s for 6 years.

[BarnBurner]

11 minutes ago, Got the Babych said:

I wouldn't put him that high, but he is that important on this team. The important part is, I don't think the league puts him that high on the list. He flew under the radar for many years (we know the reasons for that) and had his career year (so far) at 29. 

Like I said in another post, next year will tell the real story. 

[Elias Pettersson]

He should get around $50 million total.  Canucks can decide how they want to split that up.  Kadri's new deal will also factor into the equation.  Miller should get more than Kadri.

[Got the Babych]

31 minutes ago, Alflives said:

That’s a very good offer for JTM.  I do t know if JR/Allvin will go to 50 mil.  But if they do, and Miller declines, then Miller is making a big mistake.  July 1,2023 Miller isn’t getting that much. 

Agreed.

[wildcam]

Think Miller will get serious offer at 47 million --  6 years X 7.8 million

[204CanucksFan]

I keep seeing everyone suggesting something along the lines of 8.5ish over 6 years is fair. Any one who thinks JT is signing a contract for anything other than 7 or 8 years is dreaming. He will wait and walk away in free agency without giving it a second thought to make that big contract money for an extra year or two (and someone WILL pay it). 

 

This team needs to deal him within the first month or two of the season. I have no problem waiting for the right offer, that's exactly what Colorado did when they traded Duchene. But if this situation persists past November it will become a major distraction and lead to an untenable situation in the locker room.

 

It's literally the exact reason Winnipeg should of traded Wheeler instead of signing him to a giant anchor of a contract. As a Manitoba resident all I hear is how badly the fans want him gone now and what a mistake the signing was. And if anyone else here is familiar with the other reports from the Jets locker room, they are REALLY regretting not moving on when they had a chance because they know now that his contract is completely immovable now and nearly buy out proof 

[Alflives]

7 minutes ago, 204CanucksFan said:

I keep seeing everyone suggesting something along the lines of 8.5ish over 6 years is fair. Any one who thinks JT is signing a contract for anything other than 7 or 8 years is dreaming. He will wait and walk away in free agency without giving it a second thought to make that big contract money for an extra year or two (and someone WILL pay it). 

 

This team needs to deal him within the first month or two of the season. I have no problem waiting for the right offer, that's exactly what Colorado did when they traded Duchene. But if this situation persists past November it will become a major distraction and lead to an untenable situation in the locker room.

 

It's literally the exact reason Winnipeg should of traded Wheeler instead of signing him to a giant anchor of a contract. As a Manitoba resident all I hear is how badly the fans want him gone now and what a mistake the signing was. And if anyone else here is familiar with the other reports from the Jets locker room, they are REALLY regretting not moving on when they had a chance because they know now that his contract is completely immovable now and nearly buy out proof 

It’s looking unrealistic for Miller to expect (as a 30 year old UFA) a term longer than six years.  

In the flat cap era has a 30+ UFA forward got a contract longer than 6 years and more than 8 per?  

July 1, 2023 Miller is will be very lucky to get an offer over 48 mil.

[204CanucksFan]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

It’s looking unrealistic for Miller to expect (as a 30 year old UFA) a term longer than six years.  

In the flat cap era has a 30+ UFA forward got a contract longer than 6 years and more than 8 per?  

July 1, 2023 Miller is will be very lucky to get an offer over 48 mil.

Mika Zibanejad signed his contract almost a year ago, his management knew he'd be 29 when the contract started, it was offered in the Covid salary cap era and they have nearly identical career stats. Both players are big, strong faceoff winning machines as centers and Mika's contract, that starts this year, is 8 years at $8.5 mil. Miller will get at least $8.5 for 7 years as a UFA and he knows it

[MrCanuck94]

Miller - 8-9 mil AAV

 

Horvat - 5.5-6 mil AAV

[BarnBurner]

9 minutes ago, MrCanuck94 said:

Miller - 8-9 mil AAV

 

Horvat - 5.5-6 mil AAV

I'd say at least 7 mil AAV for Horvat. But if you're right, we got ourselves an amazing deal. 

[204CanucksFan]

13 minutes ago, MrCanuck94 said:

Miller - 8-9 mil AAV

 

Horvat - 5.5-6 mil AAV

Miller is probably spot on, Horvat will probably be more like 6.5-7 on an 8 year deal, and I have no problem paying him that. He's 3 years younger than Miller and the hardest thing to do in the NHL is score goals. Since the 2017-18 season Horvat is 20th among centers in goals and 40th among all skaters in the NHL and he did that while having a never ending, rotating cast of wingers and spending more time lining up against the other teams top line than any other center on the team. Horvat also did it well winning more faceoffs than any center in the league not named Patrice Bergeron

[MrCanuck94]

12 minutes ago, BarnBurner said:

I'd say at least 7 mil AAV for Horvat. But if you're right, we got ourselves an amazing deal. 

 

9 minutes ago, 204CanucksFan said:

Miller is probably spot on, Horvat will probably be more like 6.5-7 on an 8 year deal, and I have no problem paying him that. He's 3 years younger than Miller and the hardest thing to do in the NHL is score goals. Since the 2017-18 season Horvat is 20th among centers in goals and 40th among all skaters in the NHL and he did that while having a never ending, rotating cast of wingers and spending more time lining up against the other teams top line than any other center on the team. Horvat also did it well winning more faceoffs than any center in the league not named Patrice Bergeron

Horvat has a rotating cast of wingers because he's not the type of C that makes his wingers better, you have to find the perfect fit whether it's more grinding type wingers or a playmaker/2 way winger.

 

At the end of the day, unless he takes another step in his development this season, he's a 60 point center, average play maker and average defensively. If he signs 8 years, there's a good chance that he'll take a step back and be a 3C for his age 32-35 years, is that really worth it for a 7 mill C? Or is JT more worth a 8 mill contract because even with a step back, he would be a 2C for around 8 mill and he makes his line mates better and drives play?

 

I'd argue Horvat's value comparables are RNH, Strome and Trochek. Sure he's better at faceoffs, but is that a 2 million value difference?

 

RNH is the best contract comparable when it comes to production and signing a 8 year deal with the team that drafted you in your later 20's.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, MrCanuck94 said:

 

Horvat has a rotating cast of wingers because he's not the type of C that makes his wingers better, you have to find the perfect fit whether it's more grinding type wingers or a playmaker/2 way winger.

 

At the end of the day, unless he takes another step in his development this season, he's a 60 point center, average play maker and average defensively. If he signs 8 years, there's a good chance that he'll take a step back and be a 3C for his age 32-35 years, is that really worth it for a 7 mill C? Or is JT more worth a 8 mill contract because even with a step back, he would be a 2C for around 8 mill and he makes his line mates better and drives play?

 

I'd argue Horvat's value comparables are RNH, Strome and Trochek. Sure he's better at faceoffs, but is that a 2 million value difference?

 

RNH is the best contract comparable when it comes to production and signing a 8 year deal with the team that drafted you in your later 20's.

Sign Miller; trade Bo.  And Bo likely has more trade value too.  I imagine a team like Buffalo would pay a lot to get Bo. 

[erkayloomeh]

I wouldn't trade jt for jg.  Jt brings more to the table than he does and the age difference isn't that far off. 

So I'd pay him the same contract but to the same age. So shorter term. 

[Got the Babych]

3 hours ago, 204CanucksFan said:

Mika Zibanejad signed his contract almost a year ago, his management knew he'd be 29 when the contract started, it was offered in the Covid salary cap era and they have nearly identical career stats. Both players are big, strong faceoff winning machines as centers and Mika's contract, that starts this year, is 8 years at $8.5 mil. Miller will get at least $8.5 for 7 years as a UFA and he knows it

It's a valid comparison, but Mika is a pure center and scores more goals. Points definitely matter, but I don't think JT gets Zibanejad money at FA.

[DownUndaCanuck]

My big question is - how does his production go next year? If he drops to an 80 point pace, what happens to his contract, or better, trade value (more tradeable)? I doubt he does better than last year but if he's playing with a stronger Petey, you never know...

 

I doubt he maintains the same 100pt play though.