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Optimal 22-23 Season Composition for Success

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nuckfanfromafrica

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Just heard a report today that Canucks are  not much better than last year and not to expect too much. Calgary got better, LV is healed up, Oilers will score their way through the division, LA improved. The eastern media will nay nay our improvements again, and we'll have to slog our way through the season to prove ourselves. 

Our ace in the hole this year I think will be Spence, giving support and days off for Demko especially down the stretch. Again looks like defense by committee. But I really like the our bottom 6 now. 

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5 hours ago, Hairy Kneel said:

Just heard a report today that Canucks are  not much better than last year and not to expect too much. Calgary got better, LV is healed up, Oilers will score their way through the division, LA improved. The eastern media will nay nay our improvements again, and we'll have to slog our way through the season to prove ourselves. 

Our ace in the hole this year I think will be Spence, giving support and days off for Demko especially down the stretch. Again looks like defense by committee. But I really like the our bottom 6 now. 

Yeah it blows me away that media will say Calgary got better with certainty but Vancouver is still the same team lol. 

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I appreciate all of the effort that went into this post, and I'm warming up to the idea of moving Hughes to his off side in order to play with OEL. On paper that could be one of the better pairings in the league, assuming Hughes is just as effective on his off side. 

 

That being said, with the huge strides Hughes took on the defensive side of things last season playing the left side, I do worry that suddenly switching him over might undo some of that. 

 

I also worry about so many of our forwards playing their off wings full time as well. 

 

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On 7/28/2022 at 10:42 PM, ButterBean said:

Here’s to hoping Bo and Boeser can regain that chemistry that has been somewhat lost the last couple years. If that combo does’t work out I’d pair Boeser with Miller, thought they did good work together when Petey was out.

Boeser will have a breakout year on a line with Horvat & Kuzmenko

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Wow lot of work there, maybe the Canucks analytical team will read this one day...

 

Moving Hughes to his off-side is an interesting idea but I think he'll really struggle defensively then, defending on his off-side and skating back especially. I think the pairing would be better balanced with simply Hughes on the left and even a bottom pairing guy like Dermott or Schenn on the right side to pretty much just sit back and play it safe. I'd be tempted to re-visit Myers with Hughes, they had some success at the start, then really struggled at some points, but it would make sense to play our top RD with our top LD.

 

As for the forward lineups I think Bruce is going to juggle them a LOT. We've still got to trade one winger surely to get under the cap and I think that will be Garland, but I think expect to see just about every winger play with every center. We may start the season rolling 3 lines, with Petey, Miller and Bo each at center, or we may see Petey and Miler on the same line again, Bo as 2C and then Lazar or Dickinson (cringe) as 3C to load-up (especially late trailing in games). We were arguably at our best when we rolled 3 lines when Petey struggled and played with Podkolzin and Garland because teams just couldn't defend that as a 3rd line, and that's how good teams play to be fair. If we run with Horvat as a checking 3rd line center who can somehow eat up 18 minutes a night we'd be hard to beat.

 

I think a big sticking point will be Martin who will steal around 20 games from Demko easily. This was a big reason we sucked last year, even under Bruce. Halak was dreadful and Demko got over-worked, simple as that, which cost us some big points down the stretch. If we can keep Demko to the magic number of 60 games I think he'll be solid in all of them and you never know how good Spencer is going to be. Having a fresh Demko down the stretch will make a huge difference in our points in the standings later in the season.

 

Obviously defence is the big hole on this team. You can argue we've got the best goalies in the division. We've got some of the best centers who have size and play well defensively. We now have some of the best winger depth in the division as well after adding 2 strong wingers this off-season. But our big weakness is defensive quality. We've got Hughes who is a top-3 defenceman in the division. Then we've got an ageing OEL and Myers who will hopefully not drop off too much next year, and I'd say they're "good" but not great top-4 defencemen. After that it's a bunch of bottom guys. If we defend as a group we've got a good shot, but we'll have to rotate bottom guys like Schenn, Rathbone, Dermott and Burroughs (and maybe De Hann) in and out of the lineup well depending on our opponent. I'd really like to see Dermott get a top-4 chance, he did excel at times with the Leafs when thrust into the position so you never know. He's cheap, versatile, can play tough and can skate well. Lacks the top quality but I'd like to see him play with Hughes at times. Rathbone might be the wild card this season - he should be ready to play on a 2nd unit PP and put up some points, but whether Bruce deploys him as a puck mover or wants him to play more defensively on a 3rd pairing is undecided. 

 

It'll be an interesting year, the Pacific division only got better this off-season and the Canucks seem to have not made many big moves, but I think the biggest thing will simply be playing a full year under Bruce. We were a top-10 team under Boudreau last season and I think we can be again this season, we just have to try and patch up those defensive holes by forwards tracking back and defending well and of course big time goaltending.

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  • 2 weeks later...

This was a well presented and thought out thread.   Good job op!   If your curious about our various line combos for the forward group, especially the top nine given our fourth line is pretty much a gimmie, a couple things about last years.   Hogs EP Podz was the best line and it wasn't even close - as for end results only.    Very small sample size though, only about sixty minutes played.  4-.5 (GF/GA) there abouts.     Wonder if that is reunited.   

 

Pearson also seemed to improve each line he was on.   Made the bottom line, again much better.    Go figure.

 

EP Miller Brock was actually not good.   The lotto line is now toast i'm pretty sure anyways.  

 

Garland of course was good on most of his lines,  Miller and EP too for the most part. 

 

Don't know where i posted this and can't find the data lol.   But it's there.   One thing is noted, all solid playoff teams have at least one line that plays 400 minutes together.    Our biggest line numbers were just over 200 - Motte, Highmore and Lammy, and it was a very effective one too.    Just goes to show that we had quite the blender last year ... which is understandable, two coaches, both trying to find the magic in the bottle. 

 

Im fine with QHs moving to the right side.   At least we can finally put this "we can't ever compete without a RHD" stuff to rest, if only for that alone please Bruce and co read this thread!  

 

Personally, we won't ever get it all under the cap, not with our taxes.     Only team that does is TB really.    COL just won without a number one goalie.    That said they sure had a lot of everything else didn't they?   EDM doesn't have a top tier D...or a goalie.    CAL is actually pretty well balanced for sure - they do have a bit of everything, i'm not so sure modern players will last with Sutter as a bench boss.   Something is stinky over there.    Guess we find out soon enough.   LA is treading water with their re-tool...meh...waiting for their rebuild to actually get going with Quick, Doughty and Kopitar providing what they can really...ANA couple more years of pain left for them.     Vegas?   Maybe ... maybe not.  

 

We can find holes in pretty much all but 2-3 teams (TB, FLD,  and COL)... COL gets a pass.   Too good everywhere else, modern day Detroit even with Cloutier in net!  

 

I'm glad you pumped Myers tires.   We will miss him when he's gone.   Until his skating goes down (so far it has not at all), he's going to be an effective RHD - hope after this deal (unless we upgrade with Severson),  he re-signs like Edler did in LA ... a cheap option on the bottom pairing.   Actually hoped Edler would have done what he did, with us ... goes to show that Edler was always about the money a bit doesn't it?   LA lol.. why LA?    Just to piss us off, like CAL Canucks.    Thought maybe with the Sedins and Allvin team Sweden would have brought him home...oh well there is always next year. 

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On 8/20/2022 at 6:00 AM, DownUndaCanuck said:

Wow lot of work there, maybe the Canucks analytical team will read this one day...

 

Moving Hughes to his off-side is an interesting idea but I think he'll really struggle defensively then, defending on his off-side and skating back especially. I think the pairing would be better balanced with simply Hughes on the left and even a bottom pairing guy like Dermott or Schenn on the right side to pretty much just sit back and play it safe. I'd be tempted to re-visit Myers with Hughes, they had some success at the start, then really struggled at some points, but it would make sense to play our top RD with our top LD.

 

As for the forward lineups I think Bruce is going to juggle them a LOT. We've still got to trade one winger surely to get under the cap and I think that will be Garland, but I think expect to see just about every winger play with every center. We may start the season rolling 3 lines, with Petey, Miller and Bo each at center, or we may see Petey and Miler on the same line again, Bo as 2C and then Lazar or Dickinson (cringe) as 3C to load-up (especially late trailing in games). We were arguably at our best when we rolled 3 lines when Petey struggled and played with Podkolzin and Garland because teams just couldn't defend that as a 3rd line, and that's how good teams play to be fair. If we run with Horvat as a checking 3rd line center who can somehow eat up 18 minutes a night we'd be hard to beat.

 

I think a big sticking point will be Martin who will steal around 20 games from Demko easily. This was a big reason we sucked last year, even under Bruce. Halak was dreadful and Demko got over-worked, simple as that, which cost us some big points down the stretch. If we can keep Demko to the magic number of 60 games I think he'll be solid in all of them and you never know how good Spencer is going to be. Having a fresh Demko down the stretch will make a huge difference in our points in the standings later in the season.

 

Obviously defence is the big hole on this team. You can argue we've got the best goalies in the division. We've got some of the best centers who have size and play well defensively. We now have some of the best winger depth in the division as well after adding 2 strong wingers this off-season. But our big weakness is defensive quality. We've got Hughes who is a top-3 defenceman in the division. Then we've got an ageing OEL and Myers who will hopefully not drop off too much next year, and I'd say they're "good" but not great top-4 defencemen. After that it's a bunch of bottom guys. If we defend as a group we've got a good shot, but we'll have to rotate bottom guys like Schenn, Rathbone, Dermott and Burroughs (and maybe De Hann) in and out of the lineup well depending on our opponent. I'd really like to see Dermott get a top-4 chance, he did excel at times with the Leafs when thrust into the position so you never know. He's cheap, versatile, can play tough and can skate well. Lacks the top quality but I'd like to see him play with Hughes at times. Rathbone might be the wild card this season - he should be ready to play on a 2nd unit PP and put up some points, but whether Bruce deploys him as a puck mover or wants him to play more defensively on a 3rd pairing is undecided. 

 

It'll be an interesting year, the Pacific division only got better this off-season and the Canucks seem to have not made many big moves, but I think the biggest thing will simply be playing a full year under Bruce. We were a top-10 team under Boudreau last season and I think we can be again this season, we just have to try and patch up those defensive holes by forwards tracking back and defending well and of course big time goaltending.

Yes.   To me playoffs with Miller is better then a bag of pucks and or signing him to a ridiculous deal.    And would really like to see what we can do with fans and this team more or less as is.   I don't think that's a terrible thing at all.   It's the second season that matters.   And as a young adult, the early 90's team even going back to 1989 with the 80's core last gasp ... once you had a Linden it was like an automatic bye to the next round.    Horvat scored 10 goals in 17 playoff games (they count the play-in round as playoff games and rightly so)...he was on pace to pass Lindens 12 in 1994.   And maybe even challenge Bure's 16.     EP and QHs were babies still yet survived, and Brock was decent too.    Of course Demko found a totally different level.   

 

At this stage in the game playoffs need to be the goal each and every year, even if we have some big decisions to make.   With a bit of luck, and solid tweaking along the way, this could be the start of a decade of playoffs for us more or less (maybe a down year here and there)....and playoff reps matter in this 32 year league.    Bruce's coaching was of course great.    The players themselves now know what level of intensity they need to bring each and every game.   I'm bullish about our chances with Miller in the lineup...EP is close to ready to take over the reigns but not quite there yet.    Price of admission and value of trading our first and a 3rd is paid in full.   And can't wait to see how these guys do.   Modest PK improvements.   Our prospect pool got a little better as well.  

 

Depends which season you think is true.   Greens or Bruce's.   Thing is, even with Green our 5 x 5 hockey was decent (and became very good after).    That's what wins cups.   Special teams of course matter.    And our PK past both COL and FLD's under Bruce lol... our PP?   Good for fourth in the league - and first down the stretch (over 30%, 26.9% overall, that's one of the best this teams ever had all-time, better then the Sedins!)...

 

This team is very easy to like.   Sedin teams struggled with finding wingers (cap restraints)...WCE era one great line then meh - solid D, Cloutier was good in the regular season, terrible in the post season (worst SP all-time any goalie with 20 or more post season games)... since the cap started, we've never had this much forward depth.   It's not even close really.    Sure our right side is suspect.   Move QHs lol then it's our left side correct?    Not so much.   Rathbone is ready to go, and built like a little tank.  

Edited by IBatch
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Lots of good analysis but I’m not a fan of your ep hoglander mik line. You put ur most offensively gifted forward with a guy with 18 and 32 points and hope one will bounce back and the other have another gear?? While giving all the players with much higher offensive potential to miller and Horvat. 
 

so mikheyev adds defensive presence. Ep is a good defender himself.. so are we trying to turn this into a shutdown line? If anything mikheyev should play with miller since miller willingness to play defense is questionable at best.. 

 

if anything I put ep at least podkolzin or kuzmenko before I put him with hoglander or mikheyev. Kuzmenko play making ability should make EP a threat with his ability to finish. 
 

I also find it unlikely Pearson Dickinson will be your rotating forward on the 4th line. 6mil+ rotating in and out of the press box? Ya I get you guys have a hate on Pearson for whatever reason.. but he’s as productive as mikheyev and make quite a bit less.. so why is he all of a sudden a candidate to rotate into the press box?

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Excellent well thought out post!!!  Lots of work put into it.  I like your lines... Especially the 4th line!!!  I'm very excited to see a very effect bottom 3rd and 4th line... Might end up being the best in the league this coming year.  We haven't had a 3rd or 4th line thus good since 2010-11. 

 

This team will be better all around and should make the playoffs... But it will be harder because the Pacific division as a whole got better this off season.  As long a Demko doesn't have a major injury during the season, we'll be in the show come playoff time.  

 

Glad we've got Miller... Hope we keep him for the season and playoffs then let him walk.  His contract will create problems for our cap.  Need room to resigning Petey, Podz, Bo and ability to sign high end FA's or quality hockey trades to get the push for the cup in a couple of seasons.

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I think the Canucks are a far better team than a lot of people think. Our only real area of weakness is Right Defense.

 

We had a horrible start last year under Green and it was pretty clear that the player had quit on him and were really frustrated by the structure.

 

Pettersson had a horrible start and as we now know, he wasn't actually healthy and ready to start the season. He really didn't start to play like the guy we drafted, till well past the 1/2 way mark of the season.

 

October

10 Games played, 1 goal, 3 assists 4 points

November

14 games played, 3 goals, 4 assists 7 points

December

10 games played 2 goals, 4 assists 6 points

January

12 games played 5 goals, 2 assists 7 points

February

10 games played, 6 goals, 8 assists 14 points

March

12 games played. 5 goals, 6 assists 11 points

April

13 games played, 10 goals, 9 assists 19 points

 

He actually didn't really hit his stride until into February and then started getting better with each game.

 

We are stronger up front, better overall bottom 6, we are solid in net and down the left side of defense.

 

If Pettersson shows up healthy and ready to play, we will make the playoffs this next season. 

 

 

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I'm definitely on board with OEL/Hughes together, only problem becomes what to do with the 2nd pair, maybe Dermott/Myers.

 

(Edit: I know u have Hague, but I doubt that comes to fruition. Maybe they circle back on de Haan)

 

I think I'd keep Petey & Brock together, but I like the addition of Mikheyev to Petey's line.

 

With Boeser & Petey he'd provide a combo of attributes neither have individually (strength along the boards + speed forechecking) & his job would clearly be more of the grunt work.

 

Podz might work there too but I'd love to see Ilya get first crack. Podz/Garland looked to be building some chemistry with JT, agree with that as a line.

 

Good work on the post OP!

 

 

Edited by Smashian Kassian
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/29/2022 at 9:46 AM, wai_lai416 said:

Lots of good analysis but I’m not a fan of your ep hoglander mik line. You put ur most offensively gifted forward with a guy with 18 and 32 points and hope one will bounce back and the other have another gear?? While giving all the players with much higher offensive potential to miller and Horvat. 
 

so mikheyev adds defensive presence. Ep is a good defender himself.. so are we trying to turn this into a shutdown line? If anything mikheyev should play with miller since miller willingness to play defense is questionable at best.. 

 

if anything I put ep at least podkolzin or kuzmenko before I put him with hoglander or mikheyev. Kuzmenko play making ability should make EP a threat with his ability to finish. 
 

I also find it unlikely Pearson Dickinson will be your rotating forward on the 4th line. 6mil+ rotating in and out of the press box? Ya I get you guys have a hate on Pearson for whatever reason.. but he’s as productive as mikheyev and make quite a bit less.. so why is he all of a sudden a candidate to rotate into the press box?

The idea was more predicated on creating a balanced line composition based on:

  • Team defense (not your traditional 1 or 2 offensive line, a checking line & energy line). A top 9 that can score and defend equally.  Best defense is based on possession not a checking line pinned in their zone for entirety of their shift. Each line features at least 2 defensively responsible forwards, player with speed to push play offensively & cover defensively). at least a true playmaker on each line 
  • Pettersson is most dangerous when he is the alpha and has the puck on his stick pushing play on his line. He has the ability to make his line mates better. His defensive awareness along with Mikheyev's fit within that idea of atleast 2 defensively responsible forwards. Hoglander has an extremely underrated offensive skill, playmaking ability, creativity that complements Pettersson nicely. He has the speed to keep up with Mik & Petey. The line is a continuation of Podz - Petey - Hogz line with Podz moving to Millers line to add more balance.
  • Podkolzin & Garland are your 2 defensively responsible forwards on Millers line that are able to get back on D with speed and tenacity. Miller as your alpha on the line and Garland as your second playmaker.
  • Kuzmenko as your true playmaker on Horvat & Boeser's line. He brings an element that we have missed for a while - ability to setup plays from behind the net. Horvat around the crease and Boeser on the wing ready to accept setups.
  • i like Pearson and think he is a good player. He just unfortunately lacks speed. We just have more forward depth now and ability to earn a spot should not be based on salary. I personally think Dickinson (sp) is a better fit if he has a bounce back season.
  • Our defense will be better with right forward deployment that fits within the team defense mantra - retaining possession (less dump & chase), forwards supporting Dmen when without the puck and on breakouts for better zone control & exits. Mobile Defense with puck mover on each D pair. 

 

Edited by nuckfanfromafrica
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