[Signing] Canucks re-sign J.T. Miller

[DeNiro]

1 minute ago, Gawdzukes said:

That's exactly what I expect will happen. We need to do everything in our power to improve there. Unfortunately that means trading 1st rounders probably. One of these decades we just have to draft a couple RD's early. I would be totally fine using all of our picks on RD next year just because I'm frustrated lol. 

I mean we could gamble with our 1st in the next few drafts like we did with Miller. That worked out for us.

 

A conditional 2024 pick and hope that it ends up being 20 or later. I’d be okay with that for the right player.

[aGENT]

6 hours ago, Pure961089 said:

I don't think that's their mindset. Not everyone has a Demko or a Hughes, or 3 top line centers. On the other hand riding a hot goalie in the playoffs isn't unheard of.  The Canucks have a lot more going for them than some would like to admit. 

 

I haven't seen anyone suggest we're a bad team. Most seen to think we're at least a bubble team that might win a round or two.

 

Does that sound like people selling the team short?

 

At the same time, does it put the team in the same contender stratosphere as teams like Tampa, Colorado, Carolina...?

 

Again:

 

13 hours ago, aGENT said:

I'm not sure what is so controversial or difficult to understand about suggesting that a team coming out of a rebuild, with pretty clear roster holes and succession issues on D, who's own President has stated it needs a couple years of work to become a contender...

 

...Needs a couple years of work to become a contender...

 

Blasphemy!

 

4 hours ago, johngould21 said:

Who in '82 thought the Canucks were going to the SCF? They got hot at the end of the season, a 9 game win streak, and rode a hot goalie. Didn't hurt that the Kings knocked off the Coilers and that powerhouse team either. But, Gradin, Smyl, and team toughness got them to the final.

 

Nobody. Because they weren't a contender, even with hindsight. Did they win? Again, this is exactly the "not a contender" sides' argument. Cinderella teams that go on lucky runs, don't actually win cups. Let's not do that. And this was long before the cap as well, which has only made the task more difficult.

 

1 hour ago, Mustard Tiger said:

What will happen if Miller puts up 100 points and we make the show? I know what's going to happen. Everyone complaining is going to jump over the fence and act like this never happened haha

 

See above. Nobody has issues with this deal because we don't think Miller is a good player TODAY. Or that the team isn't good enough to maybe make the playoffs and win a round or two. What we don't appear to be at present is a deep, multi playoff run team like Colorado or Tampa that people actually predict will be in the final, for likely multiple years, with multiple chances at cups. Ie: a cup contender.

 

See above why I don't understand why this is remotely controversial or hard to grasp.

[Attila Umbrus]

2 hours ago, AV. said:

For many years now, it is clear to see from history and all the data afforded to us, there is no cup winner without some degree of sustained success surrounding their cup winning period.  This comes in the form of multiple playoff appearances prior to getting the job done (Boston, Washington, St. Louis, Colorado, Tampa Bay), or, for the real fortunate ones who avoid the extended relative period of suffering, a cup win, followed by multiple playoff appearances, and possibly additional cups, after getting the job done the first time (Pittsburgh, Chicago, Los Angeles).  It's worth noting that teams who fall under this latter category have benefitted greatly from having ELCs and young players making cheap money to help roll things along.

The closest example of a cup winner that surprisingly doesn't fall on either side would be the 2005/06 Hurricanes.  But, as we know, they have a history of being absolute playoff demons.  Made the finals in 02, missed the next two seasons, lockout, won in 06, missed the next two seasons, made the ECF in 09.  This trend would continue all the way until as recent as 2018/19, where they missed for 9 or so seasons, but made the ECF that year on their first attempt back in the playoffs.  A clear anomaly and certainly not a model any serious team should try to emulate (even if the current President did work for them for many years).  

Needless to say, if the Canucks have actual ambitions to win a Stanley Cup, they'll have to either become a consistent playoff team first (i.e have a period of sustained success), or start a window where they somehow win outright in the initial portions.  But here's the thing:  they can't go the second route because the ELC and cheap years of core players like Pettersson, Hughes, etc are long gone, and the Canucks don't have nearly enough impact youth on cheap deals or ELCs as it stands.  So, they have little choice but to work towards being the first type of cup winner.  This is where the discourse presented by myself and many others is crucial to understand because forming a winner with this current group is a difficult task to do with many holes still remaining.  That's why this extension is critical to analyze because we aren't extending a 24 year old with his whole career ahead of him, rather, we're extending a soon-to-be 30 year old with likely 3-4 years left at his best.  Keep in mind, we'll have players coming off ELCs to extend (Kuzmenko, Podkolzin, Hoglander), as well other key core figures to extend (Petterson, Horvat).  And that's before factoring in the financial anchors holding this team back, like Dickinson, Myers, Pearson, Poolman in the short-term, and somebody OEL in the long-term.  A rising cap helps, but only marginally, and not in the way that quite a few seem to think.

It's clear by now that most championing this deal have no actual clue as to what sort of retool the Canucks would need to get done - they just keep assuming a playoff pace from last year is all the evidence needed - but based on what we know from past cup teams, it's as much as a certainty that a big retool is needed for us to go from where we're currently at to reach the levels of those cup winners.  I'm talking multiple trades to shed salary, adding proper players in positions of weakness, ensuring flawless free-agencies, drafting well enough to get immediate help from ELCs and providing capital, etc.  One might say such an impossible task to get done in such a short time, but that's the position we now find ourselves in with this extension.  We are now a "win-now" team.

So, while we can celebrate the extension today, it is paramount to realize that the expectations of this team have now changed as a result of this decision made by the franchise, and the call for patience has now significantly decreased.

Thanks, this is well explained AV. I understand your position in all this now firmly. You have some great points. We are at where we are at now and need to move forward. There is still retooling needed to be done, there will be contract hang ups, but I have faith that this will turn out in our favor. We have a very experienced head office now and I think that will pay off going through these tough waters in how to become a true cup champion.

 

I agree the "just make the playoffs" mentality is a cover up for a poor team trying to over aspire. However, you can't argue some of that mantra does hold true. It's worked for teams in the past, I always think of LA's 8th seed storm to the cup as a great example. Yes LA became a power house of their own, but it all started with the mantra of "anything can happen" if you make it to the dance...from there they built themselves beyond that point and into the contenders they eventually become and won a second cup 2 years later again. I guess my point is that it is okay to have that mantra to start, but as you alluded to you can't just keep staying in that zone if you want to be true perennial cup contenders. That's the next big challenge after that.

 

I look to Tampa, Chicago, and Pittsburgh for those models and how they built themselves past that point. IMO we have a 2 year window with the contracts we have to perform to those expectations, make the playoffs, see what happens, make some noise hopefully. Will see how it all pans out. We definitely need to shore that defense up but it''s serviceable for now, and we have a bit of time to re-tool it. As you said, it's all gotta go right...but I so far have liked JR and companies "cool hand" approach on what to do next. I actually feel there is a solid plan starting to take place, where as Benning's regime we seen a less confident front office group, getting bossed around in trades and such. I did not like that...Hello Hamhuis. I actually feel like under this regime we won't lose our assets for nothing anymore. Refreshing.

 

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Attila Umbrus

[5nothincanucksohno]

According to PJ at the Province, there is no trade protection for Miller this year. If the team is off to a bad start but Miller is playing well, does mgmt look for a big haul now that teams have cost certainty? 

[-DLC-]

Page 99 for a 99 point player.

 

Just wanted to get in on that.

 

GO JT!

[Chris12345]

6 minutes ago, 5nothincanucksohno said:

According to PJ at the Province, there is no trade protection for Miller this year. If the team is off to a bad start but Miller is playing well, does mgmt look for a big haul now that teams have cost certainty? 

No.

 

I was on the trade JT train but that's just bad business.

[-DLC-]

8 minutes ago, 5nothincanucksohno said:

According to PJ at the Province, there is no trade protection for Miller this year. If the team is off to a bad start but Miller is playing well, does mgmt look for a big haul now that teams have cost certainty? 

I don't think that would be a great idea.

 

It would mean some of our core is in trouble and abandoning them by giving up on things sends the wrong message. I mean, look at last year to see that a season can drastically change. Also...think of future signings and the insecurity of that message. JT's signed on for the long haul and to abruptly change course after signing on for stability isn't really something players would appreciate. I don't just mean him, I mean potential signings after that. Would be a bad look for the organization. 

 

It would also really show confusion and a lack of direction...they've made decisions and commitments and I feel like they have to give it a fair chance. That wouldn't be doing so.

 

 

[DeNiro]

7 minutes ago, 5nothincanucksohno said:

According to PJ at the Province, there is no trade protection for Miller this year. If the team is off to a bad start but Miller is playing well, does mgmt look for a big haul now that teams have cost certainty? 

Haha no.

 

You don’t sign a player to a 7 year deal just to trade him before the deal even kicks in. 
 

They signed this deal because they’re committed to him long term and he’s committed to the team.

 

You would be blacklisted by every agent if you pulled a move like that.

[Rindiculous]

11 hours ago, Master Mind said:

For the Rangers, I feel that their core of Shesterkin, Panarin, Zibanejad, and Fox is strong enough to give them a chance. If Shesterkin gets injured, yes they're done. But same can be said for many team's best player. For what it's worth I'm taking Carolina to come out of the division.

 

I'm the opposite on LA. I think with a healthy defense they're my pick to come out of the Pacific. Their vets are older, but still key contributors, and I think if they can make the playoffs without relying much on their youth, that they'll be even better when their prospects take the next step. Then they add in Fiala. Dallas has some good prospects that could compliment their younger players, but until they're NHL regulars, they're stuck in mediocrity.

 

I'm curious what makes you high on Minnesota. They lost Fiala, and while Rossi could help, their C depth isn't up to par with other teams. I feel like they're due to take a step back this year.

I was never really that high on Fiala personally.  Like yah he's a top 6 player, but I consider him quite inconsistent like Boeser.  The x-factor for the Wild is Kirill Kaprizov.  That guy is insane and really could be in the conversation with Mcdavid or Mackinnon as one of the top 3 players in the league for the next 10 years.  He's only ever gotten better year after year.  That was what the Wild had been missing up until they got him.  But now with that superstar at forward on their roster, with a great defense, and a solid goaltender, they stack up with any contender.  But every team has holes.  Yes their forward depth is not very good to atrocious and they really have screwed themselves with their dead cap otherwise they would easily be a top 5 team in the league.  However, their defense and goaltender are world class plus they showed last year just how good they were.

[Provost]

1 hour ago, Mustard Tiger said:

Seemed like you were implying a right now / shortened window due to Miller signing. I countered with if 9% if the cap effects that window that much... The problems lie elsewhere

 

No real question, I think I read what you said too fast and confused myself 

It is silly to suggest that 9% of the cap is just no big deal (it is more than 9% right now).  It is a league with parity and the difference between spending a million here and there on inefficient contracts is the difference between winning and losing.  
That is the same mentality of folks saying Benning's contracts weren't bad... a bunch of contracts signed for too much money and too much term absolutely destroyed the franchise's ability to compete for almost a decade and will continue to have repercussions for years as we face an empty prospect pool due to spending a bunch of assets to get out from under those bad contracts right at the time we should be heading towards a peak window.

The shortened window is the likelihood that Miller won't be worth half of what he is getting paid by the end of that contract if he ages like the average NHL player does.  An extra $4 million dollars or so is the difference between having Poolman or a top free agent in that roster spot... that is absolutely a difference maker in our chances.

We signed Miller, maybe it wasn't the smartest idea... time will tell.  Signing Miller should change the gears pretty substantially to push and improve the team now rather than wasting a couple years of his short expected peak performance holding as status quo and waiting for some magical cap space which won't be appearing in the next 2-3 seasons.

 

[JM_]

2 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

I watched a hockey movie the other day about pursuing the dream overseas. It's called Odd Man Rush. This kid gets traded from the German league to Sweden. After the coach and a couple players picked him up at the bus stop in his Volvo he told him his three simple rules.

 

1. Always give 100% in every practice and every game. 

2. If you are ever in your own end, chip it out or f#$k off.

3. Never sh!t on the bus.

 

I think this is a good start. 

 

Seriously though development will be key. One more year of experience from Petterson, Hughes, and Bo, will mean a lot as they do a lot of the heavy hitting. Then there is Boeser, Dermott, as well and Hoglander if he is still here. Podkolzin, is still young and learning, but he is projected as a key cog defensively moving forward. Rathbone is in there too. Hopefully the new additions bring what they are supposed to defensively as this group needs to develop that TB style of defensive prowess from within. It's going to require a team buy in from all of these young guys and new players to becoming stingy defensively, and consistency is crucial.

 

I think there is a good chance that several of these players make strides forward this year. It's also up to Miller to set the tone. He's got to make good hockey decisions and smart plays with the puck as the other players will follow his lead now more than ever. I think the players are revved up as can be and and will bring their A games. It's also big having Petey and Hughes here, engaged, excited, and injury free, heading into camp.

 

What a different feel from last year's camp eh!

 

Thanks for the article. Good read. I had to laugh at the end. Special teams analysis: Well it's useless to talk about because Crosby is a baby and the refs give him all the calls. haha bitter Rags writer. 

If both Rathbone and Dermott are a bit better than are projected that would help.

 

I'm really curious about a Dermott-Myers pairing and if that can function similar to OEL-Myers. Dermott can retrieve and pass well, Myers.... well he is what he is so if he can avoid throwing pucks up the middle and just carry it out with his size maybe we're OK.

 

I see this now as two playoff 1st, maybe 2nd round appearances and then we're cooking with these guys. Miller should still be young enough and Podz should be in full beast mode, and we will have the cap to really bring in some quality right side d.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TheCammer]

Where are all the "he doesn't want to play in Vancouver " folks??? 

 

 

 

................(crickets)

[JM_]

41 minutes ago, Attila Umbrus said:

I'm really hoping Rathbone makes the team and shows everyone what he can do. But I have to keep telling myself to temper my expectations on him. Last year was great, but injury riddled for him. I want to see how well his awareness in the dzone has improved this off season. With time and space his vision is through the charts, but has a habit of getting over pressured if he gets caught in his own end. Where Hughes has no rattle to him under pressure at all. Really looking forward to him hitting the ice this year. Whether he is in the AHL or NHL I just hope he stays healthy and has a FULL season of development.

he's going to struggle like any young d, but I really want him paired with Schenn as his mentor. Not for style, etc. but to keep him grounded and for communication on what their job is when they are paired together. 

 

[JM_]

10 minutes ago, Rindiculous said:

I was never really that high on Fiala personally.  Like yah he's a top 6 player, but I consider him quite inconsistent like Boeser.  The x-factor for the Wild is Kirill Kaprizov.  That guy is insane and really could be in the conversation with Mcdavid or Mackinnon as one of the top 3 players in the league for the next 10 years.  He's only ever gotten better year after year.  That was what the Wild had been missing up until they got him.  But now with that superstar at forward on their roster, with a great defense, and a solid goaltender, they stack up with any contender.  But every team has holes.  Yes their forward depth is not very good to atrocious and they really have screwed themselves with their dead cap otherwise they would easily be a top 5 team in the league.  However, their defense and goaltender are world class plus they showed last year just how good they were.

Fiala is easy to defend against, to stop him just hold up a mirror and he can't help himself. 

[Toyotasfan]

On 9/2/2022 at 4:00 PM, Roger Neilsons Towel said:

Just because the Language Filter is temporarily not working doesn’t mean the rules don’t apply. Don’t make me get the soap!

Louie Ericksson , not player name. 

Had to check .

[AV.]

52 minutes ago, Attila Umbrus said:

Thanks, this is well explained AV. I understand your position in all this now firmly. You have some great points. We are at where we are at now and need to move forward. There is still retooling needed to be done, there will be contract hang ups, but I have faith that this will turn out in our favor. We have a very experienced head office now and I think that will pay off going through these tough waters in how to become a true cup champion.

 

I agree the "just make the playoffs" mentality is a cover up for a poor team trying to over aspire. However, you can't argue some of that mantra does hold true. It's worked for teams in the past, I always think of LA's 8th seed storm to the cup as a great example. Yes LA became a power house of their own, but it all started with the mantra of "anything can happen" if you make it to the dance...from there they built themselves beyond that point and into the contenders they eventually become and won a second cup 2 years later again. I guess my point is that it is okay to have that mantra to start, but as you alluded to you can't just keep staying in that zone if you want to be true perennial cup contenders. That's the next big challenge after that.

 

I look to Chicago and Pittsburgh for those models and how they built themselves past that point. IMO we have a 2 year window with the contracts we have to perform to those expectations, make the playoffs, see what happens, make some noise hopefully. Will see how it all pans out. We definitely need to shore that defense up but it''s serviceable for now, and we have a bit of time to re-tool it. As you said, it's all gotta go right...but I so far have liked JR and companies "cool hand" approach on what to do next. I actually feel there is a solid plan starting to take place, where as Benning's regime we seen a less confident front office group, getting bossed around in trades and such. I did not like that...Hello Hamhuis. I actually feel like under this regime we won't lose our assets for nothing anymore. Refreshing.

Thing is, LA is not a great example for that mantra, though, because they had already made the playoffs the two previous seasons (finished 6th in 2009/10 and 7th in 2010/11 in the Western Conference standings) and made subsequent moves in the 2011 off-season to continue building and take the next step for the 2011/12 season. 

Already at the 2011 TDL, they made a big play for Dustin Penner.  Moved Colton Teubert (former 1st) + 2011 1st

Obviously, they made a huge trade to get Mike Richards a few months later in 2011 off-season.  Moved Wayne Simmonds (young, effective roster player ATT) + Brayden Schenn (former 1st and top 5 pick)

And of course, brought in Jeff Carter at the 2012 TDL.   Moved Jack Johnson (young, top-4 defenceman ATT) + 2013 1st

They were operating like a team that expected to go far and win now, not simply continue making the playoffs and hoping to go on a run.  This was always the case with LA - they were just in a false position for most of that season, and really, most of their competitive window.  Upon inspection, we can see they finished 5th in the Western Conference standings in 2012/13 [made WCF], and finished 3rd in the pacific/6th in the overall Western Conference standings in 2013/14 [won the cup].  In hindsight, I think it's clear they did not care to prioritize where the finished in the regular season during those years, and chose to bring their best in the post-season.  

If we can take anything from LA is that if you want to win, you have to be prepared to move significant futures and make the tough trades involving young roster players to get the clear upgrades and talented players.  That leaves us with a few questions:  Are the Canucks willing to be as aggressive and shrewd to mount a serious challenge?  If they are, do they have enough assets and capital to actually pull it off.  I can't speak for the first one, but I will say we don't have nearly enough that think we do to actually carry out the second one.  Therefore, this extension becomes pretty problematic.

I'll end on some positivity by saying that between Allvin and Benning going all in, I do believe Allvin has surrounded himself with many more voices that offer diversity in experience, outlook, and perspective than Benning would have chosen to surround himself with, and I would trust his version of going all-in than I ever could with the previous regime.

Edited September 5, 2022 by AV.

[FaninMex]

10 minutes ago, JM_ said:

If both Rathbone and Dermott are a bit better than are projected that would help.

 

I'm really curious about a Dermott-Myers pairing and if that can function similar to OEL-Myers. Dermott can retrieve and pass well, Myers.... well he is what he is so if he can avoid throwing pucks up the middle and just carry it out with his size maybe we're OK.

 

I see this now as two playoff 1st, maybe 2nd round appearances and then we're cooking with these guys. Miller should still be young enough and Podz should be in full beast mode, and we will have the cap to really bring in some quality right side d.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Boroughs! Calm, defensive dman that plays with grit. Enough grit that opposing players often tried to jump him. He also played really well with Poolman. If he were to play with Myers, I think it could really work. Myers can wander a bit more. Myers act as a slight determent to players wanting to jump Boroughs.

 

OEL - Hughes

Boroughs - Myers

Rathbone / Dermott - Schenn

 

 

[AV.]

22 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

Haha no.

 

You don’t sign a player to a 7 year deal just to trade him before the deal even kicks in. 
 

They signed this deal because they’re committed to him long term and he’s committed to the team.

 

You would be blacklisted by every agent if you pulled a move like that.

No, it certainly doesn't create for nice optics, but it has been done before.

see: Paul Holmgren, Jeff Carter.

[Gurn]

1 minute ago, AV. said:

No, it certainly doesn't create for nice optics, but it has been done before.

see: Paul Holmgren, Jeff Carter.

I presume free agents have signed with those teams since that happened.?

I'm actually positive the Flyers have done so.

[-DLC-]

25 minutes ago, TheCammer said:

Where are all the "he doesn't want to play in Vancouver " folks??? 

 

 

 

................(crickets)

They KNEW. Just like some still know.

 

I don't know.