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[Speculation] Las Vegas is going to have a better team than the Canucks...


bloodycanuckleheads

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32 minutes ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

The Expansion Draft is starting in a few minutes, so I thought I should check the final sentiment here (before people get the chance to re-write history)...

 

I have 7 up-votes for starting this post - and the first comment has 15 (for disagreeing with me).  So, that means that more than 2 out of 3 forum members think that the Nucks are going to beat Vegas next year.  Pretty decisive.  68.2%.

 

I think the majority of you are going to be pretty surprised in a couple hours!  It's going to be far more disgusting than I thought.  The team they are going to have (once this all plays out) is gonna be so much better than us, it's not even funny.  The Expansion Draft is just the beginning too.  They're going to have so many tradeable assets, they could assemble a decent team just from that.  So, their team is only going to get better and better over the next few months.

 

They aren't just going to be better than us next season - they're going to beat us by like 20+ points!  And, worse yet, they're going to be deeper than our team and have a much better prospect-pool too.

They'll be "so much better than us" in your eyes even if they picked the worst players out there. That's just how your posts go....

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OK, now that the Expansion Draft is over, it's time to see what's what.  But, remember, this is only what Vegas is starting with.  They have a metric-poop-ton of assets that they can trade in order to upgrade.  For instance, they've got half a dozen first and second round picks they can trade - and still leave themselves with all their original picks!  Half a dozen!  Those are just the extras they have...  And, that's just the picks.  They've also got several valuable players they don't need...  

 

For instance, here is how their pool of picks compares to ours:

 

VEGAS 2017 PICKS:  #6, #13, #15, #34, #45, #65, #74, (possibly #85), #96, #127, #142, #158, #161, #189

NUCKS 2017 PICKS:  #5, #33, #55, #64, #95, #112, #188


THEIR PRELIMINARY LINE-UP

Forwards:
(KOVALCHUK?) - SHIPACHYOV - GUSEV
NEAL - MARCHESSAULT - SMITH
PERRON - EAKIN - KARLSSON
BELLEMARE - HAULA/LINDBERG - PULKKINEN
extras: LEIPSIC, CARRIER, THORBURN

 

Defense:
METHOT - EMELIN
GARRISON - van RIEMSDYK
SCHMIDT - SBISA
extras:  SCHLEMKO, ENGELLAND

 

Goal:
FLEURY - PICKARD

 

They seem to have built-for-the-future, instead of win-now.  Their roster doesn't look too great, but again, this is only their starting-position.  The Canucks' line-up is pretty much set, we don't have much flexibility - but not them!  They can upgrade all over their line-up if they want to (of course, they might just choose to keep building for the future)!  So, if you don't like Karlsson being forced into the 3rd line RW role - just imagine what Karlsson plus a 1st buys you!  Whatever it is, it's better than Karlsson.  You can do that about 5 or 6 times with all the assets you have (and still have all your original picks and a bunch of extra players).  You can dramatically upgrade two whole lines if you want to.  So, when you look at the above roster, remember that half-a-dozen times, you can swap the person there with someone who's a lot better.  Or, maybe 2-3 times you could do a MASSIVE upgrade.

 

But there's more still:

 

FORWARDS to trade/send-down/dispose-of: Nosek, Tuch, Brickley

DEFENSE to trade/send-down/dispose-of: Theodore, Miller, McNabb, Merrill, Stoner, Reinhart

 

A few of those guys are valuable!

 

Looking at that line-up, you can almost guarantee that they'll try to pick up Ilya Kovalchuk to reunite him with the his linemates from the KHL.  So, I'm going to include him here.  If they're half as good as they were in the KHL last season, look out...

 

Let's see how their line-up (right now) compares to what our (presumed) line-up is going to be, scoring-wise:

 

VEGAS POINTS FORWARDS:  51, 46, 41, Ru, Ru, Ru, 37, 26, 25, 20, 12, 8, 2

VANC. POINTS FORWARDS:  52, 51, 44, 35, 34, 32, 24, 9, 8, 7, 5, 4, 1

 

VEGAS points from bottom 3 lines = 268

VANC. points from bottom 3 lines = 187

 

VEGAS GOALS FORWARDS:  30, 23, 18, Ru, Ru, Ru, 15, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3

VANC. GOALS FORWARDS:  20, 19, 18, 17, 15, 15, 11, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3

 

VEGAS POINTS DEFENSE:  18, 17, 16, 16, 13, 12, 10, 9 (total=111)

VANC. POINTS DEFENSE:  24, 21, 19, 10, 6, 3, 0, 0 (total=83)


Looking at all that, the teams seem pretty even, with Vegas having a slight edge over us.  But, that assumes the Russians only play average at best (notice I only have them scoring at a 2nd line level - with their $5 million salaries).  Kovalchuk/Shipachyov/Gusev should do better than that.  If the Russians play up to their salaries - the team will be phenomenal.  If they don't, it will suck.  But, of course, the line-up they ice in October will be a lot better than what you see right now!  Right now, they are already (arguably) better than us.  It only gets worse from here...

 

So, I will change my prediction.  Vegas only beats us by 5 (if they continue building for the future, which, looking at their roster, is the direction I expect them to go) or 15 (if they try to win-now).

 

Yup, pretty disgusting...

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Alot of the predictions of Vegas being good are based on them having a good draft. No guarantees picks equal future stars in a weak draft.

 

I personally think they should hav passed on some of those deals for a better lineup. Lots of what ifs in my books.

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7 hours ago, DeNiro said:

Alot of the predictions of Vegas being good are based on them having a good draft. No guarantees picks equal future stars in a weak draft.

 

I personally think they should hav passed on some of those deals for a better lineup. Lots of what ifs in my books.

Not to mention not much in the way of prospects compared to any team in the league right now.  Going to need those draft picks to catch up... Shea Theodore and Stoner were quite the bounty not to picks Vantanen though...

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7 hours ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

OK, now that the Expansion Draft is over, it's time to see what's what.  But, remember, this is only what Vegas is starting with.  They have a metric-poop-ton of assets that they can trade in order to upgrade.  For instance, they've got half a dozen first and second round picks they can trade - and still leave themselves with all their original picks!  Half a dozen!  Those are just the extras they have...  And, that's just the picks.  They've also got several valuable players they don't need...  

 

For instance, here is how their pool of picks compares to ours:

 

VEGAS 2017 PICKS:  #6, #13, #15, #34, #45, #65, #74, (possibly #85), #96, #127, #142, #158, #161, #189

NUCKS 2017 PICKS:  #5, #33, #55, #64, #95, #112, #188


THEIR PRELIMINARY LINE-UP

Forwards:
(KOVALCHUK?) - SHIPACHYOV - GUSEV
NEAL - MARCHESSAULT - SMITH
PERRON - EAKIN - KARLSSON
BELLEMARE - HAULA/LINDBERG - PULKKINEN
extras: LEIPSIC, CARRIER, THORBURN

 

Defense:
METHOT - EMELIN
GARRISON - van RIEMSDYK
SCHMIDT - SBISA
extras:  SCHLEMKO, ENGELLAND

 

Goal:
FLEURY - PICKARD

 

They seem to have built-for-the-future, instead of win-now.  Their roster doesn't look too great, but again, this is only their starting-position.  The Canucks' line-up is pretty much set, we don't have much flexibility - but not them!  They can upgrade all over their line-up if they want to (of course, they might just choose to keep building for the future)!  So, if you don't like Karlsson being forced into the 3rd line RW role - just imagine what Karlsson plus a 1st buys you!  Whatever it is, it's better than Karlsson.  You can do that about 5 or 6 times with all the assets you have (and still have all your original picks and a bunch of extra players).  You can dramatically upgrade two whole lines if you want to.  So, when you look at the above roster, remember that half-a-dozen times, you can swap the person there with someone who's a lot better.  Or, maybe 2-3 times you could do a MASSIVE upgrade.

 

But there's more still:

 

FORWARDS to trade/send-down/dispose-of: Nosek, Tuch, Brickley

DEFENSE to trade/send-down/dispose-of: Theodore, Miller, McNabb, Merrill, Stoner, Reinhart

 

A few of those guys are valuable!

 

Looking at that line-up, you can almost guarantee that they'll try to pick up Ilya Kovalchuk to reunite him with the his linemates from the KHL.  So, I'm going to include him here.  If they're half as good as they were in the KHL last season, look out...

 

Let's see how their line-up (right now) compares to what our (presumed) line-up is going to be, scoring-wise:

 

VEGAS POINTS FORWARDS:  51, 46, 41, Ru, Ru, Ru, 37, 26, 25, 20, 12, 8, 2

VANC. POINTS FORWARDS:  52, 51, 44, 35, 34, 32, 24, 9, 8, 7, 5, 4, 1

 

VEGAS points from bottom 3 lines = 268

VANC. points from bottom 3 lines = 187

 

VEGAS GOALS FORWARDS:  30, 23, 18, Ru, Ru, Ru, 15, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3

VANC. GOALS FORWARDS:  20, 19, 18, 17, 15, 15, 11, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3

 

VEGAS POINTS DEFENSE:  18, 17, 16, 16, 13, 12, 10, 9 (total=111)

VANC. POINTS DEFENSE:  24, 21, 19, 10, 6, 3, 0, 0 (total=83)


Looking at all that, the teams seem pretty even, with Vegas having a slight edge over us.  But, that assumes the Russians only play average at best (notice I only have them scoring at a 2nd line level - with their $5 million salaries).  Kovalchuk/Shipachyov/Gusev should do better than that.  If the Russians play up to their salaries - the team will be phenomenal.  If they don't, it will suck.  But, of course, the line-up they ice in October will be a lot better than what you see right now!  Right now, they are already (arguably) better than us.  It only gets worse from here...

 

So, I will change my prediction.  Vegas only beats us by 5 (if they continue building for the future, which, looking at their roster, is the direction I expect them to go) or 15 (if they try to win-now).

 

Yup, pretty disgusting...

Okay.

 

                             regards,  G.

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10 hours ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

 

(KOVALCHUK?) - SHIPACHYOV - GUSEV

.....

Looking at that line-up, you can almost guarantee that they'll try to pick up Ilya Kovalchuk to reunite him with the his linemates from the KHL.

Gusev is still under contract for another year in the KHL. 

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16 hours ago, flickyoursedin said:

They could have a better team if they didn't make all these backdoor deals for uncertain prospects. Should have really screwed over some teams.

 

 

Wouldnt be good for creating relqtionships with other GMS for future trades.

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8 minutes ago, IbanezRG said:

 

 

Wouldnt be good for creating relqtionships with other GMS for future trades.

McPhee's been around a long time. He mostly built the caps (minus the Erat trade, which got him canned).

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  • 6 months later...

Without having read anything above my current post (which may have touched on my point here), I took a look at the Knights' stats for Games Played. They really don't seem to have lost a lot of time from their starting roster. While they are playing well (and good on them for their success), I have doubts that they would be anywhere close to their current level of success if they had anywhere near the same amount of games lost due to injury as do the Canucks.

 

                                                             regards,  G.

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