Jake Virtanen | #18 | RW

[groovy]

I came on here to get an idea how Jake is doing. Obviously in the wrong place. CoHo, Linden -vs- Horvat... WTF?

[MJDDawg]

I know it's so early in his career and that "power forwards" take longer to develop, but I just can't shake this sick feeling that Jake may never live up to the expectations of being drafted so high. At least not with the Canucks.

 

Here's hoping that he spends a couple of years in the minor's finding his game, and more importantly, his desire to make the show and hopefully prove the naysayers wrong.

[WeneedLumme]

57 minutes ago, MJDDawg said:

I know it's so early in his career and that "power forwards" take longer to develop, but I just can't shake this sick feeling that Jake may never live up to the expectations of being drafted so high. At least not with the Canucks.

 

Here's hoping that he spends a couple of years in the minor's finding his game, and more importantly, his desire to make the show and hopefully prove the naysayers wrong.

I'm hoping that he only needs a few months in the minors to find his game. It would be nice to see him back on the Canucks this spring, making a useful contribution.

[Alflives]

8 minutes ago, WeneedLumme said:

I'm hoping that he only needs a few months in the minors to find his game. It would be nice to see him back on the Canucks this spring, making a useful contribution.

I think, from the comments of Green, Jake needs to commit to being a professional - especially when it comes to his fitness. 

[aGENT]

7 hours ago, WeneedLumme said:

I'm hoping that he only needs a few months in the minors to find his game. It would be nice to see him back on the Canucks this spring, making a useful contribution.

I'd be perfectly happy if he spent the rest of this and most of next year in Utica. 

[Gaudette Celly]

30 minutes ago, J.R. said:

I'd be perfectly happy if he spent the rest of this and most of next year in Utica. 

 

You'll need to take a haitus from this thread if that happens.  It'll be worse than ugly.

[aGENT]

3 hours ago, Hutton Wink said:

 

You'll need to take a haitus from this thread if that happens.  It'll be worse than ugly.

 

Meh, panicky buffoons. 

[guntrix]

It's always the same people dishing out the auto-defence mechanisms though, despite no heated debates. Makes you wonder who's really worried. 

[Phat Fingers]

On December 25, 2016 at 4:25 PM, Tomato Pajamas said:

Surely there are repercussions for derailing a thread this hard, aren't there?

 

 

Just enjoy the break from the we should have drafted Nylander comments.  It will all start up again when Jake goes a game without a point. 

[Phat Fingers]

14 hours ago, Alflives said:

I think, from the comments of Green, Jake needs to commit to being a professional - especially when it comes to his fitness. 

 

 

He likely does.  It's his stamina that needs to improve. Time and proper training will fix that.  

[Phat Fingers]

15 hours ago, MJDDawg said:

I know it's so early in his career and that "power forwards" take longer to develop, but I just can't shake this sick feeling that Jake may never live up to the expectations of being drafted so high. At least not with the Canucks.

 

Here's hoping that he spends a couple of years in the minor's finding his game, and more importantly, his desire to make the show and hopefully prove the naysayers wrong.

 

 

Jake needs to be play hungry. A prolonged stint in the AHL can create that. I see no problem

of making him work hard to get back up to the show. 

 

 

[JamesB]

15 hours ago, MJDDawg said:

I know it's so early in his career and that "power forwards" take longer to develop, but I just can't shake this sick feeling that Jake may never live up to the expectations of being drafted so high. At least not with the Canucks.

 

Here's hoping that he spends a couple of years in the minor's finding his game, and more importantly, his desire to make the show and hopefully prove the naysayers wrong.

 

14 hours ago, Alflives said:

I think, from the comments of Green, Jake needs to commit to being a professional - especially when it comes to his fitness. 

 

50 minutes ago, guntrix said:

It's always the same people dishing out the auto-defence mechanisms though, despite no heated debates. Makes you wonder who's really worried. 

 

I'm worried. I have spent way more time than I should have looking at player trajectories, having once downloaded the entire NHL.com database. I could find no evidence that "power forwards" take longer to develop. As far as I can tell that is a myth -- a popular myth, but a myth. (It is true that defencemen take longer than forwards to develop.)

 

Some guys are late bloomers, but they are just as likely to small skill guys as power forwards. I know that everyone thinks of Bertuzzi as a power forward who developed late, but probably the most famous late blooming forward in recent memory as Martin St, Louis, who was anything but a power forward. And Bertuzzi, in his draft+3 year (where Virtanen is now) scored 39 pts in 76 games (including 18 goals) playing for the Islanders. Those are solid second line numbers (and they were solid second line numbers at the time even though scoring was a bit higher then than it is now.) The genuine late bloomer on the Canucks was Burrows, and he is not a power forward. At the other extreme, Tkachuk is supposed to be power forward and he is already doing very well in the NHL right after being drafted (i.e. in his draft+1 season).

 

Furthermore, while there are late bloomers, the pattern players follow in the draft+1, draft+2, and draft+3 years is generally, for forwards,  a very good predictor of career performance.

 

Jake could still have a good career, but right now the odds are against him developing into a good top 6 forward. I would say his current expected ceiling is as a solid third liner, pretty much what Craig Button predicted when he was drafted. There is uncertainty of course, and I hope he beats that projection, but guys who are where he is in the draft+3 year are more likely to end up as bottom 6 forwards than as top 6 forwards in the NHL.

 

I think part of the issue with Jake is attitude, as Alf suggests. I don't mean there is anything "wrong" with Jake. But some guys just have the drive and self-discipline to keep getting better (like Horvat or Stecher or the Sedins). Some guys have major self-control issues (like Kassian) and most guys are in between. And I think the role of mentors is greatly exaggerated. After all, Horvat, Kassian and Virtanen all had the same mentors on the Canucks but they have wildly different attitudes and levels of work ethic.

 

I still think Virtanen can improve in Utica and that intensive developmental coaching will help him, as will playing decent minutes and getting his confidence back. And he will get more mature. But I think self-discipline will always be an issue for him.

[mll]

1 hour ago, JamesB said:

 

 

 

I'm worried. I have spent way more time than I should have looking at player trajectories, having once downloaded the entire NHL.com database. I could find no evidence that "power forwards" take longer to develop. As far as I can tell that is a myth -- a popular myth, but a myth. (It is true that defencemen take longer than forwards to develop.)

 

Some guys are late bloomers, but they are just as likely to small skill guys as power forwards. I know that everyone thinks of Bertuzzi as a power forward who developed late, but probably the most famous late blooming forward in recent memory as Martin St, Louis, who was anything but a power forward. And Bertuzzi, in his draft+3 year (where Virtanen is now) scored 39 pts in 76 games (including 18 goals) playing for the Islanders. Those are solid second line numbers (and they were solid second line numbers at the time even though scoring was a bit higher then than it is now.) The genuine late bloomer on the Canucks was Burrows, and he is not a power forward. At the other extreme, Tkachuk is supposed to be power forward and he is already doing very well in the NHL right after being drafted (i.e. in his draft+1 season).

 

Furthermore, while there are late bloomers, the pattern players follow in the draft+1, draft+2, and draft+3 years is generally, for forwards,  a very good predictor of career performance.

 

Jake could still have a good career, but right now the odds are against him developing into a good top 6 forward. I would say his current expected ceiling is as a solid third liner, pretty much what Craig Button predicted when he was drafted. There is uncertainty of course, and I hope he beats that projection, but guys who are where he is in the draft+3 year are more likely to end up as bottom 6 forwards than as top 6 forwards in the NHL.

 

I think part of the issue with Jake is attitude, as Alf suggests. I don't mean there is anything "wrong" with Jake. But some guys just have the drive and self-discipline to keep getting better (like Horvat or Stecher or the Sedins). Some guys have major self-control issues (like Kassian) and most guys are in between. And I think the role of mentors is greatly exaggerated. After all, Horvat, Kassian and Virtanen all had the same mentors on the Canucks but they have wildly different attitudes and levels of work ethic.

 

I still think Virtanen can improve in Utica and that intensive developmental coaching will help him, as will playing decent minutes and getting his confidence back. And he will get more mature. But I think self-discipline will always be an issue for him.

 

Virtanen doesn't seem to have a mentor - he has role models to observe but no specific mentor.  It sounds like he needs some maturing to do and having someone that can keep him in check could be useful.  The reasons you mention is why he could use one.  He is also famous, making a lot of money and there are a lot of distractions.  A mentor can help to not get caught in all that.  Other teams have their younger players initially live with a vet - keep an eye on them but also make them understand early on the discipline it takes to be a pro.  Also, if he had a mentor you would think he would address his frustrations with him instead of voicing them to the media and he would have helped him get some perspective. 

 

This is Shanahan in the Player's Tribune and why the Leafs believe in mentorship:  http://www.theplayerstribune.com/mailbag-brendan-shanahan/

 

Since your tenure started a large emphasis has been placed on mentorship throughout the organization, be it in management or on the roster itself. Could you discuss some of your key mentors on and off the ice and their impact? In what ways do you look for players and personnel to be mentors within the organization and within the community? — Mike

I sometimes see fans who question certain signings or the addition of certain players who maybe don’t measure up based on some metrics. And I think what they overlook is that it’s not necessarily the superstar on the team that imparts the most knowledge to young players who are developing. There are guys who can make a huge, franchise-changing difference with the leadership they provide off the ice.

For example, people will always ask me, “Who taught you how to shoot? Brett Hull?” And I’ll tell them, “No actually, it was Doug Sulliman.” Doug was a veteran guy when I joined the Devils early in my career. Playingwise he was in and out of the lineup, but he impacted my career because he had the time and the interest to pay it forward to us young guys and help us learn how to be pros. You can learn from superstars by watching them, but those guys have so much pressure on them that they need to put all their focus into doing their job. So it’s hard for them to spend a lot of time dissecting the game of a young player who’s coming up, and explaining to them how to improve. Also, sometimes a guy with that level of talent is just so naturally gifted that they can’t really fully explain it to others.

And that’s why healthy organizations need guys like Doug Sulliman. He transformed the way I shot the puck at a young age and that made me a much better player. And then when I went to St. Louis, I learned from Brett Hull by watching him.

I think people want to assume that you learn everything from NHL All-Stars, but when you look at the Matthews, the Marners and the Nylanders, you don’t really know who’s going to say the right thing at the right moment or provide an example that will put your young players on the right course. So our job sometimes is identifying those veteran players who can impart the right values and tasking them with sharing their wisdom so that our young players can get the most out of their careers.

Edited December 27, 2016 by mll

[Alflives]

6 hours ago, Eastcoast meets Westcoast said:

 

 

Jake needs to be play hungry. A prolonged stint in the AHL can create that. I see no problem

of making him work hard to get back up to the show. 

 

 

Good morning East Coast:)

 

yup, Jake gets paid a lot less down their too, so that might give him perspective.

[aGENT]

6 hours ago, JamesB said:

Tkachuk is supposed to be power forward and he is already doing very well in the NHL right after being drafted (i.e. in his draft+1 season).

 

Tkachuck isn't even 200 lbs...

 

Large PWF'S take time to adapt to no longer being able to simply dominate due to being larger than almost everyone like they could in junior. It usually takes most of those guys, with that body type, until 23/24 years old until it really comes together. Though many contribute at a decent 20+ point level from 20-24 and then jump up to 40+ at that point. Some like the Berniers/Pyatts never really make that jump. 

 

That body type also tends to require a LOT more training and work to get in to what we'd consider NHL shape/stamina level. It's a bit like trying to turn a tractor in to a race car. It takes time, dedication, a bit of luck and a LOT of work.

 

There is no shortcut here. 

 

All of this is why is prefer he stay in Utica largely the rest of this year and next (first call up on forward next year). Let him do all that work and get his swagger back away from this fish bowl. Then he can come up and likely be a 20+ point guy for a couple years in a 3rd line/occasional 2ND line role and with any luck make a leap from there in to a top 6 role. 

 

All of this is likely a good 3+ years away. If it hapens at all. There are no guarantees and patience is required.

 

[Phat Fingers]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Good morning East Coast:)

 

yup, Jake gets paid a lot less down their too, so that might give him perspective.

 

 

Been working the night shift over the holidays.  This forum is a version of brain candy for me. 

 

Shift work... Yuck. 

[Ihatetomatoes]

59 minutes ago, J.R. said:

 

Tkachuck isn't even 200 lbs...

 

Large PWF'S take time to adapt to no longer being able to simply dominate due to being larger than almost everyone like they could in junior. It usually takes most of those guys, with that body type, until 23/24 years old until it really comes together. Though many contribute at a decent 20+ point level from 20-24 and then jump up to 40+ at that point. Some like the Berniers/Pyatts never really make that jump. 

 

That body type also tends to require a LOT more training and work to get in to what we'd consider NHL shape/stamina level. It's a bit like trying to turn a tractor in to a race car. It takes time, dedication, a bit of luck and a LOT of work.

 

There is no shortcut here. 

 

All of this is why is prefer he stay in Utica largely the rest of this year and next (first call up on forward next year). Let him do all that work and get his swagger back away from this fish bowl. Then he can come up and likely be a 20+ point guy for a couple years in a 3rd line/occasional 2ND line role and with any luck make a leap from there in to a top 6 role. 

 

All of this is likely a good 3+ years away. If it hapens at all. There are no guarantees and patience is required.

 

 

I just can't get behind this excuse for Jake. Plenty of big PF types develop at the same rate as the smaller guys, like the poster a few posts above eloquently put there really is no difference in development paths between small guys and big guys. Sometimes guys take longer to develop but it happens both with smaller players as well as bigger players. 

 

Nick Ritchie is doing just fine and he's 235lbs. He scored at almost a ppg pace in the AHL and has 8 goals this year in his second year in the NHL. Drafted the same year as Virtanen and a player many wanted to draft, especially if the Canucks were hell bent on drafted a big PF type player.

 

Basically plenty of players take longer to develop and Jake may be one of them but the size thing is a played out excuse.

 

 

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, Ihatetomatoes said:

 

I just can't get behind this excuse for Jake. Plenty of big PF types develop at the same rate as the smaller guys, like the poster a few posts above eloquently put there really is no difference in development paths between small guys and big guys. Sometimes guys take longer to develop but it happens both with smaller players as well as bigger players. 

 

Nick Ritchie is doing just fine and he's 235lbs. He scored at almost a ppg pace in the AHL and has 8 goals this year in his second year in the NHL. Drafted the same year as Virtanen and a player many wanted to draft, especially if the Canucks were hell bent on drafted a big PF type player.

 

Basically plenty of players take longer to develop and Jake may be one of them but the size thing is a played out excuse.

 

 

So you can name one guy on a far better  (not to mention larger) team where he's FAR more insulated. 

 

Seriously, I'd love to see this long list of 19 year old 220lb+ PWF'S making these massive contributions on their NHL clubs.

 

Most of them spend a couple years in the minors, then a couple years as around 20-30 point players before making a jump in production around 23/24.

[messier's_elbow]

I see Jake on a similar trajectory as Krieder. Will be another 2 years before he's making a big impact. He will be a good player one day though. 

[Ihatetomatoes]

1 hour ago, J.R. said:

So you can name one guy on a far better  (not to mention larger) team where he's FAR more insulated. 

 

Seriously, I'd love to see this long list of 19 year old 220lb+ PWF'S making these massive contributions on their NHL clubs.

 

Most of them spend a couple years in the minors, then a couple years as around 20-30 point players before making a jump in production around 23/24.

Jaime Benn

Voracek

Lucic

Simmonds

Hartnell

Perry

 

All guys around Jakes size that put up decent numbers within their draft +3 years

 

A few guys like Kreider, Backes or Ladd took a while to develop but there are plenty of power forwards that do just fine within their draft +3 seasons. Just as many small guys have the exact same development curves.

 

Also Ritchie being on a team that is far better is more of a testiment to his quality level of a player that he can make the team and contribute vs not being able to make a bad team and contribute.