Short term pain for long term gain (Discussion)

[J.I.A.H.N]

Just some quick facts to explain our reasons for not being a playoff competitive team this year, and one which explains why we have to rebuild.

In todays NHL, teams rely on Special teams to put themselves into a better competitive position when playing against their opposition. And in this statement lies our problems. Let's look!

Although we are ranked 10th in Power play percentage, this is somewhat misleading, and gives a false impression when looking at the Canucks. And here is why......

When we look at our Power Play, it runs and succeeds by way of the Sedins, all will admit they are slow, but they are magic when given room. The Sedins thrive on Power Plays and weak teams, as witnessed by our last 2 wins against Carolina and Phili.

There are 2 stats that show why we are not a team that will compete in the playoffs and one which might actually not even make the playoffs.....Are we as bad as last year? No, but we have problems and here they are....

#1. Our 5 on 5 play......this stat shows our pressure on other teams, and actually is as important to the power play stats as is the power play its self........we are ranked 21st in 5 on 5 play, and that has probably moved up a point or 2 since the last 2 games

#2. Now people will say that yes, but we are 10th in the league in Power Play %, and again, that is true, but is misleading, as the more telling stat is how many chances we actually get the Power Play compared to everyone else. In that stat, we are ranked 25th in Power Play Opportunities, which is a far more important stat.

This last stat has a direct correlation to our 5 on 5 play. If your team does not consistently control 5 on 5 play, you will not generate Power plays, therefore even if your power play is good, it just won't get on the ice enough to win.

The only thing that keeps us going is our Penalty Killing, which is great at 3rd overall in the league and keeps our goal differential between the Oppositions Power Play and our Power Play close, but as we play stiffer competition, those numbers do not mean as much, as 5 on 5 play starts to more and more dictate the final score of the games

The remedy to this reality is to obtain big, young, quick, offensively gifted players. Signing players like Vrbata and Miller only mask the problem as we are seeing...take Vrbata away from the mix, and we sink further into the hole. Keeping Vrbata, slows down the process, not a good idea in my opinion, this goes for others as well.

We need to be honest here, as our prospects, although solid, do not have top/elite offensive skills, other than Virtanen (and he needs to prove himself at a higher level) But over all, we are weak in that department, and need to address it quickly, or our rebuild will really start in 2 years....and by that I mean we will be much weaker and will then be picking regularly in the bottom 10.

I believe we can stem that tide, but it will be associated with some growing pains and acceptance of not being as competitive for the next couple of years....let's take advantage of our current position and the strong draft we are in......It is the time to trade our aging assets, that have worth today, but will have less in 2 years. Short term pain for long term gain!

[Warhippy]

So what you`re saying is ALL of this is Kassians fault and we need to trade him immediately for a small soft perimeter player or an undersized defensemen or even a couple of NHL washouts barely holding on to roster spots and riding the pine.

Just thought I`d get that out of the way before the two regulars came in with the exact same posts as always.

Now, I want to reiterate. The time for us to be bad enough to garner a high draft pick was before we traded for Dorsett and signed Vrbata and Miller.

We are now humping our way along in mediocrity and will do so until they and the twins expire. It is that simple. benning and Linden wanted to be competitive yet never once addressed the fact that we are not and will not be good enough to win for the next few seasons. A lot of us already knew this.

The only way this rebuild or re-tool properly kicks off is if we can jettison contracts from the top 4 D core and a few from the top 6 tweeners that will allow for some kind of extra picks in the first two rounds and space and contract spots to bring in what youth we have that might be NHL ready.

The biggest worry is Benning and Linden rent players at the deadline this or next season as opposed to shipping players out. We need the space for our youth and we need the cap to possibly jump in via free agency.

As is though, we are to good to be bad and to bad to be truly good. We are an over achieving middle of the pack team and your stats and common sense very clearly show just that. Our most impressive wins have come against some truly sub par teams, our wins against our division are pretty solid and all that is keeping us in playoff contention.

But we are no more than a 1 and done team in the playoffs should we make it IF lucky a 2nd round cake walk as we don`t have the mobility or depth to compete against the upper echelon teams in multiple 7 round series.

We sink or swim with this core and until Linden and benning ship out 2 or 3 of those contracts and allow for the entrance of youth, while still holding on to our picks and prospects and youth (yes this means Kassian as well unless the return is right)

The rebuild or re tool will take time. This fan base and it's eastern centric win or you suck mentality just has to allow for that

[Jiggs50]

Long term gain. We have vets that should be moved for picks in a strong draft year. We can retool pretty fast imo.

[J.I.A.H.N]

That is what I am saying!

[Wilbur]

I don't see Benning panicking at or near the deadline and trading for a stop gap player. He's been pretty clear that he is not trading away picks and prospects.

Miller and Vrbata were signed because they filled an obvious need that youth could not fill yet. Markstrom wasn't ready for a lot of NHL minutes and Jensen wasn't ready for a top 6 role.

Ah never mind, I see the plan on this thread. Let's taaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnkkkkkkkkkkkkkk. It's a simple, genius plan that surely won't fail. Ship out Hamhuis, Higgins, Hansen, Bonino, Burrows and fill them with Corrado, Shinkaruk, Jensen, and Gaunce even though they're not ready. Let's get so bad the Sedin's and Bieksa will be disgusted enough to waive their NTC's. We'll be so bad Edmonton will blush. TANK TANK TANKITY TANK TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNKKKKKKKKKKKKK.

If anything else it'll be interesting.

Way more interesting than slowly but steadily amassing young talent that can be given the time to properly grow.

[coastal.view]

everyone on here has their own opinions

but too many think they know more than our gm and pres

benning/lnden appear to be pretty shrewd

they do not want to go the oiler route

the want our young developing players to grow up and develop in a winning environment

they think that will best allow them to flourish

that is the detroit model (and not the oiler one)

sometimes it will appear the canuck team might be teetering on failure

but if benning/linden can keep the team pretty much where it is

while the team is slowly reconfigured by adding youth

that may be the smartest way to go

you develop the youth in a better environment

keep the team attractive to free agents

keep the fans interested

and do not damage the brand

i think linden and benning know exactly what they are doing

i prefer to keep them in place rather than having cdc views prevail

[Ghostsof1915]

Only problem is let's say you ask Higgins, or one of the vet's with a NMC to move. And they say no. Now you have a player that knows they are not going to fit in with the team's plans. What motivation will they have the rest of the season. That makes a very tough trade to find 1) The right trade partner. 2) A team that the player would be willing to go to. 3) You get decent return.

It's not like Benning can do a jedi mind trick and go: Hansen is a great forward. You will trade me your 1st round pick for him....

[hlaevang]

First of all I would like to say that this was very well thought out. It was a good read. That said, I just don't see this fitting with what Benning has said. He wants us to be competitive now. Moving guys like Vrbata or even the Sedins will compromise that goal for him. I would suggest a tweak to garner us the younger missing pieces would be more in line with what he is looking for. Keep in mind that we are second in our division so now is not the time to move big pieces, unless we are getting significant value in return.

[ChuckNORRIS4Cup]

I'm not even reading the post to long sorry OP, if your looking to blame someone you should be blaming Gillis he messed this team up badly, Benning is trying to fix it in a hockey market where it's almost impossible to rebuild. If you want to rebuild you go to Florida, New Jersey, Coyotes, places like that where it isn't a hockey market first. Here in Canada it is a hockey market where big money is involved, and a province that wants a Stanley Cup now! The city doesn't want to keep supporting a team who can't win a cup or is waiting to win a cup, it doesn't work like that here. This city and the market, is about making the playoffs for a chance at winning a cup that's how it goes here, if this team isn't making the playoffs fans are not supporting this team and money is lost. Anyways if you don't make the playoffs then you never know if you can win the cup or not, so it is all about making the playoffs for a chance because YOU NEVER KNOW.

[JamesB]

....

Ah never mind, I see the plan on this thread. Let's taaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnkkkkkkkkkkkkkk. ... .

...

Right. All that stuff about 5-on-5 vs. PP is only marginally relevant. This OP really just re-states an argument that has been made many times. Let's trade away older players now for whatever we can get in draft picks and prospects, do poorly this year, get a high pick in this year's draft, and build for the future.

Not crazy but not original and the counter-arguments have also been made many times.

However, JB is not going to do this. If the team falls apart between now and the trade deadline we could see an attempt to trade assets for draft picks. But if the Canucks are in contention at the deadline this will not happen. Frankly, I was worried about going in the other direction -- trading picks and prospects for a rental who could help make the playoffs this year. Fortunately JB said that no picks and prospects will be traded (except, presumably for other picks and prospects that JB likes better).

From when TL was first hired, everyone from the owner on down was pretty clear that the objective was to make the playoffs this year while also keeping an eye on future (instead of mortgaging it like Gillis did).

[hlaevang]

Right. All that stuff about 5-on-5 vs. PP is only marginally relevant. This OP really just re-states an argument that has been made many times. Let's trade away older players now for whatever we can get in draft picks and prospects, do poorly this year, get a high pick in this year's draft, and build for the future.

Not crazy but not original and the counter-arguments have also been made many times.

However, JB is not going to do this. If the team falls apart between now and the trade deadline we could see an attempt to trade assets for draft picks. But if the Canucks are in contention at the deadline this will not happen. Frankly, I was worried about going in the other direction -- trading picks and prospects for a rental who could help make the playoffs this year. Fortunately JB said that no picks and prospects will be traded (except, presumably for other picks and prospects that JB likes better).

From when TL was first hired, everyone from the owner on down was pretty clear that the objective was to make the playoffs this year while also keeping an eye on future (instead of mortgaging it like Gillis did).

Exactly. Not saying that trades can't or won't happen. But all parties have to agree and it has to make us better.

[Odd.]

To be honest, getting a top 10 pick would be so beneficial to the team for the future, but getting to playoffs, is a more beneficial plan for the next era of our prospects. Because we need a winning environment to give our prospects some motivation and a winning culture. Teams like Detroit, LA, CHI have been in the playoffs for consecutive years and players like Brandon Saad, Tyler Toffoli, Pearson, Jurco, Nyquist have all been influenced by a winning culture. We need that from our prospects too.

This is why 2015 is such a great year for us. If we do not make the playoffs, we will be getting a higher pick to add to our prospect depth; which is considered 'long term gain'. And if we make the playoffs this year, we have then proved the naysayers wrong and that this core can still win, just like the the Detroit core that is mushed with youth. Franzen, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Datsyuk, are still winning despite their age.

Sedins are projected for 75-80 points respectively, which is pretty damn good for "washed up" players.

[Patchoball Cannons]

Just some quick facts to explain our reasons for not being a playoff competitive team this year, and one which explains why we have to rebuild.

In todays NHL, teams rely on Special teams to put themselves into a better competitive position when playing against their opposition. And in this statement lies our problems. Let's look!

Although we are ranked 10th in Power play percentage, this is somewhat misleading, and gives a false impression when looking at the Canucks. And here is why......

When we look at our Power Play, it runs and succeeds by way of the Sedins, all will admit they are slow, but they are magic when given room. The Sedins thrive on Power Plays and weak teams, as witnessed by our last 2 wins against Carolina and Phili.

There are 2 stats that show why we are not a team that will compete in the playoffs and one which might actually not even make the playoffs.....Are we as bad as last year? No, but we have problems and here they are....

#1. Our 5 on 5 play......this stat shows our pressure on other teams, and actually is as important to the power play stats as is the power play its self........we are ranked 21st in 5 on 5 play, and that has probably moved up a point or 2 since the last 2 games

#2. Now people will say that yes, but we are 10th in the league in Power Play %, and again, that is true, but is misleading, as the more telling stat is how many chances we actually get the Power Play compared to everyone else. In that stat, we are ranked 25th in Power Play Opportunities, which is a far more important stat.

This last stat has a direct correlation to our 5 on 5 play. If your team does not consistently control 5 on 5 play, you will not generate Power plays, therefore even if your power play is good, it just won't get on the ice enough to win.

The only thing that keeps us going is our Penalty Killing, which is great at 3rd overall in the league and keeps our goal differential between the Oppositions Power Play and our Power Play close, but as we play stiffer competition, those numbers do not mean as much, as 5 on 5 play starts to more and more dictate the final score of the games

The remedy to this reality is to obtain big, young, quick, offensively gifted players. Signing players like Vrbata and Miller only mask the problem as we are seeing...take Vrbata away from the mix, and we sink further into the hole. Keeping Vrbata, slows down the process, not a good idea in my opinion, this goes for others as well.

We need to be honest here, as our prospects, although solid, do not have top/elite offensive skills, other than Virtanen (and he needs to prove himself at a higher level) But over all, we are weak in that department, and need to address it quickly, or our rebuild will really start in 2 years....and by that I mean we will be much weaker and will then be picking regularly in the bottom 10.

I believe we can stem that tide, but it will be associated with some growing pains and acceptance of not being as competitive for the next couple of years....let's take advantage of our current position and the strong draft we are in......It is the time to trade our aging assets, that have worth today, but will have less in 2 years. Short term pain for long term gain!

Spoken like a true loser. Ask Edmonton how having the philosophy of losing to get better works, Then ask Detroit how the opposite philosophy works!

[elvis15]

I'm not even reading the post to long sorry OP...

I'm not even reading yours if you don't know the difference between to and too.

I said before, during the draft and free agency start, that I was ok with bringing in an experienced top 6 forward but I wasn't a fan of bringing in a new starting goalie. The winning culture is important, so you should still be a team putting in a good effort every night, but you have to be ready to accept losses to an extent as well while younger players develop into the system.

We aren't going into a full on rebuild, and nor are we competing for a cup, but I think we're just a little to the wrong side of the balance between when we should be looking for more opportunities for young players and chances to build in the draft with higher picks.

[I.Am.Ironman]

Warhippy hit the nail on the head.. The time for us to get a high draft pick had come and gone with the offseason acquisitions of Vrbata and Miller.

We would likely be drafting top 5 come this years draft instead we will likely be between 14-20 - it is what it is.

But Benning said from the get go that he wanted the team to remain competitive and we weren't going to do that without those signings. He has a plan and a vision which he seems to be executing; THAT is something I trust.

We all may have different opinions but at least TL & JB are carrying out THEIR plan and sticking to their philosophies.

[ChuckNORRIS4Cup]

I'm not even reading yours if you don't know the difference between to and too.

I said before, during the draft and free agency start, that I was ok with bringing in an experienced top 6 forward but I wasn't a fan of bringing in a new starting goalie. The winning culture is important, so you should still be a team putting in a good effort every night, but you have to be ready to accept losses to an extent as well while younger players develop into the system.

We aren't going into a full on rebuild, and nor are we competing for a cup, but I think we're just a little to the wrong side of the balance between when we should be looking for more opportunities for young players and chances to build in the draft with higher picks.

At least I was being honest, and regards to my spelling I never paid attention in high school in English and I'm not afraid to admit it, I learned most of my spelling after high school on my own. I still don't know everything, and probably won't in my life time, but I really don't care, plus this is a social media board not a spelling test. Not everyone is the same in the world and it actually pisses me off on this site, where everyone compares people on here, because of their spelling, which is stupid.

[alfstonker]

It amazes me how people dump on our team.

We have played pretty well imo most of the season, the bad spell at the end of our 7 game road trip was again in my opinion down to Hamhuis's injury and fatigue. Even then I thought the games we lost at the end, might have gone the other way.

Over and after the holiday period, (home stand) I believe we were playing with illness. Even then I thought a couple of the games were there to be won.

In our present road trip I think there are signs we are recovering from illness and getting our speed and hustle back.

We are sixth in the WEST and have a couple of games in hand. If we win them we will be well in the hunt and steadily gathering momentum.

All this talk of trading and tanking in our position is to my mind disrespectful to the team, coaches and management and shows just how many lightweights we have in our fanbase.

[PowerAids]

I think you'll see a couple vets moved around the draft or over the summer to make room for guys like Virtanen and Jensen to have an opportunity.

IMO though, if you think the difference between us drafting well depends on if we pick top 10 or 20-30 I think the difference is overrated. Other than the first round, good players and duds will be found throughout every round of the draft, I trust JB's judgement when it comes to finding the right players.

PLUS, I think developing out prospects on a competitive team will be better for them in the long run, losing breeds losers IMO.

[-DLC-]

Love this: The remedy to this reality is to obtain big, young, quick, offensively gifted players

30 teams are all fishing from the same pond so acquiring players isn't just a matter of need-go get. They're basically auctioned off to the highest bidder and that comes into play...you haven't accounted for that. You have to give up to get, no one's mailing out free superstars. I like the slow and steady wins the race rather than looking for flash in the pan brilliance. Hard workers (like Dorsett) who give it all.

Any team can win...your on paper analysis goes out the window come playoffs and the real deal. The real deal is that the healthiest team that gets hot/on a roll at the right time (in particular, a hot goaltender), with some puck luck and officiating/calls that don't cripple them can win. Could be anyone.

Good teams hit skids and bottom feeders can sometimes surprise everyone if momentum swings their way at the right time.

Also, love that you're writing off our prospects. They take time to develop/unfold and if you're looking for immediate gratification, you may want to try bowling. Gutter ball/strike.

[BanTSN]

Predicted response is predictable. "Edmonton hurpa durpa! Detroit arfa arf-arf!"

We can do better than Edmonton has at using the draft and developing players. Who can't? But we're not even close to Detroit in terms of finding elite euro players in ultra-late rounds, and really, not even Detroit has pulled that off in years and years.

I find it funny that this argument usually comes from the same people that say zomg we shuda drafted NylandEhlerzzz, who both aren't Detroit-types at all.

The OP is correct. We're relying on the power play to win too much, and that's not going to work.

This relies too much on the refs making calls, and we all know the whistle pretty much vanishes in the playoffs. This is also part of the persecution complex in Vancouver. The Sedins, being powerplay wizards in their prime, absolutely needed the powerplay to be effective. So when the calls stopped coming, the whining started increasing. And so did the diving.

A team that is built properly shouldn't need the powerplay at all to score. A coach should be able to focus on a 5-on-5 deployment strategy and treat powerplays as a bonus. If that is the case, then his team is close to being ready to win.