[Discussion] Have we bridged the gap?

[Odd.]

McCann to Gudbranson

Forsling for Clendening who was then part of a trade for Sutter.

Shinkaruk for Granlund

Jensen for Etem

3rd round pick for Pedan

2nd round pick for Baertschi

Garrison for Vey essentially

 

Some of these trades makes sense. Some of them, it was like, I mean yeah we're getting a similar player in return, but was it necessary? For example, the Shinkaruk/Granlund trade. I don't hate the trade, but I certainly don't like the trade. Granlund is a center which we had a good amount of, and Shinky was a LW the organization needed, and at the end of the day, it was puzzling because most didn't find it necessary. Yes Granlund has 1 more year of experience and an NHL season's worth of games played under his belt and I admire that, but Granlund isn't a player we needed and certainly wasn't going to help us now, or possibly even the future whereas Shinkaruk was an organizational need, a player we needed (mind ya'll that him and Granlund are two different players), although same thing applies in that he probably wouldn't help us now or somewhere down the road. This is why it felt unnecessary. It's kind of hard to explain.

 

A necessary trade was McCann to Gudbranson. We had an abundant amount of centers, McCann was moved for someone who would help us defensively and bring a much needed asset McCann didn't really bring. This type of trades are good trades because you know exactly what you're getting back and you fully understand the risk and consequences if the trade doesn't work well. Especially since we have Horvat and Sutter centering our 2nd/3rd lines and McCann isn't the type of player that would excel at a 4th line role hence why there wasn't much success whereas Horvat was.

 

So yes, if there is a necessary trade and we know exactly what we're getting and we know that they will help us now and in the future (Gudbranson), do it, even if it might cost us picks. But don't do a prospect for prospect trade. Because most of the time, your prospect would help you better in the long run than the prospect you're getting. 

 

As well, trading for picks isn't a bad idea, but other than Hansen, Edler, Tanev (who is worth more than the possible return), we don't have anyone that is actually worth a high pick. Burrows? Worth a late round pick. Higgins? A buyout candidate. Dorsett? Late round pick. Sbisa? He's more of a throw in a trade, nobody would actually want to acquire Sbisa straight up. Hamhuis, Vrbata, Bartkowski, Weber, all heading to FA. And we ain't trading away our possible FA's within a year after we've signed them. 

 

 

 

 

[riffraff]

23 minutes ago, Frikandel said:

Do they not listen to the fan base???  Can they not tell that most are accepting of a rebuild?  I'd rather watch a young team with upside struggle with inconsistencies and miss the playoffs for a year or two versus the influx of secondary talent that allow for mediocrity which never results in a championship.  To me, it appears owners just want building filled and a few playoff dates to line their wallets...

I think they listen to the fan base.  But the base they listen to are the ones that are emotionally invested and show up to the meetings, call in to the shows etc. But are those the same fans that fill the seats?  I'm not so sure.  Ticket prices and attendance would suggest otherwise.

 

part of this problem imo, is the overall atmosphere at the rink.  By that I mean, the lack of an actual atmosphere.  And for this, I largely blame ownership.

 

[Boddy604]

26 minutes ago, Frikandel said:

We watched a struggling team filled with an aging core (Sedins, Burrows, Higgins, Hamhuis, Miller, Vrbata, etc), bad luck (typical of Canucks), injuries (also typical of Canucks) exposed their lack of depth which resulted in a 27th place finish.  Canuck mgmt tried for playoffs till nearly the end knowing full well the result would be a 4-5 game first round loss.  Had they been more committed to rebuilding, perhaps we would not have endured the fiasco that was the 2016 trade deadline!  As a result, we only had 2 picks in the top 100.  The inherited willingness to trade our 2nd round picks drive me nuts!

2nd round picks are over rated. We turned the last 2 2nds into Baertschi & Gudbranson. I think that's way better than what those 2nds would've become.

[Boddy604]

14 minutes ago, riffraff said:

I think they listen to the fan base.  But the base they listen to are the ones that are emotionally invested and show up to the meetings, call in to the shows etc. But are those the same fans that fill the seats?  I'm not so sure.  Ticket prices and attendance would suggest otherwise.

 

part of this problem imo, is the overall atmosphere at the rink.  By that I mean, the lack of an actual atmosphere.  And for this, I largely blame ownership.

 

I don't think the fan base is on board for a full on rebuild at all. They started this season with 3 rookies and Horvat Baertschi and it did nothing. If they shipped out the twins, Rogers Arena would be empty. Look at the backlash when they put Higgins on waivers. Everyone screamed injustice. The fans in Vancouver are used to winning and being a playoff team. I literally bought tickets this past season for 18 dollars each. 50 bucks got me 2 tickets, a burger, and a couple beers. Thats insane. I remember selling playoff tickets in 2011 for 850 bucks each when I was a season ticket holder.

[Warhippy]

1 hour ago, chon derry said:

if they pick up 1 or 2 fa's where does this leave gaunce,griener, kennins  these guys have to be getting sick of the comets by now ?  all 3 being very close to nhl ready.

You seem to have mistaken what i wrote.  If we are/were done trading picks and instead ready to start stockpiling.  IE trading vets etc

 

That would leave lots of roster space for our youth

[stawns]

2 hours ago, Frikandel said:

I really think they ought to look at moving Edler, but I don't think JB has authority to do so.  I like addition of Gudbranson, although not at the price paid, but IF he fulfills some of the potential he had as a 3rd overall pick, then its a solid move.  I also think that McCann was shipped out with expectations that Canucks would draft Dubois at 5....that obviously did not happen.  Now lets all just pray that JB does not sign a Lucic or Erickson to long-term albatross contracts!

Mccaan was shipped out because he was never going to overtake Horvath or Sutter in a top 6 c position and you have to give up to get.  The csnucks got the far superior player in the deal. Now and the the forseeable future.

[Frikandel]

17 minutes ago, stawns said:

Mccaan was shipped out because he was never going to overtake Horvath or Sutter in a top 6 c position and you have to give up to get.  The csnucks got the far superior player in the deal. Now and the the forseeable future.

I know why McCann was shipped out, I wasn't a fan of including that second round pick.  In an era where teams can only protect 3 dmen, knowing that Gudbranson is in line for pay raise (one that Florida wasn't willing to pay), I wonder why the price was essentially equivalent to what Flames paid for Dougie Hamilton?  To me, it just seems that JB doesn't really win many trades.  He always pays full value, and then some don't pan out (e.g. Linden Vey...Pedan?).  Just once, I'd like to see Canucks enter a draft with picks in all rounds.  JB is apparently a great judge of skill and good at drafting...apparently this skillset is not as prevalent in players acquired via trades.

[Fred65]

3 minutes ago, Frikandel said:

I know why McCann was shipped out, I wasn't a fan of including that second round pick.  In an era where teams can only protect 3 dmen, knowing that Gudbranson is in line for pay raise (one that Florida wasn't willing to pay), I wonder why the price was essentially equivalent to what Flames paid for Dougie Hamilton?  To me, it just seems that JB doesn't really win many trades.  He always pays full value, and then some don't pan out (e.g. Linden Vey...Pedan?).  Just once, I'd like to see Canucks enter a draft with picks in all rounds.  JB is apparently a great judge of skill and good at drafting...apparently this skillset is not as prevalent in players acquired via trades.

First of all rumour ....I know rumour! is that Hamilton is on the trade block same problem as in Boston narcissistic !

 

secondly

 

Quote

We can see that JIM Benning is taking advantage of an inefficiency in the marketplace to improve the team.

Here’s the facts behind the hubub: the best pick that Benning has traded away to date was #33, this year. According to Scott Cullen’s excellent look at draft picks & future production, #33 is somewhere around a 13% chance of producing a top-6 F, a top-4 D, or a starting goaltender. The pick, historically, has an 84% chance of being a regular 4th liner, 7th defenceman, or spot goalie—or worse. Barely over 1 in 3 players picked at this spot (34%) will play 100 games in the NHL, almost all as replacement-level players. Yet, most GMs are willing to trade away a 3rd liner/4-6 D for a second round pick, when there is an 84% likelihood that the guy they choose in return will be worse than the guy they gave up, to get a chance for that 13%. "You can’t win if you don’t buy a ticket".

Therefore, second-round picks are over-valued.

In the specific trade, the draft picks that Benning traded were a 2nd and a 4th for a 3rd. Travis Yost took an interesting look at values of combined picks. From his work, we can see that the combined likelihood that Florida gets one player out of the deal that will play as many games in the NHL in their career as McCann has already played is just under 60%. There is twice the likelihood that the only NHL player that Florida received in this trade was McCann as the likelihood that either of the players picks plays 100 games at a second-line, or better, level.

Marketplace inefficiency; multiple draft picks are over-valued.

If you can trade lottery tickets that are highly unlikely to pan out for a proven NHL player with a statistically-proven floor that is higher than the likeliest value of the draft pick, then you are winning the trade. If you can see other marketplace inefficiencies (an over-reliance on statistical models that stats analysts admit do not correctly account for usage and the effect of teammates on the statistical models, just to pull an example out of a hat) while simultaneously exploiting the over-valuation of draft picks outside the first round, you stand a very high likelihood of "winning" the trade.

 

[oldnews]

3 hours ago, Warhippy said:

So of course the usual melt down happened this week

 

ZOMG Benningz didn't trade all da vetz and draft all the prospeckzzz

 

But let's be serious here.  It can be hard watching other teams do that.  We all get shiny new toy syndrome and would like to add to our teams' personal wealth in depth and skilled prospects. 

 

But we couldn't.  Why?  Because we traded all the picks right?  Well sort of.

 

We traded a few picks and for a few players over the past few seasons to bridge that perceived gap of 20-25 age players.  The reason being we needed skilled young NHL ready bodies.  Most people could see that.

 

But after the Real Gud Trade (Gudbranson) and shoring up our defense with arguably a possible NHL ready D Man in Juolevi this draft are we done?  Have we finally bridged the gap where we can now start stockpiling picks as opposed to trying to bridge that gap?

 

Just really wondering what everyone thinks in regards to this or if they think we might see another few trades this year to bring in a few wingers/D at or around the 20-25 age range.

 

Thoughts?

Good question imo.  And framed well - a good lead into a discussion that doesn't have the overdone (negative) steering element embedded.

 

I think that's pretty much what Benning said post-draft.

That they've reached a point where they've restructured the team and can probably shift their focus towards keeping futures.

At the same time, I think they've done an excellent job of remaining relatively lateral in the futures sense while doing so.

Dealing a pick for a ELC or RFA imo is not really very problematic given their goals and approach.  Adding players with + seasons to evaluate can make serious sense, particularly guys like Baertschi or Pedan imo.  Likewise I have no problem with deals like the Etem one, prospect for prospect with a very late longshot pick thrown in  (love it), and the Granlund for Shink deal that so many people hated - I think will work out fine (and I really trust Green's judgement where Utica players are concerned).  

 

I'm not sure they continue to add players in that range - perhaps one forward? - but I think at this point they'll look to add a free agent or two, and won't have to work as hard to alter the demographic.

 

My hope is for Troy Brouwer - and that they stay out of the 'high end' UFA market - retaining some cap flexibility.  The modest raise of the cap imo positions the team exceptionally well to cash in on other team's crunches - and I also think the team is poised to be competitive enough that a range of different types of moves could make sense for them.

 

While other teams may be stockpiling picks....the Leafs that so many pom pom waivers on here consider to be 'doing it right' certainly have nothing resembling the kind of blueline and pipeline in goal that the Canucks have - and imo, that is how you build a team - from the back end forward.

 

[TmanVan]

3 hours ago, stawns said:

At some point, I think one of edler or tanev are moved for a top 6 fwd.  

The canucks D was brutal last year. In fact, it was was probably one of the worst overall groups in the entire league. If they trade Edler or Tanev we're on a very Edmonton-esqe path straight to the bottom of the league. Sure, another top six forward would be great, but it won't help a single damn thing if the team once again has one of the worst D's in the league.

 

I would much rather overpay for an Okposo, Ladd, Lucic, Eriksson, etc than trade D away. Top 4 d men are much harder to find than a top 6 forward.

[5nothincanucksohno]

3 hours ago, Warhippy said:

So of course the usual melt down happened this week

 

ZOMG Benningz didn't trade all da vetz and draft all the prospeckzzz

 

But let's be serious here.  It can be hard watching other teams do that.  We all get shiny new toy syndrome and would like to add to our teams' personal wealth in depth and skilled prospects. 

 

But we couldn't.  Why?  Because we traded all the picks right?  Well sort of.

 

We traded a few picks and for a few players over the past few seasons to bridge that perceived gap of 20-25 age players.  The reason being we needed skilled young NHL ready bodies.  Most people could see that.

 

But after the Real Gud Trade (Gudbranson) and shoring up our defense with arguably a possible NHL ready D Man in Juolevi this draft are we done?  Have we finally bridged the gap where we can now start stockpiling picks as opposed to trying to bridge that gap?

 

Just really wondering what everyone thinks in regards to this or if they think we might see another few trades this year to bring in a few wingers/D at or around the 20-25 age range.

 

Thoughts?

I think this is the last year (next season and the 2017 draft) where Benning will continue to trade draft picks for players. With the Sedins having 2 to 3 year left, I expect Benning will begin keeping picks.

 

I also think that any trades involving young players, that do not fit the system, will be for picks (e.g. instead of a Shink for Granlund trade it will be "Shink" for picks). After next years draft, Benning should have enough of his draft picks pushing for spots on the Utica and NHL rosters. Combine that with the holdover prospects like Horvat and Hutton, Benning should be in position to begin keeping and/or adding picks.

 

[Grape]

We still have a ways to go before we become contenders, and by that time I'm not sure Willie will still be coach or Benning will still be GM. But it's no doubt that potential core players for our franchise are starting to emerge.

 

Sutter, 27, C

Tanev, 26, D

Markstrom, 26, G

Rodin, 25, LW

Gudbranson, 24, D

Baertschi, 23, LW

Hutton, 23, D

Tryamkin, 21, D

Horvat, 21, C

Demko, 20, G

Virtanen, 19, RW

Boeser, 19, RW

Juolevi, 18, D

 

Obviously not all of these players will be part of the core. Some will be traded, or lost to FA, or maybe just won't pan out.

However, Benning and Gillis have assembled a group of young guys that look to have a chance to become the future core of the Franchise. This sort of resembles what we had under Burke/Nonis. They assembled most of the core for our 2011 cup run as well. Not saying Benning will be fired before we become a contender, but it took a few GMs to assemble our last competitive team and it may require a few this time as well.

[Warhippy]

Some solid discussion in here.

 

I too think we start stocking picks for the 17/18 draft.

 

Just seems that we've reached that point of turnover where we are aged gets young vets and prospects at a good ratio of one to one to one 

[JustABandwagoner]

2 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Some solid discussion in here.

 

I too think we start stocking picks for the 17/18 draft.

 

Just seems that we've reached that point of turnover where we are aged gets young vets and prospects at a good ratio of one to one to one 

Nah. Aquaman wont allow. He'll try to make us a playoff team cuz he doesnt want to lose the revenue sighh 

 

Maybe after the sedins leave us. Hope the sedins leave for MODO after their contract ends. 

 

As long as we have the twins we will always go for playoffs i think 

[oldnews]

34 minutes ago, Grape said:

We still have a ways to go before we become contenders, and by that time I'm not sure Willie will still be coach or Benning will still be GM. But it's no doubt that potential core players for our franchise are starting to emerge.

 

Sutter, 27, C

Tanev, 26, D

Markstrom, 26, G

Rodin, 25, LW

Gudbranson, 24, D

Baertschi, 23, LW

Hutton, 23, D

Tryamkin, 21, D

Horvat, 21, C

Demko, 20, G

Virtanen, 19, RW

Boeser, 19, RW

Juolevi, 18, D

 

Obviously not all of these players will be part of the core. Some will be traded, or lost to FA, or maybe just won't pan out.

However, Benning and Gillis have assembled a group of young guys that look to have a chance to become the future core of the Franchise. This sort of resembles what we had under Burke/Nonis. They assembled most of the core for our 2011 cup run as well. Not saying Benning will be fired before we become a contender, but it took a few GMs to assemble our last competitive team and it may require a few this time as well.

5 D in that group.

2 centers

2 goaltenders. 

 

There is the heart of the team moving forward - and they have a couple years to add one C to that future core group.

 

That is some very solid work on the part of GMJB considering only 4 of those pieces were here when he arrived.

[Nuxfanabroad]

The names are hazy(it's Monday morn, ferGawdsakes!), but sorta' feel we've slipped into a mid-80's vibe, (& period). Is that only cos' them Noxious Coilers are building a fwd-core that's starting to rival their dirty, oily ancestors of that same period? & good Lord, them late 80's Flamer-collections were nothing to trifle with either. The C-word might also be returning to the days of Lanny's stache.

 

Don't Hit me with data & analytics..I'm an analog-man, who needs a decent narrative to ponder. Must we get out the Culture Club, Human League & Wham! references(eegads), or are we meandering again into the dirty swamp of grungy 90's teenaged-angst? Enquiring minds want to know.

 

Said this recently, & think I'll repeat for kicks. We need a 'miracle-player' to arrive/emerge. Like Buffalo had Hasek turn up(outa' nowhere) in the early 90's. Our strongest-ever, 2011 edition had a few lucky hits(Burr, Hammy, Ehrhoff..even Tans) who mostly arrived in different fashions..yet all peaked virtually together. Combine that with some key late-season acquisitions, illustrates how this 'timing-thing' can be pretty rare.

 

***Play to the level of the opposition***

 

Here's a thought, to go with the 80's reference. Anyone who remembers the amazing upset of Flamers/Coilers(Steve Smith fiasco).

There was no doubt the Oil had the best team, but throughout the 80's the Flames usually gave them a tough game. Their players  quickly progressed to their ceilings, due to the fearsome rival up north.

 

Our youth might get this type of 'motivation'. Sink-or-swim. Benning & Trev know ALL about that particular era, & they're probably trying to develop a young, character team, accordingly.

[erkayloomeh]

5 hours ago, Warhippy said:

So of course the usual melt down happened this week

 

ZOMG Benningz didn't trade all da vetz and draft all the prospeckzzz

 

But let's be serious here.  It can be hard watching other teams do that.  We all get shiny new toy syndrome and would like to add to our teams' personal wealth in depth and skilled prospects. 

 

But we couldn't.  Why?  Because we traded all the picks right?  Well sort of.

 

We traded a few picks and for a few players over the past few seasons to bridge that perceived gap of 20-25 age players.  The reason being we needed skilled young NHL ready bodies.  Most people could see that.

 

But after the Real Gud Trade (Gudbranson) and shoring up our defense with arguably a possible NHL ready D Man in Juolevi this draft are we done?  Have we finally bridged the gap where we can now start stockpiling picks as opposed to trying to bridge that gap?

 

Just really wondering what everyone thinks in regards to this or if they think we might see another few trades this year to bring in a few wingers/D at or around the 20-25 age range.

 

Thoughts?

I think your right except I think we are going to be good enough now to not be getting top ten of even 15 picks.

Especially if we sign an Erikson type player .

[Salacious Crumb]

3 hours ago, Frikandel said:

I know why McCann was shipped out, I wasn't a fan of including that second round pick.  In an era where teams can only protect 3 dmen, knowing that Gudbranson is in line for pay raise (one that Florida wasn't willing to pay), I wonder why the price was essentially equivalent to what Flames paid for Dougie Hamilton?  To me, it just seems that JB doesn't really win many trades.  He always pays full value, and then some don't pan out (e.g. Linden Vey...Pedan?).  Just once, I'd like to see Canucks enter a draft with picks in all rounds.  JB is apparently a great judge of skill and good at drafting...apparently this skillset is not as prevalent in players acquired via trades.

It wouldn't surprise me if next year is the year of extra picks. After signing a couple of FA's JB will have a handful of trade chips heading into next years TDL. The Torts 2nd could also come home to roost.

[oldnews]

3 hours ago, Frikandel said:

I know why McCann was shipped out, I wasn't a fan of including that second round pick.  In an era where teams can only protect 3 dmen, knowing that Gudbranson is in line for pay raise (one that Florida wasn't willing to pay), I wonder why the price was essentially equivalent to what Flames paid for Dougie Hamilton?  To me, it just seems that JB doesn't really win many trades.  He always pays full value, and then some don't pan out (e.g. Linden Vey...Pedan?).  Just once, I'd like to see Canucks enter a draft with picks in all rounds.  JB is apparently a great judge of skill and good at drafting...apparently this skillset is not as prevalent in players acquired via trades.

"essentially" bs on your part.

15th overall and 2 x 2nd round picks 45 and 52.

 

you're not getting Gudbranson without adding a 2nd to McCann, and that is still an underpayment.

 

apparently you're unaware that scouting skills and trading/evaluationg players are inseparable.

[Alflives]

Just now, oldnews said:

"essentially" bs on your part.

15th overall and 2 x 2nd round picks 45 and 52.

Plus, Hamilton looks like he's soft as butter.  Flames paid more for the lesser player.  IMHAO