The Canucks lack of possession numbers and bleeding high danger chances

[Brad Marchand]

7 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

not sure I'd use the term "bleeding" but we're about middle of the pack in high danger shots and goals against. 

 

we have 70 hdgf and 67 hdsa. ANA only has 59 against. So need to take these numbers in context. 

 

But it would be nice if we could tighten things up and have more than just Hughes and Jake be able to carry the puck out consistently. 

 

you can see all the numbers here: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php

More stats for context:

 

The Canucks are 16th in the NHL in 5 on 5 high-danger scoring chances per 60 (10.5). The league high is 12.49

The Canucks are 22nd in the NHL in 5 on 5 high-danger scoring chances against per 60 (11.02). The league high is 12.71

The Canucks are 23rd in the NHL in HDCF% per 60 (48.81%). The league low is 39.24%

 

They would obviously like their numbers to be better, especially with regards to their most recent stretch of games, but the overall numbers could be worse.

 

What I notice consistently is that the players tend to collapse heavily to the middle of the ice to protect the slot and tend to back off on zone entries to avoid getting beat to the outside. The breakdowns in their own zone have become more frequent as of late, but the overall strategy seems to be to allow teams to shoot the puck as long as it's not from close to the slot. Markstrom's rebound control is a key part to this strategy working. I would definitely like to see them apply more pressure in their own zone, mind you.

[Patel Bure]

3 hours ago, Winter Soldier said:

Anyone who resorts to bragging about their success with women typically has little.

But alas child - I’m actually “getting lucky” as I’m typing this message!    

[Winter Soldier]

2 minutes ago, DarkIndianRises said:

child

you what

[Neil HD]

9 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

This team needs to straighten up defensively, they're playing offence like a top 10 team, defending like a bottom 10 team and goaltending like a top 5 team. Not a bad recipe but it's going to get exposed badly near the end of the season and the playoffs.

 

This is on Green to tighten up our defensive structure because it's not one or two guys, it's everyone.

Yep. This sounds like goddamn Leafs hockey. I don't want to keep seeing this team resort to Leafs hockey.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Neil HD

[Timråfan]

11 hours ago, Winter Soldier said:

Anyone who resorts to bragging about their success with women typically has little.

I'm not sure if it is "success with women" just talking to them. But I won't judge... 

[Phat Fingers]

16 hours ago, FinchBird said:

While he may deserve that at the moment, don't forget the Canucks gave him all the time and Ian Clarke to resurrect his career, he was waived through the league not that long ago, I would max out at 3X6 with no protection clause. Gives him the chance to win cup and then cash in

I don't see it the same way.  Yes, it is safe to say that Florida ruined Marky and then sent him to us so we could say we had a goalie of the future.  

 

He has rounded into form, and if you think that he is going to regress any time soon, I believe your mistaken.  

 

Marky started playing this way in the second half of last year.  After Nielsson was dealt.  He has only improved steadily since then.  

 

Provided injuries are held to a minimum, he will stay at this level for the next 2-3 years easy.  Remember until the last 2 seasons, Marky hasn't had alot of miles on the old powertrain.  He is coming into his prime and he is worth prime money, protections and term.

 

There is some wiggle room due to smaller sample size, hopefully a hometown discount to the club that stick with him and helped him rediscover his game.  

 

Make no mistake, Marky is a heart and soul player in the room.  He is the MVP and gives this team the ability to take chances which has lead to a huge upturn in offence.  

 

We are still a sieve defensively, but with some great transition players, we are a great counterattack team.  This is why we are drawing penalties.  Players make more mistakes trying to defend after a turnover than not.  

 

That can happen in large part due to Marky.  

 

Demko has been really good.  See a good future for him.  But he hasn't come close to taking the net away from Marky.  We also have a pretty good prospect in Mikey down in Utica.  Currently ahead of Demko in terms of development at the same age.  

 

Keep the MVP.

[IBatch]

33 minutes ago, Phat Fingers said:

I don't see it the same way.  Yes, it is safe to say that Florida ruined Marky and then sent him to us so we could say we had a goalie of the future.  

 

He has rounded into form, and if you think that he is going to regress any time soon, I believe your mistaken.  

 

Marky started playing this way in the second half of last year.  After Nielsson was dealt.  He has only improved steadily since then.  

 

Provided injuries are held to a minimum, he will stay at this level for the next 2-3 years easy.  Remember until the last 2 seasons, Marky hasn't had alot of miles on the old powertrain.  He is coming into his prime and he is worth prime money, protections and term.

 

There is some wiggle room due to smaller sample size, hopefully a hometown discount to the club that stick with him and helped him rediscover his game.  

 

Make no mistake, Marky is a heart and soul player in the room.  He is the MVP and gives this team the ability to take chances which has lead to a huge upturn in offence.  

 

We are still a sieve defensively, but with some great transition players, we are a great counterattack team.  This is why we are drawing penalties.  Players make more mistakes trying to defend after a turnover than not.  

 

That can happen in large part due to Marky.  

 

Demko has been really good.  See a good future for him.  But he hasn't come close to taking the net away from Marky.  We also have a pretty good prospect in Mikey down in Utica.  Currently ahead of Demko in terms of development at the same age.  

 

Keep the MVP.

Goaltending is definitely a team strength at the moment, and I hope JB can manage the ED and the cap in a way that keeps it that way.   Markstrom is a top ten goalie now, and given he's a UFA this summer he will end up getting paid like one too.   That means 5-6.5 x 4-6 years depending term and clauses.   To me he's a lot like Bishop in Dallas without the miles and health issues - and we should get at least three prime years out of him yet.   Demko may or may not get his chance to be a number one in this league depending on his development and if he stays here.   Doubt he takes the net from Markstrom any time soon, if ever given the boffo contract coming up.   Have no idea where JB is getting the money to pay him and JV, re-sign or replace 2/3 of our right side as well but he's said we don't have any cap issues going forward so he must have a plan.  LE hanging them up would solve a lot - 8 million for him and Schaller would be exactly about what it would take.   

 

[JM_]

12 hours ago, Brad Marchand said:

More stats for context:

 

The Canucks are 16th in the NHL in 5 on 5 high-danger scoring chances per 60 (10.5). The league high is 12.49

The Canucks are 22nd in the NHL in 5 on 5 high-danger scoring chances against per 60 (11.02). The league high is 12.71

The Canucks are 23rd in the NHL in HDCF% per 60 (48.81%). The league low is 39.24%

 

They would obviously like their numbers to be better, especially with regards to their most recent stretch of games, but the overall numbers could be worse.

 

What I notice consistently is that the players tend to collapse heavily to the middle of the ice to protect the slot and tend to back off on zone entries to avoid getting beat to the outside. The breakdowns in their own zone have become more frequent as of late, but the overall strategy seems to be to allow teams to shoot the puck as long as it's not from close to the slot. Markstrom's rebound control is a key part to this strategy working. I would definitely like to see them apply more pressure in their own zone, mind you.

yeah it certainly seems to be the case. Working so far. I do worry about how teams like Winnipeg just cut right through it and how this will look in the playoffs, but I guess we'll have to worry about that if and when that actually happens. 

 

[Alflives]

13 hours ago, Brad Marchand said:

More stats for context:

 

The Canucks are 16th in the NHL in 5 on 5 high-danger scoring chances per 60 (10.5). The league high is 12.49

The Canucks are 22nd in the NHL in 5 on 5 high-danger scoring chances against per 60 (11.02). The league high is 12.71

The Canucks are 23rd in the NHL in HDCF% per 60 (48.81%). The league low is 39.24%

 

They would obviously like their numbers to be better, especially with regards to their most recent stretch of games, but the overall numbers could be worse.

 

What I notice consistently is that the players tend to collapse heavily to the middle of the ice to protect the slot and tend to back off on zone entries to avoid getting beat to the outside. The breakdowns in their own zone have become more frequent as of late, but the overall strategy seems to be to allow teams to shoot the puck as long as it's not from close to the slot. Markstrom's rebound control is a key part to this strategy working. I would definitely like to see them apply more pressure in their own zone, mind you.

Who has the puck with all these shots coming our way?  The other team, right?  How is not having the puck a good thing? 

[BobbyClarke]

I can't help but think this is the type of team that would thrive under Vigneault.

[lmm]

23 hours ago, VegasCanuck said:

Too many guys who are shot suppressors are out of the lineup. We miss Motte more than most people realize.

 

that may be true, but given his injury history, one wonders how much we can rely on Motte ?

[VegasCanuck]

17 minutes ago, lmm said:

that may be true, but given his injury history, one wonders how much we can rely on Motte ?

You don't necessarily rely on anyone, you keep developing guys who can fill in for any role. That's what makes teams successful in the playoffs, the ability to replace at any position, with someone else who is able to do the same job.

 

Motte has lots up offensive upside, but he's really focused at playing that energy game that can change the whole flow on the ice.

[stawns]

There's four reasons why the possession numbers and high shot totals don't bother me. 

 

First, they have been doing a much better job of sealing off the high percentage scoring zones in the last month.  Teams are having a more difficult time getting into prime scoring areas and end up skating miles on the perimeter and finally putting a low percentage shot at Markstrom.  That's exactly what that system is designed to do.  

 

Second, they are good shot blockers, but they are learning that they only have to block high percentage shots and can let Marky see the low percentage ones, which he can easily stop.  Obviously they're not perfect and there'll always be instances where Marky will be screened, but it feels like that's becoming less frequent.

 

Third, Market's rebound control has been excellent this year and when there is a rebound, the skaters are more in control and calm than they were for the first half of the season.  As they get more comfortable, the collapse system becomes more effective at controlling rebounds and eliminating second or third chances.

 

Finally, they know how to make the better use of their scoring chances.  This team doesn't need a ton of zone time or a high shot total to outscore opponents.  They play like they know they can capitalize when the opponent coughs the puck up and they transition up the ice.  You can feel the confidence they have in their ability to make the opponent pay.

 

Ultimately, I'm not a huge fan of their defensive system and theres not a lot of wiggle room, they have to be on top of it every shift.  Still, despite the high shot totals and time spent in their own end, there havent been many games where I feel the outcome is in jeopardy, it always feels like they are comfortable in that system.

 

[lmm]

On 2/14/2020 at 9:45 AM, VegasCanuck said:

You don't necessarily rely on anyone, you keep developing guys who can fill in for any role. That's what makes teams successful in the playoffs, the ability to replace at any position, with someone else who is able to do the same job.

 

Motte has lots up offensive upside, but he's really focused at playing that energy game that can change the whole flow on the ice.

to paraphrase ken Dryden, " when you can't rely on a teammate, you just forget he is there"

re: the oft-injured Rick Chartraw 

[Angry Goose]

On 2/13/2020 at 7:10 PM, Brad Marchand said:

 

 

What I notice consistently is that the players tend to collapse heavily to the middle of the ice to protect the slot and tend to back off on zone entries to avoid getting beat to the outside. The breakdowns in their own zone have become more frequent as of late, but the overall strategy seems to be to allow teams to shoot the puck as long as it's not from close to the slot. Markstrom's rebound control is a key part to this strategy working. I would definitely like to see them apply more pressure in their own zone, mind you.

The scheme is sometimes called a 'box + 1' where the weak side winger sags towards the middle.  

 

They are at their worst when a winger fails to make a key play to get the puck out (esp. after the D/C have grinded it out to get the puck up along the wall) and they are gassed, opponent changes off etc.  

 

When it comes to pressure, I think the Canucks do a pretty decent job down low with their D/C.  How good the wingers are seems to vary game to game

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, SILLY GOOSE said:

The scheme is sometimes called a 'box + 1' where the weak side winger sags towards the middle.  

 

They are at their worst when a winger fails to make a key play to get the puck out (esp. after the D/C have grinded it out to get the puck up along the wall) and they are gassed, opponent changes off etc.  

 

When it comes to pressure, I think the Canucks do a pretty decent job down low with their D/C.  How good the wingers are seems to vary game to game

Our current systems make us too vulnerable to other teams having puck possession.  Systems need to change, especially the forecheck.  Our current 2-1-2 (when the other Team has clear head up puck on stick possession) is killing us.  That’s 100% on Green.  

[Angry Goose]

16 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Our current systems make us too vulnerable to other teams having puck possession.  Systems need to change, especially the forecheck.  Our current 2-1-2 (when the other Team has clear head up puck on stick possession) is killing us.  That’s 100% on Green.  

It emphasizes pace and good puck management Alf.  When they are on their game the schemes arnt ever an issue.  When the Canucks arnt managing the puck well, they make it that much harder on themselves.  

 

I'm not too worried about it.  The roster will continue to evolve and with it how the Canucks play overall

[wai_lai416]

On 2/13/2020 at 10:31 AM, Phat Fingers said:

I would be alot more concerned about relying on a young goalie with a seemingly high number of concussions as a long term strategy.  

 

Markstrom is earning a substantial raise.  It is obvious to everyone that the Canucks cannot go beyond a certain number due to the Lou retirement and the recapture.  

 

If that means Marky walks, the  there is nothing we can do.  Its BS and should be rescinded but in the immortal words of Jared McCann, 'It is what it is.'

 

Marky has a choice, go for the money or the glory.  If he stays it will be a 6x6 full NTC type deal.  That means Demko is exposed.  Marky has earned that type of deal and has been our best player for the past 1.5 years easily.  He has added some muscle and seems able to handle a lot of minutes and gets better with more work. 

 

Mikey is looking alot like a goalie of the future type as well.  Even as a back up I see him as being able to fill Demko's shoes fairly well.  

 

Keep the MVP.  

lol 6 years for a goalie past 30 no thx. plenty of example out there as soon as goalie past 30 they start declining.. carey price.. bobrovsky.. Schneider etc etc.. some maybe due to injury.. but majority of the time it's just they are slower... 7 of the top 10 goalies in gaa are all under the age of 30 and 14 of the 20.. smiliar in sv%. i prefer not pay a goalie over 30 to a long term contract with a unmovable salary and NTC and risk he declines in the 2nd or 3rd year into his contract and burn the prime years of the core with another bad contract.

[Phat Fingers]

32 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

lol 6 years for a goalie past 30 no thx. plenty of example out there as soon as goalie past 30 they start declining.. carey price.. bobrovsky.. Schneider etc etc.. some maybe due to injury.. but majority of the time it's just they are slower... 7 of the top 10 goalies in gaa are all under the age of 30 and 14 of the 20.. smiliar in sv%. i prefer not pay a goalie over 30 to a long term contract with a unmovable salary and NTC and risk he declines in the 2nd or 3rd year into his contract and burn the prime years of the core with another bad contract.

6 for 4-6 years isn't an anchor.  Look at the insanely long list of goalies playing well into their late 30's.  I can go through the list but it's long and has alot of HOFers on it.  

 

Let's just throw out the 10m for Price.  That is 40% higher than anything we are talking about.  

 

The alternative path is to trust the future of the franchise to a yet to be proven, concussion prone netminder.  Demko is a good goalie, but in all the talk about a goalie of the future, we have 2, one in Utica.  

 

Signing Marky would make Demko expendable, that is the only downside.  

 

Paying 6m for a guy that is just now hitting his prime is fine by me.  The Vezina talk is valid.  Let's say he slows down in 4 years as Mikey (hopefully) is taking a larger, yet affordable, chunk of the net time. 

 

It isn't that 6m is too much to pay a goalie, it is how much does a good tandem cost? 

 

This year the nucks got a bargain.  This year it's 4.75, not even market rate for a quality starter. 

 

If Marky stays at 6m, then that will become 7.05 next year, still decent for the tandem of the quality we have.  

 

That number could well remain static if Demko is moved and Mikey can continue to grow in our system.  

 

7.05 for the next 3 years is 8.3% of the current cap spent on goalie.  If we can't afford that, then we have way, way bigger problems than goalies.  

 

We won't get better goaltending for less money than we are currently playing and even at 7.05m I doubt we get better quality starts for the cost.  

 

We have Demko and Mikey as cost effective backups for the next 3 years.  By then one of the 2 will be ready to take over more and more games.  My money is on Mikey, as he has shown better numbers in the AHL at a younger age.  

 

Miller was 6x3 as a 35 plus  y/o fading goalie, Marky's deal would be expiring at the same age we signed Miller.  

 

I also want to point out, JB can also still draft new goalies into the system.  If we lose Demko or expect too, I would expect him to continue to stock the goalie pipeline.  

 

 

[stawns]

1 hour ago, SILLY GOOSE said:

It emphasizes pace and good puck management Alf.  When they are on their game the schemes arnt ever an issue.  When the Canucks arnt managing the puck well, they make it that much harder on themselves.  

 

I'm not too worried about it.  The roster will continue to evolve and with it how the Canucks play overall

That's the collapse element added to the box plus one system they play.......wingers play down pretty low and, I agree, it makes it tough to get pucks out.  If they're intent on that system, I think they should be icing the puck more when they're in trouble.  They've got three of the best faceoff guys in the league......ice the puck and reset.