Realistically - what assets could Vancouver expect in return in the Trade deadline

[Wanless]

10 hours ago, iinatcc said:

So it seems pretty clear Vancouver is going to be the #6 team in the North Division thus missing the playoffs.

 

This normally means it's possible for Vancouver to trade players who are in their last year of their contract. 

 

From the list Canucks have Brandon Sutter, Tanner Pearson, Adam Gaudette, Alex Edler, and Jordie Benn 

Naturally I doubt Edler will accept a trade but Benning could convince Edler otherwise. Gaudette  is probably someone Vancouver will still try to develop. And Vancouver should to look to resign Pearson, if only to keep Horvat happy.

 

So, realistically, that probably leaves Sutter and Benn. 

 

Sutter is a solid 4th line center but with an expensive contract and Benn is a bottom 6 d-man. 

Both could prove useful for any team looking for a cup run. 

 

So based on past trade deadlines here's what looks possible.

 

Brandon Sutter - Has a modified NTC and has an expensive contract. Canucks management will really need to convince Sutter to waive his NTC and will probably have to retain 50% of the cap. Of course even if Canucks retain 50% that's still $2.187 Million so it's still quite high. And is there a cup contending team that has a 2 million contract they want to rid of for Sutter? Looking at past trade deadlines it looks like a Vancouver, at most, can get a 4th round pick but probably a 5th is more realistic. But the if Benning is still GM and his trade history Canucks would be lucky to get a 6th.

 

Jordie Benn - Depth Defense is never a bad thing for teams looking for a cup run. And Benn was already traded in a previous TDL with the team getting a 4th and a player. I guess with his trade history and seeing lesser D-men fetching teams a 5th and better D-Men fetching a 3rd ... so I say it's somewhere in the middle with and maybe he fetches a 4th Round Pick.

 

Alexander Edler - A player I keep on wrapping my head around but this trade is almost impossible I think. Could Benning convince Edler to waive his NMC? Would Edler be ok to leave his family especially if it means having to cross the boarder (especially in the playoffs)? This is where Benning can prove his creativeness I think. That said based I can't imagine teams parting anything higher than a 3rd for Edler. Maybe Benning can start a bidding war with teams in the North Division since some playoff teams look to need defense like Toronto, Winnipeg, Edmonton w/o having to quarantine (though the rules could always change and maybe by then it's easier for people in the US to cross Canada). But these Canadian teams are also have no cap space. But if there's a time for Benning to prove he can be a good trade negotiator this is it. 

 

At the trade deadline teams don't need 2 mil in space to fit in a 2 mil player.

 

They need to have enough space to fit the remainder of the years cap. So say the deadline is 2/3s of the way through the season they only need space for 1/3 of the contract or in the case of the 2 million dollar player it would be 666,666 in space.

 

So finding a team that can fit Sutter and Benn shouldn't be hard, it's finding a team that wants them

[Smashian Kassian]

Can't see anyone taking Baertschi. If they could've moved him they would've by now. 

[Gurn]

2 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

Can't see anyone taking Baertschi. If they could've moved him they would've by now. 

You are likely right, but things might change by deadline.

Perhaps some team gets a few injuries on their forward lines and decides Sven can play a bit till the team gets healthy.

[Provost]

The great thing is the deadline is basically right at the end of the season, so cap hits mean nothing... it will all be about playoff depth.  The only key is it would be guys on expiring contracts as not many teams will want players with term left.

Sutter - 3rd/4th round pick
Baertschi - late pick or nothing
Pearson - 3rd round pick
Benn - 4th/5th round pick
Hamonic - Nothing unless Calgary or Edmonton wants him... since he won't move anywhere else

Beagle - Late pick if someone was willing to take on his extra year

Virtanen - Late pick if someone was willing to take on the extra year, probably require money coming back with similar term

On the downside, how to wrangle the trades with border restrictions will be tough.  At least the quarantine rules going down to the US are more limited than coming this way.  We might be the only possible trading partners for other Canadian teams as they wouldn't lose the 2 weeks of quarantine time and that could inflate the value of our assets, it will only be us and Ottawa likely in selling mode, and 4-5 suitors looking to add depth.

It would be really important to add as many picks as possible as those will be our currency to pick up assets that other teams would be willing to give up for cheap due to not having enough expansion protection slots to keep them.  With a few 3rd round picks we could add three #4D to entirely revamp our back end.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Provost

[MikeyD]

9 hours ago, DefCon1 said:

Not sure why people are ragging on Pearson? Its bad enough to let Toffoli go, losing Pearson would just make us weaker. Remember we dont even have a leivo or Ferland to fall back on and I rather have Podkolzin playing 3rd line before being moved up.

Because he's taking up a spot he's not good enough for. He's a 3rd line singer at best. We need a desperate upgrade to move anywhere. A 2nd line player should have some play driving ability. Tanner Pearson has zero of it. He's a benificiary of his line mates most nights. 

[MikeyD]

4 minutes ago, Provost said:

The great thing is the deadline is basically right at the end of the season, so cap hits mean nothing... it will all be about playoff depth.  The only key is it would be guys on expiring contracts as not many teams will want players with term left.

Sutter - 3rd/4th round pick
Baertschi - late pick or nothing
Pearson - 3rd round pick
Benn - 4th/5th round pick
Hamonic - Nothing unless Calgary or Edmonton wants him... since he won't move anywhere else

Beagle - Late pick if someone was willing to take on his extra year

Virtanen - Late pick if someone was willing to take on the extra year, probably require money coming back with similar term

On the downside, how to wrangle the trades with border restrictions will be tough.  At least the quarantine rules going down to the US are more limited than coming this way.  We might be the only possible trading partners for other Canadian teams as they wouldn't lose the 2 weeks of quarantine time and that could inflate the value of our assets, it will only be us and Ottawa likely in selling mode, and 4-5 suitors looking to add depth.

It would be really important to add as many picks as possible as those will be our currency to pick up assets that other teams would be willing to give up for cheap due to not having enough expansion protection slots to keep them.  With a few 3rd round picks we could add three #4D to entirely revamp our back end.

 

You people are high for over valuing our players. Sutter at best would garner a 5th round pick and that's if Benning bamboozled somebody. Pearson isn't getting a 3rd either. 

 

Benn would need to play amazing for the rest of the season to even be in conversation for a trade. 

[GritGrinder]

22 minutes ago, gurn said:

He set a career high for points, but not for goals or assists.

In only 69 games. Over an 82 game sched he would have set all 3.

[c00kies]

5 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Because he's taking up a spot he's not good enough for. He's a 3rd line singer at best. We need a desperate upgrade to move anywhere. A 2nd line player should have some play driving ability. Tanner Pearson has zero of it. He's a benificiary of his line mates most nights. 

I agree. When I consider top 6 forwards on the team: Pettersson, Horvat, Miller, and Boeser. Hoggie is okay, though I'm not sure about his skill, but he can be a Burrows type complementary player. Pearson is better suited as a top 9 forward, as he doesn't have the skill of a true top 6 forward, but he also isn't that Burrows/Hoglander type player either; he's like a more skilled Baertschi.

 

There is a role for Pearson, but I think it's as a 3rd line scorer...we just don't have the skill upfront to push him there.

[Provost]

8 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

You people are high for over valuing our players. Sutter at best would garner a 5th round pick and that's if Benning bamboozled somebody. Pearson isn't getting a 3rd either. 

 

Benn would need to play amazing for the rest of the season to even be in conversation for a trade. 

Have you ever paid attention to a trade deadline before?  Our players aren't worth that right now, but values are hugely inflated at the deadline and a 3rd round pick is the going rate for a plug players.

Fantenberg got a 4th round pick.  Lovejoy (with a sum total of 2 points on the season) got a good prospect in Connor Carrick and a 3rd.  Adam McQuaid (with 2 points on the season) returned a 4th, 7th, and a 2nd round picked prospect Julius Bergman.

A guy like Sutter is a perfect deadline pickup as a veteran with size and a defensive profile.  Benn similarly so.

 

[appleboy]

I think it is a what you see is what you got scenario. I doubt there will be any trades this year. I doubt they will pull any assets from the expiring UFA's.  Partly because of covid and partly because I think that Jim is a lame duck GM.

[Phil_314]

10 hours ago, DefCon1 said:

Not sure why people are ragging on Pearson? Its bad enough to let Toffoli go, losing Pearson would just make us weaker. Remember we dont even have a leivo or Ferland to fall back on and I rather have Podkolzin playing 3rd line before being moved up.

I'm not ragging on Pearson, I like what he brings (heavy two-way game).  It's just that depending on how the season goes, if the team proves to take a step back and there's suitors for him, I'd rather not risk management pulling what they did in past seasons and TDL's (prioritize Petey/ Hughes/ Demko to the point where guys like him and Edler are tired of waiting, or end up not trading nor re-signing, like they did with Vrbata and Hamhuis).  If there's value in them yet and possible UFA signings can replace their value (and that signing can buffer Podkolzin for a year), then I'd be down to get a free draft pick.  

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, GritGrinder said:

Show me one UFA in the history of sports that sets career highs 2 years in a row and then takes a pay cut. I don't care if its a pandemic or not; I could easily see Seattle offering Pearson 4 years and $20m. A cup winner that Seattle fans will know from following the Canucks and Seattle will need to get to the cap floor. My god some of you on here freaking out the Pearson might get a $1m raise from a GM out there is really weird.

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/mike-hoffman

[Gurn]

44 minutes ago, GritGrinder said:

In only 69 games. Over an 82 game sched he would have set all 3.

Have you tried calling Jake Virtanen a twenty goal scorer on this site? 

Over 82 he might/likely would have set his bests.

[GritGrinder]

1 minute ago, gurn said:

Have you tried calling Jake Virtanen a twenty goal scorer on this site? 

Over 82 he might/likely would have set his bests.

Are you kidding. I rarely ever mention Jake "1426 CDC forum pages" Virtanen for fear my laptop will spontaneously combust.

[flickyoursedin]

Edler probably doesn’t want to leave but there’s always a chance. Tell him you’ll target him in the summer for another 1-2 year deal but if he wants a chance at a cup it could be a win win scenario for both parties. I believe in the youth with Hoglander and Podkolzin so I would look to move Pearson if somebody is willing to give up a 2nd or late 1rst. People on here are crazy saying for a 3rd or 4th round pick. I think they forget how much prices go up at the deadline. Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman returned 1rst round picks. Patrick Marleau got a 3rd round pick. I think if you retained 50% on Sutter you could get a 2nd round pick from a team looking to improve the pk and bottom 6 center.

[iinatcc]

2 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

Can't see anyone taking Baertschi. If they could've moved him they would've by now. 

I am scared that a team actually takes Baertschi but only because Benning took a 4th line player with a $2.5 Million cap hit for 2 years because of the players "Meat and potatoes player". 

[MikeyD]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

Have you ever paid attention to a trade deadline before?  Our players aren't worth that right now, but values are hugely inflated at the deadline and a 3rd round pick is the going rate for a plug players.

Fantenberg got a 4th round pick.  Lovejoy (with a sum total of 2 points on the season) got a good prospect in Connor Carrick and a 3rd.  Adam McQuaid (with 2 points on the season) returned a 4th, 7th, and a 2nd round picked prospect Julius Bergman.

A guy like Sutter is a perfect deadline pickup as a veteran with size and a defensive profile.  Benn similarly so.

 

While I agree we have to consider, if you were the gm on another team, would you go out and seek these players? And if so, what about them would make you want to pay that much for them? 

[Junkyard Dog]

8 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

While I agree we have to consider, if you were the gm on another team, would you go out and seek these players? And if so, what about them would make you want to pay that much for them? 

Depends. I am not sure the Flames would like to see the Habs get a Pearson or a Edler over them for example. 
 

Much easier to trade within the division. Waiting longer when 3/4 of the season is done by TD wouldn’t be a good move when you can save yourself a week. 
 

I am not gonna assume the players worth since that’s hard to predict but I presume it with how the division is set up it could make for a sellers market for teams within the division. 

[Amebushi]

I suspect there will be less over all movement at the TDL than we are used to but there will still be some. I could see Sutter getting a decent return. Always remember that teams buying believe they will win. This means that third is a late one (if it goes to plan). A second rounder for him is not completely absurd. Benn is exactly the type of player a cash strapped team would like to add as depth for a run. Wont bring back a huge return but something is better than nothing. Virtanen is still one that moving scares me. It isn’t that he has proven anything worth keeping him here it’s the fear that he will change teams and figure it all out. He has so much ability that just doesn’t seem to work here. I doubt it ever will come together here but very well might elsewhere. I’d be open to trading him but nor just a low pick. Either a prospect or quality pick or both. 

[Provost]

56 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

While I agree we have to consider, if you were the gm on another team, would you go out and seek these players? And if so, what about them would make you want to pay that much for them? 

Because they want to win the Cup?  
4-5 teams are going to be in an arms race to beef up depth for a playoff run.

 

This year it is even more important because getting one of these guys also stops a direct rival from getting them.

 

Sutter and Pearson are direct upgrades to the very bottom of most rosters, and are certainly upgrades as injury insurance.

 

As I noted above, the proof is in the pudding with what comparable players have gotten as returns at the deadline.

 

It is still pretty stunning to me how picks are thrown around like Canadian Tire money at the deadline, but the exact same pick two months later is treated like gold.  It happens every year.

 

Benning was happy to throw in a 2nd and a 4th as sweeteners to get Toffoli for a handful of games (on top of a very good prospect).   Yet in the offseason a 2nd round pick wasn’t even going to be considered to get out of a bad contract which could have allowed us the cap space to keep Toffoli long term.

 

For once it would be nice to exploit that inequality of valuation rather than be the victim of it.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Provost