Popular Post Rindiculous Posted October 11, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2021 So because I’ve been seeing so many negative threads created over the past 24 hours, I’ve decided we should have a positive one to balance those out. While we didn’t get any results in the preseason, THEY DON’T MATTER and there are a ton of positives to take away from this preseason that makes me more excited for this season, than any other since 2011. 1. This is my biggest one. All of our possession numbers were excellent, especially in the last 4 games of the preseason (WPG, SEA, EDM, EDM). Our expected goals, corsi, and high danger corsi all hover around 60% for the entire preseason, and over the last 4 games they were all around 70% which means in those games we should have had 7 goals for the opponents 3 at 5 on 5 play. In the last game we had 7 players over 90% expected goals which means when they were on the ice we should have outscored the Oilers 9 goals for every 1 goal they scored. Because that didn’t happen we have the lowest PDO in the entire league for the preseason which basically means we were the unluckiest team in the entire league. PDO always regresses to the mean with slight variation if your goaltender is really good or if you have high quality shooters which I believe we have both so we should really have a high PDO on average which means we were even more snake bitten. For reference on how good our underlying numbers were this preseason, only the Colorado Avalanche had better underlying numbers during the entire previous season at just over 60% and it’s worth noting we generally dressed rosters with less opening night talent than the opposing team on most occasions. This makes me super excited that we not only are a playoff contender but could contend for one of the best teams in the league. Our possession numbers over the past 5+ years have been putrid to say the least and usually these numbers indicate if you’re a good or bad team with some exceptions (WPG is consistently the worst team in terms of possession by a large margin in the NHL however they always seem to be a playoff contender. Shows you how damn good Hellebuyck is.) 2. I was super skeptical of OEL initially because I never watch AZ games and I heard he was bad and saw his underlying numbers were terrible. However after watching the preseason, he looks far and above the best defenseman on our roster. We could have very well brought in a Norris caliber defenseman for pennies on the dollar this offseason and both partners he’s been with, either Poolman or Myers, he’s been absolutely excellent with. He’s got the best underlying numbers on the team all hovering between 70-75% (Pettersson is second with his numbers between 65-70%). For comparison, the best expected goals by a defenseman with more than 35 games last year was Devon Toews at 63%. He sees the ice well and I don’t believe has made a single mistake while on the ice seeing as he has not been on the ice for a single goal against all preseason. Now while those numbers are unsustainable and would regress it is really great to see how well he’s been playing. 3. We have a deeper forward group than ever and might have a better defence core than we’ve had in a long time. We have 8 top 6 quality forwards that can step up into a larger role anytime. On offence we should not get derailed by injuries because we are so deep there. Even if our entire top line goes down to injury, we still would have a good chance to win games most nights because of our top end depth at forward. Defense is a bit more of a question mark. If the right side gets ravaged by injuries and Myers or Poolman go down, we could be in for a bit of a rough road. However, when healthy our defense core compliments each other quite well. We have the offensive firepower on the left side, with the defensive mainstays complimenting on the right side. Imagine saying that we can have Hughes or OEL out on the ice for 50 minutes of any given game. Does that give anyone else chills or just me? Either way, I’m super stoked for the season to get under way, more excited than I’ve ever been in my teenage to adult life for a Canucks team (yah I was just a young 12 year old during our 2011 cup run). I just hate how many people are just looking at the results of our games this preseason which don’t even matter in the slightest and are not even paying attention to how well this team has played (which is really damn good by the eye test and underlying numbers) and then think the sky is falling when it really is us just getting our bad luck out of the way in the preseason so we get lots of good luck for the rest of the season . Anyway, only a couple more days of waiting and GO CANUCKS GO! 7 3 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post -AJ- Posted October 11, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2021 I don't put a lot of stock into the pre-season, but I will say that I've been pleasantly surprised with OEL so far. I will be crossing my fingers that it continues as he faces the elite forwards in the NHL. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU SERIOUS Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Rindiculous said: So because I’ve been seeing so many negative threads created over the past 24 hours, I’ve decided we should have a positive one to balance those out. While we didn’t get any results in the preseason, THEY DON’T MATTER and there are a ton of positives to take away from this preseason that makes me more excited for this season, than any other since 2011. 1. This is my biggest one. All of our possession numbers were excellent, especially in the last 4 games of the preseason (WPG, SEA, EDM, EDM). Our expected goals, corsi, and high danger corsi all hover around 60% for the entire preseason, and over the last 4 games they were all around 70% which means in those games we should have had 7 goals for the opponents 3 at 5 on 5 play. In the last game we had 7 players over 90% expected goals which means when they were on the ice we should have outscored the Oilers 9 goals for every 1 goal they scored. Because that didn’t happen we have the lowest PDO in the entire league for the preseason which basically means we were the unluckiest team in the entire league. PDO always regresses to the mean with slight variation if your goaltender is really good or if you have high quality shooters which I believe we have both so we should really have a high PDO on average which means we were even more snake bitten. For reference on how good our underlying numbers were this preseason, only the Colorado Avalanche had better underlying numbers during the entire previous season at just over 60% and it’s worth noting we generally dressed rosters with less opening night talent than the opposing team on most occasions. This makes me super excited that we not only are a playoff contender but could contend for one of the best teams in the league. Our possession numbers over the past 5+ years have been putrid to say the least and usually these numbers indicate if you’re a good or bad team with some exceptions (WPG is consistently the worst team in terms of possession by a large margin in the NHL however they always seem to be a playoff contender. Shows you how damn good Hellebuyck is.) 2. I was super skeptical of OEL initially because I never watch AZ games and I heard he was bad and saw his underlying numbers were terrible. However after watching the preseason, he looks far and above the best defenseman on our roster. We could have very well brought in a Norris caliber defenseman for pennies on the dollar this offseason and both partners he’s been with, either Poolman or Myers, he’s been absolutely excellent with. He’s got the best underlying numbers on the team all hovering between 70-75% (Pettersson is second with his numbers between 65-70%). For comparison, the best expected goals by a defenseman with more than 35 games last year was Devon Toews at 63%. He sees the ice well and I don’t believe has made a single mistake while on the ice seeing as he has not been on the ice for a single goal against all preseason. Now while those numbers are unsustainable and would regress it is really great to see how well he’s been playing. 3. We have a deeper forward group than ever and might have a better defence core than we’ve had in a long time. We have 8 top 6 quality forwards that can step up into a larger role anytime. On offence we should not get derailed by injuries because we are so deep there. Even if our entire top line goes down to injury, we still would have a good chance to win games most nights because of our top end depth at forward. Defense is a bit more of a question mark. If the right side gets ravaged by injuries and Myers or Poolman go down, we could be in for a bit of a rough road. However, when healthy our defense core compliments each other quite well. We have the offensive firepower on the left side, with the defensive mainstays complimenting on the right side. Imagine saying that we can have Hughes or OEL out on the ice for 50 minutes of any given game. Does that give anyone else chills or just me? Either way, I’m super stoked for the season to get under way, more excited than I’ve ever been in my teenage to adult life for a Canucks team (yah I was just a young 12 year old during our 2011 cup run). I just hate how many people are just looking at the results of our games this preseason which don’t even matter in the slightest and are not even paying attention to how well this team has played (which is really damn good by the eye test and underlying numbers) and then think the sky is falling when it really is us just getting our bad luck out of the way in the preseason so we get lots of good luck for the rest of the season . Anyway, only a couple more days of waiting and GO CANUCKS GO! Always refreshing to see some Young Bucks full of P1$$ & Vinagar seeing the Canucks from a relatively short time span. Wait until you've been thru 50+ plus years of disappointment and you'll appreciate why some people have become a bit skeptical and impatient waiting to see them win a cup before they die. No matter, I like your enthusiasm and I do actually agree with you that I too expect this season to be somewhat better than last year. Fingers crossed! So here's to you laddy! Go Canucks go! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 52 minutes ago, RU SERIOUS said: Always refreshing to see some Young Bucks full of P1$$ & Vinagar seeing the Canucks from a relatively short time span. Wait until you've been thru 50+ plus years of disappointment and you'll appreciate why some people have become a bit skeptical and impatient waiting to see them win a cup before they die. No matter, I like your enthusiasm and I do actually agree with you that I too expect this season to be somewhat better than last year. Fingers crossed! So here's to you laddy! Go Canucks go! Thanks for providing some perspective.. I absolutely get it. Haven't watched them as a long as you, despite being around for close to that long. The only teams i've watched with this much young talent was the early 90's one. Linden, Bure, Nedved, Ronning and later Gelinas and Hedican ... Horvat, BB, EP, QHs ... maybe Podz ... Wasn't ever that into the WCE era although I probably saw more live games during the Keenan/WCE years then since. Sedins teams of course gave me hope, but the way it ended wasn't fun. Being a top team for five years and really a top three team as far as regular seasons go over a 14 year period (with SJ and Detroit) was always going to create a long drawn out losing period in the 30 plus team cap era...that wasn't hard to predict. Detroit is still going through their "rebuild"...and SJ is stuck in the mud and will be for a long time yet - no pool like us back when this one started and aging contracts. Screwed they are, and screwed we were too, paying the piper hurts. No team will ever see a quick rebuild like the one Keenan forced on us. It now takes 5-10 years and the scorched earth ones don't always take. CAR missed 10 in a row ... where is Buffalo at now? EDM finally got out of theirs. TO floundered forever. Their latest one is one of their best teams the last 50 years lol....poor them. I want a cup too, as do we all. And now it's tougher then ever given the number of teams out there going for it. Guess we will have to wait and see. That's all we can do, chin up fellow long timer. If things work out we have a chance with this core...at the start i figured it would always be parts of this one and the next one just based on history alone. Each final appearance takes longer to get too..we've done better then i thought we'd manage, might seem pessimistic but it's just realism. At least with parity a team has a chance every time we make the playoffs. Last time we showed well so reasons for optimism there. Last season was Keenan era bad to start lol....change is coming if that repeats itself but i doubt it will. At least we have hockey back soon... and for me at least, i'm glad the Sedin era(s) are finally done. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 As for the OP, well done showing us the pre-season looks like we've finally started changing the tide on spending too much time in our own zone. Like AJ i won't read too much into that. Too many fringe guys trying to win a job. OEL for sure is looking great....and for sure there is no need to hit the panic button. This season should be one of growth for the core. We finally have a forward group we should be proud of. Demko is also finally going to be able to show what he can do over a 50-60 game regular season too. Lots to look forward too. Playoffs for sure should be the goal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyNux Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 2 hours ago, -AJ- said: I don't put a lot of stock into the pre-season, but I will say that I've been pleasantly surprised with OEL so far. I will be crossing my fingers that it continues as he faces the elite forwards in the NHL. Is there a database of pre-season records? It would be interesting to see teams who played well in the preseason and if it translated to regular season success. I have a feeling they don't correlate but if they did, oh boy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chickenspear Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 2 hours ago, AbbyNux said: Is there a database of pre-season records? It would be interesting to see teams who played well in the preseason and if it translated to regular season success. I have a feeling they don't correlate but if they did, oh boy. I read somewhere (can't remember) that 2010-2011 preseason we went 0-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maginator Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Thanks for the post, I appreciate your positivity. I'm not one to look into advanced stats or analytics.. I'm more of an eye test guy. However, I don't discredit them - and believe they still hold some weight. I am super pumped for the season. I absolutely agree that we are going to suprise the Pacific this season and either finish first or second. It seems like we've found a diamond in the rough in OEL and this season will commence a resurrection for both him and the team. Super pumped, let's gooooo! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 OEL has looked great so far! OEL and Myers will prove to be a great 1st pairing. Big improvement on Edler and Myers IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GB5 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 (edited) OEL has been great, he is very poised in his play, Forward depth is very good As far as possession goes, perimeter play doesn't cut it for me. Someone needs to take the puck to the net and I have been seeing Podz start doing that a bit more in his last two games but other than that there seems to be a lot of reliance on trying to snipe from the slot area instead of getting the dirty goals from two feet out so I think this stat can be a bit misleading when it comes to how well the team is actually attacking. Edited October 11, 2021 by GarthButcher5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil_314 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 @Canuck Clay where you at with the positive takes, brother?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Playoff Beered Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Chickenspear said: I read somewhere (can't remember) that 2010-2011 preseason we went 0-6 I also read that somewhere, but I went and checked, we finished the preseason with a record of 3–5. Edited October 11, 2021 by Playoff Beered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70seven Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 I dislike the oel myers pairing. I want to see oel with the puck more. Myers is a puck hog… which is fine with another partner imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rindiculous Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 5 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said: Always refreshing to see some Young Bucks full of P1$$ & Vinagar seeing the Canucks from a relatively short time span. Wait until you've been thru 50+ plus years of disappointment and you'll appreciate why some people have become a bit skeptical and impatient waiting to see them win a cup before they die. No matter, I like your enthusiasm and I do actually agree with you that I too expect this season to be somewhat better than last year. Fingers crossed! So here's to you laddy! Go Canucks go! Haha yah I get it. Definitely the older you get the more cynical because of lack of success. Although half my life I have been a big fan of a team that has been god awful so I am surprised I usually am as optimistic as I am. Ahhh how naive I was back when they were good thinking making the playoffs were just a formality because they had easily made them every time except once since I got into hockey in 2007. Although when I’m optimistic I usually like having some basis. I tend to be a very heavy stats guy. I do believe the eye test is important to get the full story of the player, however stats will generally show you if a team is good. Every year the Canucks have always been shelled in possession even during the 2019-20 year where they were in the playoffs at the pause. This year it looks like it could be very different which makes me more excited than ever because in the stats era, I’ve never actually seen a Canucks team with good possession numbers before. So yah pardon my excitement I’m crossing fingers for a very good year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddieVedder Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 1 hour ago, GarthButcher5 said: OEL has been great, he is very poised in his play, Forward depth is very good As far as possession goes, perimeter play doesn't cut it for me. Someone needs to take the puck to the net and I have been seeing Podz start doing that a bit more in his last two games but other than that there seems to be a lot of reliance on trying to snipe from the slot area instead of getting the dirty goals from two feet out so I think this stat can be a bit misleading when it comes to how well the team is actually attacking. OEL has looked like a legit #1. Isnt overly physical but he plays smart in own end. Has that lidstromesque light quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tas Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 I hope your house is made of bricks and not straw, because the wolves will be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 1 minute ago, tas said: I hope your house is made of bricks and not straw, because the wolves will be coming. meh, the "wolves" around here are about as scary as a group of furries at comicon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-DLC- Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 7 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said: Wait until you've been thru 50+ plus years of disappointment and you'll appreciate why some people have become a bit skeptical and impatient waiting to see them win a cup before they die. I appreciate this, I do. My Mom was a diehard fan and passed away (too young) and never got to see that moment. But it's all the ones in between that matter/you remember. The cup is the icing on the cake and the destination. But there's a helluva journey along the way so I've learned to just appreciate the ride and take in the scenery. Maybe Mom's a big part of that for me - that I have so many fond memories of us that are related to this team. My kids too. Nothing will ever strip that away or diminish the value of it - it's part of our family history and I embrace it. Sure, it sucks that we haven't had that moment of relief and satisfaction....just will make it that much sweeter when we do. I like your attitude...you accept it for what it is. Many don't and they've soured and it's all negative. They use the "can't" moments to erase all the ones where it was still glorious and fun to be part of it all. Some are more intent on proving they're right in a negative stance than seeking out what's positive in it. Life is what we make it and there's been some great hockey despite our team not (yet) getting to celebrate as champions. Doesn't mean it has to be homerville (where Deb lives) or all roses and sunshine. There have been valid concerns expressed....my point is more related to dwelling rather than moving past "failures or mistakes". It's very freeing to be able to do so. Face forward not backward because that's what optimism is for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 1 hour ago, JM_ said: meh, the "wolves" around here are about as scary as a group of furries at comicon. very scary indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
combover Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 It’s sunny today. …… positivity!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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