Miller is a core player

[Junkyard Dog]

33 minutes ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

For sure the next few months are for evaluation, and it's more than fair to suspect that there are still some holes to fill.  But the team is playing so differently under Boudreau that a lot of our earlier judgements about the roster may have to be revised:  we'll see.   For example, with Hughes playing at borderline Norris level, I'm not so sure that it's as urgent to get a Tanev-like partner in order to get the best out of him.  It would be nice but he's doing it on his own now

So beyond filling holes, there is the question of what kind of team we're going to be:  high octane run and gun, or a more balanced approach.  That where things get really interesting.

 

The last 6 games are still a short sample size compared to the last few years. Hawks won 5 straight after a new coach and fell back down to earth. We're likely going to as well, especially given the way we have relied on Demko most of these wins. Last SJS game we kind of did but Demko and Miller's line were there. We can't afford any more losing streaks as other teams ahead of us are starting to pick it up and have games in hand.

 

Not to mention the fact that we're COVID stricken and haven't even gotten to the tough part of the schedule yet with rescheduled games likely to make the schedule even more compact. The lack of quality depth scares me if Miller/Horvat/Myers/Hughes/OEL get hurt and we seem to play them probably more than we should. Demko also is gonna go through periods when he comes back down to earth like he did prior to the win streak and when he plays less than elite we usually lose.

 

Odds are stacked up against us and I don't like our chances personally. Future remains to be seen though.

 

We'll see.

[Coconuts]

2 hours ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

That's right.  But we can keep this roster next year if we want to.  The claim was that we can't, which is wrong.  It gets harder the following year with Bo and Miller needing raises but there's the 2.4 M in expiring buyouts, Hamonic's 3M coming off the books, and any raise that there might be in the cap.  Worst case, we might have to move another piece in the 2-3M range to make it work, but that's not the biggest challenge.   

Personally, I don't accept that our RD is the catastrophe some people say it is.  Myers has been great in the new system, Poolman was better until he went down, and Hamonic was fine as a mid-pairing option.  Then there's the crazy depth of Schenn, Burroughs, Juulsen and Bowey, the first three of which can play in the NHL. 

Myers has looked better, but the caveat is that he'll be 32 in February and he'll be 34 by the time his contract expires. How long can he keep this up? Will he be worth retaining? These are questions worth asking. I'm not advocating trading Myers, but those are things worth considering. If we do replace Myers his current cap hit will eat up some, if not all of his replacement's contract. In theory. How many top 4RD go to the UFA and come at a reasonable cost? Can we lure them to Vancouver? Do we have to trade in order to fill that gap?

 

Hamonic will be 32 before next season begins, and given how little we've seen of him this season it's been tough to gauge where he's actually at. Will he be worth retaining? He's got a year left, we could walk. But realistically we're not getting a top 4D to replace him at 3M. Poolman's fine, he'll be here for a while as a serviceable bottom pairing guy who can play higher for a little while if necessary. 

 

Who do we have as RD in our system as of right now? Who's actually close? Woo? Are we going to retain Juulsen and if so what are the expectations? He's a depth guy right now. Burroughs has played admirably but he's a bottom pairing/depth guy at best. Schenn is fine, but let's not pretend he's anything resembling a top 4 guy. 

 

Those questioning our right side absolutely have reason to do so because we'll need to figure out what we're doing with it sooner than later. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Coconuts

[mll]

2 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

 

We will have carryover bonuses of roughly 650k going into next year.

 

Roughly 10.5M in cap to re-sign Boeser who has a 7.5M qualifying offer and is starting to get hot, a solid back up G if we're competing(rookie back up in DiPietro won't cut it for a team looking toward playoffs), and Motte(who is due for a raise as well). That will take up all of that cap. We will be relying on a lot of under 1M dollar players in the bottom 6 as depth pieces.

 

We won't be bringing in any good RD without moving cap out. The holes on the roster that Rutherford mentioned in his first presser are incapable of being addressed without significant cap reallocation.

 

Then you have Hog/Miller/Horvat next year in 2023

 

If you want to keep everybody then you win with the group we have now and nothing else. This roster as it is won't see any serious additions unless the cap is allocated differently.

The 650K are from last season on this season's books - ie there's some cap that has already been blocked but this season's carry over is going to be higher than that.  It's likely going to be above 1.5M but stay below 2M.  Podkolzin (850K) and Höglander (200K) probably won't reach their full targets.  Halak alone is 1.25M in bonus overages and could get an additional 250K if his save percentage is above 0.905.

 

[Junkyard Dog]

22 minutes ago, mll said:

The 650K are from last season on this season's books - ie there's some cap that has already been blocked but this season's carry over is going to be higher than that.  It's likely going to be above 1.5M but stay below 2M.  Podkolzin (850K) and Höglander (200K) probably won't reach their full targets.  Halak alone is 1.25M in bonus overages and could get an additional 250K if his save percentage is above 0.905.

 

Thanks for the correction.

 

1.5-2M carryover into next year is gonna be rough to work around. I could imagine seeing some sort of movement in the off-season even if minor. Otherwise we might lose Motte.

[mll]

46 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Thanks for the correction.

 

1.5-2M carryover into next year is gonna be rough to work around. I could imagine seeing some sort of movement in the off-season even if minor. Otherwise we might lose Motte.

 

 

Their dead cap could stay pretty much the same as this season's but allocated differently.  Their cap space will have to come primarily from roster movements.  

 

Luongo (3.0) + buyouts (550K) + overage (650K)  = 4.2M

vs

Buyouts (2.4M) + Halak (1.25M) + ?  (Halak 250K + Podkolzin + Höglander) =  min 3.65M with 550K to match last seasons' 4.2M.   

 

 

[tas]

6 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

sure miller is a core player right now but is he a core player in the future when he inevitably hits the age of 30 where player slowly starts to decline or in some cases drops off a cliff? how many players in the NHL have we seen signs a big contract at the age of 29-30 and not living up to it not even half way thru the contract? it's too big of a risk and not a risk the canucks are built to be able to withstand.. unless you can get miller to take like a 7mil aav contract which is unlikely i prolly explore moving him for a legit top 4 dman or a 1st ++ that we can use to potentially get a top 4 dman. Miller is important no doubt but i don't think the team falls apart if miller is gone. 

the last 6 stanley cup winners had 8, 4, 9, 6, 10, and 7 players aged 30+, 

[Ilunga]

On 12/17/2021 at 6:38 PM, Coconuts said:

Wrong, as long as Ovi plays he's it. And yes, Ovi's as much as power forward as he is a sniper, physicality has always been a huge part of his game. 

Yep.

I saw what you posted in his appreciation thread.

Not only has he scored 749 goals he has thrown 3,160 hits.

 

He is the all time premier power forward.

 

There has been no other player like him.

[iinatcc]

If we are identifying Miller as a core player I think it would be best to use a template of a multi cup winning core where Miller would have a spot 

 

Looking at some recent examples

 

Tampa

Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, Gourde, and Vasilesky 

 

Blackhawks

Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Sharp, Hossa, and maybe Crawford 

 

Kings 

Brown, Doughty, Kopitar, Quick, Carter, and Voynoy 

 

From the three maybe Miller can take the Hossa slot for the Hawks but this also means each of the players from the Hawks needs to be slotted in. Problem is now I see all the core as lesser versions of what the Hawks had. 

[wai_lai416]

2 hours ago, tas said:

the last 6 stanley cup winners had 8, 4, 9, 6, 10, and 7 players aged 30+, 

Ya and the point is? We already have a 7 85 7.35 7.25 6 5 4.95 + boeser Miller and horvat who's going to be over 7? 

 

6 players vs 9 and they include a Norris caliber dman and an elite top line center and a vezina goalie. We have none of each maybe a vezina goalie. That's not including hogs and podz who are going to be easily 3+ after their elc. Then there's the Pearson Dickenson poolman hamonic contract for the next 2-3 years. We gonna fill the rest of the roster with 900k players? Miller boeser horvat one of them won't be here coz we don't have cap for it. 

[tas]

30 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

Ya and the point is? We already have a 7 85 7.35 7.25 6 5 4.95 + boeser Miller and horvat who's going to be over 7? 

 

6 players vs 9 and they include a Norris caliber dman and an elite top line center and a vezina goalie. We have none of each maybe a vezina goalie. That's not including hogs and podz who are going to be easily 3+ after their elc. Then there's the Pearson Dickenson poolman hamonic contract for the next 2-3 years. We gonna fill the rest of the roster with 900k players? Miller boeser horvat one of them won't be here coz we don't have cap for it. 

you don't think the team is going to make any other roster changes?

[D-Money]

Luongo's recapture penalty ends after this year. That will pay for a Boeser raise. Holtby and Virtanen's buyout ends after next year. That will help pay for a raise to one of Horvat or Miller, but not both... Plus there is Hoglander to pay then as well. Not to mention, extending all 3 pretty much ties our hands to add any other meaningful players.

 

I still think the right move is to trade one of Boeser, Miller, or Horvat. Miller seems like the best choice, because he's oldest, and least likely to want to stay when he hits UFA.

[wai_lai416]

35 minutes ago, tas said:

you don't think the team is going to make any other roster changes?

So what roster move do u expect them to make? Give up asset to move Pearson? That's barely enough to make up for the horvat boeser raise. Or move hamonic and use that money for re signing forwards instead of fixing defense? Pearson hamonic Dickenson poolman are prolly the only one outside of the core that can be moved Pearson Myers and Dickenson will cost the canucks assets just to move with multiple years remaining. Hamonic and poolman u can move but makes 0 sense to weaken the defense even more and spend that on forwards lol. If it's between keeping a 25year old boeser next year vs a 29 Miller. I take boeser + the returns on Miller any day over Miller + boeser return. This team is still years away from being a contender. Unless just sneaking into the playoff is the goal. I don't buy that sneak in the playoff and anything can happen crap. This team isn't built for something like that. Usually those teams have good decent defense and just enough scoring. Our defense is no where close.

[Boudrias]

CAP forecast are based on full arenas is my guess. If Covid shuts them down again owners will be in big trouble. 2 seasons of reduced revenue will put some franchises on the brink IMHO. Where does the money come from? Do they take loans out to cover the losses? It could easily hollow out the NHL over time. 

[mll]

1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

CAP forecast are based on full arenas is my guess. If Covid shuts them down again owners will be in big trouble. 2 seasons of reduced revenue will put some franchises on the brink IMHO. Where does the money come from? Do they take loans out to cover the losses? It could easily hollow out the NHL over time. 

Earlier this year there were reports that the league borrowed 1 billion secured against future league revenue with each team able to withdraw up to 30M each. 

[Ballisticsports.]

On 12/20/2021 at 7:29 AM, Boudrias said:

CAP forecast are based on full arenas is my guess. If Covid shuts them down again owners will be in big trouble. 2 seasons of reduced revenue will put some franchises on the brink IMHO. Where does the money come from? Do they take loans out to cover the losses? It could easily hollow out the NHL over time. 

I agree

2 years of hardly Any fans to what they would have had

Yet players receive 100% their contracts

Not the business agreement that owners envisioned creating a partnership with players

[Alienhuggyflow]

On 12/16/2021 at 10:10 PM, 73 Percent said:

I don't want to trade this guy. 

It baffles me that people think we should because his contract ends in 18 months.

First there has never been a team win a cup with a bunch of RFA players, tho the way people want have teams consisting of all 25 and under you think that's the proven formula for success. 

Sure he's going to get a decent raise and a 6+ year deal that might suck for the last couple but who cares, he wants to be here and IMO is the clear leader on this team.

 

He's also severely underrated,  he literally does everything while being among the top point producers in the league since he got here.

Guys like Pearson, Hamonic,  Dickenson? Plus the cap going up a million a year over the next few years and buyouts coming off the books and guys like Woo, Rathbone, Klimovich, Lockwood etc should be enough to keep the core together. Plus in 2024 the cap is expected to jump significantly. 

 

JT is 100% part of the core

[wai_lai416]

11 hours ago, Alienhuggyflow said:

It baffles me that people think we should because his contract ends in 18 months.

First there has never been a team win a cup with a bunch of RFA players, tho the way people want have teams consisting of all 25 and under you think that's the proven formula for success. 

Sure he's going to get a decent raise and a 6+ year deal that might suck for the last couple but who cares, he wants to be here and IMO is the clear leader on this team.

 

He's also severely underrated,  he literally does everything while being among the top point producers in the league since he got here.

Guys like Pearson, Hamonic,  Dickenson? Plus the cap going up a million a year over the next few years and buyouts coming off the books and guys like Woo, Rathbone, Klimovich, Lockwood etc should be enough to keep the core together. Plus in 2024 the cap is expected to jump significantly. 

 

JT is 100% part of the core

lol you guys overrate the prospect way too much. pearson and dickenson aint going anywhere unless you can find a GM dumb enough to take on their cap without giving up assets to move them. if you think they are so trash why would any GM take on their cap hit for you? rathbone might crack the lineup.. but what is he going to replace? a 900k bottom 6 defensemen? so cap wise it's a wash.. same with lockwood if he's going to replace anyone it's gonna be one of those fringe 4th liner making the minimum. the cap will go up 1 mil next year. the 2024 cap no one knows.. it was under the assumption live is back to normal.. 1/3 of the season in we are already partially shutdown by covid who knows what will happen down the road. 

 

Miller is going to be 30 by the time his contract is over. he's going to be looking for the homerun contract as it'll be his last chance at one. can the canucks afford to keep him at 8.5-9mil for 7 years? sure if they move out boeser horvat or pettersson. is he going to live up to his contract? maybe for the first couple of years.. then he'll become the biggest anchor in team history lol.

 

by the time miller's contract is over.. the only cores that will be under 25 is hughes podz and hoglander. 

[erkayloomeh]

On 12/20/2021 at 7:28 AM, D-Money said:

Luongo's recapture penalty ends after this year. That will pay for a Boeser raise. Holtby and Virtanen's buyout ends after next year. That will help pay for a raise to one of Horvat or Miller, but not both... Plus there is Hoglander to pay then as well. Not to mention, extending all 3 pretty much ties our hands to add any other meaningful players.

 

I still think the right move is to trade one of Boeser, Miller, or Horvat. Miller seems like the best choice, because he's oldest, and least likely to want to stay when he hits UFA.

I don't see why management can't be sitting down with these players/agents and having discussions about there futures with the team including salaries for the purpose of determining whether they are going to be able to keep them or not.  How do we know miller's going to want 8 mil?  Maybe he'll stay in Vancouver for 6.5   if this team is close like they appear maybe those 3 will each take a bit of a haircut to stay. 

If they won't discuss it then that's a pretty good indication you need to trade one of them so you don't lose them for nothing. 

[Coconuts]

41 minutes ago, erkayloomeh said:

I don't see why management can't be sitting down with these players/agents and having discussions about there futures with the team including salaries for the purpose of determining whether they are going to be able to keep them or not.  How do we know miller's going to want 8 mil?  Maybe he'll stay in Vancouver for 6.5   if this team is close like they appear maybe those 3 will each take a bit of a haircut to stay. 

If they won't discuss it then that's a pretty good indication you need to trade one of them so you don't lose them for nothing. 

Maybe he would stay for 6.5M, but considering he's currently making 5.25M it's unlikely he forgoes his chance to get paid for a measly 1.25M raise. Players have to think about life beyond hockey, a career can end due to injury any game. 

 

Miller has never been a UFA, when this current contract is over he'll be on what's likely the last big deal of his career. This is his best, and likely last, chance to cash in on an expensive and lengthy contract. And there will be multiple teams willing to give to him via UFA. 

 

We don't know what Miller wants, but it's more likely he'll be looking for more than less. This is Miller's third season as a Canuck, he has zero reason to give us a sweetheart deal. 

[Alienhuggyflow]

5 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

lol you guys overrate the prospect way too much. pearson and dickenson aint going anywhere unless you can find a GM dumb enough to take on their cap without giving up assets to move them. if you think they are so trash why would any GM take on their cap hit for you? rathbone might crack the lineup.. but what is he going to replace? a 900k bottom 6 defensemen? so cap wise it's a wash.. same with lockwood if he's going to replace anyone it's gonna be one of those fringe 4th liner making the minimum. the cap will go up 1 mil next year. the 2024 cap no one knows.. it was under the assumption live is back to normal.. 1/3 of the season in we are already partially shutdown by covid who knows what will happen down the road. 

 

Miller is going to be 30 by the time his contract is over. he's going to be looking for the homerun contract as it'll be his last chance at one. can the canucks afford to keep him at 8.5-9mil for 7 years? sure if they move out boeser horvat or pettersson. is he going to live up to his contract? maybe for the first couple of years.. then he'll become the biggest anchor in team history lol.

 

by the time miller's contract is over.. the only cores that will be under 25 is hughes podz and hoglander. 

How the hell am I overating prospects.

Klimovich, Woo and Lockwood are virtually locks to make it, in what role is TBD.

 

I find the fact you think JT is to old at 30 to be part of the core, how long have you been following hockey? A simple search will show you the average age of cup winners is 30.

I guess Sid, Malkin, Stamkos and on and on and on are to old as well.

No team has ever won a cup with an average age of 25 but teams win all the time with a mix of age groups.

You are also way off on what JT will get especially if he signs for 6+ years. Adding extra years past the age of 35 are often given to lower the cap hit. 7-7.5 on a 7 year deal would make sense but even at 8-8.5 that's 2.5-3 million that would be needed since the cap will be up 2 million and Holtbys buyout Loungos penalty and  Halaks bonuses will be off the book the latter being replaced  replaced by an elc they can re-sign him without making any moves. 

 

You realize Hamonic will be off the books and Pearson and Dickenson will have one season left right? .

The fact you think those contracts are a negative, agsin tells me you are the type that thinks only under 25 have value.

Guys like Pearson and Dickenson are always coveted, especially on contracts with 1 year left.

You really should look around and see for yourself how often those types are traded for.

As for Hoglander unless he becomes a 60 point player next season he probably gets bridged.

The cap is expected to go back to pre- pandemic estimates  for the 2024-2025 season which even before the new TV deal was expected to be close to 90 million. Gary has already said as much.

I don't mean to be rude but if you think that if the team is a contender in 18 months and Bo, Brock and JT want to stay and JR won't be able to clear or will choose to let them walk instead of moving out players that aren't as important then I don't know what to tell you.

 

Every year with some people it's all doom and gloom yet every year GMS manage to find the cap to keep the players they prioritize.

 

Ps. Nobody will care if the last few years of JTs contract sucks if he ends being part of a team that wins a cup.

Every GM uses term on the older guys to lower the cap hit.

But na let's let our best forward and leader leave, since ppg all situation players are easy to replace and won't help win a cup since only players under 25 do that.