[Discussion] JT Miller to Rangers

[Maniwaki Canuck]

1 hour ago, higgyfan said:

I'd be interested in what you see as a fair price, Mani.  I agree that it would be unlikely that the Nucks could replace him.  It's important to get full value if the GM trades Miller.

 

I liked Chytil as part of the trade, but now I have discovered he is playing W instead of C (his game has since picked up and NY see him as W).  Of course, this may be related to the Rags adding Goodrow this year, which pushed Chytil down to 4C.  I'll bet the Rangers would prefer to have Rooney handling 4C @ $.750  So I think Chytil is not as valuable as I thought.

 

At 19, Schneider is doing well in his 1st pro season.  He has recently been called up from the AHL (Lundquist was sent down), so we will see how he does in the NHL.

 

NYs 1st round pick would be nice to use for moving up in the draft, but again, the pick is no sure thing and will take time to develop.

 

So do the Canucks ask for Kakko or Lafreniere + Schneider?  Is that a fair trade?  Those 2 players are already in the NHL and will likely be at least top 6 players.  RW or LW .

I'm assuming that the Rangers trade Strome for a couple of great assets, so JT would not be a cap problem.

 

Yes, that's way more like it.  For a player of Miller's stature you should definitely get someone like Kakko or Lafreniere on track for a top 6 role plus a prospect like Schneider.  The scenario should be that NY wins the trade over the first 3-4 years while Miller is at his peak and we do thereafter.  Our goal shouldn't be to get lots of lower quality assets but a couple with a strong chance of hitting big.  Of course NY would rather go the first route but Rutherford wasn't born yesterday and would make them pay a fair price if he's even thinking of moving Miller, which seems unlikely at this early date. 

I assume that both management and Miller are still assessing how things are going in Vancouver and haven't come to any firm conclusions yet about future directions.  There are good cases for him staying and for leaving.  A lot will depend on how he feels and none of us can know that with any certainty.  But the better the club plays under new management, the better the chances of him staying.

[BarnBurner]

5 hours ago, Coconuts said:

I'm assuming you're talking about Miller.

 

The point of trading him is that he's more valuable to another team with two seasons at 5.25M as opposed to one, that's great value for what Miller brings to a team. He's more valuable as a trade chip right now because any team that acquires him gets two seasons to chase the playoffs and potentially go deep instead of one. 

 

Wait til next year's deadline and you likely get less. 

Who cares if he has more value now? Of course he does, that's pretty obvious. I would find out first whether he wants to be part of THIS team moving forward. You don't throw away player's like JT just because you're trying to capitalize on a great return. 

 

Why do you think so many other teams are interested in him? Why should we trade away that caliber of player? We need him too. 

 

He's the kind of guy who hates losing. 

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, JM_ said:

re: Halak, you have to think he'd like to go to a contender. I think its just agent posturing in the media by way of Dhaliwal. 

*fingers crossed*

 

2 hours ago, higgyfan said:

I'd be interested in what you see as a fair price, Mani.  I agree that it would be unlikely that the Nucks could replace him.  It's important to get full value if the GM trades Miller.

 

I liked Chytil as part of the trade, but now I have discovered he is playing W instead of C (his game has since picked up and NY see him as W).  Of course, this may be related to the Rags adding Goodrow this year, which pushed Chytil down to 4C.  I'll bet the Rangers would prefer to have Rooney handling 4C @ $.750  So I think Chytil is not as valuable as I thought.

 

At 19, Schneider is doing well in his 1st pro season.  He has recently been called up from the AHL (Lundquist was sent down), so we will see how he does in the NHL.

 

NYs 1st round pick would be nice to use for moving up in the draft, but again, the pick is no sure thing and will take time to develop.

 

So do the Canucks ask for Kakko or Lafreniere + Schneider?  Is that a fair trade?  Those 2 players are already in the NHL and will likely be at least top 6 players.  RW or LW .

I'm assuming that the Rangers trade Strome for a couple of great assets, so JT would not be a cap problem.

 

 

1 hour ago, 204CanucksFan said:

I'm a big believer in the 'trade Miiller this TDL because his value is as high as its going to be' theory. Here is my swing for the fences, nice to live in a fantasy world, trade proposal:

 

Van Trades:

Miller (50% retained) because retaining 2.625 for next season won't be totally detrimental for us and should significantly increase his value.

Motte/Schenn: NYR's choice

 

NYR Trades:

Schneider

Othmann

2022 1st round pick

2022 2nd round pick

Barron

 

I'll take Othmann and Barron over Chytil. I like Chytil but he's playing predominantly on the wing and he is not good at faceoffs. Barron, albeit in very limited viewings, is very physical and is good at faceoffs and is a big man at 6'4 220lbs. Othmann isn't big but he is very fast, great hands and shot, plays physical and relentless, basically like Motte with much more skill.

 

Basically it equates to Miller + Motte/Schenn for 3 1sts, a 2nd and a big 3/4C

I think NYR's will want us taking Chyttil back as part of the return to minimize cap impications (and make room for Miller on the roster). And I'm fine with that...at worst, he's a young, tenacious, fast, 3rd line W'er/C with a decent 2 way game and size on a decent, short term deal, with (as yet untapped) offensive upside. We could do a LOT worse as 'cap return'. And by no means should he be the main piece of the trade.

[Coconuts]

5 hours ago, khay said:

I agree. Miller's value will not be higher than at this TDL than in the off season or the next TDL.

 

It's a tough decision though. Trading your best player.

 

I think Chytil gets you a roster player to immediately replace some of Miller's ice time and the hope here would be that EP, Boeser, Horvat, Hogz, Podz,  Garland, and Chytil collectively replace the point production. In particular, EP. If EP can't take over the majority of Miller's point production, then that's a sign that we need something more than a retool anyways.

 

At the end of the day, Schneider is the core piece of the package. If he becomes our Brent Seabrook to Hughes, then we win the trade. 

 

For sure, he'll never be more valuable as a trade chip than he will be leading up to the deadline. 

 

And it is, but I think it's the right move. For several reasons. 

 

I think it'll be fine, even if we take a step back offensively that shouldn't doom us so long as we're better defensively and we don't dig ourselves a hole they way we did this season. If special teams work out and the players that are supposed to be scoring score than we should absolutely be in the mix next season. Teams don't have the luxury of having three top six centers down the middle, you just don't see it. And if next season is more of a stepping stone season so be it. 

 

And I agree, and I think it's worth the gamble. We don't have anything like him in our system, we've got very little in the way of D prospects ready to make the jump. 

 

4 hours ago, khay said:

I like the idea. Buy low on Lafreniere's potential.

 

If we retain salary like suggested by OP, we could probably get a draft pick back as well?

 

Miller at 2.65 mil is the best deal in the NHL. He wins faceoffs, he puts up points, can play wing and center. Plays PWF game needed to win in the playoffs.

 

As it stands right now, NYR doesn't beat Tampa. They might not even beat the Canes and Pens, beating Crosby and Malkin has been difficult for the rest of Metropolitan division. Add Miller at 2.65 mil, which lets you add another player. 

 

Miller + Motte for Schneider + Lafreniere + Chytil (or 1st).

 

That trade keeps us competitive now and in the future as well.

 

I'd take that and run, I'd even throw them Schenn. I do think the Lafreniere bit is optimistic though, you almost never see first overall picks traded away so young. 

 

3 hours ago, aGENT said:

 

I'd do it if we send a second, expiring piece piece, like Motte. Retain $1.5m on Miller, just for this year, to cover Motte's expiring hit (and change) for them. 

 

That still leaves us the cap to sign a Paul/Tierney/Sturm while adding Chytil's hit.

 

If we can unload a Hamonic or Poolman as well... Gravy.

 

I'd like to see us move Halak before his bonus... But I don't think that's happening with his trade clause. *Fingers crossed*

I suspect we'll be carrying Halak's bonus next season, but if we don't it'll be a pleasant surprise. 

 

3 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

I think the Rangers also ask for Schenn. They've been trying RD prospects out at their bottom pair and would likely be trading Schneider out in any deal for Miller. He fits what they want and comes cheap/inexpensive. Hamonic probably vetos and has been out most the year and Poolman's got too much term for their liking with having to re-sign players the next 2 seasons.

 

If Schenn's what it takes to make the deal I think you trade him, and I like Schenn. He's played well but he's still just a bottom pairing guy. If Miller's traded I imagine he's probably not our only trade anyway.

 

52 minutes ago, BarnBurner said:

Who cares if he has more value now? Of course he does, that's pretty obvious. I would find out first whether he wants to be part of THIS team moving forward. You don't throw away player's like JT just because you're trying to capitalize on a great return. 

 

Why do you think so many other teams are interested in him? Why should we trade away that caliber of player? We need him too. 

 

He's the kind of guy who hates losing. 

If you're trading him for a big return than you're not throwing away anything. 

 

And really, it's not just about what Miller wants so much as it's about what Rutherford and management think. If they don't see this team being close to contending while Miller's at his peak or they don't envision him on this team long term than it doesn't matter what Miller wants. Miller isn't who dictates what happens, management is. And let's be real, it's managements job to explore options, so even if they trade him it'll be likely they've explored what he's looking for. If only to tell teams who're looking to acquire him what they'd be looking at regarding an extension. 

 

The reasons he's valuable to us are the reasons other teams might want him, shocking. 

 

Why would we trade him away? Maybe what he wants in the way of an extension doesn't align with what management sees him being worth, or maybe they don't like the dollar amount or the term. Maybe they discover he's not sure what he wants, leaving them in limbo. Maybe they discover he's not interested in extending. Also, let's be real, because he's valuable and Rutherford wants this team to get younger. He's our most valuable trade chip by far and his value will never be higher as a trade chip than it will be leading up to the deadline. We could get a valuable package for him, that's a huge reason. If that wasn't the case there wouldn't so much discussion about moving him. We could get a package of picks, NHL ready prospects, or young NHL players. You might see this team as a team that can win within the next year or two, but given how Rutherford's touched on there being holes in this roster and his wanting the team as a whole to get younger, I'm not sure he'd agree with you.

 

I'm not convinced we need him actually. I don't see why we couldn't be competitive without him, he'll be 29 in March and if we're not seeing his best this season we likely see it sooner than later. Regardless of where he signs he's going to command huge dollars and term, and I don't anticipate us getting any kind of discount. This is his last chance to cash in, we're his third NHL team and he's been here three seasons, he doesn't owe us a thing. Move him out and you still have a top six of Petterson, Garland, Horvat, Boeser, and Hoglander. You've got Pearson as a respectable middle six tweener. You've got Podz who should improve, you've got whatever you get in return for Miller. Depending on whether we retain or not, or how much, you might even free up cap space you can allocate to other parts of the roster. Hughes isn't going anywhere, neither is Demko. Trading Miller doesn't strip this team of talent, he's one guy.

 

Sure, he hates losing and he's done a lot of that here. But his hating losing might be why he decides he doesn't want to be here at some point, why he decides to explore UFA. Even if you explore what he wants, there's no guarantee he plans on being here long term. We aren't a team that can afford to lose assets for nothing. 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Coconuts

[BarnBurner]

3 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

For sure, he'll never be more valuable as a trade chip than he will be leading up to the deadline. 

 

And it is, but I think it's the right move. For several reasons. 

 

I think it'll be fine, even if we take a step back offensively that shouldn't doom us so long as we're better defensively and we don't dig ourselves a hole they way we did this season. If special teams work out and the players that are supposed to be scoring, we should absolutely be in the mix next season. Teams don't have the luxury of having three top six centers down the middle, you just don't see it. And if next season is more of a stepping stone season so be it. 

 

And I agree, and I think it's worth the gamble. We don't have anything like him in our system, we've got very little in the way of D prospects ready to make the jump. 

 

I'd take that and run, I'd even throw them Schenn. I do think the Lafreniere bit is optimistic though, you almost never see first overall picks traded away so young. 

 

I suspect we'll be carrying Halak's bonus next season, but if we don't it'll be a pleasant surprise. 

 

If Schenn's what it takes to make the deal I think you trade him, and I like Schenn. He's played well but he's still just a bottom pairing guy. If Miller's traded I imagine he's probably not our only trade anyway.

 

If you're trading him for a big return than you're not throwing away anything. 

 

And really, it's not just about what Miller wants so much as it's about what Rutherford and management think. If they don't see this team being close to contending while Miller's at his peak or they don't envision him on this team long term than it doesn't matter what Miller wants. Miller isn't who dictates what happens, management is. And let's be real, it's managements job to explore options, so even if they trade him it'll be likely they've explored what he's looking for. If only to tell teams who're looking to acquire him what they'd be looking at regarding an extension. 

 

The reasons he's valuable to us are the reasons other teams might want him, shocking. 

 

Why would we trade him away? Maybe what he wants in the way of an extension doesn't align with what management sees him being worth, or maybe they don't like the dollar amount or the term. Maybe they discover he's not sure what he wants, leaving them in limbo. Maybe they discover he's not interested in extending. Also, let's be real, because he's valuable and Rutherford wants this team to get younger. He's our most valuable trade chip by far and his value will never be higher as a trade chip than it will be leading up to the deadline. We could get a valuable package for him, that's a huge reason. If that wasn't the case there wouldn't so much discussion about moving him. We could get a package of picks, NHL ready prospects, or young NHL players. You might see this team as a team that can win within the next year or two, but given how Rutherford's touched on there being holes in this roster and his wanting the team as a whole to get younger, I'm not sure he'd agree with you.

 

I'm not convinced we need him actually. I don't see why we couldn't be competitive without him, he'll be 29 in March and if we're not seeing his best this season we likely see it sooner than later. Regardless of where he signs he's going to command huge dollars and term, and I don't anticipate us getting any kind of discount. This is his last chance to cash in, we're his third NHL team and he's been here three seasons, he doesn't owe us a thing. Move him out and you still have a top six of Petterson, Garland, Horvat, Boeser, and Hoglander. You've got Pearson as a respectable middle six tweener. You've got Podz who should improve, you've got whatever you get in return for Miller. Depending on whether we retain or not, or how much, you might even free up cap space you can allocate to other parts of the roster. Hughes isn't going anywhere, neither is Demko. Trading Miller doesn't strip this team of talent, he's one guy.

 

Sure, he hates losing and he's done a lot of that here. But his hating losing might be why he decides he doesn't want to be here at some point, why he decides to explore UFA. Even if you explore what he wants, there's no guarantee he plans on being here long term. We aren't a team that can afford to lose assets for nothing. 

 

 

That's the thing, IF you can get an amazing return, sure. But he's the exact type of player every team needs, including our Canucks. 

[Coconuts]

7 minutes ago, BarnBurner said:

That's the thing, IF you can get an amazing return, sure. But he's the exact type of player every team needs, including our Canucks. 

He's making 5.25M, has produced at a high level, and we could retain salary/cap space. If Rutherford decides he's on the market there's absolutely no reason he couldn't fetch an amazing return. Anyone trading him would get him at 5.25M for the remainder of this season, if we're willing to retain cap that opens up the list of teams that could make offers and likely drive up his value even further. It's not a matter of whether we could get an amazing return, it's whether Rutherford decides to go for it or not. 

 

He's valuable, a great player, no question. But he's also almost 29 years old. If Rutherford doesn't see our contending window being sooner than later it's probable he'll be holding on to a depreciating asset. Miller's an amazing player right now, but the key words are right now. Forward typically begin to fall off during their 30's, the player we have now may very well not be the player we have at 32+, and if we retain him at a huge cap number and long term and his production begins to fall off that's problematic. If he's being paid 8M+ and doesn't produce like a top flight player, and I'm sure he'd get it via UFA, that's a problem. 

 

It's not my job to convince you that moving Miller is the right move. If you'd rather the Canucks retain him that's totally fine, but while you can come up with legitimate reasons to keep him there are many who'll come up with reasons to trade him. Miller is simultaneously our best player this season and our best trade chip. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Coconuts

[BPA]

If trading Miller, I’d aim high…
 

Miller (50%) + Motte

 

for

 

1st 2022 + Schneider + Lafreniere/Kakko + Kratsov

 

 

[qwijibo]

2 hours ago, BPA said:

If trading Miller, I’d aim high…
 

Miller (50%) + Motte

 

for

 

1st 2022 + Schneider + Lafreniere/Kakko + Kratsov

 

 

You’re asking for the equivalent of 4 very recent high 1sts. Including either a 1st OA or 2nd OA. That’s not remotely realistic. They’re not going to gut the organization for a year and a half rental 

[shiznak]

16 hours ago, JM_ said:

why do we need to retain salary on Miller? that hurts us moving forward. 

We don’t necessary need to retain, but the Rangers will be tight against the cap for next year when Zibanejab’s and Fox’s contracts kicks in.

They will have 13 players signed for next season, with roughly only 7M in cap space (without any retention). Kaapo and Gauthier will need to be re-upped. Plus, they will need to find a backup goalie.

[D-Money]

2 hours ago, shiznak said:

We don’t necessary need to retain, but the Rangers will be tight against the cap for next year when Zibanejab’s and Fox’s contracts kicks in.

They will have 13 players signed for next season, with roughly only 7M in cap space (without any retention). Kaapo and Gauthier will need to be re-upped. Plus, they will need to find a backup goalie.

If Chytil comes back, and we retain 50%, then it would be almost cap neutral.

[JM_]

2 hours ago, shiznak said:

We don’t necessary need to retain, but the Rangers will be tight against the cap for next year when Zibanejab’s and Fox’s contracts kicks in.

They will have 13 players signed for next season, with roughly only 7M in cap space (without any retention). Kaapo and Gauthier will need to be re-upped. Plus, they will need to find a backup goalie.

 thats a lot... should give us a lot of leverage then if we're willing to retain. 

[canucklehead44]

20 hours ago, Coconuts said:

But that's just it's, there's no guarantee we'd even get 80% of what Miller's worth right now next deadline. Hockey's a fast game, Miller's season could end next game. There's no guarantee he'll be healthy all of next season, or even at the deadline. There's no guarantee he'd produce at the clip he has this season. Trading him is a gamble, but so is holding him. 

 

If Miller's healthy and producing leading up to this year's deadline and Rutherford isn't convinced we're actually in it this season or doesn't envision him as part of the team long-term it's absolutely worth considering a trade.

 

Value matters too, I'd rather have a shot at getting a high end RD prospect and a 1st+ than a 1st and a bottom six player. We desperately need to get younger on D, and we lack high end D prospects and young high end NHL ready D in general. Hughes is the only top 4D we have who's under 25, everyone else is pushing 30 or just past it. 

 

 

You raise good points. Even if we are a playoff team next year it isn't like we are in the later half of our contention window. 

 

It is hard to get a good idea on a player's value. Miller is a point per game and is physical & versatile - he is a hugely valuable asset. But when I read the Rangers writers give trade ideas he seems criminally underrated. 

 

But thinking back to the Brad Richards trade - the rumour was it was Kesler, Edler/Bourdon, and Schneider for Richards but then ended up being Smith, Halpern, and Jokinen instead which at the time was a far worse return (and even more terrible in hindsight).

 

Another strange one was when Benning couldn't move Hamhuis, and apparently was made an insulting offer from Dallas who went on to acquire Russell for a 2nd and a depth dman. Again this makes no sense as Dallas ended up signing Hamhuis for 2x3.75 when Russel only got 1x2.6 from Calgary so in what world would his value have been lower. 

 

In short, if there are 7 or 8 teams vying for Miller and the Rangers are going after him aggressively its got to be a 1st, Schneider, and Barron or a 2nd, Schneider, and Chytil 

 

[HKSR]

12 hours ago, BPA said:

If trading Miller, I’d aim high…
 

Miller (50%) + Motte

 

for

 

1st 2022 + Schneider + Lafreniere/Kakko + Kratsov

 

 

I like the idea of getting one of Lafreniere or Kakko out of this and Schneider... even if it means we need to tack some more on to make it work.

 

I'd prefer Lafreniere over Kakko.

 

Miller (50%), Motte, 3rd Round Pick

 

for

 

Lafreniere, Schneider, Chytil

 

The basis being Miller at 50% + Motte for Lafreniere and Schneider.  Tweaking the other parts to make it work would be huge for the Canucks.

[Coconuts]

2 hours ago, canucklehead44 said:

You raise good points. Even if we are a playoff team next year it isn't like we are in the later half of our contention window. 

 

It is hard to get a good idea on a player's value. Miller is a point per game and is physical & versatile - he is a hugely valuable asset. But when I read the Rangers writers give trade ideas he seems criminally underrated. 

 

But thinking back to the Brad Richards trade - the rumour was it was Kesler, Edler/Bourdon, and Schneider for Richards but then ended up being Smith, Halpern, and Jokinen instead which at the time was a far worse return (and even more terrible in hindsight).

 

Another strange one was when Benning couldn't move Hamhuis, and apparently was made an insulting offer from Dallas who went on to acquire Russell for a 2nd and a depth dman. Again this makes no sense as Dallas ended up signing Hamhuis for 2x3.75 when Russel only got 1x2.6 from Calgary so in what world would his value have been lower. 

 

In short, if there are 7 or 8 teams vying for Miller and the Rangers are going after him aggressively its got to be a 1st, Schneider, and Barron or a 2nd, Schneider, and Chytil 

 

True that, and I'm not convinced we'll be contending over the next couple years, we've yet to even show we're a playoff regular at this point 

 

Even if we were to beat the odds and make it this season I don't think we'd get very far

 

Someone else made a thread pertaining to his value actually, they did a solid job imo, but yeah it's tough to get a bead on 

 

As for Rangers writers, I'd take any valuation thrown out there with a grain of salt, of course they'd rather him cost less than more 

 

The Hamhuis bit was always a bit of a head scratcher, but for all his successes Benning also had his failures

 

Yup, bottom line is they'll have to pay up, and I wouldn't be shocked if they did 

 

 

[erkayloomeh]

On 1/19/2022 at 1:21 PM, JM_ said:

why do we need to retain salary on Miller? that hurts us moving forward. 

If we can handle that on our cap it would net us a greater return and not retaining might handicap that team from making that trade. 

So they just need to give us futures or younger lower cap player/in return for us retaining. 

Short term probably not as good for us but in the long term good. 

[JM_]

45 minutes ago, erkayloomeh said:

If we can handle that on our cap it would net us a greater return and not retaining might handicap that team from making that trade. 

So they just need to give us futures or younger lower cap player/in return for us retaining. 

Short term probably not as good for us but in the long term good. 

what a bargain Miller would be at 2.7, crazy.

 

Certainly sounds like the Rangers are in the mix, so we'll see. But at that price so are a lot more teams. 

[aGENT]

OG Miller to NYR