Is Connor Bedard really the best player in the 2023 NHL draft?

[Elias Pettersson]

I've been looking at the top prospects for this draft, and it really is a doozy of a draft.  I would say it may even be better than 2003.  I want to focus soley on two players for simplicity here.  Connor Bedard vs. Adam Fantilli.  Is Connor Bedard better than Adam Fantilli?  If you were not Vancouver and unbiased, who would you pick?

 

Connor Bedard is currently averaging over 2 points per game as a 17 year old in the CHL, 2.18 to be exact.  For comparison, Connor McDavid averaged 2.55 points per game in his draft year.  So, although Bedard is not at the level of McDavid thus far he is still in elite category and easily has the numbers to be a #1 overall pick and a superstar in the NHL.

 

Adam Fantilli is currently averaging almost 2 points per game as a 17 year old in the NCAA, 1.92 to be exact.  For comparison, Jack Eichel averaged 1.77 points per game in his draft year in the NCAA. 

 

So Bedard's points per game is higher than Fantilli.  However, Bedard is playing in the CHL against teenagers while Fantilli is playing in the NCAA against men.  So, are the numbers a true reflection of what's to come at the NHL level?  McDavid was so far ahead of Eichel that it didn't matter that he was in the CHL, but for Bedard and Fantilli the numbers are very close.

 

The other thing to consider is that Fantilli is 6'3" and 200 pounds, while Bedard is 5'10" and 185 pounds.  Both are elite skaters, both have a great shot and both have elite play making abilities.

 

At the end of the day, they are very close in comparison, and both would easily have been the #1 overall pick in the last few drafts.  I would say either player goes #1 in the 2017-2022 drafts easy.

 

So, if two players are this close, then how do you decide who to take?  Well, for me if two players are close I would always take the player with more size.  That's the NHL for you.  Size always matters if you have two players with equal talent.  So, the question becomes are Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli equal talents?  If not, then you go for Bedard.  If they are relatively equal than I think scouts may choose to go for the bigger player.

 

It will be interesting to see how Bedard and Fantilli play for the rest of the year.  I am certain that these two players will go #1 and #2 in the draft.  I am just not convinced 100% that Bedard is the one going #1 overall at this point.  And if somehow Vancouver gets that #1 overall pick, well then that is a huge dilemma.  But, to be honest I can't see how Vancouver doesn't take Bedard if they have the #1 overall pick.  The marketing alone would be a huge driver and Aquilini loves marketing.

 

I think either way you can't go wrong really.  Both players are elite and both will be superstars in this league.  Bedard would probably be the best fit in Vancouver, but if another team gets the #1 overall pick, is Bedard really a slam dunk to go #1 overall?

[Ghostsof1915]

Great consolation prize? Either way?

[Warhippy]

Full disclosure, I love the local boy.

 

but if we went to the podium and picked Fantilli, I'd be totally ok with it because that size is everything and nobody can discount for a second what he is doing against 20-25 year old players.  

 

[Angry Goose]

Like you say you cant go wrong with either.

 

McDavid had some separation from Eichel, but in this case Im not sure there is a clear cut #1.  Will be interesting to see where they are at 5 years from now.

[Bure_Pavel]

For me its not that close, Bedard is a full step above the competition and will be up there with Sid and McDavid. Bedard is almost a full year younger and has dominated at every level. 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Bure_Pavel

[King Heffy]

Bedard is as good as McDiver without the character issues.

[Elias Pettersson]

11 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

For me its not that close, Bedard is a full step above the competition and will be up there with Sid and McDavid. Bedard is almost a full year younger and has dominated at every level. 

This is a very important point that I forgot to mention.  Fantilli is 9 months older than Bedard.  But the fact that Fantilli is playing against men in the NCAA negates the age difference I think.

[HighOnHockey]

18 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I've been looking at the top prospects for this draft, and it really is a doozy of a draft.  I would say it may even be better than 2003.  I want to focus soley on two players for simplicity here.  Connor Bedard vs. Adam Fantilli.  Is Connor Bedard better than Adam Fantilli?  If you were not Vancouver and unbiased, who would you pick?

 

Connor Bedard is currently averaging over 2 points per game as a 17 year old in the CHL, 2.18 to be exact.  For comparison, Connor McDavid averaged 2.55 points per game in his draft year.  So, although Bedard is not at the level of McDavid thus far he is still in elite category and easily has the numbers to be a #1 overall pick and a superstar in the NHL.

 

Adam Fantilli is currently averaging almost 2 points per game as a 17 year old in the NCAA, 1.92 to be exact.  For comparison, Jack Eichel averaged 1.77 points per game in his draft year in the NCAA. 

 

So Bedard's points per game is higher than Fantilli.  However, Bedard is playing in the CHL against teenagers while Fantilli is playing in the NCAA against men.  So, are the numbers a true reflection of what's to come at the NHL level?  McDavid was so far ahead of Eichel that it didn't matter that he was in the CHL, but for Bedard and Fantilli the numbers are very close.

 

The other thing to consider is that Fantilli is 6'3" and 200 pounds, while Bedard is 5'10" and 185 pounds.  Both are elite skaters, both have a great shot and both have elite play making abilities.

 

At the end of the day, they are very close in comparison, and both would easily have been the #1 overall pick in the last few drafts.  I would say either player goes #1 in the 2017-2022 drafts easy.

 

So, if two players are this close, then how do you decide who to take?  Well, for me if two players are close I would always take the player with more size.  That's the NHL for you.  Size always matters if you have two players with equal talent.  So, the question becomes are Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli equal talents?  If not, then you go for Bedard.  If they are relatively equal than I think scouts may choose to go for the bigger player.

 

It will be interesting to see how Bedard and Fantilli play for the rest of the year.  I am certain that these two players will go #1 and #2 in the draft.  I am just not convinced 100% that Bedard is the one going #1 overall at this point.  And if somehow Vancouver gets that #1 overall pick, well then that is a huge dilemma.  But, to be honest I can't see how Vancouver doesn't take Bedard if they have the #1 overall pick.  The marketing alone would be a huge driver and Aquilini loves marketing.

 

I think either way you can't go wrong really.  Both players are elite and both will be superstars in this league.  Bedard would probably be the best fit in Vancouver, but if another team gets the #1 overall pick, is Bedard really a slam dunk to go #1 overall?

At this point, yes. Bedard is still the clear number one.

 

I'm not yet convinced Fantilli is the 2nd best player in the draft.

 

I've always thought the stats don't tell the whole story with Bedard. It's not just that he puts up points, but the way he puts up points. Electric. But since the only thing we're going off here is stats, it is worth pointing out that Fantilli is almost a full year older than Bedard. Eichel and McDavid were only a few months apart. Fantilli plays for an absolute offensive juggernaut at Michigan. McDavid played on a line wit Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat. Bedard doesn't have nearly that level of help offensively. His best linemate Tanner Howe isn't draft eligible until 2024.

 

I understand that you're only looking at "what have you done for me lately" when you mention that Bedard is isn't on the level of McDavid, but actually at every other benchmark they've been almost identical. They were dead even with 14 in 7 in their double-underage U18s. Bedard was 1.61 p/g in his D-1 year, McDavid was 1.77, again with superior linemates. McDavid was 4 in 7 at his D-1 WJC, Bedard was 8 in 7. You could argue this WJC happened half a year later but also Bedard is half a year younger.

 

And finally I think it is worth mentioning that it is still early in the season. Bedard got off to a bit of a relatively "slow" start with just 24 points in his first 14 games, and has since exploded for 24 in his last 8 (3 p/g). Lets see where it goes, but for now I would be very surprised if anyone other than Bedard goes first overall.

[McBackup]

I'll still take Bedard. I wouldn't be disappointed with Fantili, but Bedard is still the consensus number 1 amongst all the scouts, and with respect to McDavid and Crosby, he's playing in a more difficult league than either of them.

[BureBurrito]

Michkov, Fantilli, Bedard....really any of the top 5-8 players in this draft...will give the Canucks a MAJOR prospect/skill boost.

Edited November 25, 2022 by BureBurrito

[Harold Drunken]

28 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

Bedard is as good as McDiver without the character issues.

 

Heffy, you really do say the darndest things sometimes. I love it.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Harold Drunken

[King Heffy]

3 minutes ago, Harold Drunken said:

He's willing to backcheck, plays bigger than his size, doesn't dive, and doesn't throw tantrums.  He's already more of a man than McDiver ever will be, plays a more complete game, and is comparable offensively in a tighter checking league.

[DownUndaCanuck]

I think it'll be an interesting comparison the rest of their careers, the way McDavid and Matthews and Eichel sort of get compared to each other. That being said, McDavid is still the most elite of them all. Same goes for Bedard. 

 

That being said, Fantilli is big and strong and maybe that's what you need to win cups in the playoffs? Regardless, no one says no to Bedard at number 1.

[-AJ-]

I think at this age, the 9 month difference between these two is pretty significant. That said, this could be one of those insane drafts where two superstars are picked at #1 and #2, like 2004 (Ovechkin, Malkin), 2008 (Stamkos, Doughty), 2009 (Tavares, Hedman), 2013 (MacKinnon, Barkov), and 2015 (McDavid, Eichel).

[Gurn]

One thing that counters the 'plays against men' aspect is:

The scheduling for college hockey is not as grueling. More time for practice and recovery.

Less games- might be less actual miles traveled and likely better travel- not as many bus trips and such.

 

I'd take either one- and would be absolutely ticked off if our management screwed up like Buffalo did with Eichel.

Former GM put that kid in a horrible spot with all the "We are getting McDavid' advertising.

[King Heffy]

3 minutes ago, gurn said:

One thing that counters the 'plays against men' aspect is:

The scheduling for college hockey is not as grueling. More time for practice and recovery.

Less games- might be less actual miles traveled and likely better travel- not as many bus trips and such.

 

I'd take either one- and would be absolutely ticked off if our management screwed up like Buffalo did with Eichel.

Former GM put that kid in a horrible spot with all the "We are getting McDavid' advertising.

Yeah, Buffalo really shot themselves in the foot there.  Michkov would be another amazing consolation prize.  Finishing last guarantees one of them this year, right?

[Odd.]

Bedard leads the league in goals, shots, assists, minutes, GWG, has a 56% on the face offs, leads his team with 30 PIM, involved in more than 60% of his teams goals. 
 

He might be 5’9 but he’s thick and very strong. All that skill and he plays a very hard nosed, in your face hockey to compliment his game. He’s the complete package. 
 

Normally I’d take the bigger guy, but Bedard plays a much more heavier and hard nosed game than Fantelli. And at 17, he’s still got 2-3 more years of growing.

 

Bedards my pick.

[R3aL]

1 hour ago, HighOnHockey said:

At this point, yes. Bedard is still the clear number one.

 

I'm not yet convinced Fantilli is the 2nd best player in the draft.

 

I've always thought the stats don't tell the whole story with Bedard. It's not just that he puts up points, but the way he puts up points. Electric. But since the only thing we're going off here is stats, it is worth pointing out that Fantilli is almost a full year older than Bedard. Eichel and McDavid were only a few months apart. Fantilli plays for an absolute offensive juggernaut at Michigan. McDavid played on a line wit Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat. Bedard doesn't have nearly that level of help offensively. His best linemate Tanner Howe isn't draft eligible until 2024.

 

I understand that you're only looking at "what have you done for me lately" when you mention that Bedard is isn't on the level of McDavid, but actually at every other benchmark they've been almost identical. They were dead even with 14 in 7 in their double-underage U18s. Bedard was 1.61 p/g in his D-1 year, McDavid was 1.77, again with superior linemates. McDavid was 4 in 7 at his D-1 WJC, Bedard was 8 in 7. You could argue this WJC happened half a year later but also Bedard is half a year younger.

 

And finally I think it is worth mentioning that it is still early in the season. Bedard got off to a bit of a relatively "slow" start with just 24 points in his first 14 games, and has since exploded for 24 in his last 8 (3 p/g). Lets see where it goes, but for now I would be very surprised if anyone other than Bedard goes first overall.

Do you have Carlsson 2 now?

 

I think Bedard has number 1 on lockdown too unless something changes dramatically down the stretch.

 

 

[R3aL]

3 minutes ago, Odd. said:

Bedard leads the league in goals, shots, assists, minutes, GWG, has a 56% on the face offs, leads his team with 30 PIM, involved in more than 60% of his teams goals. 
 

He might be 5’9 but he’s thick and very strong. All that skill and he plays a very hard nosed, in your face hockey to compliment his game. He’s the complete package. 
 

Normally I’d take the bigger guy, but Bedard plays a much more heavier and hard nosed game than Fantelli. And at 17, he’s still got 2-3 more years of growing.

 

Bedards my pick.

Think he's taller now too. And with his age he could get to 5 11.

[nuckin_futz]

55 minutes ago, Harold Drunken said:

 

Heffy, you really do say the darndest things sometimes. I love it.

He willingly signed a long term deal to live in Edmonton and play for the Oilers. That alone makes me question his mental acuity.