Cap… Wait it out a year or pay a price to make space?

[stawns]

On 6/4/2023 at 11:00 AM, Junkyard Dog said:

Cap is only gonna be a 1M increase by the sounds of it. 
 

 

The following off-season after this one the league are gonna have a more significant cap increase as well as we’re gonna have cap off the books from some more pricey expiring contracts. 
 

The question I am asking is do you wait it out a year and save assets or are you willing to pay sweeteners/buyouts/retention to create more cap space in order to try to improve the team right away?

I doubt buyouts were ever really a serious option for them.  Not in my opinion anyway.......cap or not, their best move is to be patient

[iceman64]

On 6/4/2023 at 11:07 AM, Alflives said:

From what Allvin says our owner is not going to okay a big cost buyout, like OEL. JR announced several times last summer and into fall he didn’t want our owner paying for three head coaches at the same time. (Reported by Seravelli that JR tried to convince our owner to move on from BB last summer but our owner refused) So no way our owner will spend 20 mil to buyout OEL. 

Not sure about OEL being bought out, probably FA is waiting to see a possible resurrection of his old self, and the BB move, I don't recall him mixing it BUT that was the right move as his stock was too low, thankfully he got better so it's not so bad now but dealing him then, imo was a bad idea. 

[canucksnihilist]

Improve the team next year?  Or do nothing? 
 

let’s see….  The average gm lasts just over 5 years.  So you could say this current management is almost halfway done.   They have no time to wait.  they wait 2/3 years then get fired for not doing anything.
 

http://www.healthgeomatics.com/hockey-gm-tenure-length/

 

They have to try something.   They have almost no other cards to play except for trading away first round picks.

[DownUndaCanuck]

I think wait it out. It'll be interesting to see where we are around the TDL. If we're nowhere near a playoff spot we're in big trouble, but at least we can trade a bunch of our players and retain a bit (eg. trade Myers 50% retained or something to a contender, I bet Toronto would bite). Beauvillier's contract is due to expire too, he'd be a great rental trade, if we retained 50% again he's a bargain.

 

If we're somehow in or near a playoff spot, no need to panic. I think we let Myers walk, we've got to do something with Beauviller otherwise we lose value for nothing, and likely re-sign a bunch of our expiring contracts (eg. Petey and Hronek) with Myers money.

OEL is going down with the ship, no questions about it, but if we can bury him on the bottom pairing I have no problems with that - we just need budget guys in our top-4 then. We've got Hughes and Hronek who are great, but we need two more guys to make it work long-term.

 

Our cap situation isn't going to be great in a year though - Myers 6M out, Beauvillier 4M expiring, we'll need to give Petey a 3-4M raise, Hronek probably a 1-2M raise, Podkolzin will probably have a big year and deserve a raise, Joshua and Aman will be due a contract as well, it'll be tight for sure.

[grandmaster]

4 hours ago, canucksnihilist said:

Improve the team next year?  Or do nothing? 
 

let’s see….  The average gm lasts just over 5 years.  So you could say this current management is almost halfway done.   They have no time to wait.  they wait 2/3 years then get fired for not doing anything.
 

http://www.healthgeomatics.com/hockey-gm-tenure-length/

 

They have to try something.   They have almost no other cards to play except for trading away first round picks.

This is unfortunately the same for government as well. 
 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by grandmaster

[Alflives]

4 hours ago, canucksnihilist said:

Improve the team next year?  Or do nothing? 
 

let’s see….  The average gm lasts just over 5 years.  So you could say this current management is almost halfway done.   They have no time to wait.  they wait 2/3 years then get fired for not doing anything.
 

http://www.healthgeomatics.com/hockey-gm-tenure-length/

 

They have to try something.   They have almost no other cards to play except for trading away first round picks.

Average: management gets five years. Benning got 8. 

[iceman64]

6 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I think wait it out. It'll be interesting to see where we are around the TDL. If we're nowhere near a playoff spot we're in big trouble, but at least we can trade a bunch of our players and retain a bit (eg. trade Myers 50% retained or something to a contender, I bet Toronto would bite). Beauvillier's contract is due to expire too, he'd be a great rental trade, if we retained 50% again he's a bargain.

 

If we're somehow in or near a playoff spot, no need to panic. I think we let Myers walk, we've got to do something with Beauviller otherwise we lose value for nothing, and likely re-sign a bunch of our expiring contracts (eg. Petey and Hronek) with Myers money.

OEL is going down with the ship, no questions about it, but if we can bury him on the bottom pairing I have no problems with that - we just need budget guys in our top-4 then. We've got Hughes and Hronek who are great, but we need two more guys to make it work long-term.

 

Our cap situation isn't going to be great in a year though - Myers 6M out, Beauvillier 4M expiring, we'll need to give Petey a 3-4M raise, Hronek probably a 1-2M raise, Podkolzin will probably have a big year and deserve a raise, Joshua and Aman will be due a contract as well, it'll be tight for sure.

Myers buy out? It's not worth it, we're not doing anything big next season so why bother, OEL still has top pairing in him, that's up to T to help him bring that out again, I bet he thought he was back in Arizona last year, however at least he has that potential and if we can get him back to that, we're golden.

Imo, this is season is a turning point, and the biggest thing is how Hogs n Podz make it. 

BB and Garland are pretty much out of here and if JR pulls a gooder, then we'll be fine. 

As in trading for prospects and picks, and then have plenty of cap space. We're certainly not in that bad of a position as the media would have you believe but their not that bright and want to keep signing forwards, only a few have clued in we need lots of D depth. 

I find it funny as hell that the media finally get around to talking about stuff the CDC has been talking/debating for awhile now, and it happens a lot. Maybe they should troll the CDC for better write ups?! I've seen quite a few very well written articles here than what those F-tards can come up with...

Anyway, past all that, one thing I'm happy about is the way Silovs showed lately, would be great to have a bonafide back-up in case last season repeats itself in the future and Silovs can come in and help win games.

[Baratheon]

15 minutes ago, iceman64 said:

Myers buy out? It's not worth it, we're not doing anything big next season so why bother, OEL still has top pairing in him, that's up to T to help him bring that out again, I bet he thought he was back in Arizona last year, however at least he has that potential and if we can get him back to that, we're golden.

Imo, this is season is a turning point, and the biggest thing is how Hogs n Podz make it. 

BB and Garland are pretty much out of here and if JR pulls a gooder, then we'll be fine. 

As in trading for prospects and picks, and then have plenty of cap space. We're certainly not in that bad of a position as the media would have you believe but their not that bright and want to keep signing forwards, only a few have clued in we need lots of D depth. 

I find it funny as hell that the media finally get around to talking about stuff the CDC has been talking/debating for awhile now, and it happens a lot. Maybe they should troll the CDC for better write ups?! I've seen quite a few very well written articles here than what those F-tards can come up with...

Anyway, past all that, one thing I'm happy about is the way Silovs showed lately, would be great to have a bonafide back-up in case last season repeats itself in the future and Silovs can come in and help win games.

I don’t think anyone wants to give us picks/prospects for Boeser or Garland.  More likely that teams are asking for sweeteners in order to take on their contracts.  Boeser in particular.  I think we need to either hope he gets it together or else bite some kind of bullet to move him.

 

Your point stands however.  Any move that exclusively helps for next season (but not beyond it) is a complete waste.

[iceman64]

3 hours ago, Baratheon said:

I don’t think anyone wants to give us picks/prospects for Boeser or Garland.  More likely that teams are asking for sweeteners in order to take on their contracts.  Boeser in particular.  I think we need to either hope he gets it together or else bite some kind of bullet to move him.

 

Your point stands however.  Any move that exclusively helps for next season (but not beyond it) is a complete waste.

I cant agree on what you said about Boeser, if you said that before his started to catch fire in the last 15 or so games, I'd have wholeheartedly agreed with you but he was scoring and he seemed to have his head sorted out better, confidence I mean. 

Garland the same and pulled of a statement hat trick which was on highlight reels for everyone to see so that helped his cause a lot as well.. 

 Anyway we can agree to disagree on Boeser's situation but the point remains why throw away cap when that will only hurt us later when we aren't going on a cup run this year for sure, simply we don't have enough depth for that YET..

That's why I'd trade for prospects or picks and keep building instead of stopping and us winding up with another broken core and start all over again however long down the road that is... It's gotta stop, this one and done b.s. has never worked and it never will, we're ok as long as we wait things out and not shoot ourselves in the foot! Again......

[DSVII]

I was originally of the opinion that we have to trade one of Boeser, Garland or both. But with the way the cap increase is structured, a saavy team will pounce on us to acquire Boeser and Garland for pennies on the dollar because we are on the cap crunch, and in 2025/2026 the cap is projected to go up by 5-6 mil. This would instantly make both those players bargains because they'll appreciate in value due to the lower % of cap they represent in 2 years time.

 

I know it goes against everything this team has ever done, which has been taking the short cuts and competing now at the expense of the future, but the team has to seriously consider standing pat and letting the cards fall where they fall and then wait for the cap bump in 2025 to go for it after extending Petey.

 

By then, every team will have more cap space so the squeeze will not depress their trade values if we do decide to trade one of Boeser or Garland. Garland's $4.95 M in a 90M salary cap world is a bargain, as is Boeser's 6M and they are top 6 players, we wil be able to get more for them in that offseason than this year.

 

If we have to part with them, trade them a year from now rather than the $83M world this summer. 

 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by DSVII

[NewbieCanuckFan]

2 hours ago, DSVII said:

I was originally of the opinion that we have to trade one of Boeser, Garland or both. But with the way the cap increase is structured, a saavy team will pounce on us to acquire Boeser and Garland for pennies on the dollar because we are on the cap crunch, and in 2025/2026 the cap is projected to go up by 5-6 mil. This would instantly make both those players bargains because they'll appreciate in value due to the lower % of cap they represent in 2 years time.

 

I know it goes against everything this team has ever done, which has been taking the short cuts and competing now at the expense of the future, but the team has to seriously consider standing pat and letting the cards fall where they fall and then wait for the cap bump in 2025 to go for it after extending Petey.

 

By then, every team will have more cap space so the squeeze will not depress their trade values if we do decide to trade one of Boeser or Garland. Garland's $4.95 M in a 90M salary cap world is a bargain, as is Boeser's 6M and they are top 6 players, we wil be able to get more for them in that offseason than this year.

 

If we have to part with them, trade them a year from now rather than the $83M world this summer. 

 

 

Garland has more value than Boesers because he still has a useful role even if he doesn't get on the scoreboard.  If Boeser isn't scoring goals, he's a liability.

Edited June 6, 2023 by NewbieCanuckFan

[Citizen Erased]

Wait it out a year.

 

Who knows how the season will unfold? It’s possible with the structure put in place by the coaching staff and a healthy Demko, that the Canucks can compete for a playoff spot. 
 

If not and things go south fast again, keep players on expiring contracts until the deadline and get picks/prospects in return. 

[Baratheon]

5 hours ago, iceman64 said:

I cant agree on what you said about Boeser, if you said that before his started to catch fire in the last 15 or so games, I'd have wholeheartedly agreed with you but he was scoring and he seemed to have his head sorted out better, confidence I mean. 

Garland the same and pulled of a statement hat trick which was on highlight reels for everyone to see so that helped his cause a lot as well.. 

 Anyway we can agree to disagree on Boeser's situation but the point remains why throw away cap when that will only hurt us later when we aren't going on a cup run this year for sure, simply we don't have enough depth for that YET..

That's why I'd trade for prospects or picks and keep building instead of stopping and us winding up with another broken core and start all over again however long down the road that is... It's gotta stop, this one and done b.s. has never worked and it never will, we're ok as long as we wait things out and not shoot ourselves in the foot! Again......

Well hopefully you're right!  It's a lot better for the team if Brock has some value.  Personally I'm not expecting much in terms of him being moved.  Garland I'm a little more on the fence about I suppose but still skeptical.  

 

Again, I agree with your overall point however.

[iceman64]

5 hours ago, Citizen Erased said:

Wait it out a year.

 

Who knows how the season will unfold? It’s possible with the structure put in place by the coaching staff and a healthy Demko, that the Canucks can compete for a playoff spot. 
 

If not and things go south fast again, keep players on expiring contracts until the deadline and get picks/prospects in return. 

Ummm it was a weird year last year, we fell apart as our D got decimated by injuries, and this part we need to solve is depth at D and so we sank hard, Demko wasn't standing on his head and it just fell apart. 

 This is why we need to go after as many D  prospects and picks and not stop until we're loaded up. 

 We spent so much on forwards that should have been D instead but NOW is when we need to go after it in spades. 

Enough is enough! Seriously, why settle for good when there's elite? 

All the best teams have had D depth, why on earth do we think/have thought, we could somehow skip that part ffs? 

It just doesn't work that way for Mr. Stanley sad to say... 

 

[Gawdzukes]

23 hours ago, DSVII said:

I was originally of the opinion that we have to trade one of Boeser, Garland or both. But with the way the cap increase is structured, a saavy team will pounce on us to acquire Boeser and Garland for pennies on the dollar because we are on the cap crunch, and in 2025/2026 the cap is projected to go up by 5-6 mil. This would instantly make both those players bargains because they'll appreciate in value due to the lower % of cap they represent in 2 years time.

 

I know it goes against everything this team has ever done, which has been taking the short cuts and competing now at the expense of the future, but the team has to seriously consider standing pat and letting the cards fall where they fall and then wait for the cap bump in 2025 to go for it after extending Petey.

 

By then, every team will have more cap space so the squeeze will not depress their trade values if we do decide to trade one of Boeser or Garland. Garland's $4.95 M in a 90M salary cap world is a bargain, as is Boeser's 6M and they are top 6 players, we wil be able to get more for them in that offseason than this year.

 

If we have to part with them, trade them a year from now rather than the $83M world this summer. 

 

 

At this point value for Boeser and Garland is inconsequential. Pennies on the dollar would be a godsend. Just need them gone. Even if the cap jumps up I don't see either one as being "valuable" anyway.

 

  

12 hours ago, iceman64 said:

 We spent so much on forwards that should have been D instead but NOW is when we need to go after it in spades. 

Enough is enough! Seriously, why settle for good when there's elite? 

All the best teams have had D depth, why on earth do we think/have thought, we could somehow skip that part ffs? 

It just doesn't work that way for Mr. Stanley sad to say... 

 

Exactly. It's been absolutely mind boggling. It's as if they thought they had the inside track that the NHL was going to make defenceman illegal.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Gawdzukes

[HorvatToBaertschi]

I'd talk to our core guys (EP, Huggy, Demko and Miller) and see where they're at and what they want. If they see us going into the playoffs and they want support, I hope management will listen.

 

In a perfect world, all 4 of them can wait it out 1 more year, but our core is hitting their prime and it's time to get the wheels turning. 

[The Lock]

I've expressed disapproval of big buyouts in other threads in the past and I'll continue to do so here. An OEL buyout at this point would just be another move similar to the trade that brought OEL here in the 1st place minus the fact that we don't get anything out of it in return outside of immediate cap space.

 

It's not saving us money so much as it is moving the money down the road, making it harder for us long term in my opinion. In the best case scenario, we would have a cup contender (or at least a playoff team) if we are to take what we're being promised by management with an ounce of seriousness. If we bought out OEL right now, that's almost a 5mil cap hit for the years 2025-27. That's only 2mil in savings per year during those 2 seasons: https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/oliver-ekman-larsson

 

So imagine having a 5 mil cap hit that doesn't give us anything during the years when we should have a good team. Not a good look.

Edited June 7, 2023 by The Lock

[mll]

48 minutes ago, The Lock said:

I've expressed disapproval of big buyouts in other threads in the past and I'll continue to do so here. An OEL buyout at this point would just be another move similar to the trade that brought OEL here in the 1st place minus the fact that we don't get anything out of it in return outside of immediate cap space.

 

It's not saving us money so much as it is moving the money down the road, making it harder for us long term in my opinion. In the best case scenario, we would have a cup contender (or at least a playoff team) if we are to take what we're being promised by management with an ounce of seriousness. If we bought out OEL right now, that's almost a 5mil cap hit for the years 2025-27. That's only 2mil in savings per year during those 2 seasons: https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/oliver-ekman-larsson

 

So imagine having a 5 mil cap hit that doesn't give us anything during the years when we should have a good team. Not a good look.

Will he be in the lineup or warming the bench.   If he's not playing that's 7.2M in the pressbox when they could spend 2.4M on someone they actually trust to be in the lineup even if they have 4.8M in dead cap - still same total of 7.2M but useful player vs someone they won't play.  

 

Hope is that his lack of mobility was because of his foot injury and he'll back up to speed this coming season but if it's a real decline then that's not going to help Vancouver either.  

 

[The Lock]

Just now, mll said:

Will he be in the lineup or warming the bench.   If he's not playing that's 7.2M in the pressbox when they could spend 2.4M on someone they actually trust to be in the lineup even if they have 4.8M in dead cap - still same total of 7.2M but useful player vs someone they won't play.  

 

Hope is that his lack of mobility was because of his foot injury and he'll back up to speed this coming season but if it's a real decline then that's not going to help Vancouver either.  

 

We can certainly hope it was his lack of mobility.

 

I'd counter argue this with, if we want that extra player during those seasons, why not buy OEL out once we want that useful player rather than buy out OEL now?

[Guest]

Just now, mll said:

Will he be in the lineup or warming the bench.   If he's not playing that's 7.2M in the pressbox when they could spend 2.4M on someone they actually trust to be in the lineup even if they have 4.8M in dead cap - still same total of 7.2M but useful player vs someone they won't play.  

 

Hope is that his lack of mobility was because of his foot injury and he'll back up to speed this coming season but if it's a real decline then that's not going to help Vancouver either.  

 

It's ludicrous to suggest that a healthy OEL won't be in the lineup. 

 

If we get the 2021-22 OEL, that's a 6 million dman worth of value. Really not a big stretch to expect a bounce back to his previous year's form when he was healthy.