[Discussion] Rank These Recent Long-Term Contracts

[Phil_314]

Because it's the dog days of the offseason (and because JT Miller's "no-good, all-bad, albatross" deal is about to start), I thought it'd be fun to have a ranking/ discussion.  
Premise is simple: based on any mix of factors (player age, term length, clauses involved, injury history, player's ability to come close to meeting contract expectations... or not, etc.; have fun with it!), rank the following players on their likelihood of living up to the contract they've signed.

Jonathan Huberdeau (30 years old, $10.5 million AAV until 2031, full NMC)
Bo Horvat (28 years old, $8.5 million AAV until 2031, modified or full NTC throughout)

JT Miller (30 years old, $8 million AAV until 2030, NMC throughout)

Tom Wilson (29 years old, $6.5 AAV until 2031, modified NTC throughout)

I would personally rank them Miller (1 less year of term, plus his durability so far gives me hope that with his conditioning he can remain pretty productive into his 30s) > Horvat (he may not score as much as Huberdeau but his faceoff ability and durability give him a safe floor to at least contribute in defensive duties) > Huberdeau (it's a toss-up between him and Horvat, as his scoring upside is higher but he's also older and costs more, so he probably has fewer prime years ahead with strong offense to live up to expectation) > Wilson (can't see his PF game being sustainable given the physical toll it takes on him); curious to hear your rankings and reasoning!

(Also feel free to add players with similar age and term that I may have missed)

 

Edited August 5, 2023 by Phil_314

[hammertime]

I think the Wilson one will be fine. He's got a few good years left and then he will go on LTIR.

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

Really depends on which teams intend to rebuild.  I think Tom Wilson a prefectly fine deal because they're locking up their future captain during some pretty rough post-Ovie years.  The only challenge for Washington will be staying above the cap floor.

 

It's all based on the team situation.  If they're trying to compete, then a lot of these contracts don't look great.  If they're planning on rebuilding soon, who cares?

[shiznak]

Wilson’s contract isn’t even that bad. Plus, he’s the most likely one out of the group, to be placed on LTIR.

 

Miller and Horvat are interchangeable. While Horvat is paid more and provides less points. He’s two years younger, and probably won’t hampered the team, as much as Miller, at the tail end of their contracts.

 

Right now Huberdeau’s contract looks like the worst, but he’s too far talented to put up the numbers he had last season. He could easily be a PPG player throughout his contract. 

[canuck73_3]

Miller

Horvat

Huberdeau

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wilson, I love Wilson but this is gonna age like a wet fart in an elevator. The guy is already good for a suspension a year and injury prone. 

[Kevin Biestra]

Miller and Wilson seem like the two livable ones.  Huberdeau and Horvat are getting bought out.

[Elias Pettersson]

Miller has the best contract by far. He’s the only one who actually lived up to it last year. Huberdeau is by far the worst contract. He will get bought out for sure. Horvat won’t live up to his deal but he probably plays it out in full. He will be a very expensive 3rd line centre for several years. Wilson will probably get bought out as well.  Wilson might be the one who gets his contact ended first. 
 

So in order, Miller, Wilson, Horvat and Huberdeau.  

[Devron]

Miller

Horvat

Wilson

Huberdeau

 

Horvats contract would be better on a different team. Still over paid. His number should be 7. Id love a Horvat on my team for 7 

[wildcam]

33 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Miller has the best contract by far. He’s the only one who actually lived up to it last year. Huberdeau is by far the worst contract. He will get bought out for sure. Horvat won’t live up to his deal but he probably plays it out in full. He will be a very expensive 3rd line centre for several years. Wilson will probably get bought out as well.  Wilson might be the one who gets his contact ended first. 
 

So in order, Miller, Wilson, Horvat and Huberdeau.  

Millers contract is thes best out of these 4 player..Miller will also put up decent points.Maybe 3rd line centre last 2 yrs of contract..

Miller should put up decent points next 5 yrs-- 68--78 point-- last 2 years 36--42 points----- 8 million

Horvat  next 5 yrs --54--63 points---- last 3 yrs 35--40 --- 8.5 million

Huberdeau  next 5 yrs --72--80  points-- 10.5 million

Wilson--next 5 yrs-- 46--54 points---- 6.5 million

[wildcam]

1 hour ago, Kevin Biestra said:

Miller and Wilson seem like the two livable ones.  Huberdeau and Horvat are getting bought out.

I don't think teams would buy either players out..

Horvat will be over paid but will produce 55--62 points-- PP--great in circle and plays solid 200 foot game -- should be 6.8--7 mil

 

Huberdeau -- lucky to hit 76--82 points---- over paid-- tops. 8.5 -- 8.8 million

 

[Kevin Biestra]

3 minutes ago, wildcam said:

I don't think teams would buy either players out..

Horvat will be over paid but will produce 55--62 points-- PP--great in circle and plays solid 200 foot game -- should be 6.8--7 mil

 

Huberdeau -- lucky to hit 76--82 points---- over paid-- tops. 8.5 -- 8.8 million

 

We'll see I guess.  Horvat might have just had his Jonathan Cheechoo year...

[NewbieCanuckFan]

1 hour ago, Kevin Biestra said:

Miller and Wilson seem like the two livable ones.  Huberdeau and Horvat are getting bought out.

Horvat has the luxory of showing chemistry with a legimate 1st line forward (which Horvat isn't imho) - Barzal.

[Alflives]

Miller’s contract is an awesome team friendly one.

Wilson’s is good because he does do much more than just score.

Huberdough’s is beyond bad. He’s a loser player on a loser team. With a loser contract. 
 

But, by far, Horvat’s contract is now the worst in hockey. It’s laughably bad. Bo “elephant in the room” Horfat wallet is all about the money. Than God he’s gone. 

[Elias Pettersson]

28 minutes ago, wildcam said:

Millers contract is thes best out of these 4 player..Miller will also put up decent points.Maybe 3rd line centre last 2 yrs of contract..

Miller should put up decent points next 5 yrs-- 68--78 point-- last 2 years 36--42 points----- 8 million

Horvat  next 5 yrs --54--63 points---- last 3 yrs 35--40 --- 8.5 million

Huberdeau  next 5 yrs --72--80  points-- 10.5 million

Wilson--next 5 yrs-- 46--54 points---- 6.5 million

I think Miller's numbers will be at PPG at least for the next 3-4 years.  He's going to get to play with Petey and Kuzy on PP1, so I can see him in the 85 point range for 3-4 years.  He may even surprise and push 90 points depending on if Boeser can rebound and if Podkolzin can take the next step.  Miller and Podkolzin had great chemistry together in Podkolzin's rookie season.

 

I see  Kuzmenko   Pettersson   Mikheyev as the bonafide 1st line next year and Miller and Boeser playing together on the 2nd line with either Beauviliier, Hoglander or Podkolzin as the 3rd wheel.  Love to see this for the top 2 lines:

 

Kuzmenko    Pettersson   Mikheyev

Podkolzin     Miller            Boeser

 

Beauvillier, Hoglander, Garland and Pearson can fight it out for the 3rd line wingers...

[Toews]

Wilson is one of those players who is both drastically overrated by some and severely undervalued by others. What has to be recognized is that his impact is so much greater than what appears on the scoreboard. He is a true unicorn and there are very few comparable players that catch match the skillset that he brings to the table. Most of those comparables are just not as good as Wilson is, so they don't see the ice nearly as much as he does. Then there is the reality that the NHL is the only major league with a drastically different rulebook for the playoffs and the regular season and it makes Wilson's impact all the more greater. Comparing Wilson to a skilled finesse player like Huberdeau honestly feels like comparing a forward to a defenseman or a defenseman to a goalie, it just doesn't make much sense to me at all.

 

The best way to describe the situation I can think of is of going to a entirely different sport and looking at Draymond Green of the Warriors. Green isn't the driving force of his team. When he was the best player on the team, that team was one of if not the worst teams in the league. Charles Barkley even mocked him by calling him "Triple Single". Yet the Warriors have no shot at winning a title without Green, that's the kind of impact I see from Wilson. It simply cannot be measured by any statistical measure.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Toews

[higgyfan]

Miller's contract won't drag too much, as the Canucks will continue to be a team that score a lot of

goals for many years to come.  When he's motivated, he can bring so much to his game and seems

to have chemistry with anyone that gets thrown onto his line.  Eventually he will from a 2-way crashing

and scoring line with Podz and Nielsen. 

 

Wilson's 6m won't seem so bad as the salary cap will continue to trend upward.  He is a 100% Capitals

product who will lead the way as Captain when Ovie retires.  That will be when the Caps start a rebuild

and Wilson will be the one that keeps the environment safe for the newbies while showing them how to

NHL play hockey.

 

Horvat is already overpaid for what he brings to his team.  It will be very difficult for him to come anywhere

close to repeating his last season's stats; especially playing on a team that doesn't have much offensive

power (not 1 player had a pt a game last season).  Unfortunately, the Isle's are becoming an old team and

don't really look like a contender anytime soon, so Bo may find himself on a team starting a rebuild in a couple

of years. 

 

Huberdeau is in a similar situation as Horvat, due to the Flames have an even worse team offensively and

4 of their top players will probably not re-sign with the team next July.  His is by far the worst contract.  Afterall,

that's a hefty sum of 10.5mx8yrs for a player that has only had a pt a game 4 times in his 11yr career and that

was on a team that had more offense than Calgary.  Geez, take away Toffee's pts and it looks very grim.

 

Kadri is in the same boat as Huberdeau when it comes to playing on an aging team that has little offence.

Although he plays a more rounded game, one has to address the reality of a guy who will have turned

33yrs old at the beginning of the coming season and still have another 7mx6yrs on his contract.  I wonder

how long he can continue playing his style of game.

 

 

[BarnBurner]

6 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

We'll see I guess.  Horvat might have just had his Jonathan Cheechoo year...

He sure might have, and, being based on it was his contract year. 

 

I'm not a hater, but he hasn't lived up to becoming the player I had hoped he would. 

 

Huberdeau's contract is the worst, followed by Bo's. 

 

There is no way Bo is going to maintain a 30+ goal a year pace, especially with that Islander team. 

 

I personally, would take prime Smyl over Bo, every day. 

 

 

[Kevin Biestra]

1 hour ago, BarnBurner said:

He sure might have, and, being based on it was his contract year. 

 

I'm not a hater, but he hasn't lived up to becoming the player I had hoped he would. 

 

Huberdeau's contract is the worst, followed by Bo's. 

 

There is no way Bo is going to maintain a 30+ goal a year pace, especially with that Islander team. 

 

I personally, would take prime Smyl over Bo, every day.

 

Smyl vs. Bo, my god that isn't even a comparison.  Most people also forget or don't know Smyl was a top 20 scorer in the NHL at his peak.  That's without all of the intangibles...and few have ever had more of those.

[IBatch]

OP should add Kadri, 7 x 7 at the age of 31 four years NMC, last 3 years 13 NTC .. so 36,37,38...

 

Miller, Kadri, Wilson, Horvat, Huberdeau for me ... Miller and Kadri are pretty close though.   One less million, one year older.   The 13 team list makes it somewhat easier to trade later.    All the guys but maybe Wilson can play reduced roles as they age (Wilson...he's going through a big procedure now..that style breaks you down). 

Edited August 14, 2023 by IBatch

[iinatcc]

10 hours ago, Alflives said:

Miller’s contract is an awesome team friendly one.

Wilson’s is good because he does do much more than just score.

Huberdough’s is beyond bad. He’s a loser player on a loser team. With a loser contract. 
 

But, by far, Horvat’s contract is now the worst in hockey. It’s laughably bad. Bo “elephant in the room” Horfat wallet is all about the money. Than God he’s gone. 

I don't see how Miller's contract can be considered awesome. Even if you like it now, considering his age, there's a probable risk he falls off half way through the contract.

 

I don't see how Horvat's contract is worse (or better) than Miller. Miller is older than Horvat and has a bigger change of falling off earlier than Horvat's extension. Plus even if Horvat is overpaid now, I wager, provided no one has any injury problems, the back half of Horvat's contract has mre value than the back half of Miller's.