JamesB Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I am a Canuck fan and have been one for a long time. There are few things I want more than to see the Canucks win a Stanley Cup. And adding good young prospects over the past two years gives me hope for the future. But next year I expect the Canucks to miss the playoffs. Here are the reasons. Most of this covers material that has been much discussed, but this puts things together. 1. Goaltending. The Canucks have 3 waiver-eligible goalies. One has to go. After the recent Benning interview (June 11) it is clear that Miller will stay and either Lack or Markstrom will go. This is consistent with the rumor that there is no market for Miller. (His save % was 32nd in the NHL last year among qualified goalies -- well below average. He finished the season with an injury and at his age (35 in July) he may never recover 100%. Even if he does re-injury is a concern and age-related decline is likely. No GM wants to pay 6 million a year for the next two years in that situation.) When asked about re-signing Lack after next year Benning has been lukewarm at best. The issue is money. As a legit starting NHL goalie Lack should command about 4 million a year -- a big increase that the Canucks cannot afford, especially given Benning's propensity to overpay. And Benning has indicated that he wants to get a second round pick for whichever of Lack or Markstrom is traded. A second round pick is more likely in return for Lack. So next year I predict that Miller will return as the #1 and Markstrom will be the backup. That combo is unlikely to be as good as last year. So I think goaltending will be slightly worse next year and probably below the NHL average. 2. Defence Edler and Tanev were good last year and will return as the top pairing and will probably have a similar year. So no change in the top pairing. Edler is in his prime and Tanev is close to his so there is no change expected due to age effects. They are a legitimate NHL top pairing but no more than that. Hammer is still a good top 4 D who will anchor the second pairing, but he is getting older. On the right side the options are Weber, Bieksa, Clendening and Corrado, all of whom are likely to be on the team next year. None of those guys will be a legitimate top 4 D next year (although I think Clendening will be in the future). My guess is that Weber continues on the second pairing. I see the second pairing as similar in quality to last year or slightly worse -- no better than average for a second pairing. The 3rd pairing has Sbisa on the left side and my guess is Clendening on the right side with Bieksa as 7th man and Corrado as 8th man. (That means Stanton is gone -- either waived or traded for next to nothing.) This 3rd pairing would be okay but no better than the NHL average for a 3rd pairing. 3. Forwards. The Sedins will still be the best players on the team and will play on the first line with Burrows (same as the end of last year). That line will be good again but we have to expect some age-related decline. I think they will be a legitimate NHL first line (about average) but no more than that. The second line will have Bonino and Vrbata again. Everything Benning has said indicates that the 2LW slot is Baertschi's to lose. He has been excellent in Utica and Benning has said that he is the kind of guy who needs to play with other skill players to maximize his value. So he replaces Higgins. Baertschi could become a star down the road but, for next year, I see that change as a wash as Baertschi is better on offense but not as good on D as Higgins. Vrbata will be a year older and Bonino should be about the same. This line will be similar in quality to what it was last year or maybe slightly worse due to age-related decline for Vrbata. The third line will have Horvat at center. The wingers are up for grabs. Hansen will probably be on one wing (RW or LW depending on the other wing). The other wing could be Higgins, Kassian, Kenins, Virtanen or someone else. My money is on Higgy unless he is traded. This line could be a slight improvement over last year's 3rd line. The 4th line does not have an obvious center. Right now Vey is 4th on depth chart at center. Dorsett will be on one wing. The other wing could be Kassian, Virtanen, Grenier or Kenins. This line might be similar in quality to the 4th line last year. 4. Overall the Canucks should be slight worse in all three areas next year: goaltending, defence, and forwards The Canucks have no money for free agents and the cap is a major problem for them. As for competition, Anaheim will be good again next year. LA should bounce back. Calgary will be good again. They will all finish ahead of the Canucks next year. The Canucks will be fighting with San Jose and Edmonton and a potential crossover team from the Central Division. The odds are against making the playoffs. The good thing is that the Canucks get a high draft pick in a good draft next year and can make trades at the deadline to acquire more picks, have a monster draft in 2016 and contend for a cup two or three years after that. And young guys will improve over the next few years. In their prime guys like Horvat, Clendening, Baertschi, Virtanen, Pedan, Markstrom, McCann, Cassels, Demko, etc. should be very good. Okay guys, where are the flaws in this analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thejazz97 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Okay guys, where are the flaws in this analysis. You picked the Canucks to miss the playoffs, for one thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24K PureCool Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 A tad too early for this don't you think? At least wait until after free agency when we know what we have going into next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreFan1 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 The Canucks will make the playoffs again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Why the Canucks will miss the playoffs next year. Colorado/Dallas/Winnipeg/San Jose/LA/Edmonton cannot be counted on to have bad years to ensure our playoff berth. And with Chiarelli in Edmonton they cannot be counted on the be total bottom feeders anymore 4 losses within our division saw LA in the playoffs and us not. Just think on that for a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HC20.0 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Considering we haven't even hit the draft yet, let's not jump the gun. No moves have been made so far. You can't say we'll miss the playoffs when we don't even have our set roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crabcakes Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 The analysis is fine as the team is right now. I can't see how there won't be other changes though. There are clearly holes on defense that were exposed in the playoffs against Calgary and the team is cap challenged. Goaltending - they're taking a flyer on Markstrom but don't really have a choice Defense - Benning wants PMD's to help with the transition game. He identified that after the Calgary series. After having watched Utica play a lot recently (was it 14 games?) he considers both Clendening and Corrado to be PMD's. I still think he needs to add a physical presence on the back end. Forwards - I think are solid. As solid as a transition group can be. The more I think about it, the fewer changes I think are necessary. Burrows, Higgins, Hansen and Bonino will be playing up and down the lineup over the next few years as various young players develop. If anybody is moved out, it will depend on whether a big salary can be moved (I'm thinking Bieksa or Hamhuis). I think it is a foregone conclusion that Matthias and probably Richardson won't be back. This will make room for Baertschi and one other prospect (Gaunce, Grenier, Kenins) to make the lineup as the 13th man. Bennings actions will depend on who he can trade. Will it be Bieksa? Hamhuis? or a forward. The only 3 prospects we could bet on making the team would be Baertschi, Corrado and Clendening. But Benning has indicated that other players may earn spots too. Virtanen has impressed, so has Grenier. Overall, I don't think next years team will be weaker. This doesn't guarantee a playoff spot but like last summer, I still think they finish in 6-10th place in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HockeyHound93 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Why the Canucks will miss the playoffs next year. Colorado/Dallas/Winnipeg/San Jose/LA/Edmonton cannot be counted on to have bad years to ensure our playoff berth. And with Chiarelli in Edmonton they cannot be counted on the be total bottom feeders anymore 4 losses within our division saw LA in the playoffs and us not. Just think on that for a moment. Edmonton? They look to be getting better but I still don't think they'll make the playoffs. 4 more losses and were out? On the other hand, 4 more wins and were competing with the Ducks for the division lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RWMc1 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Markstrom could be the wildcard. Miller is better than our fans will admit. Lack may stay over Markstrom. Bonino Vrbata and Baertschi could play more of an offensive role this coming season because Horvat is ready to be our shutdown center. Bonino and Horvat shared those duties last season. Dorsett will probably play alongside Horvat and Hansen or Horvat and Kenins. Burrows will probably share duties with Kassian on the 1st depending on our opponent. I believe that Benning will make 1 or 2 changes on D. LA and Calgary are not locks to be better than us. We will make the Playoffs. 3rd at least possibly 2nd again. The only way we miss is if our # 1 goalie goes down early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elvis15 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 A tad too early for this don't you think? At least wait until after free agency when we know what we have going into next season. /thread We have no idea who's going to be re-signed and who will be traded/drafted/picked up in free agency. Until we get a better idea closer to camp (and even in camp) it's just too hard to try and predict anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Edmonton? They look to be getting better but I still don't think they'll make the playoffs. 4 more losses and were out? On the other hand, 4 more wins and were competing with the Ducks for the division lead. Exactly. To many variables Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimberWolf Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 /thread We have no idea who's going to be re-signed and who will be traded/drafted/picked up in free agency. Until we get a better idea closer to camp (and even in camp) it's just too hard to try and predict anything like this. Not that hard to predict. Lack and Kassian will be moved so Benning can get his picks back and we'll start the season with most the same roster that got intimidated by the Flames lolipop guild with some minor changes to the supporting cast be happy to eat crow but that's how I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Too much speculation not enough rosterbation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smithers joe Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 what ever happens, i know the players will be doing their best to win and that manage will continue to try and build a cup winning team, like every team will do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BanTSN Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I hope they miss, because if they don't, that means the rest of the league has become THAT damn bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Remy Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Oh look, another "every team will improve except the Canucks" thread. I've seen a million of these. They underestimate the Canucks and overestimate everyone else. Nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintPatrick33 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I like your analysis JamesB, except the part where we see progression for the young guys. Horvat could and should be a 2nd line center, and we should have at least 2-3 young guys (Virtanen, Gaunce, Clendening) up with the big club. Our team already knows how to play our system and Willie has done a good job with accountability. The regular season is much different than playoffs, I think we will do just fine, and remain competitive for a playoff spot. The only factor that guarantees a playoff miss is if any of the Sedins get injured. IMO no players are more valuable to the team than the Sedins. I just don't see anyone else being able to consistently create offence on the team right now. The West is a much tougher race, but I like our chances in year 2 of the Linden and Willie era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilliesStache14 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 even if they make it they're going out in the first round again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintPatrick33 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 even if they make it they're going out in the first round again Yea but my expectations are for the young players to get a shot and improve. I dont think anyone here is expecting a Cup win, but we need to see that some of our prospects are going to become solid NHLers. At least Horvat got some playoff experience last year, even if watching that series made me punch holes in the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R3aL Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I am a Canuck fan and have been one for a long time. There are few things I want more than to see the Canucks win a Stanley Cup. And adding good young prospects over the past two years gives me hope for the future. But next year I expect the Canucks to miss the playoffs. Here are the reasons. Most of this covers material that has been much discussed, but this puts things together. 1. Goaltending. The Canucks have 3 waiver-eligible goalies. One has to go. After the recent Benning interview (June 11) it is clear that Miller will stay and either Lack or Markstrom will go. This is consistent with the rumor that there is no market for Miller. (His save % was 32nd in the NHL last year among qualified goalies -- well below average. He finished the season with an injury and at his age (35 in July) he may never recover 100%. Even if he does re-injury is a concern and age-related decline is likely. No GM wants to pay 6 million a year for the next two years in that situation.) When asked about re-signing Lack after next year Benning has been lukewarm at best. The issue is money. As a legit starting NHL goalie Lack should command about 4 million a year -- a big increase that the Canucks cannot afford, especially given Benning's propensity to overpay. And Benning has indicated that he wants to get a second round pick for whichever of Lack or Markstrom is traded. A second round pick is more likely in return for Lack. So next year I predict that Miller will return as the #1 and Markstrom will be the backup. That combo is unlikely to be as good as last year. So I think goaltending will be slightly worse next year and probably below the NHL average. 2. Defence Edler and Tanev were good last year and will return as the top pairing and will probably have a similar year. So no change in the top pairing. Edler is in his prime and Tanev is close to his so there is no change expected due to age effects. They are a legitimate NHL top pairing but no more than that. Hammer is still a good top 4 D who will anchor the second pairing, but he is getting older. On the right side the options are Weber, Bieksa, Clendening and Corrado, all of whom are likely to be on the team next year. None of those guys will be a legitimate top 4 D next year (although I think Clendening will be in the future). My guess is that Weber continues on the second pairing. I see the second pairing as similar in quality to last year or slightly worse -- no better than average for a second pairing. The 3rd pairing has Sbisa on the left side and my guess is Clendening on the right side with Bieksa as 7th man and Corrado as 8th man. (That means Stanton is gone -- either waived or traded for next to nothing.) This 3rd pairing would be okay but no better than the NHL average for a 3rd pairing. 3. Forwards. The Sedins will still be the best players on the team and will play on the first line with Burrows (same as the end of last year). That line will be good again but we have to expect some age-related decline. I think they will be a legitimate NHL first line (about average) but no more than that. The second line will have Bonino and Vrbata again. Everything Benning has said indicates that the 2LW slot is Baertschi's to lose. He has been excellent in Utica and Benning has said that he is the kind of guy who needs to play with other skill players to maximize his value. So he replaces Higgins. Baertschi could become a star down the road but, for next year, I see that change as a wash as Baertschi is better on offense but not as good on D as Higgins. Vrbata will be a year older and Bonino should be about the same. This line will be similar in quality to what it was last year or maybe slightly worse due to age-related decline for Vrbata. The third line will have Horvat at center. The wingers are up for grabs. Hansen will probably be on one wing (RW or LW depending on the other wing). The other wing could be Higgins, Kassian, Kenins, Virtanen or someone else. My money is on Higgy unless he is traded. This line could be a slight improvement over last year's 3rd line. The 4th line does not have an obvious center. Right now Vey is 4th on depth chart at center. Dorsett will be on one wing. The other wing could be Kassian, Virtanen, Grenier or Kenins. This line might be similar in quality to the 4th line last year. 4. Overall the Canucks should be slight worse in all three areas next year: goaltending, defence, and forwards The Canucks have no money for free agents and the cap is a major problem for them. As for competition, Anaheim will be good again next year. LA should bounce back. Calgary will be good again. They will all finish ahead of the Canucks next year. The Canucks will be fighting with San Jose and Edmonton and a potential crossover team from the Central Division. The odds are against making the playoffs. The good thing is that the Canucks get a high draft pick in a good draft next year and can make trades at the deadline to acquire more picks, have a monster draft in 2016 and contend for a cup two or three years after that. And young guys will improve over the next few years. In their prime guys like Horvat, Clendening, Baertschi, Virtanen, Pedan, Markstrom, McCann, Cassels, Demko, etc. should be very good. Okay guys, where are the flaws in this analysis. You are a glass half empty kinda guy ain't you.. Impossible to predict our season at this point. Who predicted Calgary to make the playoffs last year at this time? Common man have some faith in our team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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