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[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

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2 minutes ago, Provost said:

It was insulting to the guy it was offered to and rejected it.

 

The guy who went on to sign with another team instead so was clearly valued more highly by the market.

 

 

Allegedly 

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21 minutes ago, Provost said:

It was insulting to the guy it was offered to and rejected it.

 

The guy who went on to sign with another team instead so was clearly valued more highly by the market.

 

 

so, nothing by anyone, other than yourself, that it was an insulting offer?

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Quick facts in regards to the upcoming schedule.

 

 

 

 

12 games left with 8 on the road. 12 games in 20 days. Our road record is 7-12-1. Our home record is 12-10-2. Our record in backs to back is 5-8-1 and our record for the 2nd game of back to backs is 1-5-1(1st game of back to back record is 4-3-0)

 

8 of those games will be backs to back(four back to backs in total). 2 of those back to backs are Home/Away(will require travel) and also we play those games in a 5 day span(4 games in 5 days).

 

Only 1 day rest in between games and a total of 8 rest days and we could be travelling most of those rest days(5 of them if we decided to travel during them).

 

To put this into perspective we had 3 back to backs in the month of January in almost the same type of schedule(11 games in 18 days in January). Big difference is we started the season playing this schedule in January. We were fresh at the start of the season. This time around we've already played 7 games in 12 days in April prior to this upcoming 12 games in 20 days during May(plus today's rest day April 30th). We're not fresh this time around and we are coming off COVID. 

Edited by Junkyard Dog
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4 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Quick facts in regards to the upcoming schedule.

 

 

 

 

12 games left with 8 on the road. 12 games in 20 days. Our road record is 7-12-1. Our home record is 12-10-2. Our record in backs to back is 5-8-1 and our record for the 2nd game of back to backs is 1-5-1(1st game of back to back record is 4-3-0)

 

8 of those games will be backs to back(four back to backs in total). 2 of those back to backs are Home/Away(will require travel) and also we play those games in a 5 day span(4 games in 5 days).

 

Only 1 day rest in between games and a total of 8 rest days and we could be travelling most of those rest days(5 of them if we decided to travel during them).

 

To put this into perspective we had 3 back to backs in the month of January in almost the same type of schedule(11 games in 18 days in January). Big difference is we started the season playing this schedule in January. We were fresh at the start of the season. This time around we've already played 7 games in 12 days in April prior to this upcoming 12 games in 20 days during May(plus today's rest day April 30th). We're not fresh this time around and we are coming off COVID. 

so . . . were going to get screwed over again in the lottery

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7 hours ago, granpappy said:

so . . . were going to get screwed over again in the lottery

So a good time to get on the tank train and maybe stay in the top 5 after moving 2 spots back in the lottery. 

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7 minutes ago, spur1 said:

So a good time to get on the tank train and maybe stay in the top 5 after moving 2 spots back in the lottery. 

It would sure be nice getting into Luke Hughes territory for a pick.


There doesn’t seem to be much to choose between the top 5 or so picks, so why not pick the kid that may help connect our current star to the team a little more closely.

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  • Provost changed the title to [Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!
Posted (edited)

Honestly after such a bummer season a good draft pick could do wonders for us. I hope our boys play well done the stretch but I feel defeated and I'm just ready for this season to be over... 

Edited by shayster007
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4 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Clarke or Guenther please. 

Clarke would be awesome, unfortunately the pick odds aren't in our favour for 5th, unless of course we drop every game for the rest of the year. 

 

I don't think he's available at 5 tho, I bet he goes 3rd. 

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Just now, Jimmy McGill said:

Clarke would be awesome, unfortunately the pick odds aren't in our favour for 5th, unless of course we drop every game for the rest of the year. 

 

I don't think he's available at 5 tho, I bet he goes 3rd. 

He could go anywhere in the top 6. Guenther has had top 5 rankings too. 

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On 4/30/2021 at 7:21 AM, granpappy said:

so . . . were going to get screwed over again in the lottery

It's an annual rite of Summer. Think of it as Tradition!

 

 

                                                   regards,  G.

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7 hours ago, Gollumpus said:

It's an annual rite of Summer. Think of it as Tradition!

 

 

                                                   regards,  G.

.. and the classic “If I were a rich man... I would buy a big tall arena with seats by the dozen, right in the middle of the town.  Replace a crappy owner and try to build a real hockey team to show...”

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This draft is wild I think the only steady top 3 player is Owen Power after that it’s dealers choice. As long as we don’t have 3 teams leap us in the lottery we could have a chance at almost anybody. The draft is lacking a true superstar run away prospect but don’t let that fool you top end talent is really good with this top 10.

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On 2/18/2021 at 12:33 PM, Provost said:

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, even if we are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Since it is only in division games, points will be awarded to the teams we are chasing on any given night.  The normal path to gain ground in a playoff chase from other seasons is that a team falters and loses points to non division rivals, meaning that we can catch them just by playing better than they do.  That simply doesn't exist this year.

Since we have already fallen behind, we don't have to catch one team to make the playoffs, we have to surpass two of the three teams above us (Toronto and Montreal are already out of reach).

The three teams we are realistically chasing play around 20 more games against each other... meaning we have no chance at all of gaining ground on them those games, even if we won 100% of our games on the same night (which we obviously won't).  At least two points will be awarded to one of the teams we are chasing, and sometimes 3 points.  We only have a chance of matching or losing ground in a big chunk of the remaining games to be played by our rivals against each other.

That is a big chunk of the season remaining and opportunities to catch up.  Once you correct for games in hand and winning percentages, we are currently:
- about 4.2 points behind Calgary
- about 6.75 points behind Winnipeg
- about 5.2 points behind Edmonton

Assuming around 63 points to make the playoffs that means we would have to play .640 hockey the rest of the way out (23-13 record).  The teams we are chasing only need to crack .550 the rest of the way out to stay ahead of us and reach that 63 points plateau.  Specifically, only two of them need to hit that mark for us to not make the playoffs even if we went on a huge hot streak.  Refer back to the above point where they play each other a lot and at least one team is going to get points and it will be harder for them all to drop to lower than .500 since they are sharing so many guaranteed points between them.

So, unlike most seasons... we have only a few paths to the playoffs now and they are much more limited and unlikely than in normal years.

1.  Toronto and Montreal basically run the table when they play at least 2 of Calgary, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.. but Toronto and Montreal don't dominate us in similar fashion so we can make up points in those games.
2.  Ottawa steals a bunch of points from two of those three teams we are chasing (but not so much that Ottawa passes us as well), but doesn't steal points from us in similar fashion.
3.  We win around 3/4ths of our remaining games against two of the three teams we are chasing

All of those are possible, but not terribly likely.  Our current odds of making the playoffs sit at 15-17% according to sites like Moneypuck.

Our next 6 games are against those teams we are chasing.  We probably have to go 5-1 over that stretch to have made up any ground at all on at least two of the teams we need to pass (gaining ground on one team doesn't do us any good since they would be giving up points to one of the other teams we are also chasing at the same time).  Going 3-3 even probably puts the practical seal on our playoff chances since there would be far fewer games left at that point to make up the ground still needed... 

 

Edit:  as of 26 February, the odds sit around 2.5%.  No team has ever come back from under 4%.  All the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the first few pages by folks can be moved on from by any reasonable person.  In reality though, we were always going to lose 3 games eventually and other teams we were chasing them would win some.  It just happened quickly.

 

Edit: 01 May... after a last spurt of misplaced ire, even the diehards now admit the playoffs are (and we’re) out of reach.  Hopefully playing the kids and doing auditions for next year is the plan the rest of the way out.  A bottom 5 finish isn’t out of the question... so we can hope now that our draft position improves.
 

Lier I am a die hard and I still believe the Canucks are making the playoffs watch out Tor. Don't speak for me

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8 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

I am guaranteeing it. The Canucks will be playing games when the playoffs begin

Dude of course they are. They will play out the remaining meaningless games vs Calgary while playoffs begin. You owe Provost an apology my dude.

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9 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

I am guaranteeing it. The Canucks will be playing games when the playoffs begin

I know we had a whole argument about semantics last week ahah, but our destiny is kinda no longer in our control, even if we run the table we need Montreal to lose almost all their remaining games.

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1 minute ago, FijianCanuck said:

Dude of course they are. They will play out the remaining meaningless games vs Calgary while playoffs begin. You owe Provost an apology my dude.

no game is meaningless and I didn't say they would be playing playoff games

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