[Signing] Oilers re-sign Darnell Nurse

[D.B Cooper]

In a couple years when McDavid is tired of losing and leaves, this will be one of the major reasons.  
This is going to be one of the worst contracts in the league in 4-5 years.  Maybe 2 depending on CMcD and how much longer he can take the abuse.  
 

My first thought when seeing this was ‘oh great. The oilers are getting more 1st overall picks’

 

[MikeBossy]

Not sure the annual dollars are that far out but that term - especially considering he will only need to play 35+ minutes a night every season with the core they have right now - and don't forget how dominant he was in the playoffs....... oh wait 

[Elias Pettersson]

The funniest part about the Oilers defence is that both Barrie and Ceci were playing for Toronto at the same time and were their 2 RHD on the top 4 in 2019.  If it didn't work in Toronto and they got rid of both of them after only one year what makes Holland think it's going to work out better in Edmonton?

 

Holland has lost it.  Way past his prime.  Needs to retire and live the good life now...

[MattJVD]

6 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

The funniest part about the Oilers defence is that both Barrie and Ceci were playing for Toronto at the same time and were their 2 RHD on the top 4 in 2019.  If it didn't work in Toronto and they got rid of both of them after only one year what makes Holland think it's going to work out better in Edmonton?

 

Holland has lost it.  Way past his prime.  Needs to retire and live the good life now...

Barrie makes sense in Edmonton to me, they don't have another powerplay QB. He was redundant in Toronto with Reilly

[kloubek]

1 hour ago, MattJVD said:

Barrie makes sense in Edmonton to me, they don't have another powerplay QB. He was redundant in Toronto with Reilly

I agree. With Klef out, they badly needed scoring from the blueline. 

 

As for Nurse, I truly think that's an unreal contract. He is now paid like a top 5-10D in this league and he just... isn't.

Edited August 7, 2021 by kloubek

[D-Money]

5 minutes ago, kloubek said:

I agree. With Klef out, they badly needed scoring from the blueline. 

 

As for Nurse, I truly think that's an unreal contract. He is now paid like a top 5-10D in this league and he just... isn't.

To be honest, Nurse was probably a top-10 D man last year. He was definitely better than Jones and Werenski. Once they got that money, it seemed inevitable that Nurse would get similar to stay in Edmonton.

 

But he doesn’t have the body of work that most of the top guys do. Will he keep it up? Or was last year an outlier?

 

[kloubek]

37 minutes ago, D-Money said:

To be honest, Nurse was probably a top-10 D man last year. He was definitely better than Jones and Werenski. Once they got that money, it seemed inevitable that Nurse would get similar to stay in Edmonton.

 

But he doesn’t have the body of work that most of the top guys do. Will he keep it up? Or was last year an outlier?

 

I agree he had a really good year. And - let's be honest - it's tough to have a good year in Edmonton unless you are a standout.

 

I just don't know if that one year is a realistic sample size to make that kind of commitment. We will see. At least if nothing else, he does bring other elements the Oilers need more of.. not less of.

[Mustard Tiger]

LMFAO. If any of our middling talent pulls this crap we better ship them out prior. Nurse is a OK reg season guy. Shows his faults come playoff time. And they will run him into the ground with his style of play ( diving to the ice must hurt a bit over time ) and the 30 min games / 5min shift will wear this man down.
Imagine if our off season included adding :
Keith 5.5m
Ceci 3.25m
Barrie 4.5m
Hyman 5.5m

All while resigning mike smith AGAIN for 2 year, While having a potential superstar goalie prospect fall into their lap, Then trading the pick and later drafting a small-average size middle 6 center lol. Now give nurse 9.25. HAHA how this isnt the worst managed team in almost all aspects. Take mcdavid out of that line and they dont win 20+ games easy.

Also seem to be over the cap as it stands, Zero secondary scoring unless you couldnt mcdavid has line 1 and everyone 2 & 3. Literally zero depth if injuries, Seriously nobody. Especially on D. And have to sign yams. 

 

I guess the real question is, Which kenney in AHLberta is more crazy?

[khay]

6 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I don’t think Hughes (or his agent) would expect that kind of a deal.

 

The market still operates under a flawed system where UFA years are more valuable than RFA years, and we haven’t really seen things adjust to reality. 
 

The market has shifted to more appropriately reward RFA years, with many young star players signing big second deals that more adequately reward them for their prime playing years.
 

What hasn’t happened (yet) is the market correcting for the true value of UFA years. We continue to see the overpayment of players signing extensions at ages 26-30, with very high cap hits and lengthy terms, even though the vast majority of those players will decline through those contracts, and many (especially in the recent crop) will likely end up negative value over their term. 
 

I think eventually things will balance out, and you’ll see players make their really big money during the years when they are actually returning maximum value on the ice (ie: ages 20-27, give or take).

 

But we’re not there yet.

 

Anyway, back to Hughes…

 

Makar has set the market, when it comes to second contracts on young Dmen without many market comparables (if any, as, for the most part, as these guys are pretty unique).

 

Hughes, even if he’d had a similar season last year to the previous one (where he battled for the Calder), would probably come in at something slightly lower, like maybe $8-8.5M x 6 years, just based on the Makar comparison.

 

That’s if Hughes had maintained his 2019-20 performance levels.

 

But after having an off year last season, Hughes’s value should be set even lower. He hasn’t proven himself in back to back years like Makar has, so Hughes can’t really command the same dollars.

 

And right or wrong, the market still doesn’t really compare RFAs/10.2.c’s in their early twenties to UFAs in their mid-late twenties.
 

Inferior UFA aged players will still get paid more than the superior RFA aged players.
 

And probably even more so when it’s a 10.2.c “black box” player like Hughes.

 

He just doesn’t have the leverage.

 

And the market just doesn’t work that way.

 

The market is overheated though, and I’m sure the Avs are happy they got Makar done early, rather than later. Had they waited, who knows what he could command? 
 

There were no market comparables for Makar, so it was always kind of pulling numbers out of thin air. 
 

On pure value, however, the analytics say Makar is already worth $14-15M per season, and his age curve could put him at $20M value in his very peak prime years.

 

So $9M for Makar is money very well spent.

 

Quinn Hughes, at the moment (especially after last season), comes in significantly lower than Makar, by the analytics. And even by just basic stats, or just by the “eye test,” he’s just not considered to be in the same tier as Makar.

At least not right now. I’m still very bullish on Hughes and I think his 2019-20 season is closer to his real value (and that season, he was very close to Makar, and well within the highest tier of NHL Dmen).

 

But track record and proven performance is what really counts, and last season definitely set Hughes back and cooled off his value.

 

So now the Canucks have the benefit of using the Makar deal as a value cap.
 

There’s really no way for Hughes’s camp to argue in good faith that Hughes deserves more money than Makar. And the Canucks could argue that Hughes should be significantly lower, based on the side-by-side performance of Makar vs. Hughes, over the past two seasons.

 

Even with the overheated market and ridiculous deals we're seeing, I just don’t see Hughes getting pushed up into that $9M+ tier.

 

Maybe if Huggy’d had a great season in 2020-21, earned Norris consideration, and put himself in that very elite tier currently occupied by only a handful of other NHL Dmen, he’d be looking at some Makar level money. But fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on how you look at it), he just didn’t have that kind of season last year, and it cooled off his value, and likely brought his asking price down to something more reasonable (which is good news for the Canucks).

Well said.

 

Makar followed the Calder winning season with Norris runner-up season. Hughes didn't progress much at all from his Calder runner-up season, in fact one could easily argue that he took a step back as you said. There's no way Hughes' camp can ask for 9 or higher. 

 

I'd be happy with QH at 7 mil x 8 years though. We overpay him by1.5-2 mil for the first few seasons but that should be a bargain deal starting around year 4.

 

Would be great if we can lock up EP to 8.5 mil x 8 years too. We can use Makar as a comparable here actually. Makar won Calder, then became Norris level player. Petey won Calder. Definitely improved in his second season but nowhere near winning a major trophy like Hart or Selke.

 

These two deals would set the cap structure in place for a long time. Horvat, Boeser, Miller would all come in at reasonable numbers. And as the cap rises once we completely exit COVID, I believe we will be able to have enough space to add a key piece (or two) that can push us over the hump to the cup.

 

 

[khay]

d

3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

The funniest part about the Oilers defence is that both Barrie and Ceci were playing for Toronto at the same time and were their 2 RHD on the top 4 in 2019.  If it didn't work in Toronto and they got rid of both of them after only one year what makes Holland think it's going to work out better in Edmonton?

 

Holland has lost it.  Way past his prime.  Needs to retire and live the good life now...

Agree that Holland lost it. I mean, Nurse for 9.25 mil after one good season? 

 

But Oilers have a pretty good coach that knows how to play a structured game and places the guys in the right places so as to bring out their strengths while hiding their weaknesses.

 

Barrie's defensive lapses were a bit less obvious in Edmonton (at least in the games that I watched) compared to his days in Toronto while his strength on the PP and moving the puck was very evident.

 

Tippett may be able to use Ceci better in Edmonton than TO did.

 

[khay]

6 hours ago, DeNiro said:

I mean to be fair he plays huge minutes in all situations.

 

That being said there’s no way he’s in that category of defensemen. Jones and the Blackhawks really screwed up the market.

 

Who needs a salary cap structure though right?

Desperate Stanley Bowman, his time is running out in Chicago with almost all his moves turning into failures. He has Midas touch, except he turns gold into poops.

 

His daddy can't save him anymore and he is being exposed. He is the luckiest GM that inherited a filthy team and won 3 cups and got the job because of his HOF dad.

 

He did screw up the market for the defenceman. Luckily, QH is an RFA who can't even be offersheeted so he doesn't have much leverage. He can't be pointing to to be UFAs and say I want the same money.

 

[jbandalo]

Wow. Way overpaid. I literally LOL when I saw that contract for Nurse. 
 

$30 million in three players. What a joke. 

[rekker]

2 hours ago, D-Money said:

To be honest, Nurse was probably a top-10 D man last year. He was definitely better than Jones and Werenski. Once they got that money, it seemed inevitable that Nurse would get similar to stay in Edmonton.

 

But he doesn’t have the body of work that most of the top guys do. Will he keep it up? Or was last year an outlier?

 

But he only played six other teams last year and I can't say he was a standout in the playoffs either. I think Jones and Werenski have a better body of work. I can't help but laff at this contract and the AAV is brutal. 

[khay]

20 minutes ago, jbandalo said:

Wow. Way overpaid. I literally LOL when I saw that contract for Nurse. 
 

$30 million in three players. What a joke. 

They are following the Toronto model. First round exits.

 

The only bargain is Draisaitl. Imagine if he got paid like he deserved. 

 

[MikeyD]

I've watched most of this kid's games on the Oilers and anything over 7 is a pretty steep overpayment. He's had 2 good seasons in the nhl. Had an elite one with McDavid posting up insane numbers and his shooting percentage was thru the roof. The chances of him replicating last season are slim and he's still very mediocre defensively. 

[FlyLow_]

God damn it, we're boned.

[Millerdraft]

Remember when McDavid & Draisaitl (even more so) left money on the table to help management surround them with talent?  Yeah, Nurse just wolfed down the entire buffet spread.  Way to take less for the benefit of the team there Darnell!  
 

I wonder how this is sitting with Draisaitl?  How could Holland not be able to sell an $8.5m cap hit based on that internal structure?  Cut a few years off the term to allow Darnell to recoup some of the lost salary as an UFA at that point and have his deal expire with McDavid’s…

[grandmaster]

2 minutes ago, Millerdraft said:

Remember when McDavid & Draisaitl (even more so) left money on the table to help management surround them with talent?  Yeah, Nurse just wolfed down the entire buffet spread.  Way to take less for the benefit of the team there Darnell!  
 

I wonder how this is sitting with Draisaitl?  How could Holland not be able to sell an $8.5m cap hit based on that internal structure?  Cut a few years off the term to allow Darnell to recoup some of the lost salary as an UFA at that point and have his deal expire with McDavid’s…

Drai is gonna want to be paid next contract…no more discounts for the Coilers…

[Hairy Kneel]

Nurse cashed in on all his hype. 

 

[Jester13]

Someone get a doctor, because I think Holland just prematurely blew his wad of cash on the Nurse. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Jester13