(Rumour) Canucks Blackhawks at the draft

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

Just how negative do people think Garland's value is?... News in Nucks Nation is slow these days. Don't ingest it, people. Jesus.

[Coconuts]

6 minutes ago, stawns said:

It's funny how many people gloss right over this 

Yeah, I don't get it either. He's in full control of his destiny with a NMC, the only option that doesn't involve his agreement is buying him out and that doesn't make sense sooner than later. 

 

If people wanna play armchair GM that's chill, we all do it, but at least consider clauses. 

[Warhippy]

1 minute ago, Herberts Vasiljevs said:

Just how negative do people think Garland's value is?... News in Nucks Nation is slow these days. Don't ingest it, people. Jesus.

He's only rolling the world championship right now, .5 ppg pesky all around winger on an average contract.  But you know, a 1st to get some sucker team to pick him up should be enough to get him out the door

[wildwood12]

Trading our 11 th pick to Chicago is a repeat of the fleecing Jim Benning got from Arizona in OEL trade.

Arizona is still laughing.

[Ronaldoescobar]

Probably be something like 11th + Myers for 19th and 2nd rounder. Hopefully JR/PA are not that short sighted.  

[Gawdzukes]

8 minutes ago, Herberts Vasiljevs said:

Just how negative do people think Garland's value is?... News in Nucks Nation is slow these days. Don't ingest it, people. Jesus.

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Gawdzukes

[Elias Pettersson]

20 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

Maybe I'm crazy, but I feel like 11 is close to equal 19 + 2nd rounder--maybe just a bit unfavourable for us. Adding in an entire contract that's expensive like OEL seems like almost a 0% move. Myers is a lot more reasonable since he's just got one year left on his deal and is a bit cheaper, but even that might require some retention on our end.

You are not crazy. That is equal value according to the NHL draft value chart. It’s actually a little bit in our favour. 
 

11OA = 338.98 points

19OA = 237.96 points 

35OA = 116.07 points 

 

So 19OA + 35OA = 354.03 points. 
 

So if we are trading the 11OA for the 19OA + the 35OA it’s already a good trade for Vancouver. If Vancouver can add a couple of cap dumps to the deal to free up $9-10 million in cap space so we can sign Barbashev/Gavrikov it’s a home run trade and something we should seriously consider. It’s the least painful way of dumping contracts. 
 

Some are getting too emotional with the 11OA pick thinking we are going to lose out on a star player. But the previous drafts show that star players have also been picked with the 19OA pick.  Plus we get a 2nd shot at 35OA to get a really good player as well. 

https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/amp/

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[Kobayashi Maru]

If we look at it from the draft perspective it could end up being something like:

 

Nate Danielson (11) and Tyler Myers or Brock Boeser

 

for

 

Otto Stenberg/Calam Ritchie (19) and Oliver Bonk (35)

 

That likely works out for us pretty nicely given the cap flexibility

[D-Money]

10 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Yeah, I don't get it either. He's in full control of his destiny with a NMC, the only option that doesn't involve his agreement is buying him out and that doesn't make sense sooner than later. 

 

If people wanna play armchair GM that's chill, we all do it, but at least consider clauses. 

I’m still in favour of an OEL buyout - and this is coming from someone who appreciated his game in the first year here.
 

But I think he’s easily replaceable with the cap savings we’d get for the first 4 years (minimum $2.83M), and the extra savings in the first 2 years give us a lot of wiggle room. As for the last 4 years (with the $2.42M penalty) the cap is going up a lot, so those will be much easier to plan for and absorb.

[smithers joe]

56 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

Trading Miller for a young center and picks solves all their problems.

not all, but one big one. whether it is boeser, garland, beauvillier, myers, poolma imo peyeyn or others. witrh a good amount of cap space they can turn this team around with players that are more suited to the style they want to have. imo petey and kuzmenko need a more skilled dakota joshua on their line. someone like a burrows. JR said when he got here, that the team had the wrong mix. with no cap, this team will only get marginally better. we have too many of the same type. they are all too easy to play against.

[mll]

49 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

11OA - Kopitar, Forsberg

19OA - Vasilevskiy, Getzlaf

 

Is there much of a dropoff, if any, with these guys?  Sure, there are more hits at 11OA, but if you add that 35OA pick to the package then you have 2 shots to get an impact player.  

 

FYI, Sebastian Aho, the Carolina Aho, was picked 35OA...

Both picks will be in the same draft class.  Skews things to pick and choose the best players among the list - not every draft class has the same depth.  Would look year by year instead and see how often 19th overall turned out better or equal to 11th overall.  

 

2012 was Forsberg vs Vasilevskiy but 2005 was Kopitar vs Kindl which is less interesting.  

[Elias Pettersson]

1 minute ago, smithers joe said:

not all, but one big one. whether it is boeser, garland, beauvillier, myers, poolma imo peyeyn or others. witrh a good amount of cap space they can turn this team around with players that are more suited to the style they want to have. imo petey and kuzmenko need a more skilled dakota joshua on their line. someone like a burrows. JR said when he got here, that the team had the wrong mix. with no cap, this team will only get marginally better. we have too many of the same type. they are all too easy to play against.

Ivan Barbashev is the perfect player to play that Burrows role in the top 6...

[Elias Pettersson]

1 minute ago, mll said:

Both picks will be in the same draft class.  Skews things to pick and choose the best players among the list - not every draft class has the same depth.  Would look year by year instead and see how often 19th overall turned out better or equal to 11th overall.  

 

2012 was Forsberg vs Vasilevskiy but 2005 was Kopitar vs Kindl which is less interesting.  

This is true.  However, if you add the 35OA to the equation then you have 2 shots to get an NHL player.  There have been lots of 11OA players that have not even made the NHL.  Podkolzin was drafted 10OA in 2019 and still does not have a full time NHL job 4 years after being drafted.  

[Elias Pettersson]

25 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Having looked over the last 7 or 8 draft day threads.  This is kind of repeated quite frequently.  Deep draft, top 5 are can't miss.  Top 10 would be top 5 most years.

 

Kinda wondering if they intentionally make these claims just to drum up attention

The upcoming draft is always supposed to be the THE draft where you get the star player.  Happens every year.  It's all just a promotion and hype for the draft itself.  At the end of the day the guy we pick at 11OA may be a 3rd or 4th liner in the NHL, or never play in the NHL at all...

Edited May 24, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[smithers joe]

4 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Ivan Barbashev is the perfect player to play that Burrows role in the top 6...

we have no cap space for anyone until PA can move cap. i thought he was someone that could play 3c  for us?

[Gawdzukes]

10 minutes ago, D-Money said:

I’m still in favour of an OEL buyout - and this is coming from someone who appreciated his game in the first year here.
 

But I think he’s easily replaceable with the cap savings we’d get for the first 4 years (minimum $2.83M), and the extra savings in the first 2 years give us a lot of wiggle room. As for the last 4 years (with the $2.42M penalty) the cap is going up a lot, so those will be much easier to plan for and absorb.

The cap may go up but so does the price of contracts. It's just like inflation. If you get a modest raise every couple years you don't really have any more money but you can sure fool yourself into thinking you do.

[HKSR]

18 minutes ago, mll said:

Both picks will be in the same draft class.  Skews things to pick and choose the best players among the list - not every draft class has the same depth.  Would look year by year instead and see how often 19th overall turned out better or equal to 11th overall.  

 

2012 was Forsberg vs Vasilevskiy but 2005 was Kopitar vs Kindl which is less interesting.  

2011 - 11OA = Duncan Siemens, 19OA = Oscar Klefbom ... 19OA wins

2012 - 11OA = Filip Forsberg, 19OA = Andrei Vasilevskiy... pretty close, but I give the edge to Vasilevskiy ... 19OA wins

2013 - 11OA = Samuel Morin, 19OA = Kerby Rychel... tie.  Both suck.

2014 - 11OA = Kevin Fiala, 19OA = Tony Deangelo... 11OA wins

2015 - 11OA = Lawson Crouse, 19OA = Evgeny Svechnikov... 11OA wins

2016 - 11OA = Logan Brown, 19OA = Kiefer Bellows... tie

2017 - 11OA = Gabriel Vilardi, 19OA = Josh Norris... 19OA wins

2018 - 11OA = Oliver Wahlstrom, 19OA = Jay O'Brien... 11OA wins

 

Just stopping there cuz we can't tell how the more recent prospects are gonna turn out.

So that's 3 wins for 11OA, 3 wins for 19OA, and a couple ties.

 

Pretty equal IMO.

 

PS - in 2015, 35th OA turned out to be Sebastian Aho...

 

EDIT:  I also took a quick peak at 2008, 2009, and 2010, and I'd say 19OA wins in all 3 of those years.

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by HKSR

[Coconuts]

18 minutes ago, D-Money said:

I’m still in favour of an OEL buyout - and this is coming from someone who appreciated his game in the first year here.
 

But I think he’s easily replaceable with the cap savings we’d get for the first 4 years (minimum $2.83M), and the extra savings in the first 2 years give us a lot of wiggle room. As for the last 4 years (with the $2.42M penalty) the cap is going up a lot, so those will be much easier to plan for and absorb.

I'm just not keen on longer term dead cap, cap going up or not. But yeah, a buyout is a poison pill with that contract any way you spin it. I'd sooner try to keep him and see if he can be more serviceable with a better structured team and back end. 

[Coconuts]

10 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

The cap may go up but so does the price of contracts. It's just like inflation. If you get a modest raise every couple years you don't really have any more money but you can sure fool yourself into thinking you do.

Yup, the more cap available the more cap your top players are simply going to demand. You don't actually get cap flex with a rising cap, existing players just cost more. 

[Elias Pettersson]

8 minutes ago, mll said:

Both picks will be in the same draft class.  Skews things to pick and choose the best players among the list - not every draft class has the same depth.  Would look year by year instead and see how often 19th overall turned out better or equal to 11th overall.  

 

2012 was Forsberg vs Vasilevskiy but 2005 was Kopitar vs Kindl which is less interesting.  

2020:

 

11OA - Yaroslav Askarov

19OA - Braden Schneider

 

2017:

 

11OA - Gabriel Villardi

19OA - Josh Norris

 

2016:

 

11OA - Logan Brown

19OA - Kieffer Bellows

35OA - Jordan Kyrou

 

2015:

 

11OA - Lawson Crouse

19OA - Evgeny Svechnikov

35OA - Sebastian Aho

 

2009:

 

11OA - Ryan Ellis

19OA - Chris Kreider

 

2003:

 

11OA - Jeff Carter

19OA - Ryan Getzlaf

 

It doesn't happen very often, but it does happen on occasion where the 19OA pick turns out better than the 11OA pick.  Also, there have been some occasions where if you add the 35OA pick to the 19OA pick then the trade becomes lopsided in favour of the trade.  2015 and 2016 are 2 years in a row whereby if you had the 19OA + the 35OA picks you would have been way better off than if you had kept the 11OA pick...