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Elias Pettersson | #40 | C


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7 hours ago, -AJ- said:

You might be right, but I think based on skill alone, Hughes is the better player. Petey has more brand value though. The extra season of Pettersson might also be a difference maker.

For whatever reason, forwards make more coming off their ELC's. Look at recent examples of Provorov, McAvoy etc. Hughes also has less RFA rights/negotiation power than Pettersson.

 

As for Petey, his closest comparable is Aho who's on a longer deal than 3 years, is a better, more complete player and signed his contract via offer sheet and not during a pandemic. There's zero chance Petey ends up making more money on a shorter deal with all of that going on.

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On 10/27/2020 at 4:42 PM, khay said:

I agree with what you say, that we need to sign Petey at reasonable cap. But the cap was 64 mil back then and 8.7 m is 13.5% of the team's salary. 13.5% of 81 mil (current cap) is 11 mil. Crosby signed what was considered one of the largest contracts at the time. Also note that this was when long contracts (12 years) was allowed so Crosby was able to give the Pens a discount in return for stability (stability as in 12 years of guaranteed 8.7 mil income no matter what happened to his health). 

 

Considering that the cap is staying flat for the next few years and that EP is clearly a level below Crosby at the early stages of their respective careers, I think getting Petey at around 10% of the total cap hit of 8 mil per year seems like a good deal for the Canucks assuming that it's an 8 year deal. If it's a bridge deal, then it absolutely should be less than 8. More like 6-7 mil for 3 years.

 

there's no way he's signing a bridge deal for 6 million. 7 is probably your starting number. 

 

for a bridge, i think 7-8 million is probably good for Pettersson. 

 

long term deal, man, i'd sign him up for 10 million over 8 years. 

 

he's our franchise.

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1 hour ago, N4ZZY said:

there's no way he's signing a bridge deal for 6 million. 7 is probably your starting number. 

 

for a bridge, i think 7-8 million is probably good for Pettersson. 

 

long term deal, man, i'd sign him up for 10 million over 8 years. 

 

he's our franchise.

He's been amazing, but he's never even been above or at a point-per-game. You don't sign that for $10M. He needs to seriously step it up (95+ points territory) to earn close to that kind of money. 

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13 hours ago, -AJ- said:

He's been amazing, but he's never even been above or at a point-per-game. You don't sign that for $10M. He needs to seriously step it up (95+ points territory) to earn close to that kind of money. 

EP has been fantastic... But at the same time, he's been sheltered a lot from heavy matchups. It would be nice for him to prove that he can produce against the best night-in, night-out before we hand him a blank cheque.

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22 hours ago, -AJ- said:

He's been amazing, but he's never even been above or at a point-per-game. You don't sign that for $10M. He needs to seriously step it up (95+ points territory) to earn close to that kind of money. 

2019-20 Play-in/Play-offs ...............

 

GP:  17

Goals: 7

Assists: 11

Points: 18

FOW%: 49.4

Hits: 13

Blocks: 12

SoN: 38

 

Small sample size, I know, but that's against the toughest opposition he has yet faced in his young career

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Googlie said:

2019-20 Play-in/Play-offs ...............

 

GP:  17

Goals: 7

Assists: 11

Points: 18

FOW%: 49.4

Hits: 13

Blocks: 12

SoN: 38

 

Small sample size, I know, but that's against the toughest opposition he has yet faced in his young career

 

 

Yes, you're absolutely right. If these playoffs were any indication, Pettersson is ready to take the next step. All that's left is for him to do it in a larger sample size. I'm holding out hope that he could break out with 90+ points this year, based on his very strong playoff performance.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 10/28/2020 at 5:42 PM, khay said:

With the current economic situations, the team would be crazy to hand him 10+ mil x 8 year contract. If it were 8-8.5 mil x 8 years, then you sign him because the cap is staying the same and 8 - 8.5 mil is only about 10% -- a fair allocation for a star offensive producer on your team. If it's a shorter term deal like 3 years, he is looking at most 7. 

I think you are in the right ballpark for sure. I feel that the kind of character guys that Benning is trying to bring in (and Petey is certainly a character guy) are the kinds of guys who won't try to bleed the team dry to get very last bit of money, and as you say - he doesn't exactly have the best leverage.


I would prefer to sign him long term, since I don't feel there is too much risk involved with Petey. He has shown himself to be a consummate professional and despite being pretty light for his height, he has also shown himself to be surprisingly durable so far. As he gets bigger he will be even more so, and I also predict as he gets bigger and stronger it will have a marked positive impact on his stats as well on both sides of the ice. If there was any scenario in which to sign long-term, this is pretty much it, and it still gives him enough time for one more big, long-term contract after this one. Win-win.

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On 10/29/2020 at 12:25 PM, N4ZZY said:

there's no way he's signing a bridge deal for 6 million. 7 is probably your starting number. 

 

for a bridge, i think 7-8 million is probably good for Pettersson. 

 

long term deal, man, i'd sign him up for 10 million over 8 years. 

 

he's our franchise.

 

On 10/29/2020 at 2:03 PM, -AJ- said:

He's been amazing, but he's never even been above or at a point-per-game. You don't sign that for $10M. He needs to seriously step it up (95+ points territory) to earn close to that kind of money. 

I believe Petey is eligible to be offersheeted.  Any offer under $10,907,735 per season would only net compensation of 2 first round picks, 1 second round pick and 1 third round pick.  So I'm thinking that is the starting point for any longterm deal.  

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On 10/29/2020 at 2:03 PM, -AJ- said:

He's been amazing, but he's never even been above or at a point-per-game. You don't sign that for $10M. He needs to seriously step it up (95+ points territory) to earn close to that kind of money. 

When Eichel signed his 10m a year deal he was below a PPG and had zero playoff experience. When Matthews signed his deal he had finished 1 season at a PPG pace, and was 5 points over the year it was signed, as it was signed midseason. 

 

I'd say when you factor in playoff performance Pettersson is at minimum on par with these 2 guys relative to this point in their contracts. The fact is we're now in a world where you pay your upcoming stars for what they're going to do, not what they've done, and I don't think I'm out of line when I say unless something unforeseen happens, at his current trajectory Pettersson is on pace to be the best Canuck of all time when his career finishes. They're going to have to open up their wallets for Petey. The ONLY way I see something else happening is if he decides to take a lower pay hit for a couple years while waiting for revenue to spike back up from the COVID nightmare. 

 

Hughes on the otherhand I see signing a bridge deal. He can't be offersheeted and he stands to make more when the cap raises again.

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1 hour ago, Vanuckles said:

Also, I just went back and read the first 2 pages of this this thread... Comedic gold 

You got that right LOL. There are a few posters that are eating a lot of crow these days for their comments right after he was drafted. For all the CDC'ers and their Benning bashing.... he is a much better evaluator of the players in the draft than we could ever hope to be.

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2 hours ago, Kootenay Gold said:

You got that right LOL. There are a few posters that are eating a lot of crow these days for their comments right after he was drafted. For all the CDC'ers and their Benning bashing.... he is a much better evaluator of the players in the draft than we could ever hope to be.

You hit it on the head there. It's funny how we think that we know better sitting behind a computer screen than a whole department of experts who have been evaluating these players all year long. I'll be the first to admit I knew next to nothing about him at the time he was drafted, but I was willing to give him some time before firing management.

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On ‎11‎/‎16‎/‎2020 at 4:10 PM, Kootenay Gold said:

I too think he will be near a PPG but doubt very much if we see an 82 game schedule. I think it more likely that it will be 50 or so games at best.

80+ points in ~50 games :P

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