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Brock Botanen

Canucks or Wild?

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Who you rooting for to win this play in series?  

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, DontMessMe said:

What are the odds of going on a deep playoff run? Is it greater than or less than 12.5%, 

Depends how you define deep.  Chances of a finals appearance are 12.5% given a win over the Wild.  Realistically, the virus levels the playing field quite a lot as any team could get hit with an outbreak which could decimate their lineup.

Edited by King Heffy
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It's a win-win. If we win, we get valuable playoff experience. If we lose, we have a 12.5% chance of getting Lafreniere. 
Not going to vote either way. Would like to see us go on a run, and winning the cup. But, if we get Lafreniere we could potentially win multiple cups. Hard to say.
Will be cheering for the Canucks regardless.

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Posted (edited)

It is the Canucks we are talking about. Even if it were a 99% chance of getting the first pick, the league would find some way to make sure we lose out.

Edited by The Colt 45s
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I can't believe this is even a discussion.  Win and get as much experience as possible in preparation for an eventual Stanley Cup.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, DontMessMe said:

What are the odds of going on a deep playoff run? Is it greater than or less than 12.5%, 

Vegas odds:  Our favorite team:  the Vancouver Canucks   35-1 (24 teams before the 1st round, usually it's 16 teams)

                      The odds will change for most teams after this round before the 1st round.

 

Boston Bruins +650 13/2 7.5
Tampa Bay Lightning +650 13/2 7.5
Colorado Avalanche +800 8/1 9
Vegas Golden Knights +800 8/1 9.0
Washington Capitals +900 9/1 10.0
Philadelphia Flyers +1000 10/1 11.0
St. Louis Blues +1100 11/1 12.0
Dallas Stars +1500 15/1 16.0
Pittsburgh Penguins +1600 16/1 17.0
Edmonton Oilers +2300 23/1 24.0
Toronto Maple Leafs +2900 29/1 30.0
Calgary Flames +3500 35/1 36.0
Vancouver Canucks +3500 35/1 36.0
Nashville Predators +4000 40/1 41.0
Arizona Coyotes +4300 43/1 44.0
Carolina Hurricanes +4300 43/1 44.0
Minnesota Wild +4300 43/1 44.0
Edited by stanleysteamersmyl

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On 6/27/2020 at 12:08 AM, luckylager said:

Because the objective in sport is to win.

Not a single player on the Canucks will be playing to lose. They don't care that losing might help the team in future, they only know the glory of winning and the agony of defeat.

 

Go ahead and cheer for pipe dreams if that's what you want.

 

But I'll be cheering for the Canucks to win and will still be very disappointed if we lose to Minny. I won't be AS disappointed if we win the lotto, but I really don't see that happening.

 

 


The odds are just as good the whole thing unravels and then what happens to our chances with winning a playoff series ... and the odds at first go from 12.5% to zero just like that and we pick around 17.    
 

Since we are dealing in fantasy how’s that for one?   This is the best outcome we could have possibly hoped for given how our season was unraveling too at the time ... going from first to the very fringe in our division ... now we get the chance to play with a full lineup, with no cap restraints.    It’s a pandemic miracle that saved the season - and one of the few bright sides to it.    Heck yeah we should be fully behind the team to win as many games as they can...19 to be exact. 

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18 hours ago, King Heffy said:

Depends how you define deep.  Chances of a finals appearance are 12.5% given a win over the Wild.  Realistically, the virus levels the playing field quite a lot as any team could get hit with an outbreak which could decimate their lineup.

Since that’s a valid point what is the actual risk of Covid 19?   First the odds of contracting it, the odds of getting hospitalized, dying or just being asymptomatic .. based on the age of players too (say 27 average age).   It’s drastically different in a hub city like Vancouver compared to one in the US too.    To put it into perspective at the peak in NYC the Mircomort chart which tracks the odds of dying in things like skydiving, riding a motorcycle daily, going to war and pretty much any activity you can think of put it at 50 micromorts - 50 chances in a million.  Given the mortality rate you can track the chances of getting it in NYC at the time at 450 chances in a million...those are some pretty slim odds.   45 in 100,000, 4.5 in 10,000, .45 in 1000.    Imagine what those odds would be like in even TO?  Minuscule.    The players are all getting tested now, the 11 so far (most from Florida pretty much 8 were asymtopmatic and 3 had slight fevers and still didn’t feel sick).   
 

It’s a valid concern, but seems extremely unlikely in a place like Vancouver.   Or even TO where the cases have come almost entirely from three of 50 or so different districts for the past month or so.   The math doesn’t lie - the scary part is the virus seems to be going awol again especially in Florida, Texas and California..but still not as bad as NYC was at its worst (yet)...glad Ovi and crew went home, the league would be smart to name the Hub cities soon and get the teams playing in hot spots out  of there as quickly  as possible. 

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On 6/26/2020 at 10:34 PM, -AJ- said:

I find it absurd that anyone who called themselves a hockey fan and a fan of the Canucks could actually cheer for us to lose during that play-in. Clearly we have been outside of meaningful hockey for too long.

I want us to be a dynasty. Lafrenière with our young core is that possible dynasty. We beat the Wild and I'll root like heck for them in the playoffs. However Lafrenière > playoff experience (no cup)

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1 minute ago, Brock Botanen said:

I want us to be a dynasty. Lafrenière with our young core is that possible dynasty. We beat the Wild and I'll root like heck for them in the playoffs. However Lafrenière > playoff experience (no cup)

You misrepresent the dichotomy. It's not Lafreniere vs playoff experience. It's a 12.5% chance at Lafrieniere vs playoff experience. 87.5% chance we lose the lottery and NJ is guaranteed our next year's pick no matter how badly we do. In 7 out of 8 scenarios where we lose, nothing special happens and our team is just sad we lost and we get a mid-1st-round pick.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Brock Botanen said:

I want us to be a dynasty. Lafrenière with our young core is that possible dynasty. We beat the Wild and I'll root like heck for them in the playoffs. However Lafrenière > playoff experience (no cup)

Dynasties don’t happen by all of a sudden winning the cup. They happen with playoff failure first.

 

Our young guys need playoff experience now if they wanna be contenders later on. I’m not holding on hope for a small chance at a lotto pick over that.

 

Edited by DeNiro
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DeNiro said:

Dynasties don’t happen by all of a sudden winning the cup. They happen with playoff failure first.

 

Our young guys need playoff experience now if they wanna be contenders later on. I’m not holding on hope for a small chance at a lotto pick over that.

 

MTL couldn’t win despite a good core until Robinson arrived and got rid of the PHI flu starting with Shultz...NYI couldn’t win despite gaining immediate traction once Potvin was drafted and several cracks at it until the team was all in their mid even late primes (Potvin was 27 and Billy Smith 30 in 80-81)...EDM had to go through a still great MTL team (Messier vs Robinson) and of course lost to NYI the first time to the final - experience trumped talent,  ability and youth...

 

More recently Detroit’s last two cracks at it against PIT - and then a decade of losing by WSH vs PIT finally prevailed.   Really it’s hard to find many examples of a young core winning it all....look at the Detroit teams of the 90-2000’s, the older core needed to learn how to lose first (SJ playing the underdog in the mid-90’s despite some of the best regular seasons ever).     Sometimes winning teams have some new blood but it’s rare that’s the portion of the team carrying the mail - ANA cup an example - same with the “kid” line on the Oilers last cup...Perry, Getzlaf and Gelinas weren’t the same as Selanne, Pronger, Niedermayer(s), Messier, Anderson etc. 
 

Point is the more cracks at it now the better the team will be for it in the future.   As far as the best prospect in the world now goes ... well last year it was Hughes, before it the “next Lidstrom”...and if anyone’s noticed the recent draft re-dos going way back to the early 80’s now on NHL.com there are few slam dunks period.   Daigle was supposed to be the next Mario Lemieux...Yakupov scored more goals then anyone for a long time too...hype is hype - not always right though ... calculating all those variables I’d say sticking to the plan (meaningful playoff minutes) is way more important...we only have three more cracks at it before Horvat and Miller are up or traded right?

Edited by IBatch
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I'm going to let this play out.

 

i was on team tank last season as i wanted one last go at good high end prospects. but now im happy with the Canucks prospect pool and am confident in it moving forward. Its a crazy dilemma  Canucks are in with this insane draft out come. As a long time jaded Canuck fan i really don't see them winning the lottery....... So lets hope this young Canuck Team learns how to play solid playoff winning hockey.

 

drop the puck all ready.....Go Canucks Go

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Outcome 1

if season is cancelled we surrender the 17th pick to the New Jersey Devils.  I am ok with this outcome, since we don't have to worry about next years pick being high if all else fails.

 

Outcome2

If we lose to the Wild, we have a 12.5% chance at winning the lottery. If we lose, we draft anywhere from 9th to 14th if I am not mistaken with the odds of us drafting.  However with this outcome, it means next years pick has to go to New Jersey no matter what happens, so its a failure is not an option scenario..

 

Outcome3

If season continues, we beat the Wild we end up in the playoffs and we surrender the pick, this then reverts back to outcome 3, however this can be a huge stepping stone for our young guys, as they had a taste of playoff action against Minnesota and Colorado at this point.   For the players itself this experience is priceless.  

 

conclusion.  

This is a no brainer, if we look long run, outcome 2 with us winning the lottery is probably the best outcome, to happen, which requires use to lose to Minnesota and jump, and a 1 in 8 chance at a franchise alternating player.  

 

Whats at stake?

 

Alexis Lafreniere is a Left Winger from the QMJHL he will be the best CHL player since Connor Mcdavid.

 

Laf has 112 points in 52 games,

Connor had 120 in 47

 

Connor also had Alex DeBrincat and Strome on his team. Other high end prospects.

 

Laff doesnt.

 

Outcome 2 is the long shot, but I think Outcome 3 is probably what's best for the team with expierence points from playoff and giving up a later pick to New Jersey.

 

 

 

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On 6/26/2020 at 8:47 PM, stanleysteamersmyl said:

12.5% of winning, 87.5% chance of losing.  Better odds at the casino.  50% chance:  red or black, odd or even, high or low at the roulette table.

Better to go on a playoff run and surprise the naysayers.  

47.4% because of the 0 and 00 which are not included in those bets.

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12 minutes ago, Baggins said:

47.4% because of the 0 and 00 which are not included in those bets.

Good catch.  I forgot.  The casino wins if 0 or 00 comes up if you play the outside bets.

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