Sven Baertschi | LW

[BananaMash]

3 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Not only did Sven give us something to cheer for tonight, he also slid into 113th in all-time Canuck scoring.

 

112.  Gregg Boddy	D	273	23	44	67
113.  Sven Baertschi	LW	138	35	30	65
114.  Murray Craven	C	88	15	50	65
115.  Adrien Plavsic	D	182	13	52	65

Sven is officially a better NHLer than Murray Craven 100% confirmed.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

So basically what we knew already. Baer is done for the season. 

 

And Willie D saying what the Canucks have said on every injury this season: he doesn't think it will require surgery.

 

We've seen how many of those early assessments have played out (see: Dorsett, Rödin, Gudbranson, Granlund, Gaunce, etc). Hopefully this time around, the player responds to treatment and heals fine without surgery.

 

Hate to see Baertschi wait a month or two and then end up having needed surgery, but having delayed the procedure a significant time. And thereby cutting short his offseason training, when an earlier intervention make have given him a better recovery timeline and training start date.

 

I wouldn't even be making this comment if we didn't have the previous examples of several players initially "not needing surgery" but then not responding to treatment and later having scans and examinations that confirmed they needed surgery (only now weeks or months after the injury happened).

[-DLC-]

My new favourite player...just love how he plays the game.  Hope this isn't anything too serious....happy he'll have plenty of time to heal.

[Gaudette Celly]

3 hours ago, debluvscanucks said:

My new favourite player...just love how he plays the game.  Hope this isn't anything too serious....happy he'll have plenty of time to heal.

Ah, that didn't take so long!

[Honky Cat]

I'm sure he would have hit 20 if he had been healthy..Hopefully,he kicks it up another notch next season.

[N4ZZY]

7 hours ago, Honky Cat said:

I'm sure he would have hit 20 if he had been healthy..Hopefully,he kicks it up another notch next season.

i think he will do much better than this season. 

for some reasons, i believe in sven. he's a good player, who seems to be a late bloomer. 

i think he takes it up another notch next season. 

 

[Boudrias]

10 hours ago, N4ZZY said:

i think he will do much better than this season. 

for some reasons, i believe in sven. he's a good player, who seems to be a late bloomer. 

i think he takes it up another notch next season. 

 

Baer had a pretty decent year other than some injuries. A lot more confidence and a lot more physical. It gets him into scoring positions. All that said I still don't know where he will fit long term. On a CUP contender I suspect a 3LW but has potential of a 2LW. His long term challenge is likely not his scoring ability but a physical one.

[KKnight]

Am i the only one that sees Baertschi as a second line tweener? Hes got great skill, but i just dont see him taking that next step. Personally i would be looking to upgrade LW in the offseason. Bring some physicality to our top 6. Landeskog, would be a guy of interest. I know hes coming off a bit of a down year, but for the duration of his career he has been more than consistent. 

 

Obvs this is neglecting what it might take to get him. 

 

Hutton + Baertschi might get them talking. But who knows. 

[JamesB]

20 minutes ago, kloubek said:

I'm one of the ones who didn't see a lot of value in Granlund, so my opinion isn't worth much....

 

But regardless, my concern with Baertschi is lack of progression in his game.

 

I know there are other elements to consider like offensive zone starts, etc - but I took a look at his stats.  I considered the amount of games played in a season and extrapolated it to 82 games from 2012 to 2017.  I then took his amount of  time on ice per game, then adjusted his points to consider same amount of time on ice per game of 15 minutes.  That gives us his average production level over the 5 year span if he were to play 15 minutes a game, and 82 games per year.  This is what I found:

 

2012-2013: 

47 points

2013:2014: 

35 points
 

2014-2015:

43 points
 

2015-2016: 

37 points
 

2016-2017: 

39 points

I do think he is a legit 2nd liner, but besides perhaps being a bit more defensively responsible, he really hasn't developed any since he has been in the NHL since his arrival. In fact, his rookie year was by far his best considering the amount he played.

 

I'd expect his average will probably be about 40-41 points per 15 minutes this coming season - so given the likelihood of an increased role to about 17 minutes a game, that alone would have him end up with around 46 points overall this season.  That's a slight improvement in ability ability/chemistry, but more likely to do with increased ice time.  Add in the fact that he will likely have an even better Horvat and maybe a better-scoring right winger on his line in Boeser, I'd say it will probably be closer to 50-52 points total if he plays the full 82 games.  That actually IS good enough for low-end 1st line scoring statistically.  But at the end of the day, any team needs more out of their 1st line than that and I think he has been and will continue to appear better than he really is playing with Horvat and perhaps at some point Boeser.

 

In summary, I feel he hasn't really shown an ability to improve much beyond his raw skill, which translates to a low-end 1st liner, or an elite 2nd liner with little upside beyond that.  Nothing to scoff at, really... especially considering what we paid to acquire him, but I also believe the risk of trading him now is relatively low for us since I believe what you see is what you get.  

The above post appeared in the Granlund thread but it really belongs in the Baertschi thread, so I am responding to it here.

 

Thanks to @kloubek for going to the effort of making these calculations. And they are helpful. But I would add a couple of footnotes.

 

1. Small sample. The 2012-13 number is based on a small sample (20 games). The 2014-15 number is also a small sample number (18 games). The numbers still mean something but there is probably a pretty wide "confidence interval" around them. In other words, if he had actually played 15 minutes a game for 82 games in 2012-13 a reasonable range of estimates for his scoring is probably pretty wide and probably 47 pts is at the high end of it. It is more likely that he would have been somewhere in the 30s (regression to the mean).

 

2. Quality of competition. There is no good way of adjusting for quality of competition and it is a big factor. In 2012-13 he was playing protected minutes and rarely faced tough competition. In the second half of last year, the Horvat line was usually up against the other team's top defensive pairing. That makes a big difference. And his defensive game has improved. He no longer has to be "protected" in terms of defensive responsibilities.

 

Still, I think the conclusion is correct, even a bit generous. At age 24 last year he should have been in his "early peak" -- pretty close to his overall peak performance level. He might improve a bit this year in intrinsic ability and, as @kloubek says, with an improving Horvat and a "sniper" like Boeser on RW, his point total should go up, maybe to close to 50 pts for an 82 game season. That still makes him just a good second liner, not a legitimate first liner on a good team or even an elite second liner.

 

So I see Baertschi as a legitimate top 6 forward, and that is good -- certainly a good return for the second round pick the Canucks traded for him. And the Canucks have been lacking in that category (legitimate top 6 forwards) for the last couple of years.

 

I see Horvat as an excellent 2C and Baertschi as a good 2RW. Together they are the core of a very good second line. But the Canucks are still looking for the elusive legitimate first liners that are the foundation of a contending team. Maybe Boeser is one. Maybe Pettersson, maybe Dahlen, or maybe someone else in the system takes a surprisingly big step forward. 

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, JamesB said:

The above post appeared in the Granlund thread but it really belongs in the Baertschi thread, so I am responding to it here.

 

Thanks to @kloubek for going to the effort of making these calculations. And they are helpful. But I would add a couple of footnotes.

 

1. Small sample. The 2012-13 number is based on a small sample (20 games). The 2014-15 number is also a small sample number (18 games). The numbers still mean something but there is probably a pretty wide "confidence interval" around them. In other words, if he had actually played 15 minutes a game for 82 games in 2012-13 a reasonable range of estimates for his scoring is probably pretty wide and probably 47 pts is at the high end of it. It is more likely that he would have been somewhere in the 30s (regression to the mean).

 

2. Quality of competition. There is no good way of adjusting for quality of competition and it is a big factor. In 2012-13 he was playing protected minutes and rarely faced tough competition. In the second half of last year, the Horvat line was usually up against the other team's top defensive pairing. That makes a big difference. And his defensive game has improved. He no longer has to be "protected" in terms of defensive responsibilities.

 

Still, I think the conclusion is correct, even a bit generous. At age 24 last year he should have been in his "early peak" -- pretty close to his overall peak performance level. He might improve a bit this year in intrinsic ability and, as @kloubek says, with an improving Horvat and a "sniper" like Boeser on RW, his point total should go up, maybe to close to 50 pts for an 82 game season. That still makes him just a good second liner, not a legitimate first liner on a good team or even an elite second liner.

 

So I see Baertschi as a legitimate top 6 forward, and that is good -- certainly a good return for the second round pick the Canucks traded for him. And the Canucks have been lacking in that category (legitimate top 6 forwards) for the last couple of years.

 

I see Horvat as an excellent 2C and Baertschi as a good 2RW. Together they are the core of a very good second line. But the Canucks are still looking for the elusive legitimate first liners that are the foundation of a contending team. Maybe Boeser is one. Maybe Pettersson, maybe Dahlen, or maybe someone else in the system takes a surprisingly big step forward. 

You can extrapolate stats all you like, but in actual fact Sven has 28 and 35 points.  He's coming 25, and is in his prime now.  I don't expect some magical leap in his game.  

[RWMc1]

I think Granlund is going to have a good season for us. I liked his attention to detail on both sides of the play last year and think he will continue to play a solid two-way game.

[-AJ-]

8 hours ago, JamesB said:

 

Still, I think the conclusion is correct, even a bit generous. At age 24 last year he should have been in his "early peak" -- pretty close to his overall peak performance level. He might improve a bit this year in intrinsic ability and, as @kloubek says, with an improving Horvat and a "sniper" like Boeser on RW, his point total should go up, maybe to close to 50 pts for an 82 game season. That still makes him just a good second liner, not a legitimate first liner on a good team or even an elite second liner.

Far as I can tell, 50 points is the bottom of top line forwards in today's NHL. 90th-94th in the NHL forwards in point scoring all scored exactly 50 points. 30 teams x three 1st line forwards per team means that technically speaking, there are 90 1st line NHL forwards. I would argue that Baertschi is on the edge of 1st line and 2nd line player. Currently he's more of a solid 2nd line guy and nothing more, but if he can push it to 50 points, the argument could be made for him as a premier 2nd line forward, unless the standard for offense changes in the coming years.

 

That said, if he's doing it with Horvat and a potentially dynamic shooter in Boeser, his numbers could be inflated by them, much like Burrows had his inflated. It does get hard to individually measure a player independent of his line mates.

 

If Boeser does turn out to be a dynamic scoring forward like we hope and plays with Bo and Baertschi, Baertschi will very likely be the weakest link on the line, but I think he'll be able to support those two pretty well. In my dream world, we have two top lines that are both capable of dominated now and then, ideally with Pettersson on the other line.

[Rob_Zepp]

On ‎8‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 7:27 PM, -AJ- said:

Far as I can tell, 50 points is the bottom of top line forwards in today's NHL. 90th-94th in the NHL forwards in point scoring all scored exactly 50 points. 30 teams x three 1st line forwards per team means that technically speaking, there are 90 1st line NHL forwards. I would argue that Baertschi is on the edge of 1st line and 2nd line player. Currently he's more of a solid 2nd line guy and nothing more, but if he can push it to 50 points, the argument could be made for him as a premier 2nd line forward, unless the standard for offense changes in the coming years.

 

That said, if he's doing it with Horvat and a potentially dynamic shooter in Boeser, his numbers could be inflated by them, much like Burrows had his inflated. It does get hard to individually measure a player independent of his line mates.

 

If Boeser does turn out to be a dynamic scoring forward like we hope and plays with Bo and Baertschi, Baertschi will very likely be the weakest link on the line, but I think he'll be able to support those two pretty well. In my dream world, we have two top lines that are both capable of dominated now and then, ideally with Pettersson on the other line.

While true, it gets very bunched with 50th place of all forwards was 57 points and 30th place was 62 points.   Given Canucks are currently a very low scoring team, to have 50 points could have you getting up to 65 or more on a better team - just compare, for example, Horvat with Draisaitl - swap their powerplay points and Horvat gets 69 points and Draisaitl gets 60 points.   Don't tell me that has nothing to do with caliber of team/linemates.  

[Alflives]

8 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

While true, it gets very bunched with 50th place of all forwards was 57 points and 30th place was 62 points.   Given Canucks are currently a very low scoring team, to have 50 points could have you getting up to 65 or more on a better team - just compare, for example, Horvat with Draisaitl - swap their powerplay points and Horvat gets 69 points and Draisaitl gets 60 points.   Don't tell me that has nothing to do with caliber of team/linemates.  

And opportunity.  I don't think Draisatl's coach said he was a fourth line checker, and started him that role to begin the season.  

[Rob_Zepp]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

And opportunity.  I don't think Draisatl's coach said he was a fourth line checker, and started him that role to begin the season.  

agreed.

[Crabcakes]

On 8/18/2017 at 7:27 PM, -AJ- said:

Far as I can tell, 50 points is the bottom of top line forwards in today's NHL. 90th-94th in the NHL forwards in point scoring all scored exactly 50 points. 30 teams x three 1st line forwards per team means that technically speaking, there are 90 1st line NHL forwards. I would argue that Baertschi is on the edge of 1st line and 2nd line player. Currently he's more of a solid 2nd line guy and nothing more, but if he can push it to 50 points, the argument could be made for him as a premier 2nd line forward, unless the standard for offense changes in the coming years.

 

That said, if he's doing it with Horvat and a potentially dynamic shooter in Boeser, his numbers could be inflated by them, much like Burrows had his inflated. It does get hard to individually measure a player independent of his line mates.

 

If Boeser does turn out to be a dynamic scoring forward like we hope and plays with Bo and Baertschi, Baertschi will very likely be the weakest link on the line, but I think he'll be able to support those two pretty well. In my dream world, we have two top lines that are both capable of dominated now and then, ideally with Pettersson on the other line.

Centre's score more on average than wingers.  The top 30 and ties scored 55 points last year.  Horvat at 52 puts him at 40th, in the top half of 2C's already.

 

The top 90 and ties scored 50 last year as you say.  That is skewed by centres since my source, NHL.com won't separate wingers only.  Baertschi at 35 last year puts him at tied for 160th which is the lower end of the 2nd line (top 180).

 

I totally agree that all the players on a line help to contribute to the others success.  Also, a bona fide top line (which the Canucks lack at the moment) with a true 1C etc, takes the pressure off the 2nd line.  All players benefit from being with other top players even if they're on other lines.  A first line benefits from an effective second line.

 

As depth improves, and final pieces are added to a line up, especially in the top 6, we will see a rapid improvement in team performance.  Just as the addition of McDavid led to a rapid rise for the Oilers and same goes for the Leafs with Matthews.

 

As a finesse, play making winger, Baertschi will benefit from playing with a power-type forward like Horvat and a high IQ finisher like Boeser.  It goes without saying that Horvat and Boeser would also benefit from a player who can find them in seams.

[mll]

On 8/21/2017 at 5:12 AM, Crabcakes said:

Centre's score more on average than wingers.  The top 30 and ties scored 55 points last year.  Horvat at 52 puts him at 40th, in the top half of 2C's already.

 

The top 90 and ties scored 50 last year as you say.  That is skewed by centres since my source, NHL.com won't separate wingers only.  Baertschi at 35 last year puts him at tied for 160th which is the lower end of the 2nd line (top 180).

 

I totally agree that all the players on a line help to contribute to the others success.  Also, a bona fide top line (which the Canucks lack at the moment) with a true 1C etc, takes the pressure off the 2nd line.  All players benefit from being with other top players even if they're on other lines.  A first line benefits from an effective second line.

 

As depth improves, and final pieces are added to a line up, especially in the top 6, we will see a rapid improvement in team performance.  Just as the addition of McDavid led to a rapid rise for the Oilers and same goes for the Leafs with Matthews.

 

As a finesse, play making winger, Baertschi will benefit from playing with a power-type forward like Horvat and a high IQ finisher like Boeser.  It goes without saying that Horvat and Boeser would also benefit from a player who can find them in seams.

Some players did not play a full season and P/GP is probably fairer to rank players but small sample size messes the rankings.  The NHL allows to put a minimum of games played.  

 

I would actually only look at 5v5 because special teams, OT, extra attacker etc is not really line dependent.  The NHL doesn't track that though - they only have EV but it includes OT, extra attacker, empty nets etc.  

 

The Canucks had a terrible PP and Baer did not often play in special situations.  At 5v5 Baer and Horvat are actually just about tied in P/GP and P60 - just around 90ish for players with a minimum of 750min.  They lead the team in those metrics at 5v5.  Daniel has as many 5v5 points as Baer (28) but not the same amount of games or minutes - about 270min more.  Henrik is at 31 and Horvat at 34.  

 

I don't think it's a given that Baer and Horvat will be on the same line.  It's a different dynamic than how Green played Baer in Portland/Utica.  There are now more options to define the lines.  This season should allow to get a better read on the different players.

 

Edited August 22, 2017 by mll

[Rob_Zepp]

For a guy that was a scoring sensation in junior (including having 2 point per game pace playing for his present NHL coach), was a top half first round pick and who also lit up the AHL AND was a standout for his first few NHL games before being totally mishandled by his previous club - this player with just two full NHL seasons under his belt sure ends up in a lot of trade proposals and is generally dismissed as a top line forward.

 

He scores in dirty areas.   He is very fast.   He is tough on the puck.   He makes good passes.   He loves dogs (ok, I threw that in as it is important maybe just to me).   He is just entering his third full NHL season and is looking in preseason like he indeed has taken another step.

 

I don't think Vancouver Canuck fans have seen this guy's ceiling  yet and I see no reason why it cannot be quite high.  

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

For a guy that was a scoring sensation in junior (including having 2 point per game pace playing for his present NHL coach), was a top half first round pick and who also lit up the AHL AND was a standout for his first few NHL games before being totally mishandled by his previous club - this player with just two full NHL seasons under his belt sure ends up in a lot of trade proposals and is generally dismissed as a top line forward.

 

He scores in dirty areas.   He is very fast.   He is tough on the puck.   He makes good passes.   He loves dogs (ok, I threw that in as it is important maybe just to me).   He is just entering his third full NHL season and is looking in preseason like he indeed has taken another step.

 

I don't think Vancouver Canuck fans have seen this guy's ceiling  yet and I see no reason why it cannot be quite high.  

Considering his age, will he part of the next core?  

[Honky Cat]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Considering his age, will he part of the next core?  

Turns 25 next week...The guys a late bloomer ,so I see no reason why he can't be part of the new core of players...The whole 'soft player',' 2nd-3rd line tweener' talk can now be put to rest..From what I've seen so far this pre season is a lot of battle on the boards and in front of the net.....Also, 3 goals in 3 games..Its only pre season but it looks like he should be flying out of the gate this season.