Elias Pettersson | #40 | C

[48MPHSlapShot]

2 hours ago, Odd. said:

I would say the KHL and the AHL are by far better leagues. 

According to thehockeywriters.com, the SEL a considerably higher level league than the AHL.

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/top-10-best-ice-hockey-leagues/

 

Gabriel Desjardin's NHLE calculator or "League Equivalency formula" seems to back that up.

 

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

 

The SEL seems to be just behind the KHL, making it the third highest level league in the world.

 

 

[Diamonds]

3 hours ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

According to thehockeywriters.com, the SEL a considerably higher level league than the AHL.

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/top-10-best-ice-hockey-leagues/

 

Gabriel Desjardin's NHLE calculator or "League Equivalency formula" seems to back that up.

 

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

 

The SEL seems to be just behind the KHL, making it the third highest level league in the world.

 

 

I think that NHLe site needs a bit of an update. The Russian league they use is the Russian Elite League (rather than the KHL) which hasn't existed since 2008...

 

Rob Vollman released an updated version in 2015. The order is still roughly the same (NHL>KHL>SHL>AHL) but the values have changed a little bit.

 

http://www.hockeyabstract.com/thoughts/updatedtranslationfactors

 

Just thought I'd add in case anyone was looking for a more recently updated NHLe.

 

Edit: This one is even better 

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/06/01/re-approaching-the-methodology-of-nhle/

It gives Rob's 2017 calculations and also shows the Wilson Method.

Edited August 27, 2017 by Diamonds

[DinoTambo]

6 hours ago, Odd. said:

I would say the KHL and the AHL are by far better leagues. 

Ummmmm no. The SEL is superior to the AHL, and the KHL is like a casual Rec league. 

[Odd.]

2 hours ago, Diamonds said:

I think that NHLe site needs a bit of an update. The Russian league they use is the Russian Elite League (rather than the KHL) which hasn't existed since 2008...

 

Rob Vollman released an updated version in 2015. The order is still roughly the same (NHL>KHL>SHL>AHL) but the values have changed a little bit.

 

http://www.hockeyabstract.com/thoughts/updatedtranslationfactors

 

Just thought I'd add in case anyone was looking for a more recently updated NHLe.

 

Edit: This one is even better 

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/06/01/re-approaching-the-methodology-of-nhle/

It gives Rob's 2017 calculations and also shows the Wilson Method.

Analytically, I guess. But you have to also include other factors such as arena size, playing styles (NA vs Euro), (speed, skill, grit vs a lot more speed, skill), international rules, etc.

The fact that the AHL is a development league for NHL teams, It's quite hard to compare the two leagues because of this. AHL consists of NHL's teams best prospects and have the best professionals and trainers monitoring them. Out of all leagues, the AHL is best reconcilable with the NHL in terms of playing style, arena size, and rules. The SHL on the other hand is a competitive league of its own with its own set of rules, divisions and features relegations as well as its own unique playing style. Higher production is due to the players and coaches being more offensive minded, players generally being a little shorter and skinnier, and with the large ice, their game has to involve speed and skill which is why that country has a knack for developing offensively gifted players. Grit and fighting has no part in their game. many young Swedish players absolutely dominate their league but when they come to NA, they struggle mightily. 

 

If an SHL team played an AHL game against an AHL team with NA ice and NA set of rules, they would get absolutely hammered, out muscled, out worked, and wouldn't be able to keep up with the intensity, the same level of intensity needed to play in the NHL only 2 times more. Sure they have more offensively gifted players, but they wouldn't have the same amount of space that is needed for their playing style to work.

 

The KHL and the AHL is more balanced of a league with offense, defense, grit/physicality, tenacity, and as well fighting a huge part of their games. SHL consists of better offensively minded players with excellent speed and skill, but defense, grit and tenacity is a lot to be desired. There's a reason why most europeans who want to play in the NHL first have to develop sometime in the AHL to get adjusted to the NA game. Pettersson will eventually go through that route as well, just like any other player from overseas. 

 

When I said the AHL is a better league than the SHL, I didn't exactly take account to the analytic side of things, but rather the comparability between it and the NHL. Otherwise, comparing the AHL to the SHL is like comparing apples to oranges, can't exactly compare the two leagues. 

[48MPHSlapShot]

8 hours ago, Diamonds said:

I think that NHLe site needs a bit of an update. The Russian league they use is the Russian Elite League (rather than the KHL) which hasn't existed since 2008...

 

Rob Vollman released an updated version in 2015. The order is still roughly the same (NHL>KHL>SHL>AHL) but the values have changed a little bit.

 

http://www.hockeyabstract.com/thoughts/updatedtranslationfactors

 

Just thought I'd add in case anyone was looking for a more recently updated NHLe.

 

Edit: This one is even better 

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/06/01/re-approaching-the-methodology-of-nhle/

It gives Rob's 2017 calculations and also shows the Wilson Method.

Thanks for the updated versions.

 

They seem to sync up pretty well with the general perception today, including the rise in level of play at the collegiate level.

Edited August 27, 2017 by 48MPHSlapShot

[Boudrias]

5 hours ago, Odd. said:

Analytically, I guess. But you have to also include other factors such as arena size, playing styles (NA vs Euro), (speed, skill, grit vs a lot more speed, skill), international rules, etc.

The fact that the AHL is a development league for NHL teams, It's quite hard to compare the two leagues because of this. AHL consists of NHL's teams best prospects and have the best professionals and trainers monitoring them. Out of all leagues, the AHL is best reconcilable with the NHL in terms of playing style, arena size, and rules. The SHL on the other hand is a competitive league of its own with its own set of rules, divisions and features relegations as well as its own unique playing style. Higher production is due to the players and coaches being more offensive minded, players generally being a little shorter and skinnier, and with the large ice, their game has to involve speed and skill which is why that country has a knack for developing offensively gifted players. Grit and fighting has no part in their game. many young Swedish players absolutely dominate their league but when they come to NA, they struggle mightily. 

 

If an SHL team played an AHL game against an AHL team with NA ice and NA set of rules, they would get absolutely hammered, out muscled, out worked, and wouldn't be able to keep up with the intensity, the same level of intensity needed to play in the NHL only 2 times more. Sure they have more offensively gifted players, but they wouldn't have the same amount of space that is needed for their playing style to work.

 

The KHL and the AHL is more balanced of a league with offense, defense, grit/physicality, tenacity, and as well fighting a huge part of their games. SHL consists of better offensively minded players with excellent speed and skill, but defense, grit and tenacity is a lot to be desired. There's a reason why most europeans who want to play in the NHL first have to develop sometime in the AHL to get adjusted to the NA game. Pettersson will eventually go through that route as well, just like any other player from overseas. 

 

When I said the AHL is a better league than the SHL, I didn't exactly take account to the analytic side of things, but rather the comparability between it and the NHL. Otherwise, comparing the AHL to the SHL is like comparing apples to oranges, can't exactly compare the two leagues. 

Nice summary.

I consider the AHL as the #2 league based on graduates to the best league in hockey, the NHL. The simplist yardstick is measuring the number of players in a league and how many have gone on to play games in the NHL. The Euro leagues are not that great. To a degree I downgrade the KHL below the AHL for that reason but also based on testimonials from former NHL players who have played in the KHL. They are pretty uniform in their comments that the KHL's physical play is muted, defensive play is poor and effort can be questioned. Comments are also made that the majority of KHL franchises would find AHL teams strong competition.  

[48MPHSlapShot]

There is certainly a distinction between the level of a play in a particular league and the style of play. The AHL undoubtedly has a more similar style of play to the NHL than the SEL or the KHL, but that certainly doesn't mean that the AHL is a comparatively better league, and the analytical side of things seems to back that up.

 

The individual CHL leagues would probably be comparatively closer in style of play to the NHL than the KHL or SHL, but I certainly don't think I could make the argument that any of those leagues are "better" than the top two European leagues.

[theo5789]

5 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Nice summary.

I consider the AHL as the #2 league based on graduates to the best league in hockey, the NHL. The simplist yardstick is measuring the number of players in a league and how many have gone on to play games in the NHL. The Euro leagues are not that great. To a degree I downgrade the KHL below the AHL for that reason but also based on testimonials from former NHL players who have played in the KHL. They are pretty uniform in their comments that the KHL's physical play is muted, defensive play is poor and effort can be questioned. Comments are also made that the majority of KHL franchises would find AHL teams strong competition.  

This is hard to really determine. The KHL and SEL and other Euro teams could have players that could easily make NHL rosters (look at the impact someone like Panarin can make), but for reasons like family or whatever, they stay in their respective countries (see Tryamkin). There are also contract restrictions like Jasek had to keep him in the Czech League, so there are many factors why sometimes good players in Europe cannot come over so easily. AHL has more graduates simply because most of those players are draft picks of signing of the NHL clubs so it is easier for them to bring up those players because of the affiliation. So yes you could say the AHL has more players that play in the NHL, but how many players in those other leagues could play in the NHL?

 

It would be interesting to send top teams in the AHL vs those teams in Europe in some sort of champions league type style of tournament.

[Derp...]

Pettersson would need to score 0.68 points per game in the SHL to match his NHLe projection from last year in the Allsvenskan using this.

 

I don't think it's that accurate historically speaking for the top of the draft.

 

Most u20 players to score over 0.68 of note are really good NHLers 50-100+ points per seasons, yet this would predict him to score like 40 points a season. There's only been 6 u20 seasons since 2006 that had a player score 0.68 or more in the SHL.

Work needs to be done on this.

 

[Boudrias]

3 hours ago, theo5789 said:

This is hard to really determine. The KHL and SEL and other Euro teams could have players that could easily make NHL rosters (look at the impact someone like Panarin can make), but for reasons like family or whatever, they stay in their respective countries (see Tryamkin). There are also contract restrictions like Jasek had to keep him in the Czech League, so there are many factors why sometimes good players in Europe cannot come over so easily. AHL has more graduates simply because most of those players are draft picks of signing of the NHL clubs so it is easier for them to bring up those players because of the affiliation. So yes you could say the AHL has more players that play in the NHL, but how many players in those other leagues could play in the NHL?

 

It would be interesting to send top teams in the AHL vs those teams in Europe in some sort of champions league type style of tournament.

No doubt there are players who might make the NHL but decide to stay home. All I can do is look at relative numbers. I also go by what players who have played in the NHL say about the Euro leagues. Even something as simple as the Spengler Cup says something as Team Canada with essentially washed out NHLer's and wannabees dominate most years.  

[Rob_Zepp]

6 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

No doubt there are players who might make the NHL but decide to stay home. All I can do is look at relative numbers. I also go by what players who have played in the NHL say about the Euro leagues. Even something as simple as the Spengler Cup says something as Team Canada with essentially washed out NHLer's and wannabees dominate most years.  

They do not "dominate" and those are against club teams, not all-star or otherwise line-ups.   Come to Europe sometime and watch games in Sweden or Germany and I think you would change your mind.   The pace is fast, the skill is high and the talent is "right there" in terms of best leagues in the world.   Of course it isn't the NHL but I would give either German or Swedish league champions a decent shot as an NHL team that would not get blown out of the water.

[Lakers]

I've followed NHL, SHL, KHL, NLA, SM-Liiga and AHL for several years. Its really hard to compare tbh. I'd say its more like this:

 

 NHL - (Obviously, duh)

KHL/SHL
 - KHL has some teams that would do pretty good in the NHL, no doubt about that. They have players that would dominate just as much in NHL as they do in KHL.
  However, KHL has many teams that would get beaten quite easily by many SHL-teams. The gap in KHL is pretty crazy, theres no silver lining when it comes to standards and they dont play as good defensive hockey as a team from SHL. 

SM-Liiga/Extra Liga/NLA
-A lot looser on the defensive aspect, it's more rock n' roll all in all. These leagues has got some great teams, teams that would do fine in KHL/SHL. Teams like Liberec, Sparta Prague, HIFK, Tappara, Berne, Zug, Davos and so on. But, just like KHL, all of these leagues has got some really $&!#ty teams too. Teams that would be so destroyed if they played vs a top team from SHL or KHL. We're talking 10-0 without a doubt.

 

All in all I would say that AHL has got some standards, but its so different from the European style of hockey. Someone wrote that "an AHL team would beat any Swedish team on a smaller rink" and I'm not too sure about that, I'd say it depends. If it was one of the top 5 teams, I'd say: No chance in hell. 

 

Btw, this list gets updated every year. This is the official list for European Hockey Rankings (make sure that you change season to 2016/17)

 

[Alflives]

22 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

They do not "dominate" and those are against club teams, not all-star or otherwise line-ups.   Come to Europe sometime and watch games in Sweden or Germany and I think you would change your mind.   The pace is fast, the skill is high and the talent is "right there" in terms of best leagues in the world.   Of course it isn't the NHL but I would give either German or Swedish league champions a decent shot as an NHL team that would not get blown out of the water.

For Pettersson's development it's best he's playing in Sweden.  He's with men, on larger ice, and in a very skilled league.  (In a 7 game playoff atmosphere series, any NHL team would run a Euro team out of the rink, especially on smaller NA ice.).   

[Rob_Zepp]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

For Pettersson's development it's best he's playing in Sweden.  He's with men, on larger ice, and in a very skilled league.  (In a 7 game playoff atmosphere series, any NHL team would run a Euro team out of the rink, especially on smaller NA ice.).   

Switch that around, and I doubt every NHL team would "run the best Euro teams out of the rink" on the European ice over seven games.    No question the NHL team would likely win a series even on the switched ice surfaces but "run out of rink" says to me blowouts and I don't see that happening. 

[Canuck Surfer]

6 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Switch that around, and I doubt every NHL team would "run the best Euro teams out of the rink" on the European ice over seven games.    No question the NHL team would likely win a series even on the switched ice surfaces but "run out of rink" says to me blowouts and I don't see that happening. 

 

Is this something wholly to be dismissed?  There is some top talent, see Kovalchuck, particularly the KHL. But I dont believe the breadth and depth. Sweden, IMO, does have better top end talent than the AHL? But Rodin was an MVP in Sweden for example. And a valid prospect, but not top talent here by any stretch. The playing style and smaller rinks a factor that may have helped him be more effective there? Daniel Rahimi plays a substantial role for Petterson's team as another example. An NHL team, probably any NHL team, will defeat, handily, a team with Rahimi as a core player in my estimation.

 

[Putgolzin]

Fun discussion.

OK, so say we set up a Memorial Cup type of tournament where the champion team from SEL, KHL and AHL played (and throw in a host team from whichever league).

If it were to run for ten years, how many champions would emerge from each league?

3 SEL, 3 KHL, 4 AHL?

[BananaMash]

4 minutes ago, nzan said:

Fun discussion.

OK, so say we set up a Memorial Cup type of tournament where the champion team from SEL, KHL and AHL played (and throw in a host team from whichever league).

If it were to run for ten years, how many champions would emerge from each league?

3 SEL, 3 KHL, 4 AHL?

I would put my money on the championship team from the KHL or SEL most of the time, but wouldn't be surprised to see a stacked AHL championship team take it now and then; however, I don't think the AHL would win that cup more than 2 times in 10 years.

[Rob_Zepp]

6 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

 

Is this something wholly to be dismissed?  There is some top talent, see Kovalchuck, particularly the KHL. But I dont believe the breadth and depth. Sweden, IMO, does have better top end talent than the AHL? But Rodin was an MVP in Sweden for example. And a valid prospect, but not top talent here by any stretch. The playing style and smaller rinks a factor that may have helped him be more effective there? Daniel Rahimi plays a substantial role for Petterson's team as another example. An NHL team, probably any NHL team, will defeat, handily, a team with Rahimi as a core player in my estimation.

 

I am comparing from the ice level - it isn't as far different as you suggest.   Will leave it at that.   Seen both up very close and personal but admit a bias to the length of time I spent in Europe.

[Canuck Surfer]

7 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

I am comparing from the ice level - it isn't as far different as you suggest.   Will leave it at that.   Seen both up very close and personal but admit a bias to the length of time I spent in Europe.

The level of competition at the WJC's, for example, clearly suggest all the top Euro countries are developing top level talent. Highly competitive! And, of course, you are welcome to your opinion.

 

But the NHL attracts, steals if you will, most of the best talent from those countries. Their 3rd lines and 3rd pairs are made up of players who would be, overwhelmingly, top line players in the KHL, SHL, Liiga, etc. That is not the case in Sweden. Their 3rd lines are made up of guys who can not play top line in Sweden.

 

There is a big challenge to fill 30 pro teams in the two Swedish key pro leagues with their population base.  And further considering the majority of their true best players are in the NHL; I remain of the opinion the depth roles in Europe are just not at the same level. Daniel Rahimi, not even an effective AHL role player but gamely employed by Vaxjo, is an example.

[Rob_Zepp]

4 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

The level of competition at the WJC's, for example, clearly suggest all the top Euro countries are developing top level talent. Highly competitive! And, of course, you are welcome to your opinion.

 

But the NHL attracts, steals if you will, most of the best talent from those countries. Their 3rd lines and 3rd pairs are made up of players who would be, overwhelmingly, top line players in the KHL, SHL, Liiga, etc. That is not the case in Sweden. Their 3rd lines are made up of guys who can not play top line in Sweden.

 

There is a big challenge to fill 30 pro teams in the two Swedish key pro leagues with their population base.  And further considering the majority of their true best players are in the NHL; I remain of the opinion the depth roles in Europe are just not at the same level. Daniel Rahimi, not even an effective AHL role player but gamely employed by Vaxjo, is an example.

We will agree to disagree - would be great to one day see the top European champions play some NHL teams!