[Signing] Oilers re-sign Darnell Nurse

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

33 minutes ago, grandmaster said:

I think if Hughes expects a 9.5 x 8 year deal then I would be open to trading him. Deal like this would cripple teams. 
 

Just get another top 4 defenceman back on a reasonable Cap hit and a 1st rounder. I would be good with that. 

I don’t think Hughes (or his agent) would expect that kind of a deal.

 

The market still operates under a flawed system where UFA years are more valuable than RFA years, and we haven’t really seen things adjust to reality. 
 

The market has shifted to more appropriately reward RFA years, with many young star players signing big second deals that more adequately reward them for their prime playing years.
 

What hasn’t happened (yet) is the market correcting for the true value of UFA years. We continue to see the overpayment of players signing extensions at ages 26-30, with very high cap hits and lengthy terms, even though the vast majority of those players will decline through those contracts, and many (especially in the recent crop) will likely end up negative value over their term. 
 

I think eventually things will balance out, and you’ll see players make their really big money during the years when they are actually returning maximum value on the ice (ie: ages 20-27, give or take).

 

But we’re not there yet.

 

Anyway, back to Hughes…

 

Makar has set the market, when it comes to second contracts on young Dmen without many market comparables (if any, as, for the most part, as these guys are pretty unique).

 

Hughes, even if he’d had a similar season last year to the previous one (where he battled for the Calder), would probably come in at something slightly lower, like maybe $8-8.5M x 6 years, just based on the Makar comparison.

 

That’s if Hughes had maintained his 2019-20 performance levels.

 

But after having an off year last season, Hughes’s value should be set even lower. He hasn’t proven himself in back to back years like Makar has, so Hughes can’t really command the same dollars.

 

And right or wrong, the market still doesn’t really compare RFAs/10.2.c’s in their early twenties to UFAs in their mid-late twenties.
 

Inferior UFA aged players will still get paid more than the superior RFA aged players.
 

And probably even more so when it’s a 10.2.c “black box” player like Hughes.

 

He just doesn’t have the leverage.

 

And the market just doesn’t work that way.

 

The market is overheated though, and I’m sure the Avs are happy they got Makar done early, rather than later. Had they waited, who knows what he could command? 
 

There were no market comparables for Makar, so it was always kind of pulling numbers out of thin air. 
 

On pure value, however, the analytics say Makar is already worth $14-15M per season, and his age curve could put him at $20M value in his very peak prime years.

 

So $9M for Makar is money very well spent.

 

Quinn Hughes, at the moment (especially after last season), comes in significantly lower than Makar, by the analytics. And even by just basic stats, or just by the “eye test,” he’s just not considered to be in the same tier as Makar.

At least not right now. I’m still very bullish on Hughes and I think his 2019-20 season is closer to his real value (and that season, he was very close to Makar, and well within the highest tier of NHL Dmen).

 

But track record and proven performance is what really counts, and last season definitely set Hughes back and cooled off his value.

 

So now the Canucks have the benefit of using the Makar deal as a value cap.
 

There’s really no way for Hughes’s camp to argue in good faith that Hughes deserves more money than Makar. And the Canucks could argue that Hughes should be significantly lower, based on the side-by-side performance of Makar vs. Hughes, over the past two seasons.

 

Even with the overheated market and ridiculous deals we're seeing, I just don’t see Hughes getting pushed up into that $9M+ tier.

 

Maybe if Huggy’d had a great season in 2020-21, earned Norris consideration, and put himself in that very elite tier currently occupied by only a handful of other NHL Dmen, he’d be looking at some Makar level money. But fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on how you look at it), he just didn’t have that kind of season last year, and it cooled off his value, and likely brought his asking price down to something more reasonable (which is good news for the Canucks).

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, JamesBlondage said:

This is what happens when your GM is a complete idiot...

Who is the Coilers right shot shut down guy, Barrie?  

Keith, Barry, and Nurse make 20 million on the cap.  

[PhillipBlunt]

1 minute ago, grandmaster said:

Some owners are absentee. There are plenty of GMs and or team Presidents that have that power to convince their owners should they be more involved. It’s also a cut throat business. Things can get carried away. Yes, some owners are to blame as well. I just think they would all agree to a tighter system next go around.

Every owner. Sorry. If you're absentee then you're guilty in your absence. 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

10 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

The owners are just as culpable as the GMs, as they're giving them the authority to do so. That's the real issue. 

Didn't Katz ask & get corporate welfare money for his new arena?  Meanwhile he manages to throw away money like this.  

 

Alberta, the province where the traditional Tory party wasn't right wing enough.  Meanwhile in hippy-land BC, we have a hockey arena that was ENTIRELY funded privately.

Edited August 6, 2021 by NewbieCanuckFan

[Devron]

5 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

1 hour ago, grandmaster said:

I think if Hughes expects a 9.5 x 8 year deal then I would be open to trading him. Deal like this would cripple teams. 
 

Just get another top 4 defenceman back on a reasonable Cap hit and a 1st rounder. I would be good with that. 

Expand  

I don’t think Hughes (or his agent) would expect that kind of a deal.

 

The market still operates under a flawed system where UFA years are more valuable than RFA years, and we haven’t really seen things adjust to reality. 
 

The market has shifted to more appropriately reward RFA years, with many young star players signing big second deals that more adequately reward them for their prime playing years.
 

What hasn’t happened (yet) is the market correcting for the true value of UFA years. We continue to see the overpayment of players signing extensions at ages 26-30, with very high cap hits and lengthy terms, even though the vast majority of those players will decline through those contracts, and many (especially in the recent crop) will likely end up negative value over their term. 
 

I think eventually things will balance out, and you’ll see players make their really big money during the years when they are actually returning maximum value on the ice (ie: ages 20-27, give or take).

 

But we’re not there yet.

 

Anyway, back to Hughes…

 

Makar has set the market, when it comes to second contracts on young Dmen without many market comparables (if any, as, for the most part, as these guys are pretty unique).

 

Hughes, even if he’d had a similar season last year to the previous one (where he battled for the Calder), would probably come in at something slightly lower, like maybe $8-8.5M x 6 years, just based on the Makar comparison.

 

That’s if Hughes had maintained his 2019-20 performance levels.

 

But after having an off year last season, Hughes’s value should be set even lower. He hasn’t proven himself in back to back years like Makar has, so Hughes can’t really command the same dollars.

 

And right or wrong, the market still doesn’t really compare RFAs/10.2.c’s in their early twenties to UFAs in their mid-late twenties.
 

Inferior UFA aged players will still get paid more than the superior RFA aged players.
 

And probably even more so when it’s a 10.2.c “black box” player like Hughes.

 

He just doesn’t have the leverage.

 

And the market just doesn’t work that way.

 

The market is overheated though, and I’m sure the Avs are happy they got Makar done early, rather than later. Had they waited, who knows what he could command? 
 

There were no market comparables for Makar, so it was always kind of pulling numbers out of thin air. 
 

On pure value, however, the analytics say Makar is already worth $14-15M per season, and his age curve could put him at $20M value in his very peak prime years.

 

So $9M for Makar is money very well spent.

 

Quinn Hughes, at the moment (especially after last season), comes in significantly lower than Makar, by the analytics. And even by just basic stats, or just by the “eye test,” he’s just not considered to be in the same tier as Makar.

At least not right now. I’m still very bullish on Hughes and I think his 2019-20 season is closer to his real value (and that season, he was very close to Makar, and well within the highest tier of NHL Dmen).

 

But track record and proven performance is what really counts, and last season definitely set Hughes back and cooled off his value.

 

So now the Canucks have the benefit of using the Makar deal as a value cap.
 

There’s really no way for Hughes’s camp to argue in good faith that Hughes deserves more money than Makar. And the Canucks could argue that Hughes should be significantly lower, based on the side-by-side performance of Makar vs. Hughes, over the past two seasons.

 

Even with the overheated market and ridiculous deals we're seeing, I just don’t see Hughes getting pushed up into that $9M+ tier

Probably the best thing for the organization long term was a down year by Hughes. Thank god our whole team sucked. Saving grace for this years RFA contract negotiations 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

5 minutes ago, Devron44 said:

Probably the best thing for the organization long term was a down year by Hughes. Thank god our whole team sucked. Saving grace for this years RFA contract negotiations 

It really has the potential to be the silver lining of last season.

 

2020-21 was a painful experience for us fans, but hopefully the payoff will be Benning getting good value on those pending extensions, ensuring some contending years for this young core, and good times for everyone in Canuckland.

[Nuxfanabroad]

How ever people try to explain numbers like these, it's a ruse & not sustainable.

 

Meanwhile, TBay has Hedman, McDon, Sergachev & Cernak LOCKED IN under 23 mill, for the next two seasons. Under 6 mill each?

Not to mention, every depth player signs there for prob 300-700k less than they'd demand to play in Canada.

 

Likely never see a sustainable contender built in Canada, ever again. The biz side is just a fancy, rigged scam.

[Silky mitts]

Jesus 

[kloubek]

That is a LOT of money for Nurse. WTF is with defensemen contracts this offseason....??!

[-AJ-]

1 hour ago, PhillipBlunt said:

I'd agree there. Nurse, while not the offensive dynamo, isn't too shabby offensively. 

His minutes are insane, and he's solid defensively and physically. Way more well rounded. 

 

Neither Nurse or Hughes is worth anywhere near $9M though. Hell, neither is Jones. 

It's a risk based on one good year. If he's perennially a top 10 D in the NHL, he might be worth it, but I'm not convinced he'll always be that good.

[MattJVD]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

If this is how it works, then what about this scenario...

 

Cap limit is 80m.

 

Team currently has an 85m cap hit.  One top 6 forward worth 5m is the reason the team is over the cap.

 

Team acquires a player on LTIR for the entire season with a cap hit of 6m.  Team is now cap compliant.

 

If the LTIR players cap hit truly counted against the cap, there would be no situation where teams acquired a player on LTIR to become cap compliant (as we have seen Tampa and Toronto do) because in this scenario the cap hit would be 86m (85m + 6m of the LTIR player less 5m used on the top 6 forward) which would still be non-compliant.

If the team is at 85 million and acquires a player on LTIR with a 6 million cap hit: their cap hit goes up to 91 million (85+6), and then the LTIR relief brings them back down to 85. Nothing gained.

 

Tampa traded players who were on their roster and not on LTIR for players on LTIR. 

 

Out: Braydon Coburn (1.7 mil), Cedric Paquette (1.65 mil) and a 2nd round pick.

In: Neillson (LTIR) and Gaborik (LTIR).

 

The savings were in losing Pacquette and Coburn, not in gaining the LTIR players.

 

Tampa paid a 2nd round pick to gain a little bit of cap flexibility (less than $1 mil with those contracts burried).

[justathought]

Bwahahaha

[Butters Stoch]

Horrible contract. Hope this cripples the Oilers but not badly enough to get anymore lottery picks.

[Podz92]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Who is the Coilers right shot shut down guy, Barrie?  

Keith, Barry, and Nurse make 20 million on the cap.  

So between Keith, Barrie, Nurse, McDavid and Draisaitl that’s over half the cap...good thing Nugent-Hopkins took a discount eh?? Lol

[DrJockitch]

Holy Crap.

They did see that the cap is going to be flat again next year didn't they.

I guess I should celebrate this though maybe only until I see what Quinn gets.

[rekker]

23 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

It's a risk based on one good year. If he's perennially a top 10 D in the NHL, he might be worth it, but I'm not convinced he'll always be that good.

Exactly. It was a bubble season to boot. You really can't read much into what happened for personal play in a 7 team bubble format. Terrible overpayment. 

[wildcam]

I really think Petey and Quinn sign 3 yr deals...

Petey - 3 X 7.5 Million

Quinn-  3 X 6.8 Million

[Hairy Kneel]

Are they close to 4 players for 40M

Like To? 

[Drakrami]

with this... we used to have cap room. Not anymore after signing Hughes/Pettersson. 

[Ilya Mikheyev]

What happened to Ken Holland this off-season? Damn