Elias Pettersson | Quinn Hughes - Contract Discussion Thread

[The_Rocket]

here are my Petey estimates:

 

8 years @ 9.6 million

7 years @ 9.3 million 

6 years @ 8.9 million

5 years @ 8.4 million

4 years @ 7.6 million

3 years @ 7.25 million

 

i think the most likely scenario is either 3 or 6 years, based on Petey’s confidence in the team, the uncertainty of how the cap will increase over time, and how much petey thinks he will improve 

explanation:

 

I made a contract estimator on excel and ran different scenarios for what Pettersson’s contract might look like on different terms. Here are my assumptions:

A 3 year deal is 7.25 million AAV based on Barzal comparable + a little bit more due to Pettersson’s status and reputation. 

UFA years (years 5-8 of any contract he signs) are worth $11.5 million per year in future dollars. That’s around ~$10.5 million in today’s dollars. I used players like draisaitl, point, Tavares, toews, courtourier, kopitar, and eichel to derive this number. His UFA years could be more expensive depending on inflation and how close to those players he and the Canucks believes he will be when he is 26 years old. 

To estimate salary cap increase, I used 2 calculations. One assumes a 3% increase per year, the other assumes a flat $1 million increase per year. I estimate out 4 years (to
Pettersson’s first UFA year) to adjust his future dollars into real terms. Then I took the average of the two calculations for my model. 

I assumed that Petey’s final RFA year (the 4th season from now) is worth his Qualifying Offer on a 3 year bridge at 7.25 million. The QO would be 120% of the AAV of the bridge deal (assuming backloaded), or $8.4 million. I weighted this value into all calculations of 4 years or more. 

Finally, right before posting this, I Ran kaprizov’s rumoured $9x5 contract through the model using all the same assumptions. The only thing I changed was the number of RFA years (kaprizov only has 3 left, compared to Patterson’s 4). If we assume kaprizov is a comparable, then I found his new contract perfectly fits my model when adjusting for RFA years remaining. 

So I plugged in all the different term options and here are my results. 

Please note that my assumptions are based on a known value of a 3 year deal, so I’m not able to use the model to calculate 1 or 2 year deals.

[-Vintage Canuck-]

I can confirm that Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes won’t sign their contracts this month. We will see you next month.

[Apricot]

Don't ask how I know but Petey is signing tomorrow

[J-P]

4 hours ago, Apricot said:

Don't ask how I know but Petey is signing tomorrow

How do you know? ;-)

[UKNuck96]

5 hours ago, Apricot said:

Don't ask how I know but Petey is signing tomorrow

Should we be holding our breath or not? 

[IBatch]

5 hours ago, UKNuck96 said:

Should we be holding our breath or not? 

Shhhhh!  We aren't supposed to ask don't jinx it! 

[Bad_BOI_pete]

10 hours ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

I can confirm that Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes won’t sign their contracts this month. We will see you next month.

who r u?

[IBatch]

14 hours ago, The_Rocket said:

here are my Petey estimates:

 

8 years @ 9.6 million

7 years @ 9.3 million 

6 years @ 8.9 million

5 years @ 8.4 million

4 years @ 7.6 million

3 years @ 7.25 million

 

i think the most likely scenario is either 3 or 6 years, based on Petey’s confidence in the team, the uncertainty of how the cap will increase over time, and how much petey thinks he will improve 

explanation:

 

I made a contract estimator on excel and ran different scenarios for what Pettersson’s contract might look like on different terms. Here are my assumptions:

A 3 year deal is 7.25 million AAV based on Barzal comparable + a little bit more due to Pettersson’s status and reputation. 

UFA years (years 5-8 of any contract he signs) are worth $11.5 million per year in future dollars. That’s around ~$10.5 million in today’s dollars. I used players like draisaitl, point, Tavares, toews, courtourier, kopitar, and eichel to derive this number. His UFA years could be more expensive depending on inflation and how close to those players he and the Canucks believes he will be when he is 26 years old. 

To estimate salary cap increase, I used 2 calculations. One assumes a 3% increase per year, the other assumes a flat $1 million increase per year. I estimate out 4 years (to
Pettersson’s first UFA year) to adjust his future dollars into real terms. Then I took the average of the two calculations for my model. 

I assumed that Petey’s final RFA year (the 4th season from now) is worth his Qualifying Offer on a 3 year bridge at 7.25 million. The QO would be 120% of the AAV of the bridge deal (assuming backloaded), or $8.4 million. I weighted this value into all calculations of 4 years or more. 

Finally, right before posting this, I Ran kaprizov’s rumoured $9x5 contract through the model using all the same assumptions. The only thing I changed was the number of RFA years (kaprizov only has 3 left, compared to Patterson’s 4). If we assume kaprizov is a comparable, then I found his new contract perfectly fits my model when adjusting for RFA years remaining. 

So I plugged in all the different term options and here are my results. 

Please note that my assumptions are based on a known value of a 3 year deal, so I’m not able to use the model to calculate 1 or 2 year deals.

What would the model look like if EP three year deal is the same as Barzal's?  Also RH has a two year bridge at 5.   Just read an article suggesting Guerin should offer sheet EP rather then go after Eichel...And offer the same money, 5 years at 10 million.  The thinking is he wouldn't have to give up any assets other then futures...That's one scary proposition.   If EP signs it ... wow i guess it really is all about the money lol, but if they can jam EP in with their budding Bure-esque scorer then ... i suppose EP could say he felt MIN was a winning team lol.   There are flaws with the article, they aren't considering the facts right with the money JB has to spend.   And that we could match and then return the favour in a couple years when we have money freeing up lol.   Ten in MIN is like 10.5-11.0 here too.   Can't see why EP wouldn't take a deal like that from any US team if it's all about the money.    Detroit could easily do this too but i doubt Yzerman thinks they are done tanking, still need their picks.    

 

Anyways - i still think both EP and QHs will end up with more then they should - but do understand, that the next 4-7 years will likely be some of if not all of their best ones.   At the start i would have never said this, but at this point i'd be stoked if we did an identical 8-8.25x8 deal for the pair.   QHs would be a little overpaid, and EP a little underpaid.   If EP is worth 5 x 2 then he's not worth 7 x 3 either.    Games played do factor in.   It's not easy on a team when key players are only available 2/3 of a season...we went through this with Edler at times and especially Salo and Tanev. 

[-DLC-]

 

[Xur]

Just doing my hourly check in to see if they signed yet........

[steviewonder20]

17 hours ago, The_Rocket said:

here are my Petey estimates:

 

8 years @ 9.6 million

7 years @ 9.3 million 

6 years @ 8.9 million

5 years @ 8.4 million

4 years @ 7.6 million

3 years @ 7.25 million

 

i think the most likely scenario is either 3 or 6 years, based on Petey’s confidence in the team, the uncertainty of how the cap will increase over time, and how much petey thinks he will improve 

explanation:

 

I made a contract estimator on excel and ran different scenarios for what Pettersson’s contract might look like on different terms. Here are my assumptions:

A 3 year deal is 7.25 million AAV based on Barzal comparable + a little bit more due to Pettersson’s status and reputation. 

UFA years (years 5-8 of any contract he signs) are worth $11.5 million per year in future dollars. That’s around ~$10.5 million in today’s dollars. I used players like draisaitl, point, Tavares, toews, courtourier, kopitar, and eichel to derive this number. His UFA years could be more expensive depending on inflation and how close to those players he and the Canucks believes he will be when he is 26 years old. 

To estimate salary cap increase, I used 2 calculations. One assumes a 3% increase per year, the other assumes a flat $1 million increase per year. I estimate out 4 years (to
Pettersson’s first UFA year) to adjust his future dollars into real terms. Then I took the average of the two calculations for my model. 

I assumed that Petey’s final RFA year (the 4th season from now) is worth his Qualifying Offer on a 3 year bridge at 7.25 million. The QO would be 120% of the AAV of the bridge deal (assuming backloaded), or $8.4 million. I weighted this value into all calculations of 4 years or more. 

Finally, right before posting this, I Ran kaprizov’s rumoured $9x5 contract through the model using all the same assumptions. The only thing I changed was the number of RFA years (kaprizov only has 3 left, compared to Patterson’s 4). If we assume kaprizov is a comparable, then I found his new contract perfectly fits my model when adjusting for RFA years remaining. 

So I plugged in all the different term options and here are my results. 

Please note that my assumptions are based on a known value of a 3 year deal, so I’m not able to use the model to calculate 1 or 2 year deals.

I expect 3 years @ 7.5 million for Petey.

[Slegr]

It sure has been quiet on this front. 
I’m hoping these two get signed in time for training camp, because we’ve already seen what a rushed intro to the season (last year) does to their performances. They both looked out of sorts at the start of last season.

At the same time, if it means a more reasonable price tag, and supporting the depth of this team, I’d be okay with having them sit longer to come around with negotiations. They deserve to be paid fairly, but for sake of a competitive team, not a dollar more.

[DeNiro]

11 minutes ago, Slegr said:

It sure has been quiet on this front. 
I’m hoping these two get signed in time for training camp, because we’ve already seen what a rushed intro to the season (last year) does to their performances. They both looked out of sorts at the start of last season.

At the same time, if it means a more reasonable price tag, and supporting the depth of this team, I’d be okay with having them sit longer to come around with negotiations. They deserve to be paid fairly, but for sake of a competitive team, not a dollar more.

It’s possible both deals are already done and they’re just waiting for training camp to have a press conference and announce them.

 

Look at Long Island Lou today. Announcing 4 signings in one day. Obviously they were all previously negotiated.

[Fanuck]

6 hours ago, IBatch said:

Just read an article suggesting Guerin should offer sheet EP rather then go after Eichel...And offer the same money, 5 years at 10 million.  

If that's the case I'd seriously consider walking away from EP and taking the two 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and give Huggy more $/term with the savings.   People wouldn't like it short-term but having those lottery picks could potentially get a player as good or better than EP and/or be used to get an excellent player already under contract.  People need to understand there's a chance EP doesn't stay here long-term.

[BabychStache]

49 minutes ago, Fanuck said:

If that's the case I'd seriously consider walking away from EP and taking the two 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and give Huggy more $/term with the savings.   People wouldn't like it short-term but having those lottery picks could potentially get a player as good or better than EP and/or be used to get an excellent player already under contract.  People need to understand there's a chance EP doesn't stay here long-term.

I hear what you're saying, but I'd hate if this type of a scenario goes down. 

 

Petey is up there with: Naslund, Bure, Linden, Sedins, as one of the best talents this club has ever had. His re draft he goes 1st Overall with Makar as 2nd. So rare to find a player with his skills AND a winning attitude outside of the top 3. 

 

[The_Rocket]

7 hours ago, IBatch said:

What would the model look like if EP three year deal is the same as Barzal's?  Also RH has a two year bridge at 5.   Just read an article suggesting Guerin should offer sheet EP rather then go after Eichel...And offer the same money, 5 years at 10 million.  The thinking is he wouldn't have to give up any assets other then futures...That's one scary proposition.   If EP signs it ... wow i guess it really is all about the money lol, but if they can jam EP in with their budding Bure-esque scorer then ... i suppose EP could say he felt MIN was a winning team lol.   There are flaws with the article, they aren't considering the facts right with the money JB has to spend.   And that we could match and then return the favour in a couple years when we have money freeing up lol.   Ten in MIN is like 10.5-11.0 here too.   Can't see why EP wouldn't take a deal like that from any US team if it's all about the money.    Detroit could easily do this too but i doubt Yzerman thinks they are done tanking, still need their picks.    

 

Anyways - i still think both EP and QHs will end up with more then they should - but do understand, that the next 4-7 years will likely be some of if not all of their best ones.   At the start i would have never said this, but at this point i'd be stoked if we did an identical 8-8.25x8 deal for the pair.   QHs would be a little overpaid, and EP a little underpaid.   If EP is worth 5 x 2 then he's not worth 7 x 3 either.    Games played do factor in.   It's not easy on a team when key players are only available 2/3 of a season...we went through this with Edler at times and especially Salo and Tanev. 

Plugging in $7 million instead of $7.25 million lowers all contracts by about 100-200k annually. Not much of a difference. Increasing it to $7.5 million similar. Just bounces around the AAV’s in the margins. On all my number’s I would recommended viewing them as a range of +/- 5%. 
 

that’s interesting about the 2 years at $5 million. Personally I think that is too low. Evolving-Hockey has a similar number for a 2 year deal (4.9 I believe) but they seem to be really underestimating Pettersson’s contract. They have him at $8 million for 8 years. Anything shorter and they have for under $8 million AAV. 
 

Dhaliwal has reported on Donnie and Dhali that Barzal is the direct comparable they (the player agents) are using for the petey contract, so I feel very comfortable with my 3 year projection. It’s relatively easy to build out the UFA years using cap-hit %, though admittedly I may be undervaluing those years. 3 of the comparables are multi-cup winners (Kane, toews, and Kopitar) so I think they’re values are over inflated compared to what Petey’s next deal will be. 
 

as for the offer sheet at 5 x 10…. It would be a super bad move for Minny. Canucks will instantly match but they will also likely hold a grudge. Minny will be in cap hell in 2 years when prarise and suter buy penalties are $15 million in dead cap. Not a good time to make an enemy if I’m them. 
 

 

[Coconuts]

 

[Apricot]

On 8/31/2021 at 9:37 PM, Apricot said:

Don't ask how I know but Petey is signing tomorrow

I lied 

[fanfor42]

6 hours ago, Fanuck said:

If that's the case I'd seriously consider walking away from EP and taking the two 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and give Huggy more $/term with the savings.   People wouldn't like it short-term but having those lottery picks could potentially get a player as good or better than EP and/or be used to get an excellent player already under contract.  People need to understand there's a chance EP doesn't stay here long-term.

If Petey signs a Minny offer sheet let him go. Lol he has to play 5 plus years in Minny.

Not gonna happen. 

[McBackup]

In regards to walking away as far as offer sheets go, I think its the inverse of players being available in a trade. The adage is "everyone is tradeable for the right price". If someone wants to give up a ton of high valued assets for a player, no matter who they are you have to look at it and consider making the move. The inverse is true with offersheets. If someone came along and offered Pettersson 8 years at 15 mil per, you have to at the very least consider it. Obviously thats an absurd overvaluation and wouldn't happen, but the principle behind the idea is there.