Petey40 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Just now, J-Dizzle said: Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03? Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? The Italians have an aging population and a lot of them smoke which is heavily contributing to the deaths. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-SN- Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 minute ago, J-Dizzle said: Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03? Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? There's no easy answer right now. It could be hitting certain areas or populations that are more prone, or it could be far more prevalent than testing has been able to show (lack of tests, no staff etc). That likely won't be known until later when the right people can look at it in better circumstances. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-Dizzle Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Petey40 said: The Italians have an aging population and a lot of them smoke which is heavily contributing to the deaths. Gotcha. We of course also have a somewhat older population as well. So basically at this point it’s wash your hands and don’t go out of your way to go places you might get infected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Petey40 said: The Italians have an aging population and a lot of them smoke which is heavily contributing to the deaths. And their culture involves a lot of touching each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Glug Datt said: that's friggin brutal.. I thought most infected people could self isolate & ride it out at home.. does every patient in Italy actually need to be in a hospital? what happens if someone comes in with a legit problem (heart attack, industrial accident)? In China, cancer patients were being turned away from treatments, etc - due to no doctors. They also designated some hospitals specifically for coronavirus, with others continuing regular treatments. I don't know if N.A. has that capacity..... Vancouver Island has what - three-four primary hospitals? (Comox, Nanaimo, Victoria x2). Even if only 5% of the population on Vancouver Island got it - that's 43500 / 875,000 infected, with maybe 20% of that needing intense hospital / critical care treatments (~10000). That's on top of regular hospitalizations.... Edited March 12, 2020 by Canadian Math error. Even higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-Dizzle Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 minute ago, StealthNuck said: There's no easy answer right now. It could be hitting certain areas or populations that are more prone, or it could be far more prevalent than testing has been able to show (lack of tests, no staff etc). That likely won't be known until later when the right people can look at it in better circumstances. It is also possible people aren’t reporting it IF it’s not as serious.... I can certainly think of certain areas in our own province that could be more susceptible though.... lots of seniors in the Okanagan.... a community like Quesnel is relatively retirement oriented as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petey40 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) For clarity, the reason China was able to contain this for the moment (the future remains to be seen) is because of the draconian measures put in place and the additional 16 makeshift hospitals and 10,000 healthcare professionals sent to deal with it. The reason South Korea has been able to contain it is they have been testing at a higher rate than any other country so they’ve been able to limit community spread. Italy was too late and they’re seeing the consequences of it, Canada and the USA are trending similar to Italy and absolutely need to step up there measures or this will get out of control before they know what hit them. Edited because sources say China sent 10,000 additional healthcare professionals not 30,000 my mistake. Edited March 12, 2020 by Petey40 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, Glug Datt said: that's friggin brutal.. I thought most infected people could self isolate & ride it out at home.. does every patient in Italy actually need to be in a hospital? what happens if someone comes in with a legit problem (heart attack, industrial accident)? Read above you, that's a pretty stark picture. Apparently it happens fast and many many people cannot breath without ventilators. My town of 40 000 has 4 ventilators, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, J-Dizzle said: Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03? Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? sorry, 3% not .03. As others said, they have an older population. The boomer population in North America is massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FutureFilm Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Petey40 said: For clarity, the reason China was able to contain this for the moment (the future remains to be seen) is because of the draconian measures put in place and the additional 19 makeshift hospitals and 30,000 healthcare professionals sent to deal with it. The reason South Korea has been able to contain it is they have been testing at a higher rate than any other country so they’ve been able to limit community spread. Italy was too late and they’re seeing the consequences of it, Canada and the USA are trending similar to Italy and absolutely need to step up there measures or this will get out of control before they know what hit them. South Korea had/has drive thru testing centres, was very swift in its testing measures. USA has a horrible medical system in which people wont get tested because they cant afford the associated costs of getting tested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottish⑦Canuck Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 24 minutes ago, Hectic said: I really don't understand what's going on here. this is absolutely ridiculous. people are following the media frenzy and this is getting a bit out of hand. is cancelling the NBA season going to stop the spread of the virus? No, it's a virus, it's going to spread anyways. I don't think putting life on pause because of a virus makes any sense - people who are more susceptible can make that decision for themselves, but to me this just shows how people will just follow whatever information they head in the news and absolutely lose their minds. I can see why limiting the spread of the virus is something that people should be doing, for all diseases, but for this to be overblown to the point of actually cancelling major sports leagues and to the point where the stock market is taking a huge hit and toilet paper is comically in demand.. I'm just having a hard time understanding how the majority of our society today is responding to this the way that they are. On the contrary I think suspending all sports or playing games behind closed doors is a sensible measure. We've already seen it in many European countries. That many people gathering in close proximity is a recipe for disaster. Social distancing measures can be implemented without hysteria. People in many countries are just too stupid to do so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cuporbust Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) http://www.theshovel.com.au/2020/03/08/5-great-toilet-paper-recipes/ Edited March 12, 2020 by cuporbust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 30 minutes ago, Hectic said: I really don't understand what's going on here. this is absolutely ridiculous. people are following the media frenzy and this is getting a bit out of hand. is cancelling the NBA season going to stop the spread of the virus? No, it's a virus, it's going to spread anyways. I don't think putting life on pause because of a virus makes any sense - people who are more susceptible can make that decision for themselves, but to me this just shows how people will just follow whatever information they head in the news and absolutely lose their minds. I can see why limiting the spread of the virus is something that people should be doing, for all diseases, but for this to be overblown to the point of actually cancelling major sports leagues and to the point where the stock market is taking a huge hit and toilet paper is comically in demand.. I'm just having a hard time understanding how the majority of our society today is responding to this the way that they are. I'm not sure how people aren't getting that it's as much about managing the health care system than it is about containment, if not more. It took about a week for hospitals in Italy to become overrun and now drs and nurses are becoming infected and infecting others. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, stawns said: 827 people dead out of 12000 cases in Italy. Those are real numbers and around 6.5-7%. Italy has a higher number of elderly people, hence the the higher % of deaths. But I totally get your point, this is not something any of us should take lightly. https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ This website is really useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHL rocks Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 53 minutes ago, J-Dizzle said: Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03? Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? sorry, 3% not .03. From what I've read last week or so its because Italians have higher percentage of elderly population. Mortality rate for the elderly is upto 15%. Plus there are thousands of people who get virus and recover without getting hospitalized or tested.. So actual mortality rate is close to 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaimito Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, J-Dizzle said: Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03? Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? sorry, 3% not .03. Fair question that has everyone in both public and government officials confused. If you don't mind reading, this article shows why. Essentially, depending on what public health measures are in place and at what point of the epidemic curve a country is on, you will get different effects and therefore fatality rates. Death rate inside Hubei is different than outside but still within China, for example. The rates also vary depending on the population infected (age, comorbidities). But once epidemic overwhelms the health care system capacity, people will more likely die due to inadequate resource and not just because of the viral infection (that is, had the hospital wasn't overwhelmed, they would have survived.) We also don't know what some comorbidities like obesity has on it, but it's likely making it worse. North Americans are more obese and that may result in higher deaths or severe disease. In China, high percentage of smokers among older men made it worse. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca This is what you can conclude: Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China). Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5% Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer. Edited March 12, 2020 by Jaimito Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 It is almost certain the season will get suspended now. How would the NHL not follow the lead of the NBA, it seems like it would be a huge liability issue. If there aren’t playoffs I wonder if the draft is run based on last year’s results or by current winning percentage for this season. On the good side, if it follows other similar viruses, it starts fading when we weather comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kobayashi Maru Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) Let’s not forget that the other flu strains cause around 290 000 - 650 000 deaths every year. If that was reported every year with maps and death rates people would also freak out: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) This strain has a slightly higher impact and is more contagious and the issue is the potential overwhelming of health care setups where they can’t help everyone at once. Definitely worth the precautions but don’t forget how deadly the other strains of flu are. Edited March 12, 2020 by Kobayashi Maru 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samurai Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 59 minutes ago, Petey40 said: The Italians have an aging population and a lot of them smoke which is heavily contributing to the deaths. no - age has been ruled out in region where it started (lombardi i believe) you are talking about. It is relatively young and affluent. The system is overburdened. Plus its Italy. Plus there are not enough Costco so people cannot buy toilet paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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