Will Jim B's give-aways of 23 draft picks under his rule come back to haunt the Canucks ?

[coolboarder]

Having a draft pick is not a much valuable if you choose wrong players.  It is a wasted pick so it's better to give away some picks for some good returns that is not wasted.  If a GM traded away a pick, that means, he probably knew that the pick might not be good and would rather getting something better at later round but getting something he knows exactly what he would get back.  Draft is a unknown prospect that may or may not pan out..  

[RomanP]

On 7/27/2021 at 10:52 AM, RU SERIOUS said:

While watching Donnie & Dhali yesterday, it was mentioned that Jim B has apparently given away 23 draft picks so far under his reign.   The question now becomes; Can the Canucks build up a strong enough organization to win a cup with this approach or, will the short term rewards gained by trading away all these draft picks leave us short and in an eternal "sloppy-second place" type finishes and ongoing retooling/rebuilding due to always being short a few assets in the cupboard?

Are you serious?

[JM_]

3 hours ago, kanucks25 said:

 

Both missed the point of the post... he was suggesting Bonino was brought in by Gillis lol.

ah, sorry, it looked like a Benning rant 

[kanucks25]

5 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

ah, sorry, it looked like a Benning rant 

Honestly, can't blame you.  Here you go:

 

FWIW, I liked Bonino. And that trade actually would have turned out pretty good if they doubled down on the positive aspects (kept Bonino and McCann) instead of the negative (jettisoned the two aforementioned players and kept/re-signed Sbisa to a laughable contract).

[thad]

I think the fact that he hit big on a first line centre, #1 Dman and a big game goalie wins this argument for Jim already. If we were missing even one of those key pieces  the reason would be we didn’t take enough swings at the draft and we wouldn’t have a real shot at the cup. Sure we could be in better shape but getting the 3 hardest to find pieces of the puzzle really saved his ass in my opinion. He may have traded way to many picks but at least landing Petey Hughes and Demko really gave this next generation a legitimate chance. 
 

He’s going to have to smarten up going forward here though. Need to stock up for when we have to make the do we keep brock or podkolzin type decisions. Hopefully at least one of Klimovich or Lockhart hits by the time Podz and Hogie earn their big one

[Alflives]

Miller or that Machmuldin guy.

Garland, OEL, dumping three toxic contracts or that Geunther guy.

 

Have to be a complete and utter moron, imbecile, and idiot to think these are not HUGE WINS for us.  

 

[Me_]

Will Jim B's give-aways of 23 draft picks under his rule come back to haunt the Canucks ?

 

Had he been so damn inept at drafting as his predecessors were, then yes.

 

But he is such a genius superstar drafter, those 23 picks mean nothing.

 

Turning a 1st into Miller and then a 1st, 2nd & 3rd into OEL/Garland makes that 19 picks. A 3rd for Dickinson, that’s 18.

 

I am not worried.

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Me_

[Hogs & Podz]

3 hours ago, thad said:

I think the fact that he hit big on a first line centre, #1 Dman and a big game goalie wins this argument for Jim already. If we were missing even one of those key pieces  the reason would be we didn’t take enough swings at the draft and we wouldn’t have a real shot at the cup. Sure we could be in better shape but getting the 3 hardest to find pieces of the puzzle really saved his ass in my opinion. He may have traded way to many picks but at least landing Petey Hughes and Demko really gave this next generation a legitimate chance. 
 

He’s going to have to smarten up going forward here though. Need to stock up for when we have to make the do we keep brock or podkolzin type decisions. Hopefully at least one of Klimovich or Lockhart hits by the time Podz and Hogie earn their big one

We're just heading into our competitive window.  If we want to extend the time it's open, we'll need to keep at least the first three rounds going forward for more high impact players filtering in when some of our stars peak.  I think we have some decent support forwards and defencemen still coming but no big impact players in the pipeline.

[Bure_of_94]

I don’t know. But JB has been producing on average one NHLer every draft even with giving away those draft picks. Prior to him going back up until the sedins’ draft year the Canucks were averaging about 1 NHL player once every 1.75 years. 
 So say what you will but JB has done a good job at drafting compared to the years before he got here. 

[Primal Optimist]

I just feel like the Canucks have done well drafting all in all. Jim Benning was formally introduced as the GM on May 23rd 2014 and I am only going back to the 2013 draft 

 

from newest to oldest, just a few good hits:

 

 

Vasili Podkolzin 10th overall 2019

Nils Hoglander 40th overall 2019

Quinn Hughes 7th overall 2018

Jet Woo 37th overall 2018

Elias Pettersson 5th overall 2017

Kole Lind 33rd overall 2017 (selected by the Kraken 2021)

Michael DiPietro 64th overall 2017

Olli Juolevi 5th overall 2016 (knee injury slowed down his ascent to the biggs but he is there now)

Brock Boeser 23rd overall 2015

Thatcher Demko 36th overall 2014

Nikita Tryamkin 66th overall 2014 (good player even if he went back to Europe)

Bo Horvat 9th overall 2013 (mentioned as he has grown to be our captain in the Benning Era)

 

So the last two years, we have less data on the outcomes however we like what we see in

Joni Jurmo 82nd overall 2020

Spoiler

Joni Jurmo, LD, JYP (Liiga)

82nd overall

6-foot-4, 198 pounds

2019-20 statistics: 43GP, 5G-23A-28P (Jokerit U20)

Strengths: Excellent size. Top-notch skater. Dynamic puck rusher. Effective transition piece.

Weaknesses: Decision-making and reads. Defensive play

Ceiling: Second pair, puck-moving defenceman

Scott Wheeler: I really liked this pick — I believe he was 63rd on my board. He’s got some warts to his game and he’s going to be a little bit of a project but he’s 6-foot-4, very aggressive with the puck and offensively. Loves to take the puck up ice, join the rush and create chances that way. I think that aggression can kind of get him burned defensively when he tries to do too much and strays from his positioning, but on talent he’s a really good pick in that range.

Burke: That was an awesome pick. I didn’t even consider him as an option for the Canucks because he should have gone in the second. There are some questions about whether he thinks the game well enough to play in the NHL, but with his size, with his skating, I think he has a really good chance.

His offensive instincts are a bit better than people give him credit for. He can find teammates through layers from the point, he can make good passes in transition.

It’s defensive habits (that he needs to improve), he’s a little too reactive in the defensive zone for my tastes. He doesn’t play too much to his size in terms of throwing the body for a 6-foot-4 defender. I don’t think that top-four upside is out of the question at all, though he’s most likely a No.5/6. In terms of the talent that he has and the tools that are already at an NHL level, that’s a hell of a bet in the third round.

Robinson: People were throwing around (Esa) Lindell as a potential comparable for him long-term and yeah, the physical profile matches pretty well. He’s a better skater than Lindell is, but defensively he’s not nearly as fearless with his physicality, his defensive zone awareness needs a lot of work. He hasn’t got it, as far as taking over with his physicality, to this point and I think he’s less likely to develop it at the NHL level.

I think that he can still play an effective defensive game without being a brute with his long reach. He can smother oncoming rushes with good angling and nice angling.

His weaknesses aren’t as debilitating as his strengths, especially at Pick 82. This guy had early second-round potential all day so to get him in the late third is a heck of a swing and something that I’d put on a stamp on too.

Danila Klimovich 41st overall 2021

Spoiler

July 2021 – Just days following his second-round selection, Klomovich has officially signed his ELC and will cross the pond to take part in Canucks’ training camp. While the more likely outcome has him playing his inaugural year in Abbotsford, you can expect the club to be very hands-on with his development. Having him just down the road is a great benefit to both the player and the organization. Dave Hall

July 2021 – The Canucks have selected Danila Klimovich with the 41st pick in the 2021 entry-draft. The Belarus native is a creative goal-scorer, who carries a deadly release and swift skating ability. He plays the game with bite and shows a strong competitive nature. At times, too much competitiveness. While he is currently in Russia auditioning for his first KHL stint, initial reports indicate that him crossing the pond to join the club for training camp. Dave Hall

 

Dobber Prospects ranks him as a 7.0 for fantasy Upside and 8.5 for NHL Certainty, which is extremely high marks. I am not worried about our pipeline.

 

I guess in summary, for me, if you can add a player to your roster on the big club from every single draft year, your ahead of the game and if you can add two or more in any given draft class, your winning the game on prospects identification and training. FA and trades do the rest for any club and spending draft picks on trades is, again for me, as good as drafting with them if the player is worthy of the pick in the first place.

 

Take Garland: i would have used a first round pick to select him if he was somehow in the 2021 draft with his current age and history: so it was pretty no brainer to use it to get him while dumping so much dead cap space. Shrug. I am happy with the way things are turning out. Not a JB hater at all, not his biggest fan either but he is competent and his team drafts well. 

 

EDIT: oh and for what it is worth, a Home Grown core from the draft is an amazing thing to have and I feel fortunate with the canucks pretty much from Y2K to today after being a consciously aware fan from roughly 1978 onwards: even the years we made two cup runs prior to Y2K the entire time the team was not good with only slight hits like Bure to push us to within reach. 

 

I think we have had it lucky for 20 years and fans don't recall how icky most years were before the Nassy era. I am looking forward to next season very much, and can totally get over the two covid seasons where JB took the time to do what he needed to do to fix some things. 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Primal Optimist

[Guest]

Phrasing, phrasing, phrasing!  
 

It’s super annoying to read purposely deceiving statements like this one.  
 

Benning has drafted TWO less times over 7 years. 
Benning has traded away 23 picks and acquired 21 picks over the same time. 
 

Every day a part of me dies when i look at people’s comprehension and critical thinking. 

[Crabcakes]

The way I see it, every team is given 7 assets to play with every season and they can use those assets and the present roster to maintain or improve the squad.  It's a fools errand to get hung up on exercising draft picks at the draft table.

 

What you must do while rebuilding and drafting high, because you can't trade for these guys and they aren't often drafted outside of the top 10 is draft your top players. 

1C, 1D (top goalies are generally drafted later so can be had most years).  Check.

 

It's certainly easier to draft top support players high so you do that while you can but keep in mind that there's probably a 5 year window when you hang on to your 1st rounders religiously because the core of top teams need to have similar ages.  Outside of that 5 year window, is there really anything wrong with trading first round picks for top 6 or top 4 players who are the right age?  An asset is an asset.

 

Keep in mind that the success rate when drafting is less than 100%.  You are drafting 18 year olds who clearly have a lot of growing up to do physically and more importantly, mentally

top 5 picks      96%

6-10                78%

rest of 1st       63%

2nd                 31%

3rd                  28%

4th                  19%

5th                  14%

6th                  14%

7th                  12%

 

And when you use a draft pick to trade for a player on an active roster, the success rate is pretty close to 100%.  There's the risk that the player is as good as you thought and whether the player fits with your team.  It's not completely without risk but it is substantially less.

 

Benning has assembled a core and a pretty good one that has all of the key components.  Drafted are 1C, 2C, Sniper, 1D, Goalie.  Trades or free agents 2D.  There's a lot of debate over what a core really is.  I have argued that the previous core was Sedin and Sedin and that's it.  That core didn't have a 1D.  Who cares where the rest of the group comes from

 

[4petesake]

12 minutes ago, Crabcakes said:

The way I see it, every team is given 7 assets to play with every season and they can use those assets and the present roster to maintain or improve the squad.  It's a fools errand to get hung up on exercising draft picks at the draft table.

 

What you must do while rebuilding and drafting high, because you can't trade for these guys and they aren't often drafted outside of the top 10 is draft your top players. 

1C, 1D (top goalies are generally drafted later so can be had most years).  Check.

 

It's certainly easier to draft top support players high so you do that while you can but keep in mind that there's probably a 5 year window when you hang on to your 1st rounders religiously because the core of top teams need to have similar ages.  Outside of that 5 year window, is there really anything wrong with trading first round picks for top 6 or top 4 players who are the right age?  An asset is an asset.

 

Keep in mind that the success rate when drafting is less than 100%.  You are drafting 18 year olds who clearly have a lot of growing up to do physically and more importantly, mentally

top 5 picks      96%

6-10                78%

rest of 1st       63%

2nd                 31%

3rd                  28%

4th                  19%

5th                  14%

6th                  14%

7th                  12%

 

And when you use a draft pick to trade for a player on an active roster, the success rate is pretty close to 100%.  There's the risk that the player is as good as you thought and whether the player fits with your team.  It's not completely without risk but it is substantially less.

 

Benning has assembled a core and a pretty good one that has all of the key components.  Drafted are 1C, 2C, Sniper, 1D, Goalie.  Trades or free agents 2D.  There's a lot of debate over what a core really is.  I have argued that the previous core was Sedin and Sedin and that's it.  That core didn't have a 1D.  Who cares where the rest of the group comes from

 

I came across this graph which adds to what you are saying regarding draft picks.

 

 

[Patel Bure]

On 7/27/2021 at 10:52 AM, RU SERIOUS said:

While watching Donnie & Dhali yesterday, it was mentioned that Jim B has apparently given away 23 draft picks so far under his reign.   The question now becomes; Can the Canucks build up a strong enough organization to win a cup with this approach or, will the short term rewards gained by trading away all these draft picks leave us short and in an eternal "sloppy-second place" type finishes and ongoing retooling/rebuilding due to always being short a few assets in the cupboard?

What Donnie and Dhaliwal are failing to take into account is that many of our picks and prospects have converted to the NHL at a more efficient level than most other teams.....and this hasn’t just been first round picks by the way:

 

xxx-Pettersson-Boeser

Hoglander-Horvat-xxx

xxx-xxx-Podkolzin

xxx-xxx-xxx

 

xxx

 

xxx-xxx
Hughes-xxx

Rathbone-xxx

 

Juolevi

 

Demko

xxx

 

-Miller and Garland were brought with two 1st rounders.

-Motte was brought in via a 3rd rounder

-Pearson was basically brought in from a 1st, 2nd, and 4th

-Guys like Gaudette, Virtanen, Baertschi, Granlund, and Tryamkin all played Atleast a full season with us.

Like many hockey pundits, Donnie and Dhaliwal don’t seem to understand that a team can’t primarily be built on picks and prospects.  More times than not, these incoming prospects need to be surrounded by the right vets to insulate and nurture their development.

 

All teams go through a rebuild and the Canucks are of no exception:

 

2015: 1st Round

2016:  dnq 

2017: dnq

2018: dnq

2019: dnq

2020: 2nd round

2021: dnq

2022-####:  We should be a playoff team from here on out thanks to the promising young core that we’ve developed......in all the key positions:

 

1C:  Pettersson

2C:  Horvat

1D:  Hughes

2D: Rathbone and/or Juolevi

LW: Hoglander

RW:  Garland, Boeser, Podkolzin

G:  Demko

BG: Dipietro

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Patel Bure

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Patel Bure said:

What Donnie and Dhaliwal are failing to take into account is that many of our picks and prospects have converted to the NHL at a more efficient level than most other teams.....and this hasn’t just been first round picks by the way:

 

xxx-Pettersson-Boeser

Hoglander-Horvat-xxx

xxx-xxx-Podkolzin

xxx-xxx-xxx

 

xxx

 

xxx-xxx
Hughes-xxx

Rathbone-xxx

 

Juolevi

 

Demko

xxx

 

-Miller and Garland were brought with two 1st rounders.

-Motte was brought in via a 3rd rounder

-Pearson was basically brought in from a 1st, 2nd, and 4th

-Guys like Gaudette, Virtanen, Baertschi, Granlund, and Tryamkin all played Atleast a full season with us.

Like many hockey pundits, Donnie and Dhaliwal don’t seem to understand that a team can’t primarily be built on picks and prospects.  More times than not, these incoming prospects need to be surrounded by the right vets to insulate and nurture their development.

 

All teams go through a rebuild and the Canucks are of no exception:

 

2015: 1st Round

2016:  dnq 

2017: dnq

2018: dnq

2019: dnq

2020: 2nd round

2021: dnq

2022-####:  We should be a playoff time from here on out.

 

 

Tampa just won two Cups, and of their D only Hedman was a guy they drafted.  Their core, like us, was drafted, but the supporting cast were all acquired via trade and UFA.  

[Patel Bure]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Tampa just won two Cups, and of their D only Hedman was a guy they drafted.  Their core, like us, was drafted, but the supporting cast were all acquired via trade and UFA.  

Any fan should study the Tampa Bay from 2004-2021 to truly understand what rebuilding truly entails.  Tampa is living proof that progression isn’t always a linear process and that ups and downs with personnel changes are to be expected.  
 

Colorado from 2007 onwards is also a strong case study.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Patel Bure said:

Any fan should study the Tampa Bay from 2004-2021 to truly understand what rebuilding truly entails.  Tampa is living proof that progression isn’t always a linear process and that ups and downs with personnel changes are to be expected.  
 

Colorado from 2007 onwards is also a strong case study.

Yup.  The core pieces need to be really great, obviously, and then the supporting guys need to be really good too.  

Like you point out we have drafted a great young core.  Then Benning, in a variety of ways, has added really good support players.  

[Patel Bure]

6 hours ago, Alflives said:

Miller or that Machmuldin guy.

Garland, OEL, dumping three toxic contracts or that Geunther guy.

 

Have to be a complete and utter moron, imbecile, and idiot to think these are not HUGE WINS for us.  

 

Yep, you nailed it.  
 

To add to this, Garland is pretty much the equivalent of a 9OA anyways (if his play in Arizona was of any indication).

 

Look at it from another perspective.   In a redraft, where do our draft picks go:

 

2013:  Horvat = 5th overall pick
2014:  Demko = Top 15 1st round pick.  Virtanen = 4th round pick.

2015:   Boeser = Top 10 1st round pick

2016:  Juolevi = 3rd round pick.

2017: Pettersson = 2nd overall pick; Jack Rathbone = 1st round pick 

2018:  Hughes = Top 3 overall pick

2019:  Podkolzin = Top 7 overall pick.  Hoglander = 1st round pick

 

 

So again - my advice to Donny and Dhaliwal would be to 

 

1) Quit trolling in order to boost their ratings.

2) Consider the other side of the coin.

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Patel Bure

[Alflives]

Just now, Patel Bure said:

Yep, you nailed it.  
 

To add to this, Garland is pretty much the equivalent of a 9OA anyways (if his play in Arizona was of any indication).

 

Look at it from another perspective.   In a redraft, where do our draft picks go:

 

2013:  Horvat = 5th overall pick
2014:  Demko = Top 15 1st round pick.  Virtanen = 4th round pick.

2015:   Boeser = Top 10 1st round pick

2016:  Juolevi = 3rd round pick.

2017: Pettersson = 2nd overall pick; Jack Rathbone = 1st round pick 

2018:  Hughes = Top 3 overall pick

2019:  Podkolzin = Top 7 overall pick.  Hoglander = 1st round pick

 

So again - my advice to Donny and Dhaliwal would be to 

 

1) Quit trolling in order to boost their ratings.

2) Consider the other side of the coin.

 

Jimbo has done a really good job filling in the supporting cast through draft, trade, and free agency.

 

Miller, Pearson, Garland, Hogs, Pods, Motte, Sutter, Mac, Lockwood, Gads, Highmore

OEL, Myers, Hamonic, Bone, Poolman, OJ, Schenn, Hunt, Woo, Brisbois.

Halak, Dipietro

 

And I'm for sure missing some younger guys.  

 

[ShawnAntoski]

Didn't read the threads; but JB & company has figured out that the 5th to 7th rounds are where legends are created and will continue to trade overhyped lottery tickets to clean up past mistakes and bypass the traditional approach of player development. 

 

Kidding aside (?), Trades & FA is the owners' preferred method of roster building - so the fans, better get used to reading about (hyped up) late round gems; and hoping JB continues his draft mojo.  Overall, I dont really blame this approach (for now) cause JB has drafted a young core and he (also) wants to be competitive with this young core rather than trading them away for futures to make a run with the next young core due to some set internal time line being employed/followed.  It is an exciting time to be a Canuck fan right now; although, I don't really like the Canucks trading finite picks for the present cause it voids the team of cheap & talented depth to compensate for the high salaried players - but I do get the logic of competing with this young core.  It seems like a familiar version of the Gillis era - but JB has the added ability to hit on draft picks (even in the late rounds).

Edited August 1, 2021 by ShawnAntoski