Elias Pettersson | Quinn Hughes - Contract Discussion Thread

[JM_]

On 7/2/2021 at 9:21 PM, The Lock said:

And?

 

Explain your stats and your position otherwise you've proven nothing. There's literally percentages in favour of both but no words from you means nothing to me. And don't just say 1 or 2 percentages are better than the other. Please explain why those percentages are most important compared with other stuff, including the eye ball test.

 

Also keep in mind that I don't believe in a lot of the advanced stats out there so you're going to have to convince me that it's a legit reason to think that Chychrun's actually better. Also, if you don't want to that's fine, but if will not have convinced me.

 

Sorry, but I hate it when people just post up picture thinking they've "proven something" when in actual fact they've proven nothing since they have like... not even said a word. It clearly defines the people who actually know how to debate from the people who don't.

All the "WAR" stuff tells you is out of context info. AZ and Vancouver had very different years, very different team experiences. Our year was a train wreck, of course Quinn's numbers are going to look bad. 

 

The only real piece of info there is Chychurun plays on the PK and is probably good at it. So thats a skill objectively Quinn doesn't have yet.

 

But you'd also know this by watching the games. I find most of the "stats" like this don't tell you anything you wouldn't already know by watching the games, but it also is misleading because its all in isolation of the context of the year the team had. 

 

It doesn't tell you why a player had a good or bad year, or if a player would be a good fit on one team vs another, anything about the coaching style, etc. Not particularly useful stuff imo.

 

E.g., if you did a WAR graph on Toffoli on this regular season vs. the playoffs, you'd look at the regular season one and think he'd dominate, but thats not the case in the playoffs. The WAR chart would not have predicted that and told you nothing useful. 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2021 by Jimmy McGill

[UKNuck96]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

All the "WAR" stuff tells you is out of context info. AZ and Vancouver had very different years, very different team experiences. Our year was a train wreck, of course Quinn's numbers are going to look bad. 

 

The only real piece of info there is Chychurun plays on the PK and is probably good at it. So thats a skill objectively Quinn doesn't have yet.

 

But you'd also know this by watching the games. I find most of the "stats" like this don't tell you anything you wouldn't already know by watching the games, but it also is misleading because its all in isolation of the context of the year the team had. 

 

 

And that’s how you know people who use data regularly. For those people the question isn’t x persons stats are bad it’s why are the stats bad. Good analytics tells a story not just the figures 

[JM_]

7 minutes ago, UKNuck96 said:

And that’s how you know people who use data regularly. For those people the question isn’t x persons stats are bad it’s why are the stats bad. Good analytics tells a story not just the figures 

Thats why teams are building analytics departments, if they can actually figure out proprietary ways to get to "why" we'll never see it in a public document. 

 

I still remember the good old days when people would beat each other over the head with one corsi stat 

[UKNuck96]

2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Thats why teams are building analytics departments, if they can actually figure out proprietary ways to get to "why" we'll never see it in a public document. 

 

I still remember the good old days when people would beat each other over the head with one corsi stat 

Still happens on here, people like to play top trumps with stats without understanding the context. It’s why @oldnews generally is spot on as he doesn’t base his comments on a single stat but on a grouping that tries to bring context to the point he is making. 

[Bertuzzipunch]

Peteys deal will be done before he becomes a RFA right?

[Alflives]

Just now, Bertuzzipunch said:

Peteys deal will be done before he becomes a RFA right?

When does Petey become an RFA?  

[Gawdzukes]

2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Thats why teams are building analytics departments, if they can actually figure out proprietary ways to get to "why" we'll never see it in a public document. 

 

I still remember the good old days when people would beat each other over the head with one corsi stat 

It's pretty funny watching these guys trump out all of these stats and try to make claims like this guy is a better forward but when you actually look into it really this guy just chipped the puck in 3 more times over 60 mins and we gained possession twice because once a guy fell down, and on the other the guys stick broke but hey we're 58% more likely to score when player A is on the ice or some similar bs.

 

Until they actually start recording data in the way these guys try to use it it'll be pretty useless without context. In reality you still have to watch the player and see how they are playing the game in order to generate these stats.

[Bertuzzipunch]

6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

When does Petey become an RFA?  

July 28

[shiznak]

3 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

All the "WAR" stuff tells you is out of context info. AZ and Vancouver had very different years, very different team experiences. Our year was a train wreck, of course Quinn's numbers are going to look bad. 

 

The only real piece of info there is Chychurun plays on the PK and is probably good at it. So thats a skill objectively Quinn doesn't have yet.

 

But you'd also know this by watching the games. I find most of the "stats" like this don't tell you anything you wouldn't already know by watching the games, but it also is misleading because its all in isolation of the context of the year the team had. 

 

It doesn't tell you why a player had a good or bad year, or if a player would be a good fit on one team vs another, anything about the coaching style, etc. Not particularly useful stuff imo.

 

E.g., if you did a WAR graph on Toffoli on this regular season vs. the playoffs, you'd look at the regular season one and think he'd dominate, but thats not the case in the playoffs. The WAR chart would not have predicted that and told you nothing useful. 

 

 

The original argument from the poster was Quinn is “a miles better” than Chychrun in offense. Which isn’t the case based on Chychrun’s even strength offense percentage. The only time Quinn was better at offense was on the man-advantage. 
 

 

Edited July 4, 2021 by shiznak

[JM_]

1 hour ago, Gawdzukes said:

It's pretty funny watching these guys trump out all of these stats and try to make claims like this guy is a better forward but when you actually look into it really this guy just chipped the puck in 3 more times over 60 mins and we gained possession twice because once a guy fell down, and on the other the guys stick broke but hey we're 58% more likely to score when player A is on the ice or some similar bs.

 

Until they actually start recording data in the way these guys try to use it it'll be pretty useless without context. In reality you still have to watch the player and see how they are playing the game in order to generate these stats.

McPhee stated once that most analytics publicly available are not of much use. 

 

Its just not baseball, its just too difficult to paper over that stats approach to hockey. I do think with really detailed physical tracking of players and pucks we might then get into some useful stats, but it will have to somehow account for coaching styles too. 

Edited July 4, 2021 by Jimmy McGill

[JM_]

1 hour ago, shiznak said:

The original argument from the poster was Quinn is “a miles better” than Chychrun in offense. Which isn’t the case based on Chychrun’s even strength offense percentage. The only time Quinn was better at offense was on the man-advantage. 
 

 

they are so different stylistically I'm not sure how anyone can say one is much better than the other right now. 

[Viper007]

On 7/4/2021 at 10:38 AM, shiznak said:

The original argument from the poster was Quinn is “a miles better” than Chychrun in offense. Which isn’t the case based on Chychrun’s even strength offense percentage. The only time Quinn was better at offense was on the man-advantage. 
 

 

QH is "miles better" than Chychrun in offense.  

 

Jakob Chychrun Career Stats

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FO%
Career	-	290	46	75	121	-26	171	16	36	0	0	6	1	630	7.3	--
2016-2017	ARI	68	7	13	20	-14	47	1	2	0	0	0	0	86	8.14	0
2017-2018	ARI	50	4	10	14	2	16	2	4	0	0	1	0	102	3.92	0
2018-2019	ARI	53	5	15	20	-12	28	3	8	0	0	0	0	117	4.27	0
2019-2020	ARI	63	12	14	26	4	38	5	8	0	0	2	0	149	8.1	0
2020-2021	ARI	56	18	23	41	-6	42	5	14	0	0	3	1	176	10.2	0

 

Quinn Hughes Career Stats

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FO%
Career	-	129	11	86	97	-34	46	3	46	0	0	2	1	230	4.8	--
2018-2019	VAN	5	0	3	3	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	6	0	0
2019-2020	VAN	68	8	45	53	-10	22	3	25	0	0	2	1	126	6.3	0
2020-2021	VAN	56	3	38	41	-24	22	0	19	0	0	0	0	98	3.1	0

 

 

So in his 2nd "full" season Chychrun has 14 points.  Compared to QH's 2nd "full" season with 41 points.

 

Start comparing similar stats instead of comparing year 5 vs only year 2.  If QH was 5 full seasons in the NHL, his stats will look much different. 

[Kurgom]

6 hours ago, Viper007 said:

 

So in his 2nd "full" season Chychrun has 14 points.  Compared to QH's 2nd "full" season with 41 points.

 

Start comparing similar stats instead of comparing year 5 vs only year 2.  If QH was 5 full seasons in the NHL, his stats will look much different. 

I think Vancouver fans are a bit confused on what they have with Hughes.

 

Hughes is a caliber of Defenseman we've never really had before. Ohlund, Jovo, Bieksa, Ehrhoff, Lume, his ceiling is above that, he has the potential to become an all-time great in the position, something we've never had. People like Pettersson and Bo but when other teams look at the Canucks, Hughes is our most valuable piece by far. 

[shiznak]

7 hours ago, Viper007 said:

QH is "miles better" than Chychrun in offense.  

 

Jakob Chychrun Career Stats

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FO%
Career	-	290	46	75	121	-26	171	16	36	0	0	6	1	630	7.3	--
2016-2017	ARI	68	7	13	20	-14	47	1	2	0	0	0	0	86	8.14	0
2017-2018	ARI	50	4	10	14	2	16	2	4	0	0	1	0	102	3.92	0
2018-2019	ARI	53	5	15	20	-12	28	3	8	0	0	0	0	117	4.27	0
2019-2020	ARI	63	12	14	26	4	38	5	8	0	0	2	0	149	8.1	0
2020-2021	ARI	56	18	23	41	-6	42	5	14	0	0	3	1	176	10.2	0

 

Quinn Hughes Career Stats

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FO%
Career	-	129	11	86	97	-34	46	3	46	0	0	2	1	230	4.8	--
2018-2019	VAN	5	0	3	3	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	6	0	0
2019-2020	VAN	68	8	45	53	-10	22	3	25	0	0	2	1	126	6.3	0
2020-2021	VAN	56	3	38	41	-24	22	0	19	0	0	0	0	98	3.1	0

 

 

So in his 2nd "full" season Chychrun has 14 points.  Compared to QH's 2nd "full" season with 41 points.

 

Start comparing similar stats instead of comparing year 5 vs only year 2.  If QH was 5 full seasons in the NHL, his stats will look much different. 

It’s easier to look at stats without actually context. Arizona was 2nd last in the league, in goals for that year. It’s obvious that your point total isn’t going to look great, if your team isn’t good at offense. Case in point, Quinn’s point total this year compare to last year. The Canucks were 10th last year, compared to 23th this year. Furthermore, you can also argue that the reason Quinn’s point total are so high is because almost more than half of them come on the man-advantage. Whereas, only 30% of Chychrun’s points are on the PP.

 

Look I’m not discrediting Hughes as an excellent point producer. I just think some who don’t see Chychrun play enough, only look at the stat sheets and think he’s not great at creating offense. Which isn’t the case.

[Gurn]

Any one have a split of ice time; how much each plays pp and pk, then who gets the harder defensive assignments?

 

More data can render a better opinion.

[Googlie]

Or take the post season bubble stats ...

 

Chychrun:  9 games, 1 goal, 0 assists

 

Hughes: 17 games, 2 goals, 14 assists

[higgyfan]

 

Chychrun and Hughes are not comparable players; they play very different styles.  Besides, it's early days in their careers, so there is no way to determine their top end.

 

One thing I can say, is that I would love it if the Canucks had an RD of Chychrun's age and calibre as Quinn's partner!

[Viper007]

14 hours ago, shiznak said:

It’s easier to look at stats without actually context. Arizona was 2nd last in the league, in goals for that year. It’s obvious that your point total isn’t going to look great, if your team isn’t good at offense. Case in point, Quinn’s point total this year compare to last year. The Canucks were 10th last year, compared to 23th this year. Furthermore, you can also argue that the reason Quinn’s point total are so high is because almost more than half of them come on the man-advantage. Whereas, only 30% of Chychrun’s points are on the PP.

 

Look I’m not discrediting Hughes as an excellent point producer. I just think some who don’t see Chychrun play enough, only look at the stat sheets and think he’s not great at creating offense. Which isn’t the case.

But if Chychrun is as good offensively as you say, shouldn't he have produced more points on the PP that year?  Canucks were 10th on the PP that year because of QH, and others.  This past season you can't really compare because the teams played against the same opponents over and over again, instead of the whole league, like in a normal season.  

[shiznak]

20 hours ago, Viper007 said:

But if Chychrun is as good offensively as you say, shouldn't he have produced more points on the PP that year?  Canucks were 10th on the PP that year because of QH, and others.  This past season you can't really compare because the teams played against the same opponents over and over again, instead of the whole league, like in a normal season.  

Chychrun wasn’t even a mainstay on the PP that year. He only played 138 minutes, while Hughes had over 250 minutes. Chychrun also didn’t have the luxury of playing with Pettersson, Miller, Horvat and Boeser. The best offensive threat the Coyotes had was Hall, who wasn’t on the team at the beginning of the year. The next best player was Schmaltz with 45 points. In perspective, he would have been tied with Pearson on our team in points. 
 

I only compared their production this year, because both team struggled on offense. Yet, Chychrun had breakout year, in goals and points. If Chychrun had more offensive help, there’s no doubt in my mind, he would be a 50+ points defensemen.

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Chychrun wasn’t even a mainstay on the PP that year. He only played 138 minutes, while Hughes had over 250 minutes. Chychrun also didn’t have the luxury of playing with Pettersson, Miller, Horvat and Boeser. The best offensive threat the Coyotes had was Hall, who wasn’t on the team at the beginning of the year. The next best player was Schmaltz with 45 points. In perspective, he would have been tied with Pearson on our team in points. 
 

I only compared their production this year, because both team struggled on offense. Yet, Chychrun had breakout year, in goals and points. If Chychrun had more offensive help, there’s no doubt in my mind, he would be a 50+ points defensemen.

Chychrun is Bowmeister.  He’s an okay player, but nothing special.