[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[Kanukfanatic]

20 hours ago, DontMessMe said:

Its possible for next season to be worse. Hughes may have sophomore slump, Markstrom, toffoli, tanev may be gone. JT miller had a career year and is bound to slow down (not saying he will have a bad season), we could run into many injury trouble. Who knows... 

Its probable the Canucks will be better next season with young stars gaining experience and hopefully the Canucks dropping some dead weight like Loui in a buyout.

Edited May 30, 2020 by Kanukfanatic

[JustABandwagoner]

Just now, Kanukfanatic said:

Its probably the Canucks will be better next season with young stars gaining experience and hopefully the Canucks dropping some dead weight like Loui in a buyout.

Injuries. Pettersson, and Hughes didnt have a long term injury this year. Who knows that might happen. What about Markstrom. Lets say he re-signs but he gets a season ending injury. Nobody knows. 

[Chris12345]

14 hours ago, DontMessMe said:

I THINK we can sign Markstrom and Toffoli. But Tanev and Stetch are 100% gone. No money for them. 

I think Toffoli walks. No facts around that whatsoever. Gotta be careful with that signing. I wouldn't want to overpay.

[JustABandwagoner]

42 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

I think Toffoli walks. No facts around that whatsoever. Gotta be careful with that signing. I wouldn't want to overpay.

I hope we can get a compliance buyout for Loui Eriksson. Tbh I think benning has done a FANTASTIC job in resigning our own players but is GOD DAMN AWFUL on July 1st. Someone needs to take his phone away from him on July 1st. 

[The Colt 45s]

Fifty years of disappointments leaves room for a lot of pessimism.  Best case it all works out.  Worst case, knock on wood, we have seen a lot of hockey.

 

Edited May 30, 2020 by The Colt 45s

[Where's Wellwood]

Canucks still own the 2020 1st rounder for now

 

 

[DeNiro]

1 hour ago, Where's Wellwood said:

Canucks still own the 2020 1st rounder for now

 

 

Pretty much what I assumed but nice to see it official.

 

Win-win for the Canucks. We lose the play in we get a potential lotto pick. We win and our young guys get some playoff experience.

[Drakrami]

On 5/29/2020 at 4:43 AM, Timbermen said:

 

 

 

More well aged Lindberger.

Can you do something similar for the Eriksson/Gudbranson thread so we are more unbiased here? Miller's been awesome though. 

[Smashian Kassian]

On 5/28/2020 at 1:40 PM, Timbermen said:

 

 

 

These posts aged well.

 

Tough look 

[Darkstar]

On 5/28/2020 at 1:40 PM, Timbermen said:

 

 

 

These posts aged well.

If Toffoli walks on July 1st and/or the Canucks don't make a deep run in the playoffs, this is an absolute disaster of a trade. Still way too early to assess this deal.

[JustABandwagoner]

11 hours ago, Darkstar said:

If Toffoli walks on July 1st and/or the Canucks don't make a deep run in the playoffs, this is an absolute disaster of a trade. Still way too early to assess this deal.

Thats the price u pay for 10 amazing games of Toffoli ;P

 

[Provost]

I don't think you can close the door on how the trade worked out and start pulling up old posts from people and dancing around (which is kind of a douche move regardless, since people don't pull up all the posts they were wrong about).  At the time the consensus in the hockey world was that it looked like a risky trade,  Now it is looking really good, but it still has every chance of looking bad again by the time all is said and done.

I cringed a lot myself when I hear the price for Miller, an unprotected 1st round pick plus a 3rd round pick was a steep price for a guy that had never hit 60 points in a season... having one possibly be a lottery pick is downright scary, and we are still faced with that.

If we lose the play in round this year and end up with a 15th overall pick we keep that, but then Markstrom (if he is still here) doesn't stand on his head next season, or we can't afford to re-sign a decent defence we are likely a bottom 5 team next year with a really good shot at a top 3 pick.  Having Miller is not worth a top 3 pick that could be another franchise cornerstone for a decade to come, the 2021 draft is full of top end D prospects that would fill a deep organizational need.

At the time of the trade when the dust settled and the shock of trading away an unprotected 1st round pick settled, I said we win the trade for sure if it ends up being a late 1st round pick, we may or may not win if it is a mid round pick, and lose if it is a top 10 pick.

Miller has outperformed expectations this season and has probably made even a mid 1st round pick a win for us.   Hopefully he can keep that kind of pace.

If we have a bad season next year, in June 2021 I would still rather have a top ten pick than a 28 year old winger with just two years of club control left.  If Miller just had a career year and goes back to his career average production for the rest of his contract, that also colours how the trade will be looked at.  If we don't win anything in the time we have him, that also puts into question whether Benning just misjudged how close the team was and makes trading futures away a bad idea.

Still way too early to put this one to bed.

Edited June 2, 2020 by Provost

[The Lock]

I almost picture every trade thread on the forum as having 1 microscope zoomed in way too close into some UFC match with everyone pushing and shoving trying to decide who won the match.

 

Yeah I'm weird.

[Kanukfanatic]

On 6/1/2020 at 12:25 AM, Darkstar said:

If Toffoli walks on July 1st and/or the Canucks don't make a deep run in the playoffs, this is an absolute disaster of a trade. Still way too early to assess this deal.

If Toffoli is part of an underdog Canuck team that wins the Stanley Cup in September in a weird year then this is an absolute steal of a trade!!

 

Yeah...we can all play the IF game.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Kanukfanatic

[grandmaster]

This trade was the best trade the Canucks have done in over a decade.
 

Miller is literally the Canucks MVP (next to Marky). Canucks would not be anywhere near being as good with out him. 
 

Great cap hit on his contract - yes

Young player in his prime - yes

Top Point producer on the team - yes

Defensively reliable - yes

Physical presence - yes

Leader on and off the ice - yes

 

All for a late round first who may or may not even turn pro. 
 

Yes people. This is the best trade I’ve seen the Canucks do in a very long time.

Edited June 8, 2020 by grandmaster

[Johnny Torts]

everyone, it starts on page 9

[apollo]

You know how they say there's no jail time for white collar crimes? 

 

Well Jim Benning is lucky he committed a white collar crime. 

 

This might be the biggest rob job in the history of sports. 

 

Long live JT THRILLER! 

 

[Phil_314]

On 6/17/2020 at 12:14 PM, Johnny Torts said:

everyone, it starts on page 9

I see what you mean now LOL

[Pete M]

On 6/8/2020 at 12:51 AM, grandmaster said:

This trade was the best trade the Canucks have done in over a decade.
 

Miller is literally the Canucks MVP (next to Marky). Canucks would not be anywhere near being as good with out him. 
 

Great cap hit on his contract - yes

Young player in his prime - yes

Top Point producer on the team - yes

Defensively reliable - yes

Physical presence - yes

Leader on and off the ice - yes

 

All for a late round first who may or may not even turn pro. 
 

Yes people. This is the best trade I’ve seen the Canucks do in a very long time.

without Miller this year, they would have been a lottery team....he is a very important player for the Canucks. Now, if they can resign Toffoli, then they will be contending soon enough....these two players are foundational players and they will be at the top of their game for the next 3 years...totally agree that we are in good hands with Miller and hopefully Toffoli

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

The Miller trade looks really good right now, but that doesn’t negate the fact that, on pure value, it was a questionable move at the time it was made.

 

Nobody, not Benning, nor the pro scouting staff, believed they were actually acquiring a >point per game player and team scoring leader in JT Miller. Based on the player value at the time, and the conditions (TBL cap issues, June trade market), the Canucks did overpay, or at least they paid at the very top end of what could be considered a reasonable price range for Miller.

 

It worked out really well, but that was by no means a guarantee, and I doubt even the most optimistic people in the room on that day in June 2019 were banking on Miller becoming the contributor he was for Vancouver in the 2019-20 season.

 

It’s a win right now, clearly. But will it still be a win if the first round pick turns into a HHOF level player? Would it be fair to judge the trade negatively if that first round pick vastly over-performs its expected value? Probably not. So is it fair to judge the trade a win after Miller over-performed his expected value? I guess it depends on how you want to look at things.

 

For me, the question is whether or not it was a win when Benning paid what was almost universally considered a very steep price for Miller? Even if Benning and the Canucks’ pro scouts knew they were getting 2019-20 JT Miller, was it a good decision to pay top end/higher than market value at the time? Could the trade have still been made if the Canucks has offered less? Based on the values and conditions on the day the trade was made, did Benning get the best deal he could?

 

Maybe that all sounds nitpicky, and I admit, it kinda is. I really don’t care any more about the valuations in June of 2019. The player we have today in JT Miller is well worth the price that was paid. He’s worth significantly more than what was paid. It worked out really well, and I’m very happy the deal happened.

 

I was also very happy with the acquisition itself, when it happened. Really liked the player and believed Miller would be an excellent addition to the team. But I did question the price, based on the values at the time, and nothing that I’ve learned since the trade really changes that.

 

I guess I look at it this way: would it have been a great trade of the Canucks traded Jyrki Lumme in 1997-98 for a 1998 sixth round pick? Definitely not. But what if they drafted Datsyuk with that pick? Would it now be a legendary trade? Robbery? For me, the answer is no. Dumping Lumme for a very late pick would’ve been a bad trade. Doesn’t matter if you luck out with the pick. The trade is judged by the value at the time it’s made. 

(EDIT: Maybe Lumme is a bad example, since he wasn’t retained and was on an expiring contract, so getting something for him, rather than nothing, would possibly have been a good trade, especially in a losing season. But that doesn’t really change my point. )

 

With Miller, a lot of credit goes to Benning and the pro scouting staff for identifying a player in JT Miller who was a perfect fit for this lineup, and excellent target identification for and under-utilized/undervalued player with the potential to blossom in a larger role. And I do give them a lot of credit for this. It was a great addition and some very smart pro scouting.

 

But they also lucked out. They just did. Miller has outperformed their wildest dreams. I just can’t give them credit for “knowing” that he’d come in and score 72 points in 69 games, because they just didn’t.

 

Benning paid a steep price. Almost certainly more than he needed to, to get the deal done. It worked out, but the cost was high, and this created more risk than was absolutely necessary, in terms of the value of the assets involved (based on the June 2019 market). This really hasn’t changed for me.

 

Do I really care? 
 

Nope.

 

Love JT Miller. And I really don’t give a flying **** any more about about the assets that were sacrificed to acquire him. He’s already proven to be well worth the cost (even if it was an overpayment at the time). 

Edited June 29, 2020 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME
Autocorrect messing with me